MLB 2021 Draft

[BlueRocky]

Hi guys, apologies it’s been crazy at home since the offseason.

I’ve continued keeping tabs on the amateur prospects scene, here are a couple names that could be interesting at pick #19. The Jays are officially picking #19 in the first round with the Astros (#16) forfeiting their pick due to penalty.

 

The guys I mentioned before are still in play at this range, though with the college season starting up the draft rankings will swing wildly just based on a few extra weeks of data. There’s going to be a ton of popup guys and it’s a deeper draft than most years, though I’m hearing mixed opinions regarding the strength of this year’s top 10 names. College bats are definitely weaker than last year but the pitching is quite strong at the top.

 

Premium prep talent is abundant this time around and the rankings have already shuffled several times since the summer showcase in 2020. This plays into the volatility of this year’s class on top of the previously cancelled 2020 college season which makes the guess work EVEN MORE of a wild goose chase. There’s also the dynamic of college seniors returning to campus for a 5th season as they retain their draft eligibility due to a shortened 2020 draft. There’s already been a few early surprises in the college power rankings as certain schools benefited from this more than others, but it’s still really early.

 

Here are a few other guys I’m keeping an eye on for the 19th pick and their current BA scouting reports, sorted by their BA 200 rankings.

 

*side note: HS arms have a tendency to fall in the draft*

 

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Florida

Age At Draft: 18.3

 

Painter established himself as the top all-around arm in a deep and dynamic 2021 high school pitching class this summer. While there may be pitchers who reach more impressive high-end velocities, it’s hard to find a high school pitcher who checks as many boxes as Painter—leading many evaluators to compare him to 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel. Abel has a large, still-projectable frame and is listed at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds and he throws with a tremendously loose and easy three-quarter arm action with little to no effort in the finish. Painter has a complete four-pitch mix, led by a fastball that’s routinely in the mid 90s initially, before settling into the 90-94 mph range. He spins the ball well and throws two distinct breaking balls, including a low-80s slider and a mid-to-upper-70s curveball. He also has shown feel for a low-80s changeup. On top of his four-pitch mix, frame and delivery, Painter also has a long track record of standout strike throwing, projecting for at least above-average control. While the industry has generally steered away from prep righthanders in the first round, a handful still go high and Painter is as close to the ideal version of a prep arm as you could design in 2020. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where he makes it to Florida, as the industry sees him as a no-doubt top of the first round talent.

 

13

Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.

SS

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Tennessee

Age At Draft: 18.1

 

House entered the summer as the top-ranked high school prospect and did nothing to lose that status. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound shortstop has an exciting combination of high-level track record and a gaudy toolset to go along with it. The offensive tools are the loudest with House. He has terrific bat speed and natural strength, to go along with an advanced approach that allows him to track velocity and offspeed stuff with consistency. Scouts with history on House believe he has the ability to develop into a plus hitter, and his raw power should develop into 70-grade juice as he continues to develop. He’s already a physical and imposing hitter now, with plenty of impact to all fields and plus raw power, but there’s more to be had in the future. Defensively, House has easy plus arm strength—he can reach 96 mph on the mound—that could be an asset on the infield, where he has a good chance to stick. He doesn’t look like a typical pro shortstop, but evaluators have been impressed with his hands, reactions, internal clock and body control. Some believe he would be a better fit at third base, where he has all the tools to turn into an above-average defender. House is committed to Tennessee but is a top-of-the-first round talent and is unlikely to get to campus.

 

14

Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HS

SS

Notes:

Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 178 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: North Carolina State

Age At Draft: 18.2

 

Watson steadily increased his stock by performing consistently during the summer—including standout performances at USA Baseball’s National Team Championships and East Coast Pro—and is now among the top high school players in a strong North Carolina class. A 5-foot-9, 178-pound shortstop, Watson shows solid raw power for his size with impressive bat speed and aggressive swings to go with an advanced hit tool and approach. Against one of the most electric lefthanders in the class—Alabama’s Maddux Bruns—Watson worked an impressive walk in one at-bat and then followed it up with a hard-hit triple to right-center field in the next. Defensively, Watson has a good shot to stick at shortstop moving forward with good actions, solid arm strength and slick footwork at the position. Speed should be another asset for the North Carolina State commit, as he clocked a 65-grade run time (6.5-6.6 seconds) in the 60-yard dash at East Coast Pro, which will give him enough range up the middle and make him a threat on the base paths. The industry currently sees Watson as a top-two round talent, and he’s one of the reasons the 2021 prep shortstop class is already looking stronger than it did in 2020.

 

16

Colton Cowser

Sam Houston State

OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.3

 

Cowser had a breakout season as a freshman at Sam Houston State in 2019, where he hit .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and nine stolen bases. Cowser made the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team for his efforts and ranked as the No. 16 prospect on the club as one of the youngest members. Teams might feel more confident with Cowser than many other hitters because of his track record with the bat in college and Team USA, and he brings a nice hitting and power combination from the left side while playing center field. There are some who wonder if he’s a real center fielder at the next level as he fills out a tall, 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame, but he is an above-average runner with good instincts. Cowser controls the zone well and has just an 11.5 strikeout percentage over 328 plate appearances with Sam Houston State in the Southland Conference and scouts have also liked the quality of his plate appearances when he’s faced high-level arms, including 2020 first-rounder LHP Asa Lacy. With a well-rounded game that includes power, speed and an ability to hit all fields while playing a premium position, Cowser is one of the more complete bats at the top of the 2021 draft class.

 

18

Ethan Wilson

South Alabama

OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.7

 

Wilson exploded onto the college baseball scene in 2019, hitting .345/.453/.686 and making his way onto the freshman All-American first team. With 17 home runs, Wilson was just one homer shy of the first team home run leader Aaron Sabato, whom the Twins selected in the first round in 2020. Wilson has big, bold check marks next to the two most important tools thanks to his hitting ability and power, and scouts think he’s solidly in the first round mix because of that. He has a heady, consistent approach at the dish and draws a solid number of walks—Wilson has a 12% walk rate in his South Alabama career—to go with his gaudy power numbers. Even as a left fielder, where Wilson is most likely to end up, he has the hitting ability and power to profile and become an impact, middle-of-the-order bat at the next level. Playing in the Sun Belt Conference, he will get critiqued for not having performed against better pitching, so missing a chance to hit in the Cape Cod League or with Team USA might hurt the 6-foot-2, 210-pound lefthanded slugger more than others, but he’s done nothing but perform with the opportunities he’s been given.

 

20

Joshua Baez

Dexter Southfield HS, Brookline, Mass.

OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 220 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Vanderbilt

Age At Draft: 18.0

 

One of a handful of toolsy Northeast hitters in the 2021 class, Baez has some of the best power projection in the high school class thanks to a powerful swing and a well-developed, muscular 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame. There are scouts who believe Baez has a chance to grow into 70-grade raw power, but at the moment there are some swing-and-miss concerns, though scouts have noted he never truly looks out of control or lost at the plate. There’s a hand drop in his swing that could lead to inconsistencies against velocity up in the zone, but when the Vanderbilt commit does connect the ball explodes off his bat and carries a long way. Baez clocked a solid-average 60-yard time at East Coast Pro, but most scouts believe he will become a fringe-average runner in the future and is best suited to a corner outfield position. His power and arm strength—he’s been up to 97 mph on the mound—would be a major asset in center field if he could stick there, but he’s built more like a corner guy and has the toolset and power to profile nicely as a right fielder.

 

23

Gunnar Hoglund

Mississippi

RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Pirates 2018 (36)

Age At Draft: 21.6

 

One of the best strike throwers in the country, Hoglund arrived on campus at Mississippi even after the Pirates selected him with the 36th pick of the 2018 draft. A talented high school prospect who ranked No. 84 on the BA 500, Hoglund screamed starter with a projectable frame, easy delivery, solid fastball and command that evaluators at the time thought could be plus. In two seasons with Ole Miss, that’s continued to be the case. Now listed at a strong, 6-foot-4, 220-pounds, Hoglund is one of the better command arms in the class and has walked just 18 batters in 91.1 innings (1.8 per nine) as a full-time starter, while compared to 90 strikeouts (8.9 per nine). Hoglund’s fastball typically sits in the 88-92 mph range, though he has been up to 95-96 at his best and he throws a sharp slider off of his heater, which comes out of his hand with a similar look in the low 80s. The pitch has good bite and the look of an above-average offering. He also throws a low-80s changeup that is his third pitch, but it’s his fastball that he primarily uses to generate whiffs. While the pitch doesn’t have elite velocity just yet, it has some riding life and his overall command allows it to play up. He’s solidly a day one arm who could take a massive jump up boards with an appreciable jump in velocity given his likely-starter profile.

 

26

Benny Montgomery

Red Land HS, Lewisberry, Pa.

OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 195 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Virginia

Age At Draft: 18.8

 

Tool for tool, Montgomery might be the most talented player in the 2021 class. The 6-foot-4, 195-pound Pennsylvania product immediately stands out with his collection of plus and better tools. He’s got big raw power and manages exit velocities pushing 100 mph when he connects and has consistently been one of the faster runners in the class, clocking multiple sub-6.4-second 60-yard dash times. Montgomery is at least a 70-grade runner and might be a half-grade better, and he pairs power and speed with a strong throwing arm as well. He has a chance to be a premium center fielder and base runner, but scouts are still wondering about his hitting ability. Montgomery is still figuring out his lanky, projectable body at times, and that’s clear in the box. He has a lot of moving parts, including a hand drop that leads to inconsistent timing and contact. The crudeness to his offensive approach has limited his production at the plate and has led evaluators to wondering whether or not he’ll be able to tap into his tools in games at the next level, though he has enough athleticism to make adjustments and refine his game as he matures. The Virginia commit has terrific upside, but he also comes with plenty of risk at the moment.

 

29

Chase Burns

Station Camp HS, Gallatin, Tenn.

RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 225 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Tennessee

Age At Draft: 18.5

 

A physical righthander committed to Tennessee, Burns has some of the loudest pure stuff in the 2021 class, headlined by a fastball that routinely gets into the 99-100 mph range. Burns’ fastball is simply overpowering at the moment, with exceptional velocity and riding life that comes out a difficult plane for hitters thanks to a high, three-quarter arm slot. Burns attacks downhill with scattered control, though scouts have seen progress in his pitchability throughout the summer and his margin for error in location at the current level is wide considering his velocity. Burns also throws two breaking balls, one a sharp, top-to-bottom curve that looks like an average pitch and a more promising upper-80s slider with more sweeping action that shows real tilt and bite at its best. Some evaluators have graded the slider out as a future plus offering while his changeup has garnered mixed feedback and remains inconsistent. Burns will have to battle the poor track record of hard-throwing preps, and he also throws with a longer arm action that many clubs don’t love. There are also some minor mechanical cues and repeatability questions that teams will want answered, but none are massive red flags at the moment.

 

30

Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla.

SS/RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Mississippi

Age At Draft: 19.0

 

One of the top two-way prospects in the 2021 class, Jobe may have been thought of as a primary shortstop entering the summer, but teams are enthralled with his athleticism, arm strength and feel for spin after seeing him pitch over the last few months. A 6-foot-2, 185-pound righthander committed to Mississippi, Jobe has shown a solid four-pitch mix with a fastball up to 95, but his slider is the main event. The pitch is among the higher spin rate breaking balls in the class and has gotten into the elite, Carter Stewart 3,000-plus rpm range. The pitch is an easy future plus offering in the 80-84 mph range and has two-plane break with plenty of depth and power when he hits on it. After that, Jobe has a curveball in the upper 70s that’s solidly behind his slider and a low-to-mid-80s changeup that has good fading life down and in to righthanded hitters. Jobe has shown solid control with most of his pitches and works with a simple delivery. He has plenty of arm speed and throws from a three-quarter slot and scouts have praised the crispness of his actions on the mound. MLB clubs love the idea of putting an athlete like Jobe on the mound, so most likely have his pitching upside in front of his position player upside for now, but he’s a real pro prospect as a hitter as well.

 

31

Levi Usher

Louisville

OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Angels 2019 (37)

Age At Draft: 21.1

 

A toolsy, multi-sport athlete in high school, Usher spent a season at Kirkwood (Iowa) JC, where he hit over .400 and stole 36 bags. He brought that loud toolset to Louisville in 2020 and started strong with the bat, hitting .411/.484/.571 with two home runs and 11 stolen bases through 16 games. Usher is an explosive runner and has plus arm strength that should allow him to fit in right field, and he probably has the toolset to play center as well. Offensively, he’s continued to refine his approach but he occasionally pulls out and gets rotational, which can create issues—particularly against lefthanded pitchers, who he has struggled against, albeit in a small sample. Usher’s statistical performance across a few levels of college ball is impressive, and he has the tools to match, but scouts will want to see him prove his hitting chops over a full season against ACC pitching to get a better feel for his actual hit tool. He’ll also need to stay healthy, as he’s dealt with leg and foot injuries in the past.

 

32

Joshua Hartle

Reagan HS, Pfafftown, N.C.

LHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Wake Forest

Age At Draft: 18.3

 

Hartle appears to be the next impact lefthander to come out of the North Carolina prep ranks, following recent draftees like Liam Norris, Blake Walston and MacKenzie Gore. A projection pitcher with a clean arm action, delivery and a lean, 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame with plenty of room to fill out, scouts love the way Hartle throws. It’s an incredibly easy operation and the quality of his strikes are among the best in the class. His stuff isn’t overpowering, with a fastball that sits in the 89-92 mph range and ticks up to 93-94 at his best, with two solid secondaries. There are some questions about his natural ability to spin a breaking ball out of a lower, three-quarter slot, as the movement of his 78-84 mph sweeping breaking ball isn’t great, but he has good feel for the pitch and lands it consistently. He also has a mid-80s changeup that could give him a third average offering with developing feel. With plenty of starter traits thanks to his loose arm action and strike-throwing ability, many teams are just waiting for the Wake Forest commit to fill out a bit and see his fastball tick up next spring.

Edited March 3, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Laika]

Keith Law

 

1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Leiter is an age-eligible sophomore, and while he may not be the Commodores’ most famous starter right now, he’s their best prospect, with the best combination of stuff, command, and delivery in the draft. Leiter can pitch at 95-96 mph and hit his spots even at that velocity, with a plus breaking ball and a delivery he repeats very well to keep that command long-term. His father (Al), uncle (Mark), and cousin (Mark Jr.) all pitched in the majors, and he has the track record — Jack was a first-round talent in 2019 out of high school — to give teams the extra comfort level they want when taking someone this high in the draft.

 

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep HS, Dallas, TX

 

Lawlar compares very favorably to another DFW-area high school shortstop taken high in the draft, Bobby Witt, Jr., who went second overall to the Royals in 2019. Lawlar is, if anything, a better overall athlete with better pure tools than Witt Jr., but lacks the baseball skills that the latter had in his draft year. He’s a plus runner with bat speed and a quiet approach, and projects to stay at shortstop with the chance to become a plus defender with more consistency on routine plays. Like Witt, he’s an older senior, turning 19 right before this year’s draft.

 

3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

The Commodores could very easily have two guys go in the top three picks in the draft, or even 1-2, with Leiter and Rocker. Rocker might be more famous, having thrown a no-hitter in the postseason two years ago and a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph, but he does suffer slightly in comparison to Leiter, with the inferior breaking ball and a grade less command. Rocker is 6-foot-5, 245, with plenty of athleticism (his father, Tracy Rocker, played two seasons in the NFL), but the fastball is really his main weapon, and he could use a plus secondary pitch and/or better movement on the fastball to go before his teammate.

 

4. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

 

If Hill posts every weekend this spring, he could jump up into the top three, passing Rocker, but concerns about Hill’s health history put him just below the other guys, as he missed much of 2019 with elbow soreness and didn’t get the chance to show he was durable last spring. Hill has the size (6-4, 234) to be a workhorse and he’s a superb athlete, and he’s started very strongly in 2021, working at 94-98 with three above-average or better pitches in the fastball, slider, and changeup. He has a great delivery and, through two outings, has thrown a ton of strikes and hasn’t walked a batter.

 

5. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami (FL)

 

Del Castillo’s defense is the subject of some debate among scouts — whether it’s good enough for him to catch long term, or whether he’ll have to move to first base — but the consensus already is that his bat will play anywhere, with a sweet left-handed swing and a good approach that give him a chance to be a strong hitter for average, OBP, and power.

 

6. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

 

Right now, Mayer would be the second prep player off the board after Lawlar, both no-doubt shortstops but with Lawlar showing bigger tools. Mayer has an easy left-handed swing for high contact rates, but he doesn’t use his lower half enough, so while there’s the potential for above-average power here he’s not going to get to it without some mechanical adjustments. He’s an average runner with a 55 arm and should stay at short in the long term.

 

7. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi

 

Hoglund was a sandwich-round pick in 2018, going 36th overall to the Pirates, but didn’t sign with the club after the team tried to go below slot with him. He’s been healthy and effective so far for Ole Miss, especially in limiting free passes — he’s walked 21 guys in 103 innings since he got to campus, and between 2020 and 2021 he’s dominated non-conference competition. His velocity was down last year but it’s been back up through two starts this season, and if that holds up into SEC play, his delivery and command will make him one of the safer picks among college right-handers.

 

8. Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, GA

 

House has obnoxious raw power and huge exit velocities, so if he hits, he’s going to hit in the middle of a lineup for a long time, but his hit tool is still the big question after he showed poorly in the summer of 2020. He’s also a pitcher and has a plus arm that will help him stay on the left side of the infield, where he could be a 55 or better defender at third.

 

9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

 

Cusick has been up to 100 mph and his fastball really plays, arguably the best overall fastball in the draft class when you consider not just velocity but how effective it is at getting hitters out. He’s improved dramatically since heading to Wake, from delivery to approach to using his offspeed stuff, and still has some room for growth in pitch selection and developing his changeup. There’s still starter/reliever risk here, but he has high upside as a starter and seems extremely likely to have some role in the big leagues either way.

 

10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

 

Watson has a higher floor than some of the other high school bats likely to go in the top half of the first round, as he’s a high probability shortstop with no below-average tools, but his height (5-9) may scare some teams off him even with the success of many shorter position players in the majors in the last five years. He has a fast bat and should get to line-drive power, and he’s a plus runner with arm strength who should stay at short.

 

11. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, FL

 

If this were 1992, Wood would be a top five pick in the draft because he’s 6-6, 230, and has enormous raw power — but this is 2021, and teams care more about all-around baseball skills now than they did then, when being the biggest, strongest, fastest or hardest-throwing player could put you atop draft boards. Wood does have some of the best pure power in the draft, hitting them out to all fields and homering in every major event in 2020, and he’s an above-average runner with a plus arm. His hit tool is further behind. He’ll have some wide discrepancies in how teams rate him, with some clubs completely off him in the top half of the round.

 

12. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

 

The once-mighty Longhorns program is starting to arrest its long decline; they haven’t had a first-rounder since Corey Knebel in 2013, and the last pitcher drafted from the school to have any extended MLB success was Huston Street in 2004. Madden might break both streaks, coming right down at hitters from a high three-quarters slot and two potential plus pitches in his fastball and slider, but he has to throw more and better strikes over this spring to cement himself as a starter and top-half pick.

 

13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

 

The top college left-hander usually goes in the top half of the first round — in the last 10 drafts, the first college lefty has gone in the top 20 picks nine times, and in six of those drafts he went in the top 10 — so while Wicks doesn’t have the pure stuff of this year’s batch of college right-handers, he’s far and away the top southpaw and should go accordingly. He’s been 90-93 with an above-average breaking ball, feel for a changeup, and the command and control you’d expect from the college-lefty archetype.

 

14. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)

 

Bachman has been up to 100 mph this spring with good sink as well as a grade-70 slider up to 90 mph, with improved control since his freshman year, so while it’s not a classic delivery or arm action, he has the power stuff to start or be an impact reliever if he can’t do this in the rotation.

 

15. Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn

 

Fitts walked on to his high school team and only ended up pitching at Auburn after making the team in a tryout as a freshman, but his velocity has gradually crept up over the last three years. He can pitch at 94-95 and touch 97 with a wipeout changeup with split-like action, and he has above-average control. He does need to tighten up his slider, and last weekend’s dud against Baylor didn’t help his draft stock.

 

16. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida

 

Mace was No. 46 on my Big Board last year, but went undrafted when he chose to bet on himself and go back to Florida for his senior year. So far, it’s looking like a very good bet, as Mace is throwing his curveball more, giving him a strong second pitch along with a 90-95 mph fastball. He’s a safe bet to be a big-league starter, and since he’s 22 already and will have four years (one shortened) of experience in the SEC, he should be fairly close to the majors.

 

17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

 

Cowser is set to become either the highest or second-highest draft pick in Sam Houston State history; the Bearkats have had just one first-round pick, Glenn Wilson to Detroit in 1980. Cowser has bat speed and a history of contact, but his swing is handsy and he’s going to hit for average more than power, which is fine as long as he stays in centerfield.

 

18. Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City

 

Jobe is a very hard thrower with elite spin rates on his curveball, possibly the highest in the class, and is an outstanding athlete whose father, Brandt, won the Boeing Classic on the PGA Tour in 2019. He’s not the tallest or most physical among the high school right-handers this year but has the best present combination of stuff and athleticism.

 

19. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

 

McLain is certainly famous, turning down the Diamondbacks’ first-round money in 2018 to go to UCLA, but hasn’t performed enough for the Bruins to move into the top tier of position players, especially since he’s going to move off shortstop (probably to second base) in pro ball.

 

20. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

Will Smith was a sandwich-round pick out of Louisville in 2016, but Davis, a fellow Cardinals catcher, should beat that as a no-doubt catcher with power and, in limited time, a history of rarely striking out. He has a 70 arm and 60 or better raw power, with strength and bat speed, but has an exaggerated crouch and some length to his swing that gives pause about his future hit tool … except so far in college he has just 22 punchouts in 230 PA, with 0 so far in 2020.

 

21. Braden Montgomery, OF, Madison Central HS, Madison, MS

 

The history of position players drafted out of Mississippi high schools is dismal; the all-time WAR leader is Charlie Hayes with 10.5, and only one hitter drafted from a Mississippi high school in this century has a WAR over 0.1 — Billy Hamilton, drafted in 2009. But the switch-hitting Montgomery stands out for his unusual polish for players from that state, with a commitment to Stanford, and huge tools, with plusses in power, arm, and glove.

 

22. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA

 

Ford is a fleet-footed catcher who has the tools to stay behind the plate, with athleticism and agility as well as an average to above-average arm. He has electric bat speed and should come into power, with a huge stride in the box but surprisingly good balance even with such a dramatic movement.

 

23. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield School, Boston, MA

 

Baez could be a day one pick off the mound, where he’s hit 97, but he wants to be a position player and with his huge power and high exit velocities, he’s likely to go in the first round, especially to teams that value age highly, since he’s only 17 at the draft.

 

24. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, NJ

 

Solometo is long and lanky, with an unrefined delivery, but he’s been up to 97 with a plus slider and plenty of changeup to see him as a potential starter.

 

25. Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS, Lewisbury, PA

 

Montgomery is a 70 runner with plus raw power and a tall, lean build, with somewhat narrow shoulders that give him more of a young Drew Stubbs frame than that of someone who’s going to put on 50 more pounds.

 

26. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ

 

Petty has hit 100 mph and can sit mid-90s with good arm speed on his changeup and a low-80s breaking ball, but he’ll be dinged by some teams because he’s a 6-foot high school right-hander.

 

27. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

 

Frelick is a small, fast centerfielder, listed at 5-9, 175, with a quick, no-load, slashing swing that produces a ton of contact — he has 35 walks and just 26 strikeouts in 278 PA for Boston College — but won’t lead to any power. He’s moved to centerfield this year, and if he shows he can play average defense there, he’ll be a first-rounder with everyday upside.

 

28. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

 

Wilson hit .345/.453/.686 as a freshman in 2019, but rolled his ankle before the 2021 season started, missing the first weekend and DHing the second. He was supposed to be one of the top bats in the draft this year, but adding a huge leg kick hasn’t helped his timing any more than the ankle injury has, and he could be in danger of slipping out of the first round.

 

29. Alex Binelas, OF, Louisville

 

Binelas had a strong freshman year for the Cardinals in 2018, with power and some patience without too many whiffs, but he’s off to a very rough start this year, swinging and missing too often and going 2 for 26 in non-conference play.

 

30. Eric Cerantola, RHP, Mississippi State

 

The Bulldogs’ entire weekend rotation should go in the top three rounds, but Cerantola is the guy with real first-round upside, as he’s been up to 100 mph with a power breaking ball. He just has no track record to speak of right now, with only 34 career innings — and 25 walks — so the 6-5 Canadian is all upside with no floor.

[Brownie19]

Is Braden Olthoff draft eligible? Dirty stuff.

 

[BlueRocky]

He’s almost 22 so should be draft eligible

[Laika]

Is Braden Olthoff draft eligible? Dirty stuff.

 

 

He was eligible last year and didn't get picked in the small five round draft. Doesn't throw particularly hard but his results have been great although the sample size is very small. Looks like a guy with great command of good secondaries but maybe a 40/45 fastball. Has not been pitching very long.

[BlueRocky]

54

Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio)

RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 235 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.8

 

A big, burly righthander with a solid track record as a starter in his two years with Miami (Ohio), the 6-foot-1, 235-pound Bachman reminds some scouts of RHP Trent Palmer from the 2020 draft, who was taken in the third round by the Blue Jays. Bachman fits in the second-to-fourth-round range at the moment and has a trio of pitches that he’s been effective with. He can run his heavy fastball up to 96 mph at his best and he also has a firm, mid-80s slider that he can manipulate with two strikes to add depth and try to induce more whiffs. After that, Bachman has a tumbling changeup in the lower 80s. Bachman throws with a bit of an unconventional arm action that is inverted in the back, and also has a lower, three-quarter arm slot. Over two years as a full-time starter with Miami (Ohio) in 99.1 innings, Bachman has posted a 3.81 ERA with 106 strikeouts (9.6 per nine) and 45 walks (4.1 per nine).

 

 

Keep an eye on this guy

[BlueRocky]

 

Hard to see Hoglund falling to #19 now

[Daniel Labude]

Hoping we get Jud Fabian

[Stangstag]

In case anybody is wondering, the Jays have the 19th pick for this year's draft

 

Skimmed through the thread and couldn't find the answer so I had to google it

[King]

Where the hell does Mason McRae get his college stats from?

 

The guy cites wRC+ on breaking balls and fastball VAA like it's info everybody should know.

[Laika]

Where the hell does Mason McRae get his college stats from?

 

Is that the idiot who hates Manoah?

 

edit: yes

 

 

lol looks like he has tried to delete most of his Manoah hate tweets

 

based on the lack of credibility we can glean from the Manoah hate purge thing I think there is a less than zero chance that he is making up some of these college stats

[King]

Is that the idiot who hates Manoah?

 

edit: yes

 

 

lol looks like he has tried to delete most of his Manoah hate tweets

 

based on the lack of credibility we can glean from the Manoah hate purge thing I think there is a less than zero chance that he is making up some of these college stats

 

He quotes them everyday though, it's enough for me to think he's not making it up. Probably just knows someone who works in a college baseball teams analytics department who feeds him the info.

[King]

So Jack Leiter had a 16K no hitter today, and every punchout was on a fastball. Looks like the best college pitcher in the draft since Strasburg/Cole?

[Laika]

So Jack Leiter had a 16K no hitter today, and every punchout was on a fastball. Looks like the best college pitcher in the draft since Strasburg/Cole?

 

Many still have Rocker over him. It's a great 1-2 pitching combo at the top either way. Rocker has the best breaking ball in college apparently and Leiter has the best fastball. Personally, give me Leiter - I would see an elite fastball with ride as just such a safer central talent.

[Ray]

Casey Mize has looked bad so far, but wasn’t he quite highly touted? Maybe not Strasburg/Cole levels, but I remember him being pretty consensus 1-1.

[Spanky99]

Casey Mize has looked bad so far, but wasn’t he quite highly touted? Maybe not Strasburg/Cole levels, but I remember him being pretty consensus 1-1.

 

Yes, he was/is still looked on as a top prospect.

[TheHurl]

Where the hell does Mason McRae get his college stats from?

 

The guy cites wRC+ on breaking balls and fastball VAA like it's info everybody should know.

 

Robert Frey has a video series on how he scrapes data and converts it to some "advanced stats" but he doesn't have anything public that I know of. There is zero data anywhere on pitch type that I know of, so still sounds like he is full of s*** but who knows. Still would be such a small sample size that it is virtually useless.

[TheHurl]

So Jack Leiter had a 16K no hitter today, and every punchout was on a fastball. Looks like the best college pitcher in the draft since Strasburg/Cole?

 

Just want to add that Kumar's line against South Carolina was:

 

8 IP, 3 Hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 14K 116 pitches

 

Leiter went 124 pitches in his no no.

 

 

Overall now through 5 starts:

 

Leiter 29 IP, 7 hits, 11 BB, 49K 1 ER

Kumar 31IP, 11 hits, 10BB, 48K, 2 ER

 

Their next two weekends are both against very cold hitting teams in Mizzou and LSU. Thus far it's so much better than Cole and Bauer in 2011 as far as tandems go.

[Spanky99]

Just want to add that Kumar's line against South Carolina was:

 

8 IP, 3 Hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 14K 116 pitches

 

Leiter went 124 pitches in his no no.

 

 

Overall now through 5 starts:

 

Leiter 29 IP, 7 hits, 11 BB, 49K 1 ER

Kumar 31IP, 11 hits, 10BB, 48K, 2 ER

 

Their next two weekends are both against very cold hitting teams in Mizzou and LSU. Thus far it's so much better than Cole and Bauer in 2011 as far as tandems go.

 

Damn, impressive.

[BlueRocky]

Updated BA draft rankings, only going to post the top 30 but other names and scouting reports available on request.

 

A couple names have really moved (both up and down) since the first version.

 

Some serious risers like Frelick, Davis, Hoglund, Bachman, Wicks, Chandler, and Tresh, while a few guys fallings like Matt McLain and Jud Fabian.

 

By Carlos Collazo

 

We were warned this draft year would be chaotic.

 

Today we are excited to roll out our first in-season draft ranking update, which also includes an expansion from the top 200 prospects in the class to the top 300. The movement shown in today’s update should provide a good picture of the tumultuous nature of the 2021 class—which largely stems from shortened evaluation time during the entire 2020 calendar.

 

It would take a more thorough look at previous 200-300 expansions to see how this year’s movement compares to recent years, but it certainly seems like the draft board is shuffling much more than a normal year.

 

Twelve players ranked in the first round on our preseason ranking have up/down movement greater than 10 spots, while 47 players ranked among the preseason top 100 have up/down movement greater than 10 spots. A majority of those 10+ movers come from the college class, which should emphasize that demographic’s increased movement potential throughout the season as teams finally get a typical evaluation period.

 

Vanderbilt righthander Kumar Rocker is still in the No. 1 spot on the board, though his teammate and fellow righthander Jack Leiter has closed the gap on him at No. 2, while Dallas Jesuit High shortstop Jordan Lawlar rounds out the top tier of the class at No. 3. It is important to note that the industry does not currently seem to have any clear consensus on how the top three players in the class line up. Each of Rocker, Leiter and Lawlar have garnered support for the top spot on the board depending on the club or upper-level scouting official asked.

 

Eastlake High (Chula Vista, Calif.) shortstop Marcelo Mayer is the most commonly mentioned name after this trio, and could shortly join the top three—if he hasn’t already—as the California high school season progresses.

 

The rest of the top 10 is rounded out by college players. Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick and Louisville catcher Henry Davis have moved from middle-of-the-first round territory to solid top 10 talents given their offensive performance, joining the steady bat of Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo. After that is the second tier of college pitchers, which includes Louisiana State righthander Jaden Hill, Texas righthander Ty Madden and Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund.

1 –Last: 1

Kumar Rocker

Vanderbilt

RHP

 

2 Last: 5

Jack Leiter

Vanderbilt

RHP

 

3 Last: 2

Jordan Lawlar

Dallas Jesuit HS

SS

 

4 –Last: 4

Marcelo Mayer

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif.

SS

 

5 Last: 3

Adrian Del Castillo

Miami

C

 

6 Last: 17

Sal Frelick

Boston College

OF

 

7 Last: 19

Henry Davis

Louisville

C

 

8 Last: 6

Jaden Hill

Louisiana State

RHP

 

9 Last: 12

Ty Madden

Texas

RHP

 

10 Last: 23

Gunnar Hoglund

Mississippi

RHP

 

11 Last: 7

James Wood

IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

OF

 

12 Last: 13

Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.

SS

 

13 Last: 14

Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HS

SS

 

14 Last: 8

Matt McLain

UCLA

SS

 

15 Last: 54

Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio)

RHP

 

16 Last: 27

Jordan Wicks

Kansas State

LHP

 

17 Last: 11

Jud Fabian

Florida

OF

 

18 Last: 30

Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla.

RHP/SS

 

19 Last: 86

Bubba Chandler

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga.

RHP

 

20 Last: 10

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

RHP

 

21 Last: 20

Joshua Baez

Dexter Southfield HS, Brookline, Mass.

OF

 

22 Last: 24

Harry Ford

North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, Ga.

C

 

23 Last: 22

Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.

C

 

24 Last: 21

Izaac Pacheco

Friendswood (Texas) HS

SS

 

25 Last: 163

Luca Tresh

North Carolina State

C

 

26 Last: 16

Colton Cowser

Sam Houston State

OF

 

27 Last: 26

Benny Montgomery

Red Land HS, Lewisberry, Pa.

OF

 

28 Last: 90

Thatcher Hurd

Mira Costa HS, Manhattan Beach, Calif.

RHP

 

29 Last: 32

Joshua Hartle

Reagan HS, Pfafftown, N.C.

LHP

 

30 Last: 38

Tommy Mace

Florida

RHP

[Laika]

Jud Fabian has a chance to fall to Toronto. Big K rate but huge upside. We can dream...

[BlueRocky]

Yep didn’t think Fabian or McLain would fall to our pick range, but the supposedly upper tier college bats this class had some slow starts to the season. I’m honestly not really sold on either as an elite bat prospect, compared to the studs we had last year, but they could be good value at #19.

 

The prep class seems pretty strong this year, particularly at shortstop. If Atkins is shopping the HS prep arms aisle, both Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter seem to be within their range.

[Laika]

Yep didn’t think Fabian or McLain would fall to our pick range, but the supposedly upper tier college bats this class had some slow starts to the season. I’m honestly not really sold on either as an elite bat prospect, compared to the studs we had last year, but they could be good value at #19.

 

The prep class seems pretty strong this year, particularly at shortstop. If Atkins is shopping the HS prep arms aisle, both Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter seem to be within their range.

 

I like the depth of the draft as far as picking 19th goes. They should be able to get someone who will have been talked about as a potential top 10 pick heading into the draft.

[Spanky99]

I highly likely doubt Fabian will be available at 19, I guess one could dream.

[Jimcanuck]

Theorizing here, but I think technology today means a greater chance of success with raw prospects with projectable power and tools.

 

If the theory holds, I'd lean more to a prep prospect then a college guy falling down the draft order.

[BlueRocky]

The last time the Blue Jays picked 19 they took Alex Rios out of high school in 1999 (27.3 rWAR).

The best 19th pick of all time was Roger Clemens in 1983 (139.2 rWAR).

 

Here’s a list of #19 picks in the past couple years:

 

2020 Mets, Pete Crow-Armstrong

2019 Cardinals, Zack Thompson

2018 Cardinals, Nolan Gorman

2017 Giants, Heliot Ramos

2016 Mets, Justin Dunn

2015 Pirates, Kevin Newman

2014 Reds, Nick Howard

2013 Cardinals, Marco Gonzales

2012 Cardinals, Michael Wacha

2011 Red Sox, Matt Barnes

2010 Astros, Mike Foltynewicz

2009 Cardinals, Shelby Miller

2008 Cubs, Andrew Cashner

[BlueRocky]

There’s always talent available in this pick range. A couple notable guys that were taken shortly after the 19th pick the past couple drafts:

 

2020

20 Garrett Mitchell

21 Jordan Walker

22 Cade Cavalli

24 Nick Bitsko

26 Tyler Soderstrom

 

2019

20 George Kirby

22 Greg Jones

24 Daniel Espino

25 Kody Hoese

26 Blake Walston

 

2018

20 Trevor Larnach

24 Nico Hoerner

29 Bo Naylor

34 Daniel Lynch

48 Simeon Woods-Richardson

 

2017

20 David Peterson

22 Logan Warmoth

24 Tanner Houck

28 Nate Pearson

39 Luis Campusano

41 Drew Waters

45 Spencer Howard

47 Griffin Canning

 

2016

20 Gavin Lux

21 TJ Zeuch ...

25 Eric Lauer

28 Carter Kieboom

29 Dane Dunning

31 Anthony Kay

33 Dylan Carlson

35 Taylor Trammell

 

2015

24 Walker Buehler

28 Mike Soroka

32 Ke’Bryan Hayes

36 Ryan Mountcastle

41 Austin Riley

42 Triston McKenzie

 

2014

25 Matt Chapman

26 Michael Chavis

27 Luke Weaver

31 Justus Sheffield

33 Michael Kopech

34 Jack Flaherty

Edited March 28, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Krylian]

Has there been a decision on how many rounds the draft will be this year?

[Spanky99]

10 minimum, last I read.

[BlueRocky]

No official decision but teams are anticipating a 20 round draft