Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo (Game 4/4)

[Deadpool]

Twice he gets caught at home... Damn son.

[DigitalRock]

Wow crazy ending

[gruber92]

Tough final play.

[Ex Player]

Did the 3B coach wave Gurriel home??

 

3 out of 4 though from Orioles though, I'm happy

[Jaysareus]

That may have been the worst sending of a runner ever

[Orgfiller]

Luis f***ing Rivera strikes again. Gurriel was looking at him the whole way. It wasn't close, that's all on Rivera.

[saskjayfan]

If only we had Villar to pinch run.....nice AB by Rowdy none the less.

[BlueRocky]

I’ll take 3/4.

 

Bring on the Marlins & Red Sox

[Stangstag]

That may have been the worst sending of a runner ever

 

Did you see Jason Werth in the playoffs against the Dodgers that time?

[Stangstag]

Really should have won it in the 10th but ah well. Can’t win every game, the hitting wasn’t good today

[saskjayfan]

Luis f***ing Rivera strikes again. Gurriel was looking at him the whole way. It wasn't close, that's all on Rivera.

 

I honestly don't know how he is still employed.

[Captain Adama]

Really should have won it in the 10th but ah well. Can’t win every game, the hitting wasn’t good today

 

It's one thing to lose soundly. This was a game we should have won.

[saskjayfan]

It's one thing to lose soundly. This was a game we should have won.

 

Our 2 runs were unearned.

[EdwinsParrot]

Tough way to end it.

 

Cant really be mad a 3/4 though. Just keep winning series.

[Stangstag]

It's one thing to lose soundly. This was a game we should have won.

 

Was it really though? They were 0 for 10 with RISP before the 10th inning

[BlueRocky]

Disgusting splitter.

[jerb]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

Charlie Montoyo says that Chase Anderson’s pitch count was 90, which is why he was taken out. #BlueJays

[Stangstag]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

Charlie Montoyo says that Chase Anderson’s pitch count was 90, which is why he was taken out. #BlueJays

 

Cool. f***ing moron

 

Am I missing something? Anderson’s last 2 starts he threw 79 and 85 pitches... and today he had 84 pitches thrown and he was grooving. He couldn’t even start the inning and maybe get up to like 95 pitches??

[Brownie19]

Cool. f***ing moron

 

Am I missing something? Anderson’s last 2 starts he threw 79 and 85 pitches... and today he had 84 pitches thrown and he was grooving. He couldn’t even start the inning and maybe get up to like 95 pitches??

 

I'm not sure how you can call him a f***ing moron when you have no idea who's call that is. I've questioned this a few times...is it really Charlie, or is it the high performance team / FO making some of these calls.

 

You think Charlie is in charge of establishing pitch counts? like f***.

[Stangstag]

I'm not sure how you can call him a f***ing moron when you have no idea who's call that is. I've questioned this a few times...is it really Charlie, or is it the high performance team / FO making some of these calls.

 

You think Charlie is in charge of establishing pitch counts? like f***.

 

I think a lot more of these decisions are made by Charlie than what you’re thinking. How the hell did he get away with batting Biggio 8th and Jansen 3rd that time? Why is Roark allowed to pitch into the lineup a 3rd time but not Anderson? Why is Font constantly being used in high leverage situations? Why are they always bunting late in games?

 

These decisions ARE NOT coming from the front office

[Laika]

I think a lot more of these decisions are made by Charlie than what you’re thinking. How the hell did he get away with batting Biggio 8th and Jansen 3rd that time? Why is Roark allowed to pitch into the lineup a 3rd time but not Anderson? Why is Font constantly being used in high leverage situations? Why are they always bunting late in games?

 

These decisions ARE NOT coming from the front office

 

I would bet my nuts that most of them are. Maybe not the bunting.

 

This front office picked a pushover manager so they could run the team the way the front office wants to. It's hard to see the easy logic on some of the decisions but they are doing gory math that nobody here is smart enough to do.

 

For the Font following Anderson thing - keep in mind that the person who revealed the "RA Dickey Effect" to the world is an analyst with the team. If he figured that out in his free time seven years ago while in college, what kind of smart s*** is he figuring out when he's getting paid to do it? It's not random that Font is following Anderson. I mean it might be, but I don't assume it is.

 

They also have an analyst who was at the forefront of using pitch level data to estimate ERA talent. As in, if you had data from a couple of games and knew a pitcher's whiff rate, etc., you could get a better ERA estimator in a small sample than FIP or xFIP or SIERA. So many smart nerds in the front office. Any time the team acquires someone like Stripling or Chase Anderson or Hatch, I just assume they know something. Same should go for managerial decisions.

[Brownie19]

Everyone spooging over Hatch and s***ing on Font is probably due for a rude awakening.

 

Hatch has a 90.2 LOB% and a BABIP of .114, which is artificially leading to a lot of success early this year. He's the polar opposite of Font. Hatch's FIP, xFIP, K% and BB% are all worse than Font.

 

The season is so short that there may not be time for these stats to normalize, but there's still a decent chance that Font is better than Hatch from today through to the end of the season.

 

And just so we're clear - I love Hatch and kinda hate Font too.

[max silver]

Everyone spooging over Hatch and s***ing on Font is probably due for a rude awakening.

 

Hatch has a 90.2 LOB% and a BABIP of .114, which is artificially leading to a lot of success early this year. He's the polar opposite of Font. Hatch's FIP, xFIP, K% and BB% are all worse than Font.

 

The season is so short that there may not be time for these stats to normalize, but there's still a decent chance that Font is better than Hatch from today through to the end of the season.

 

And just so we're clear - I love Hatch and kinda hate Font too.

 

These two pitchers are a great example of the intrinsic flaw of the FIP/xFIP systems, in that other than home runs surrendered they do not sufficiently account for quality of contact in their formulations. Hatch has limited hard contact much more successfully than Font has so far. By Fangraphs Font has allowed 55% hard contact vs 38% for Hatch. Font has surrendered a 31% line drive rate vs 11% for Hatch. It's no surprise that Hatch has allowed fewer runs to score than Font.

[wilko]

The whole 100 pitch count max pisses me off. They will let a SP throw 70-90 pitches, put a reliever in there that will go 1-2 innings possibly throwing 40 pitches and go back out there in a day or 2. If the Jays didn't have a great pen the team would be f***ed.

[glory]

I can buy that pulling SPs early is above Buntoyo's pay grade. That is likely an upper management decision. Anyone who is dumb enough to bunt excessively and think Joe Panik is a good MLB player because he's "professional" definitely wouldn't be as 'analytical' with pulling pitchers as Charlie has been.

[Brownie19]

These two pitchers are a great example of the intrinsic flaw of the FIP/xFIP systems, in that other than home runs surrendered they do not sufficiently account for quality of contact in their formulations. Hatch has limited hard contact much more successfully than Font has so far. By Fangraphs Font has allowed 55% hard contact vs 38% for Hatch. Font has surrendered a 31% line drive rate vs 11% for Hatch. It's no surprise that Hatch has allowed fewer runs to score than Font.

 

That applies if you believe that controlling hard contact is a skill.

[max silver]

That applies if you believe that controlling hard contact is a skill.

 

I definitely think there is a skill element involved in contact suppression rather than fully assigning it to random chance. Ryu is one of the best examples of this. Besides, Hatch has an upper echelon spin rate that would very likely make his fastball hard to square up.

[Laika]

These two pitchers are a great example of the intrinsic flaw of the FIP/xFIP systems, in that other than home runs surrendered they do not sufficiently account for quality of contact in their formulations. Hatch has limited hard contact much more successfully than Font has so far. By Fangraphs Font has allowed 55% hard contact vs 38% for Hatch. Font has surrendered a 31% line drive rate vs 11% for Hatch. It's no surprise that Hatch has allowed fewer runs to score than Font.

 

"luck" is not just about bloopers falling in.

pitcher luck can also, in small samples, be about players hitting things hard at a rate that they normally wouldn't.

 

If a one-eyed midget hitter swung wildly ten times, in a large sample they might whiff 90% of the time. In ten swings they might hit four line drives. It's still luck.

 

Anyway, I do think Hatch is much better than Font.

[max silver]

"luck" is not just about bloopers falling in.

pitcher luck can also, in small samples, be about players hitting things hard at a rate that they normally wouldn't.

 

If a one-eyed midget hitter swung wildly ten times, in a large sample they might whiff 90% of the time. In ten swings they might hit four line drives. It's still luck.

 

Anyway, I do think Hatch is much better than Font.

 

If pitcher A is giving up line drives all over the field and allowing a run to score every inning while pitcher B is suppressing hard contact effectively while only allowing a single run to score every 9 innings, is there even any reason to debate which one has been more effective? I can see the small sample size of innings regressing in opposite directions for each pitcher, but it's silly to shrug our shoulders and completely assign random luck to the end results.

[Laika]

If pitcher A is giving up line drives all over the field and allowing a run to score every inning while pitcher B is suppressing hard contact effectively while only allowing a single run to score every 9 innings, is there even any reason to debate which one has been more effective? I can see the small sample size of innings regressing in opposite directions for each pitcher, but it's silly to shrug our shoulders and completely assign random luck to the end results.

 

There are all sorts of ERA estimators these days. Some use batted ball data, some don't. Different contexts call for different estimators.

 

You're basically asking how quickly batted ball statistics stabilize for pitchers. I think it's something like 80 balls in play for GB and FB rates but a very large number for LD rates.

 

You can also look at pitch level information though! I think Hatch's elite spin rate is a HUGE factor in favour of what he is doing.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Laika