Marlins vs. Blue Jays (game 1 out of 2)

[Jonn]

That was a gift

[Krylian]

Biggio got lucky

[saskjayfan]

wtf.....that was a horseshit call.

[Slade]

Biggio just doesn't give bad at bats, he got lucky there.

[Jonn]

Watch Alford steal home lol

[BigCecil]

FB Shaw. Please. Just get it deep enough. (That’s what she said)

[dineke]

this got dp written all over it s***

[Krylian]

GIDP in 3-2...

[Spanky99]

3 chances at a hit or a bunt with 0 outs? what are the numbers on that?

 

The RE is better with runner on 2nd with 0 outs, than a man on 3rd with 1 away.

[Jonn]

Please Shaw just in the air anywhere

[Krylian]

Hey what do you know... Shaw gets it done!

[EdwinsParrot]

gj shaw

[Jaysareus]

That's the ball game

[Carlos Danger]

They going to be tearing up some wings tonight in Buffalo!

[Spanky99]

Heyo... a walkoff! Yay!!!

[Slade]

Was really looking forward to seeing Yamaguchi

[5ToolPhenom]

Almost a catastrophe, but a win is all the same in the standings.

 

Nice resilience there, I'll take it!

[Jonn]

Was really looking forward to seeing Yamaguchi

 

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

[Ex Player]

I would keep Alford on the team for his speed alone

[glory]

Really have to sweep this series. A win is a win no matter how it happens.

[gruber92]

If Montoya doesn't use Romano tomorrow as the closer or in a high leverage situation after throwing 9 pitches tonight and the day off Thursday, then I don't know what to say. Hopefully the bats are alive and we have a blowout tomorrow with Pearson pitching 5 or 6 scoreless innings. Yamaguchi needs work.

[Stangstag]

The RE is better with runner on 2nd with 0 outs, than a man on 3rd with 1 away.

 

Im pretty sure the probability of scoring ONLY 1 run increases with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on second no outs.

 

It’s usually better to not bunt but if you’re the home team in extra innings it makes sense to bunt the runner to 3rd since you only need one run.

 

Someone correct me on this if im wrong

[Spanky99]

Im pretty sure the probability of scoring ONLY 1 run increases with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on second no outs.

 

It’s usually better to not bunt but if you’re the home team in extra innings it makes sense to bunt the runner to 3rd since you only need one run.

 

Someone correct me on this if im wrong

 

You're wrong.

 

The run expectancy for 'runner on 3rd, 1 out' is 0.865.

 

The run expectancy for 'runner on 2nd, 0 out is 1.068

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

[bones10]

Im pretty sure the probability of scoring ONLY 1 run increases with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on second no outs.

 

It’s usually better to not bunt but if you’re the home team in extra innings it makes sense to bunt the runner to 3rd since you only need one run.

 

Someone correct me on this if im wrong

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

[saskjayfan]

You're wrong.

 

The run expectancy for 'runner on 3rd, 1 out' is 0.865.

 

The run expectancy for 'runner on 2nd, 0 out is 1.068

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

 

You need to check the chance of scoring a run not total run expectancy. The link that bones posted(2010-105) shows you will score a a run 61% of the time with a runner at 2nd and no outs and 66% of the time with a runner at 3rd and one out. When you're the home team and a run will win it, the bunt isn't a bad play. If you're the away team and you're not sure if you need one run or 3 runs to win the game don't bunt.

[Spanky99]

You need to check the chance of scoring a run not total run expectancy. The link that bones posted(2010-105) shows you will score a a run 61% of the time with a runner at 2nd and no outs and 66% of the time with a runner at 3rd and one out. When you're the home team and a run will win it, the bunt isn't a bad play. If you're the away team and you're not sure if you need one run or 3 runs to win the game don't bunt.

 

No, no I don't have to check anything, RE24 for me. Bunting/giving away outs are stupid. It's already bit us in the ass one time this season, f*** that. Sure it works sometimes, but I'd rather be swinging away. Thanks, coach.

[Laika]

You need to check the chance of scoring a run not total run expectancy. The link that bones posted(2010-105) shows you will score a a run 61% of the time with a runner at 2nd and no outs and 66% of the time with a runner at 3rd and one out. When you're the home team and a run will win it, the bunt isn't a bad play. If you're the away team and you're not sure if you need one run or 3 runs to win the game don't bunt.

 

This is true, but you also need to factor in the chance that the bunt does not succeed. I assume that chance would drag the 66% down to the 61% range, if not worse. There is a non-zero chance that Jansen pops it up, right. So it's not just 61% vs 66%. There is say a ~5% chance (pop up, etc.) that the 61% chance to score a run becomes a 40% chance (runner on 2nd, one out).

 

I'm sure the complete math has been done somewhere online.

 

If Jansen has only a 5% chance to fail their "one run expectancy" is 64.685%

10% chance to fail it is 63.37%

20% chance to fail it is 60.74%

 

I think.

 

And, per this: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-truth-about-bunting/

MLB hitters only succeed at getting a committed bunt down fair 50% of the time. That means given two chances a typical player would get it down in play 75% of the time and fail 25% of the time. That's not good enough to bunt by the numbers!!!

Also, fair does not necessarily mean it's even good enough. Fair could mean a missile straight at the pitcher that doesn't allow the runner to advance.

Also, Danny Jansen is not even a practiced bunter.

 

I think we have the answer. Don't bunt in that situation unless the hitter is a good bunter.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Laika

[Spanky99]

This is true, but you also need to factor in the chance that the bunt does not succeed. I assume that chance would drag the 66% down to the 61% range, if not worse. There is a non-zero chance that Jansen pops it up, right. So it's not just 61% vs 66%. There is say a ~5% chance (pop up, etc.) that the 61% chance to score a run becomes a 40% chance (runner on 2nd, one out).

 

I'm sure the complete math has been done somewhere online.

 

Or the bunt attempts fail and the hitter's down in an 0-2 count, it's just not the right move.

[Jimcanuck]

This is true, but you also need to factor in the chance that the bunt does not succeed. I assume that chance would drag the 66% down to the 61% range, if not worse. There is a non-zero chance that Jansen pops it up, right. So it's not just 61% vs 66%. There is say a ~5% chance (pop up, etc.) that the 61% chance to score a run becomes a 40% chance (runner on 2nd, one out).

 

I'm sure the complete math has been done somewhere online.

 

So it depends on the ability of the guy at the plate to lay down a bunt.

[Laika]

So it depends on the ability of the guy at the plate to lay down a bunt.

 

Yes, but they need to obviously be an above average bunter. I expanded on the math above.