2020 Organizational Review: Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects

[43211234]

Yeah, there is zero chance Manoah is 250.

[BlueRocky]

He was around 250 in Lansing last season, now.. I don’t know. Some sites still have him @ 220 Haha

 

Great read.

 

No mention for Ty Tice? No Dice?

 

 

I’ve seen a couple good outings from Tice. To be honest it’s just very hard to project bullpen arms, this system is really deep. I was barely able to slip in mentions for guys like Jackson Rees on my personal list

Edited February 25, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Beans]

*By the way, the GB was switched to Thursday

 

I’ll be there with a coconut smasher!

[max silver]

I see you have your 50% outcome comparison for Nate Pearson listed as Jon Gray. I suspect every single reader on this board would be pretty disappointed with that outcome, and with what Nate has done up to this point I'd readily argue he has a very good chance to have a similar career to the guy you've listed as his 95% outcome in Noah Syndergaard. How do you go about tabulating the results to come up with your comparison players?

[Laika]

Great read.

 

No mention for Ty Tice? No Dice?

 

Tyce ended up in a bucket full of pure relief prospects that were very difficult to justify ranking. We tend to value upside, so even the players in the 40-50 range that have a remote chance to be starters or average regulars ended up more appealing than Tice and the other relievers (Jackson Rees, Brad Wilson, Cre Finfrock, Parker Caracci, Kirby Snead, Jackson McLelland, Bryan Baker are a few of the other RP bucket names.)

 

A relief prospect needs to have huge f***ing stuff to be a noteworthy prospect. We ranked some arms who are certainly only MLB relievers, but even they have been MiLB starters (Romano, Perez, Yennsy Diaz, etc.) Most good MLB relievers were minor league starters. I think the only arm in Toronto's projected pen who was only a reliever in the minors is Ken Giles - the rest were basically MiLB starters.

[Laika]

I see you have your 50% outcome comparison for Nate Pearson listed as Jon Gray. I suspect every single reader on this board would be pretty disappointed with that outcome, and with what Nate has done up to this point I'd readily argue he has a very good chance to have a similar career to the guy you've listed as his 95% outcome in Noah Syndergaard. How do you go about tabulating the results to come up with your comparison players?

 

They are just arbitrary percentile comparisons. We pull them out of our butts.

 

Jon Gray is the 20th best pitcher in baseball since 2016, with 13.1 career fWAR in only 114 games started. We have said that Nate Pearson should be expected to be about that good; we expect him to be a comfortably above average starter. The percentile expression also means that Pearson could be better than that about half the time.

 

That could be too optimistic, honestly. Pitching prospects are a bitch. It takes one major arm injury to ruin them, sometimes.

 

You could nitpick that he has a better than 5% shot to be Syndergaard I suppose, maybe Pearson has a better chance to be that good, but you're talking about a pitcher with 6 WAR upside, who has been top 10 in total fWAR since he entered the league while missing essentially an entire season to injury.

[BlueRocky]

99.9% Nolan Ryan, Nate’s childhood hero.

 

Missed opportunity

[max silver]

They are just arbitrary percentile comparisons. We pull them out of our butts.

 

Jon Gray is the 20th best pitcher in baseball since 2016, with 13.1 career fWAR in only 114 games started. We have said that Nate Pearson should be expected to be about that good; we expect him to be a comfortably above average starter. The percentile expression also means that Pearson could be better than that about half the time.

 

That could be too optimistic, honestly. Pitching prospects are a bitch. It takes one major arm injury to ruin them, sometimes.

 

You could nitpick that he has a better than 5% shot to be Syndergaard I suppose, maybe Pearson has a better chance to be that good, but you're talking about a pitcher with 6 WAR upside, who has been top 10 in total fWAR since he entered the league while missing essentially an entire season to injury.

 

I wonder if the healthy version of Luis Severino might be a suitable choice for an optimistic Nate Pearson potential outcome. Although Severino has sustained multiple arm issues the last few years, so that also shows how fickle it is to try to project these guys.

[Laika]

I wonder if the healthy version of Luis Severino might be a suitable choice for an optimistic Nate Pearson potential outcome. Although Severino has sustained multiple arm issues the last few years, so that also shows how fickle it is to try to project these guys.

 

Stuff wise, it's an appropriate comparison. Severino at his best is about the same as Thor at his best. Really, Thor just seemed like such a good body comp too - they are both 6'6" tanks. Although, Syndergaard is more chiselled and handsome and Nate has some fat power going on. Severino is not as physical, right.

[WryNGinger]

Part of me likes Kirk but part of me feels it is just lazy and disrespectful to not honor the process of being an MLB player. Like seriously...do some sprints, eat right and show some understanding that you were blessed with talent and need to put the f***ing reps in. The organization showed faith in you...put down the bag of jellybeans and go get some exercise.

[EnglishJay]

He was around 250 in Lansing last season, now.. I don’t know. Some sites still have him @ 220 Haha

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen a couple good outings from Tice. To be honest it’s just very hard to project bullpen arms, this system is really deep. I was barely able to slip in mentions for guys like Jackson Rees on my personal list

 

Tyce ended up in a bucket full of pure relief prospects that were very difficult to justify ranking. We tend to value upside, so even the players in the 40-50 range that have a remote chance to be starters or average regulars ended up more appealing than Tice and the other relievers (Jackson Rees, Brad Wilson, Cre Finfrock, Parker Caracci, Kirby Snead, Jackson McLelland, Bryan Baker are a few of the other RP bucket names.)

 

A relief prospect needs to have huge f***ing stuff to be a noteworthy prospect. We ranked some arms who are certainly only MLB relievers, but even they have been MiLB starters (Romano, Perez, Yennsy Diaz, etc.) Most good MLB relievers were minor league starters. I think the only arm in Toronto's projected pen who was only a reliever in the minors is Ken Giles - the rest were basically MiLB starters.

 

Thanks. Fair enough. I know little of him, but ask because he seems to be getting plenty of exposure during ST and was getting some promising feedback on the comms yesterday.

[Laika]

Part of me likes Kirk but part of me feels it is just lazy and disrespectful to not honor the process of being an MLB player. Like seriously...do some sprints, eat right and show some understanding that you were blessed with talent and need to put the f***ing reps in. The organization showed faith in you...put down the bag of jellybeans and go get some exercise.

 

One of the beautiful things about baseball is that success can come in all shapes and sizes. It's the professional sport of physical diversity and inclusion. Altuve, Judge, Bartolo Colon, Jim Abbott, Eddie Gaedel, Pete Gray, Satchel Paige, Jamie Moyer, Moe Berg, Pat Venditte, RA Dickey, Phil Niekro, and every other knuckler, etc. etc. etc.

 

I don't think Kirk owes any kind of debt to the Blue Jays. They've probably paid him like, $50,000 total during his four years of professional employment.

 

There's also an argument to be made for not fixing what isn't broken. MLB has a history of fat catchers, so there might be some unexpected merit to playing fat. He's a bigger target back there! It helps him block the plate! Maybe hitting fat helps with power a little bit?

 

#PlayFat

[Spanky99]

Thanks. Fair enough. I know little of him, but ask because he seems to be getting plenty of exposure during ST and was getting some promising feedback on the comms yesterday.

 

Just cause he isn't a ranked prospect doesn't mean we won't see him in the MLB, these guys just sneak by under the radar.

[Ryu In My House]

You're extremely slender, but that doesn't mean someone heavier is fat. I'm built a lot like Manoah at 6'6 230 with a 46 inch chest. I could perhaps lose 10 pounds, but would start to be unhealthy after that.

 

I'm 6"2" and 230...and I box, wrestle and work out a ton.

 

According to BMI charts I am morbidly obese. But I wear pants with a waist of 34.

 

Weight is like ERA, it's a stat, but it barely means anything compared to other more advanced metrics. IMO.

[Brownie19]

I'm 6"2" and 230...and I box, wrestle and work out a ton.

 

According to BMI charts I am morbidly obese. But I wear pants with a waist of 34.

 

Weight is like ERA, it's a stat, but it barely means anything compared to other more advanced metrics. IMO.

 

#humblebrag

[Carlos Danger]

Speaking of body types, I keep seeing all these scouting reports saying X player who is currently a SS will probably not stick and will need to play 3rd, 2nd etc..

 

I think in a lot of cases that evaluation is 10 yrs too early. Yes, later in their career maybe, but they have proven success at the position and just because of body type scouts are already changing their position, nothing to do with performance.

 

We are not talking about Vlad jr here. We are talking about Bo Bichette and Josh Groshans as two that are close to home. A really good CF I remember was Kirby Puckett. short and fat. I think they said Jeter (Derek)didn't profile as a SS either, body type...

 

Not blaming you guys, I think the prospect list is great. I am just making a comment in general.

 

Thanks for putting it together.

[Brownie19]

Speaking of body types, I keep seeing all these scouting reports saying X player who is currently a SS will probably not stick and will need to play 3rd, 2nd etc..

 

I think in a lot of cases that evaluation is 10 yrs too early. Yes, later in their career maybe, but they have proven success at the position and just because of body type scouts are already changing their position, nothing to do with performance.

 

We are not talking about Vlad jr here. We are talking about Bo Bichette and Josh Groshans as two that are close to home. A really good CF I remember was Kirby Puckett. short and fat. I think they said Jeter (Derek)didn't profile as a SS either, body type...

 

Not blaming you guys, I think the prospect list is great. I am just making a comment in general.

 

Thanks for putting it together.

 

People who are projecting positional changes are simply playing the odds. Based on his profile, there's probably an 80% chance that Groshan's moves to 3rd base by the time he reaches the majors. Will there be a handful of players who ultimately prove they can stick (like Bo - who's really changed his body type since being drafted)? Of course there will be. That doesn't mean scouting reports should stop suggesting these players will ultimately move positions. I mean a scouting report in general is a summary of assumptions and projections based on previous data...

[Laika]

Speaking of body types, I keep seeing all these scouting reports saying X player who is currently a SS will probably not stick and will need to play 3rd, 2nd etc..

 

I think in a lot of cases that evaluation is 10 yrs too early. Yes, later in their career maybe, but they have proven success at the position and just because of body type scouts are already changing their position, nothing to do with performance.

 

We are not talking about Vlad jr here. We are talking about Bo Bichette and Josh Groshans as two that are close to home. A really good CF I remember was Kirby Puckett. short and fat. I think they said Jeter (Derek)didn't profile as a SS either, body type...

 

Not blaming you guys, I think the prospect list is great. I am just making a comment in general.

 

Thanks for putting it together.

 

Yeah this is a fairly common issue. I mean, most players can't stick at SS and they do slide down the spectrum, so it's true to kind of generalize that many iffy SS prospects will end up elsewhere, but prospectors are sometimes a little quick to just assume that certain specific players won't stick.

[BlueRocky]

It does happen quite often. I guess it has to do prospects that get drafted, often played shortstop as an amateur. Most guys that are a little bit bigger like Groshans tend to get tagged with moving to third base by default even pre-draft. It’s a game of projections.

 

Groshans has actually done okay as a shortstop during the time I saw him in Lansing. He played some 3B in rookie ball during the draft year, but stuck at SS last season before the foot injury. The arm is strong enough to player shortstop and third. Some larger guys have made it work like Tulo.

 

Bichette has a better shot sticking at short, but he made the most strides defensively during double-A, you never know a year from now.

 

In a similar conversation, Martinez and Hiraldo I haven’t seen much but will look forward to it when they reach Lansing. I hear Hiraldo’s got some jets, but he’s more likely a second baseman. Orelvis Martinez supposedly has a decent arm and has played both SS and 3B. But yeah this system is loaded with infielders, and a step down we have guys like Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez, Leonardo Jimenez, Santiago Espinal. And Even further down we have new prospects like Estiven Machado and Rikelvin de Castro.

[Laika]

Sometimes it is an organizational projection, too. Or even a league-wide depth projection.

 

The Blue Jays have one starting shortstop and there are only 30 starting MLB shortstop jobs to go around. Even if a guy like Jordan Groshans could, in theory, handle SS without embarrassing himself, he's almost certainly a 3B on the Blue Jays unless Bichette gets traded.

 

So it's not entirely up to the specific player. They are always getting pressure from other teammates and players UP the defensive spectrum - guys who are better defenders at the premium position they might be able to play. When Vlad ultimately gets moved off of 3B, it might not be because he utterly fails. It might just be because someone else who is a solid 3B has pushed their way onto the roster.

 

It's a bit like position plinko.

[spats]

Kirk listed at 5'9"? I'd say more like 5'5. I've seen him in Dunedin. I'm 5'10" and he comes up to my shoulders but he looks good in the batting cage. Looks like he's put on a few more lbs. Good read btw...heading down to Dunedin in 3 weeks, anxious to see the new stadium and watch some A ball.

[Boxcar]

Sometimes it is an organizational projection, too. Or even a league-wide depth projection.

 

The Blue Jays have one starting shortstop and there are only 30 starting MLB shortstop jobs to go around. Even if a guy like Jordan Groshans could, in theory, handle SS without embarrassing himself, he's almost certainly a 3B on the Blue Jays unless Bichette gets traded.

 

So it's not entirely up to the specific player. They are always getting pressure from other teammates and players UP the defensive spectrum - guys who are better defenders at the premium position they might be able to play. When Vlad ultimately gets moved off of 3B, it might not be because he utterly fails. It might just be because someone else who is a solid 3B has pushed their way onto the roster.

 

It's a bit like position plinko.

 

Alex Bregman is a prime example of this

[Frag]

Captain Kirk FTW!

[Grant77]

Alex Bregman is a prime example of this

 

Manny Machado too

[Ryu In My House]

#humblebrag

 

But I am 50. I will still die way earlier than most of you, good shape or not.

[P2F]

And here's the accompanying podcast episode for this list.

 

Episode 40: The One About Our Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects

 

https://bit.ly/2SW2FgR

[Spanky99]

But I am 50. I will still die way earlier than most of you, good shape or not.

 

Nah, I think I got you beat. I'm younger, lol.

[Beans]

You're extremely slender, but that doesn't mean someone heavier is fat. I'm built a lot like Manoah at 6'6 230 with a 46 inch chest. I could perhaps lose 10 pounds, but would start to be unhealthy after that.

 

Not extremely slender at all, Grant. My waist is between 33 and 34 and my chest is 42 (unless it's a grandfather fit, in which case I'm a 40). That's athletic, not skinny. But I see your larger point, that it's not terribly obese. Still, not every pitcher built like C.C. Sabathia goes on to have a career like CC's, so I hope Manoah starts taking care of himself enough to avoid gratuitous fat-man injuries.

 

I'd say at 6'6 you could even go down to 215, but whatever works for you :-)

[Olerud363]

It does happen quite often. I guess it has to do prospects that get drafted, often played shortstop as an amateur. Most guys that are a little bit bigger like Groshans tend to get tagged with moving to third base by default even pre-draft. It’s a game of projections.

 

Groshans has actually done okay as a shortstop during the time I saw him in Lansing. He played some 3B in rookie ball during the draft year, but stuck at SS last season before the foot injury. The arm is strong enough to player shortstop and third. Some larger guys have made it work like Tulo.

 

Bichette has a better shot sticking at short, but he made the most strides defensively during double-A, you never know a year from now.

 

In a similar conversation, Martinez and Hiraldo I haven’t seen much but will look forward to it when they reach Lansing. I hear Hiraldo’s got some jets, but he’s more likely a second baseman. Orelvis Martinez supposedly has a decent arm and has played both SS and 3B. But yeah this system is loaded with infielders, and a step down we have guys like Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez, Leonardo Jimenez, Santiago Espinal. And Even further down we have new prospects like Estiven Machado and Rikelvin de Castro.

 

How have the shifts changed all this?? Does any one of the three still have that much more responsibility?? Third basemen now play where th traditional short stop used to, a good percentage of the time. Second basemen can end up in medium right field where they have to range more and make longer throws.

[Spanky99]

How have the shifts changed all this?? Does any one of the three still have that much more responsibility?? Third basemen now play where th traditional short stop used to, a good percentage of the time. Second basemen can end up in medium right field where they have to range more and make longer throws.

 

All metrics take this into account now, I'd go with SC as the best measurement.