General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Laika]

"This team is not very likely to win 83 to 85 games. Instead, they’ll probably win 75 or 90. If it doesn’t work, they’ll be sellers at the deadline and go young in the second half. "

 

Come on, Cameron

 

Narrator: The Mariners would win 61 games in 2010. With the 2nd overall pick in the 2011 draft they selected Danny Hultzen, who would never throw an MLB pitch for Seattle.

[Laika]

#6

 

"The 2010 Mariners are not a great team. It’s pretty easy to look at the roster and find problems"

 

"The Mariners farm system isn’t among baseball’s best"

 

But I really like the front office's gumption!

[Jimcanuck]

I have a wait and see attitude regarding the Mariners. We've seen them struggle to develop hitters for a long time and that is the strength of their farm system. Evan White's season didn't inspire much confidence.

 

Evan White's first 1/3 of a season doesn't tell much. He was never an elite prospect. Also, he was a J4L fantasy target.

[Grant77]

Evan White's first 1/3 of a season doesn't tell much. He was never an elite prospect. Also, he was a J4L fantasy target.

 

Perhaps not, but striking out over 40% of the time is concerning. He's certainly not the only example of a high level hitting prospect that hasn't panned out for the Mariners.

 

Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Jesus Montero, Mike Zunino, DJ Peterson, Alex Jackson. I'm probably missing someone, but Ketel Marte might be their biggest success of the last decade and they traded him.

[Jimcanuck]

Perhaps not, but striking out over 40% of the time is concerning. He's certainly not the only example of a high level hitting prospect that hasn't panned out for the Mariners.

 

Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Jesus Montero, Mike Zunino, DJ Peterson, Alex Jackson. I'm probably missing someone, but Ketel Marte might be their biggest success of the last decade and they traded him.

 

True, for some reason the M's have had bad results with their prospects. But the quantity of elite talent they've compiled, no way they are all duds.

[Brownie19]

M's won't be a loser team for much longer, unless they really f*** up what they've got going on now

 

Did I miss something? What do they have going on now?

[King]

Did I miss something? What do they have going on now?

Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Noelvi Marte

[Brownie19]

Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Noelvi Marte

 

I guess. Plus Gilbert and then Lewis, Crawford, Sheffield and White at the ML level.

 

I guess that's something.

[Laika]

I guess. Plus Gilbert and then Lewis, Crawford, Sheffield and White at the ML level.

 

I guess that's something.

 

And Emerson Hancock.

 

They have a fantastic farm system, no doubt, but it doesn't take much for a prospect crop to disappoint. If Gilbert blows his arm out and Kelenic or Rodriguez end up as just an average player that probably normalizes the whole crop. Noelvi Marte is a high risk prospect even right now and Rodriguez is far enough away that he has to be considered at least moderate risk.

 

Toronto had a similar crop a year or two ago: Vlad and Bo were comparable to Rodriguez and Kelenic. You could probably have comped Marte to someone to Groshans in context. Pearson might have been better than any of their current P prospects.

[Jimcanuck]

Don't be sleeping on George Kirby either.

 

BA ranks the M's farm 3rd, after Tampa Bay and San Diego. Toronto is 4th.

 

The farm is how dynasties are built!

[jerb]

 

 

 

Kaitlyn McGrath

@kaitlyncmcgrath

 

#BlueJays lose Dany Jimenez to the A’s in the second round of the Rule 5 draft, which is the second straight year he has been selected in the Rule 5 draft.

 

#BlueJays didn’t participate in the draft because their 40-man is full.

 

 

Kaitlyn McGrath

@kaitlyncmcgrath

 

#BlueJays lose pitcher Jake Fishman from Double A roster to the Marlins, pitcher Zach Jackson to A’s and C Yorman Rodriguez to Padres in the first round of minor-league portion of Rule 5. With their pick, Toronto selected INF Sebastian Espino from the Mets Double A roster

 

 

Scott Mitchell

@ScottyMitchTSN

 

RHP Justin Dillon selected by Mets.

[TheHurl]

Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Noelvi Marte

 

Well I can count two busts there

[TheHurl]

Rogers stock price is down 8% from pre pandemic levels. I love the enthusiasm and I think they will spend. Like you said we'll see how it plays out. I don't think the dream XMAS scenario plays out, but 40 to 50 mil might happen.

 

Because of their gaming division expenses. This is an investment as they are going to make billions on gambling

[TheHurl]

Vladdy want to play 3B

 

Glad to see you alive. Hope your family stayed safe through the pandemic and your wife managed to get some rest

[saskjayfan]

Because of their gaming division expenses. This is an investment as they are going to make billions on gambling

 

I doubt investors are concerned with capex. There year over top line was down although much less so in q3. In a absurdly low interest environment the market has chased growth and this is why they are down.

[Jimcanuck]

Sarris at the Athletic predicting the Jays sign Sugano 5/$50

[Laika]

Sarris at the Athletic predicting the Jays sign Sugano 5/$50

 

Tomoyuki Sugano, Starting Pitcher

Though there are a fair number of similarities between right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who just posted from the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, and Tanaka — they had near-identical NPB stats, and Sugano is a slider-first guy with a good split-finger — there are two key differences. The first is that Sugano hasn’t played in America with the ball the way it is now. That means there’s more variance to his outcomes, which is both good and bad — he could be better than Tanaka; he could be worse. That variance might make him more attractive to a team willing to roll the dice that they get a No. 2 starter at a No. 4 price.

 

The other is that the posting fee is not counted towards the luxury tax, which means that teams close to the luxury tax are incentivized to go get a player like this. That would normally mean that Sugano would be headed for a team like the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox. Here’s the thing, though: The only team within $30 million of the luxury tax is the Dodgers, who have the big leagues’ second-best starting rotation by projections, and boast Rookie of the Year candidate Tony Gonsolin as a sixth starter right now. And they’re so close that if Sugano ends up costing what the crowd has projected on Jon Becker’s aggregations, they wouldn’t have much wiggle room to sign a third baseman afterward.

 

So maybe we can focus on teams that would be interested in potentially adding a No. 2 starter at a below-average cost. That sounds like Toronto and San Diego here. Are there aspects of those cities that might matter? The team? Or will it just be who is willing to spend the most money? This will be fascinating to follow, but it seems as if there are probably four finalists right now.

 

Finalists: Padres, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers

Winner: Blue Jays sign Tomoyuki Sugano to a five-year, $50 million contract, plus a $9.4 million posting fee

[connorp]

Seriously f*** Cohen and his Mets. Feels like bomb is going to drop this week

[Laika]

Pretty interesting that Eno even has Sugano in his top 10 free agents list. Comps him to Tanaka, says his outcome range is #2 SP to #4 SP.

[G-Snarls]

Seriously f*** Cohen and his Mets. Feels like bomb is going to drop this week

 

They probanly get Springer. Goddammit. Happy f'n Hannukah.

[Laika]

I really think Eno is right - Toronto is keeping tabs on all of the bats because they want to be able to catch a nice deal at the end of the offseason, if there is such a deal. I don't really think Toronto is going to go hard for any of these big bats. I do think they will spend, I just think it will be distributed - something like Sugano, Justin Turner, and a nice reliever or two. They are in on everyone because they have roster flexibility. The players they end up with will be the guys who are willing to sign value contracts.

[glory]

The SP market is so underwhelming outside of Bauer. I wonder what Sugano ends up getting. He did play on the same team as Yamaguchi so I'm sure the Jays are familiar with him.

[Brownie19]

Tomoyuki Sugano will be 32 next year. I hope we don't need to sign him to a 5 year deal? 2-3 years seems fine.

[Orgfiller]

Tomoyuki Sugano will be 32 next year. I hope we don't need to sign him to a 5 year deal? 2-3 years seems fine.

 

For what it's worth he'll be in his age 31 season even if he'll be 32 at the end of the year.

[Spanky99]

Longenhagen on Sugano...

 

Sugano has a 2.34 career ERA in seven NPB seasons, all as a starter. In 2020 (at age-31), his fastball velo gained a tick on average, and now sits parked at 93 mph. It is one of five offerings in Sugano's arsenal, the best of which are his splitter (which he threw more of this season) and a slider that's a 45-grade pitch in a vacuum but plays because Sugano locates it so consistently. He has sort of an odd windup. His torso rotates clockwise while his hips and lower half remain stationary, almost like the two halves of a twisted Oreo coming apart, before things normalize and look like a typical delivery. It's a little deceptive and, along with fantastic command, helps Sugano's average stuff play. He'll likely plug into the middle of a major league rotation immediately.

[saskjayfan]

JT Realmuto's market has really evaporated. The Mets seem like they are going to overpay to get Springer. I feel like we should trade Danny Jansen to the Brewers for Josh Hader and swoop in and sign JTR for 5 and 90 maybe less.

[Carlos Danger]

JT Realmuto's market has really evaporated. The Mets seem like they are going to overpay to get Springer. I feel like we should trade Danny Jansen to the Brewers for Josh Hader and swoop in and sign JTR for 5 and 90 maybe less.

 

Dombrowski is back. He will keep JT

[G-Snarls]

Dombrowski is back. He will keep JT

 

They really should have anyway

 

Owner wanted him extended from day 1 so he must be willing to pay the price

[Spanky99]

5/90 for Realmuto??? That's 35 million less than what he's looking for, lol.

[connorp]

5/90 for Realmuto??? That's 35 million less than what he's looking for, lol.

 

And DJL is looking for 5 years. Agents need to try bro. Precedent isn’t on JT’s side. 5/100 would be fair normally. I hope Jays wait if that’s their big move. As others have said, there’s always next year’s crop

 

I’m also on Laila’s side that Jays already made a splash in past with solid hitting, really good defensive C... been there, done that. Hope they get a big bat somewhere else