GDT: Blue Jays @ Rays (Game 3 of 3) July 26th 13:10 EST

[Olerud363]

Just curious how you calculated a good manager is worth .5 wins a season or is that your feeling and the old eye test.

 

Most of the calculations I've seen show a very good manager is worth 2-4 wins over the absolute worst manager. Something like the horrible manager cost the team 2 wins, and the good manager gains two wins. So if that was true the 0.5 estimate is way off.

 

However the problem is the analysis I've seen also include the effect of player development. And it seems to me, thus far, most of the complaints about Charlie are regarding strategy not player development.

 

If you want to fire him because of player development issues I'd be willing to listen.

 

However if you think the player development is OK and you want to fire him because of strategy, that's different. I don't think the strategy really costs all that much. Could be wrong. Does anybody have any links to research that looks at manager WAR because of strategy, somehow adjusting for the effect of player development?

[Olerud363]

Second question. Do you think Charlie is the guy to develop the young players or do you think it matters?

 

edit -- I assume here that Charlie has a lot of control over coaching hires and the approach of the coaching staff.

[Boxcar]

Well, not to brag, but I've got three ladies in bikinis in my pool, so I'm outta here... (Don't worry, it's not nearly as exciting as it sounds )

 

[BigCecil]

Just watched the game on PVR. Jesus f***. Burn down the Trop. Nothing good happens there.

[saskjayfan]

Just watched the game on PVR. Jesus f***. Burn down the Trop. Nothing good happens there.

 

No doubt. We're cursed there. We out hit them each game. I feel like we have as good a team and should have easily won 2 of 3. I had a great supper, watched the Raps and calmed down. I'm feeling like we could still be pretty good this year. Hopefully Giles will be okay.

[TheHurl]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/#:~:text=Based%20on%20my%20analysis%2C%2095,of%20the%20last%20112%20years.

[Krylian]

Solid rack

[max silver]

This game was a disaster at the end like so many games at the Trop over the years. I was very encouraged by Thomas Hatch, he has pretty high end stuff, and was pretty much as advertised. If he doesn't stick as a starter this season the stuff should play very well in the bullpen, he could replace Sam Gavliglio as a jack of all trades reliever who can actually get some outs. Kay performed nicely as well. Too bad to see Giles melt down at the end and get left in the game despite something obviously being off with him in this outing.

[Spanky99]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/#:~:text=Based%20on%20my%20analysis%2C%2095,of%20the%20last%20112%20years.

 

That's from 2014, meat.

[Olerud363]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/#:~:text=Based%20on%20my%20analysis%2C%2095,of%20the%20last%20112%20years.

 

That's the study I was thinkiing of. However they aren't looking at just strategy they are also looking at a performance, and assuming the manager has an effect on that. IE. They claim Fred McGriff played better in 94 and that players consistently "outperformed" under Cox

 

So the manager could effect the win total 2 ways

 

1. Making players "better" by motivation, coaching and setting the direction and philosophy of the coaching staff.

2. Strategy

 

Most people are complaining about 2 which is hard to decouple from 1, which is hard to decouple from luck and randomness.

[BlueRocky]

 

 

[BlueRocky]

Someone kindly make a GDT, game is starting @ 6:05 EDT

[Brownie19]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/#:~:text=Based%20on%20my%20analysis%2C%2095,of%20the%20last%20112%20years.

 

Do the recent changes in the way the game is managed (shifts, openers, increased bullpen use, etc.) change this?

 

I mean sure - back when you never shifted, ran your starters (good and bad ones) out there through the lineup 3 times, set & forget lineups, set roles in the bullpen (setup man, closer), etc....but these days it seems like there's a lot more decisions and options.

 

Maybe because the decisions are so analytical based, all the managers generally do the same things? Maybe you can argue that 'back in the day' they did stuff like call steals and do hit and runs more?

 

Just curious.

[Boxcar]

Do the recent changes in the way the game is managed (shifts, openers, increased bullpen use, etc.) change this?

 

I mean sure - back when you never shifted, ran your starters (good and bad ones) out there through the lineup 3 times, set & forget lineups, set roles in the bullpen (setup man, closer), etc....but these days it seems like there's a lot more decisions and options.

 

Maybe because the decisions are so analytical based, all the managers generally do the same things? Maybe you can argue that 'back in the day' they did stuff like call steals and do hit and runs more?

 

Just curious.

 

Maybe Buntoyo was hired as a baseline for what effect the worst manager in baseball has on your team as a big experiment before they conclude Gibby >> all and bring his rambly, barely able to speak English ass back to this team.

[Olerud363]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/#:~:text=Based%20on%20my%20analysis%2C%2095,of%20the%20last%20112%20years.

 

This analysis doesn't decouple strategy from the "make the guys better" aspect. They are giving Cox credit for McGriff performing well in 1994. In that line of thinking the most important thing is to get the most out of the core from 2021 through 2024. Main reason to fire the manager is for player development reasons.

 

If you want to fire him for strategy need to show what effect the strategy is having on win totals and decouple it from player performance.

 

"Take the Atlanta Braves’ 1990s first baseman, Fred McGriff. He had a 3.1 win above average mark in the strike-shortened 1994 season, which means he produced 3.1 more wins than an average player would have, if that average player were given the same amount of playing time. Based on his performance in the seasons before and after ’94, we would have expected McGriff to produce only .4 wins above average in ‘94 — 2.7 fewer than he actually did.

 

To whom should we credit those extra 2.7 wins? For the sake of this exercise, let’s give it to ol’ Bobby Cox, the manager of the Braves that year. This isn’t an outlier season a Braves player produced during Cox’s 25 years with the team. It turns out that Cox is one of the few managers of all time who could lead his players to unexpected performances year after year. Over the course of his career, Cox’s teams outperformed expectations by 3.1 wins per 162"

[glory]

Maybe Buntoyo was hired as a baseline for what effect the worst manager in baseball has on your team as a big experiment before they conclude Gibby >> all and bring his rambly, barely able to speak English ass back to this team.

 

The Montoyo hire now that we know what he's like as a manager is baffling. He's only 3.5 years younger than Gibby, and does not manage like a Cash or Boone type who make decisions almost entirely based on internal analytics. Charlie just wings it out there, no rhyme or reason for anything he does. I get that the candidate pool to take over this team 2 years ago when the team was openly tanking was likely not very good, so best case Buntoyo is a lameduck who is keeping the seat warm, but might as well have just kept Gibbons in that case. Firing Gibbons, hiring someone worse, and then letting the inferior guy manage the young players you want to lead you to your next winning core seems really pointless.

[KevinGregg]

Firing Gibbons, hiring someone worse, and then letting the inferior guy manage the young players you want to lead you to your next winning core seems really pointless.

 

Gibby wasn’t fired, he wanted to leave because he said he has no interest in managing a rebuilding team. Now that we’re good again we could probably convince him to come back

[Brownie19]

Gibby wasn’t fired, he wanted to leave because he said he has no interest in managing a rebuilding team. Now that we’re good again we could probably convince him to come back

 

Gibby 3.0 would be legendary. Billy Martin s***. If we ended up winning the WS with him as coach - he might end up on the level of excellence.

[Krylian]

Gibby isn't coming back. I mean, anything is possible, but I'd be beyond shocked if he ever came back to manage this team.

[BlueRocky]

[Boxcar]

We need to start a movement