Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[BlueBaller]

This is a common misconception. Ruth was a fantastic athlete for most of his career. Most pictures and video are for his last few playing years when he was bloated from living large.

Yep. He was overweight but not severely. Vladdy is just obese.

[Boxcar]

Yep. He was overweight but not severely. Vladdy is just obese.

 

He didn't really get fat until he was a Yankee. And not for a few years.

 

[Krylian]

You need to compare athletes in an era with other athletes in that same era. 90 years ago I bet very few MLB players spent much time working out. Ruth fit right into that.

 

Today though? Vladdy does not fit into what the idea of an MLB athlete should be.

[5minutesforframing]

He was fat in the minors and he hit. Frank Thomas was fat and he hit. Cliff Johnson (ex Blue Jay) was fat and he hit. Babe Ruth was the fattest of them all and he hit.

 

Vlad is facing major league pitching - not a bunch of second rate scrubs who can't make it to the majors. He's facing guys with high 90s fastballs who can spot it and with some elite breaking balls. He can square up the mediocrities with a 91mph fastball right down the middle - but not 96mph with 10 inch movement followed up by guys who can throw wipe out sliders on the black.

 

He's still young but the problem is magnified when he has no positional value - at least Bichette can play competent defense so when he goes into a hitting drought - he still has some value. With Vlad - he's a one tool player - bat. If he is not hitting at a minimum of an .900OPS - he's not really useful. He needs to be putting up Manny Ramirez/Ortiz/Thomas/Carlos Delgado kind of numbers to live up to the hype as the greatest minor league hitter to walk the earth.

 

The hype led me to believe he would be better than Carlos Delgado. To be fair - if you look at Delgado in his age 21,22,23 seasons with the Jays the offensive numbers were crap. .509 OPS in his age 23 season (99Ab's).

 

So not the time to panic - but they could move him to 8th in the order to take some pressure off of him. Have Hernandez bat 3rd or 4th.

 

None of Thomas, Johnson or Ruth were fat as f*** at 20 years old.

[saskjayfan]

Yep. He was overweight but not severely. Vladdy is just obese.

 

This seems like the perfect time to get Vlad in the gym for 3 days outside of normal baseball activities and have him doing cardio till he drops. Give him Monday off. Show him what he should be doing in the off season.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm guessing most of the Ruth is fat myth comes from the John Goodman movie where they even had a fat kid from the little rascals lookalike play his orphanage days.

[max silver]

This seems like the perfect time to get Vlad in the gym for 3 days outside of normal baseball activities and have him doing cardio till he drops. Give him Monday off. Show him what he should be doing in the off season.

 

I don't get the idea he's lazy in the gym necessarily, it seems like more of his weight issues stem from his dietary choices. All the cardio in the world won't matter if you're still ingesting hundreds of calories beyond what your burning on a daily or even per meal basis.

[saskjayfan]

I don't get the idea he's lazy in the gym necessarily, it seems like more of his weight issues stem from his dietary choices. All the cardio in the world won't matter if you're still ingesting hundreds of calories beyond what your burning on a daily or even per meal basis.

 

Fair enough, but it could be a little of both. He's currently under team quarantine. Now is the perfect time to be working with him and monitoring his diet.

[polar bear]

Does he have another option? Playing for the Hot Dogs just might make him hungrier. Any chance theirs an Indy team named after Kale?

 

Lol. You’re probably right.

[BigCecil]

I take some solace in the fact that it wasn't until Delgado's 5th season of PAs did he put up a 122 wRC+. I remember him being on the cover of magazines and hitting the restaurant windows before being sent down. Failed OF experiment etc etc. He became an 135 wRC+ career bat.

 

No point sending Vlad down or trading him. But he has to be one of the most hyped prospects I've seen. It seems laughable right now they "honorarily" put him in the HR Derby. Maybe they need to take some pressure and focus off and move him down in the order?

 

All we saw in the minors stats was elite hard contact and great pitch selection and he has been the opposite so far. In some ABs, not even remotely competitive. Late on FBs missing them and chasing endless s*** out of the zone. I haven't looked at those numbers like I'm sure a lot of you have but that's what its looks like to the eye. The GB rate has become a punchline like his weight/diet.

 

He has negative D value so he has to rake. He only has 42 PAs 2020 and I need to be patient. Man, do we need this kid to find it badly.

[Olerud363]

Vladimir update August 8th 2020

 

One of his better games, 2 walks, eye of an eagle, one ground ball special to third, and an actual line drive hit hard to right center gap.

 

Interesting titbits - enthusiastically ran bases and chased pop-ups, neither was much of a success but he gave it a try, bouncing, floundering, full steam ahead.

 

Recommendations: Do not send to indy league yet. Send virtual scouts to tomorrow's game to see if he can hit another line drive and maybe improve popup fielding. If so delay decision to send to Indy league a few more days.

[BigCecil]

Vladimir update August 8th 2020

 

One of his better games, 2 walks, eye of an eagle, one ground ball special to third, and an actual line drive hit hard to right center gap.

 

Interesting titbits - enthusiastically ran bases and chased pop-ups, neither was much of a success but he gave it a try, bouncing, floundering, full steam ahead.

 

Recommendations: Do not send to indy league yet. Send virtual scouts to tomorrow's game to see if he can hit another line drive and maybe improve popup fielding. If so delay decision to send to Indy league a few more days.

 

LOL. That pop up and base running were cringe worthy and epically brutal. Even if he was fast (which he isn't) why make 1st out at 3B? This isn't hard. Glass half full I'll take yesterdays AB's as a positive.

[Deadpool]

In 4 games in August, he's batting .308, has more walks than Ks, and has a wRC+ of 194.

 

It's almost like sample sizes are things, since his bad July was only 7 games.

[Laika]

LOL. That pop up and base running were cringe worthy and epically brutal. Even if he was fast (which he isn't) why make 1st out at 3B? This isn't hard. Glass half full I'll take yesterdays AB's as a positive.

 

He's still learning how fat and slow he really is. Saw the throw go home and thought he was a swift young buck like Bo or Cavan and could dash into third.

[Laika]

In 4 games in August, he's batting .308, has more walks than Ks, and has a wRC+ of 194.

 

It's almost like sample sizes are things, since his bad July was only 7 games.

 

It has never really been a complaint about the results - people here aren't stupid. Everyone can recognize a puny sample size.

 

It has been about the approach and batted ball profile. He arguably hasn't driven a ball in August. Four hits: two groundball doubles, the double last night which he was late on and sliced to RF (did not drive it), and the double against Atlanta which you could say was driven to the wall but still kind of looked like he missed it and it just carried.

 

It's nice to see the plate discipline returning to the normal, 2019 levels but people are hoping for a lot more than 2019 Vlad. August Vlad just looks like 2019 Vlad. It's a start though!

 

Really we just want something to click for him at some point between now and the early part of 2021. I guess.

[BigCecil]

In 4 games in August, he's batting .308, has more walks than Ks, and has a wRC+ of 194.

 

It's almost like sample sizes are things, since his bad July was only 7 games.

 

560 PAs 104 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR. Could be worse.

[BlueRocky]

There’s been a clear improvement in his at-bats with a better plate approach. He’s getting a few more pitches to see, he’s getting into better counts, and occasionally produces a fly ball. That’s noteworthy improvement from the first couple games before his move to 5th in the batting order. It’s trending in the right direction.

 

Defensively he has played less than 3 weeks at first base, it’s going to be a learning process.

[Olerud363]

August 8th update

 

Another pretty good night, not at Fernando Tatis JR level, as far as generational prospects go but...

 

1. Hard line drive that took a great play to stop

2. A grounder but not pulled into the shift, bounced away from the shift and through

3. An opposite filed bullet?? Virtual scouting is hard, but I assume Shaw got thrown out because Vlad's bullet got to the rightfielder almost instantly. Vlad didn't get an RBI but he helped with the assist.

4. A popup. Looks like it went way up. Nice change from the grounders.

 

Verdict: Keep watching the kid. Don't send to Indy ball quite yet.

[Olerud363]

I didn't see the first two at bats but the second two were awful. Ground ball out on a ball 1 centimetre off the dirt.

 

The only reason the last at bat wasn't a ground ball out was because it bounced two feet in front of the plate so he struck out.

 

The approach is still really bad... yes he's had an OK few games... but these are his good games and he hasn't homered or hit many fly balls. Compare to Biggio, Bichette, Moreland over the last few games.

 

Hi arching fly balls, hard hit, chasing out fielders back, and a few over the fence. Those are good games.

 

Maybe Indy ball it should be.

[DigitalRock]

I didn't see the first two at bats but the second two were awful. Ground ball out on a ball 1 centimetre off the dirt.

 

The only reason the last at bat wasn't a ground ball out was because it bounced two feet in front of the plate so he struck out.

 

The approach is still really bad... yes he's had an OK few games... but these are his good games and he hasn't homered or hit many fly balls. Compare to Biggio, Bichette, Moreland over the last few games.

 

Hi arching fly balls, hard hit, chasing out fielders back, and a few over the fence. Those are good games.

 

Maybe Indy ball it should be.

 

It's worrisome, not the start anyone expected for Vlad.

[BlueRocky]

There's signs he's at least making progress

[Olerud363]

There's signs he's at least making progress

 

They are completely different physically but his numbers remind me a bit of a young John Olerud.

 

Olerud was super hyped, going from brain surgery to MLB skipping the minors, people compared him to Lou Gerhig and Ted Williams before he did anything. Then he was a .270 hitter with 15 homers for his first 3 years while Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzeles, Ken Griffey jr were all generational all stars at the same age, similar to how it seems everyone else (Fernando Tatis 8 HR cough) is becoming an instance star on day 1 and age 20 (Soto, Acuna and Avarez too).

 

Olerud's peak ended up being a .350 hitter with 50 doubles, 25 homers, 100 wallks. He did that twice. He had a bunch of other good seasons, and developed into a gold glove first basemen.

 

Still. Tatis is making it look so easy. Even Kieth Law didn't think this would happen. He thought Vlad would hit more than Tatis but Tatis would make up for it with defense and baserunning.

 

Tatis out OPSing Vlad 1.000 to .700 or whatever it is, is a bit painful.

[Spanky99]

They are completely different physically but his numbers remind me a bit of a young John Olerud.

 

Olerud was super hyped, going from brain surgery to MLB skipping the minors, people compared him to Lou Gerhig and Ted Williams before he did anything. Then he was a .270 hitter with 15 homers for his first 3 years while Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzeles, Ken Griffey jr were all generational all stars at the same age, similar to how it seems everyone else (Fernando Tatis 8 HR cough) is becoming an instance star on day 1 and age 20 (Soto, Acuna and Avarez too).

 

Olerud's peak ended up being a .350 hitter with 50 doubles, 25 homers, 100 wallks. He did that twice. He had a bunch of other good seasons, and developed into a gold glove first basemen.

 

Still. Tatis is making it look so easy. Even Kieth Law didn't think this would happen. He thought Vlad would hit more than Tatis but Tatis would make up for it with defense and baserunning.

 

Tatis out OPSing Vlad 1.000 to .700 or whatever it is, is a bit painful.

 

[BigCecil]

They are completely different physically but his numbers remind me a bit of a young John Olerud.

 

Olerud was super hyped, going from brain surgery to MLB skipping the minors, people compared him to Lou Gerhig and Ted Williams before he did anything.

 

I remember that. Maybe its the expanse of media today but cant remember it being anything like the Vlad hype.

 

Olerud had a 122 wRC+ his 1st season. That's solid. Would happily take that production from Vlad this year.

 

Olerud 57 WAR career. Two 8 WAR seasons @ 1B. Pretty special player.

[FrozenRopes]

He should watch video of Prince Fielder.

[Olerud363]

I remember that. Maybe its the expanse of media today but cant remember it being anything like the Vlad hype.

 

Olerud had a 122 wRC+ his 1st season. That's solid. Would happily take that production from Vlad this year.

 

Olerud 57 WAR career. Two 8 WAR seasons @ 1B. Pretty special player.

 

Yup. Maybe trying to make Vlad into a flyball hitter is a mistake, like trying to make Olerud into a pull hitter was. He needs a bit of a fix but maybe he also needs to hit the ball to the opposite field more.

 

Looking at Olerud's batted ball data, he had a 20% line drive rate, and was almost evenly split in batted ball (around 33 for pull, center and opposite field).

 

Maybe Vlad would be better off going for that approach line drives and ground balls to all fields, eliminate the shift, don't swing at a ball. Easier said then done, but maybe the ground balls are partly from trying to pull pitches that he should be going the other way with.

[Laika]

Interestingly, Vlad's average exit velocity is up this year.

 

2019: 89.4 mph

2020: 91.7 mph

 

GB%: way up in 2020!

 

Plate discipline stats don't seem far off. Making contact at about the same rate.

 

I don't see why he should pull the ball any more or any less.

 

This is a one dimensional batted ball profile issue; he just needs less GB and more LD+FB.

 

It's sort of like Kevin Pillar's issues at the plate, just in someone with much more talent. Pillar has always had decent contact numbers but he makes such poor swing decisions that he hits a lot of balls meekly - weak groundballs and popups. Vlad is doing a bit of that this year and last. Swinging at bad pitches and because he is such a good hitter he makes contact and puts it in play. This is being magnified by not squaring up some hittable pitches too - timing is off or a mechanical issue on inside pitches. Unclear there; small sample, we are taking about a handful of pitches.

[Boxcar]

 

No doubting players allowed

[Spanky99]

No doubting players allowed

 

[Boxcar]

 

Spanky is such a male Karen