Blue Jays have met with reps for Jake Odorizzi and have legit interest

[Spanky99]

It was fun while it lasted.

 

When's the QO Deadline to accept? I can't find it in the important dates log in MLB...

 

Today maybe? Abreu just accepted his no brainer decision.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, so the deadline was a few minutes ago...

 

The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have turned them down. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter) that Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Gerrit Cole (Astros), Marcell Ozuna (Cardinals), Anthony Rendon (Nationals), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, and Zack Wheeler (Mets) all rejected the one-year, $17.8MM offer from their respective former clubs. Josh Donaldson also turned down the Braves’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets.

[wk680]

It's not an either or.

It's not just the player picked, it's about $1.5m draft slot money given up, limiting the flexibility with picking players in later rounds.

If this front office has done one thing undeniably well it's drafting. Limiting their flexibility is therefore not smart.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between making the playoffs next year or not.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between World Series or not, in a few years when we are competing.

I don't think anyone is saying we can't possible sign anyone with a QO or that it'd be a disaster if we did.

Anyone saying there is no discernible impact to signing a free agent with a QO attached is wrong.

 

Did I miss anything?

 

I don't see anyone claiming that losing compensation draft pick is irrelevant. The point is that it is a worthwhile price to pay for a team that is already well stocked in the farm system with pitching prospects but is almost completely devoid of proven starting pitching.

[Spanky99]

I don't see anyone claiming that losing compensation draft pick is irrelevant. The point is that it is a worthwhile price to pay for a team that is already well stocked in the farm system with pitching prospects but is almost completely devoid of proven starting pitching.

 

This was explained before fellas, that value of compensation equates to everything as well.

[wk680]

That's the way I see it. If we're going to lose a pick, go big. Go after Cole. Go after Rendon. Wheeler would be fine too on the less expensive end since he has the velocity and performance of a front end starter when healthy. He also didn't have 14 of his 30 starts against the AL Central in 2019 like Odorizzi did either.

 

There has to be some level of expectation when signing a qualified FA. It can't be "this guy can help us in the next 3 years". It has to be "this guy is going to be one of the best players on our next competitive team" type of signings, and Odorizzi doesn't inspire that type of confidence in me. Not after one 4 win season and a history prior to that of 2ish war performance.

 

That's all great in theory. but in practice the Jays are highly unlikely to sign the likes of those top tier free agents Cole and Rendon. the estimated value loss of a 2nd round pick ($5M ?) is almost negligible versus the risk in tying up a $250M commitment in one guy who will be 36 years old at the end of that mega contract.

[Spanky99]

If's and But's... lol.

[saskjayfan]

That's all great in theory. but in practice the Jays are highly unlikely to sign the likes of those top tier free agents Cole and Rendon. the estimated value loss of a 2nd round pick ($5M ?) is almost negligible versus the risk in tying up a $250M commitment in one guy who will be 36 years old at the end of that mega contract.

 

yes, the angst of having the best pitcher in baseball on my team would be too much to bare.

[wk680]

yes, the angst of having the best pitcher in baseball on my team would be too much to bare.

 

These mega contracts for 30 year olds (or in this case 29) rarely work out. The risk of tying that money up is real (ask the Red Sox with Price) and the risk-averse Shatkins boys would never do it. What you or I think of it is irrelevant to what will actually happen (or not happen in this case).

[wk680]

If's and But's... lol.

 

If Cole was signed by the Jays to a $200M+ contract and started declining immediately (like Price, Pujols, etc did right after signing) you might not be laughing so hard

[Key22]

I don't see anyone claiming that losing compensation draft pick is irrelevant. The point is that it is a worthwhile price to pay for a team that is already well stocked in the farm system with pitching prospects but is almost completely devoid of proven starting pitching.

 

The pick has a monetary value but it also has the value of possibly becoming a future all-star. This is supposedly a deep draft and the 2nd round pick may matter more than usual.

 

If you were going to sign a future hall of fame starter - fine but Odirizzi is another Marcus Stroman.

 

I suppose the Jays might think Odirizzi has picked up his game and might be a buy low future Ace - he did have a 4.3 WAR

 

I like the guy but it's moot now. The best pitchers without surrendering a draft pick seems to be:

 

Age and WAR

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8)

Homer Bailey (34, 2.9)

Michael Pineda (30, 2.7)

Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5)

Cole Hamels (36, 2.5)

Tanner Roark (33, 2.0)

Wade Miley (33, 2.0)

Brett Anderson (32, 2.0)

Iván Nova (33, 2.0)

Martín Pérez (29, 1.9)

Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8)

Jason Vargas (37, 1.8)

Rick Porcello (31, 1.8)

Julio Teheran (29, 1.6)

Jordan Lyles (29, 1.6)

Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4)

Rich Hill (40, 0.9)

Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8)

Matt Moore (31, 0.5)

Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1)

Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)

[saskjayfan]

These mega contracts for 30 year olds (or in this case 29) rarely work out. The risk of tying that money up is real (ask the Red Sox with Price) and the risk-averse Shatkins boys would never do it. What you or I think of it is irrelevant to what will actually happen (or not happen in this case).

 

Ask the nationals about Scherzer...year older in his free agency year. His contract ends at 36. The risk of never having elite players on your team is you never win the championship. It's a rare occurrence for teams like the Royals to win it all.

[wk680]

The pick has a monetary value but it also has the value of possibly becoming a future all-star. This is supposedly a deep draft and the 2nd round pick may matter more than usual.

 

If you were going to sign a future hall of fame starter - fine but Odirizzi is another Marcus Stroman.

 

I suppose the Jays might think Odirizzi has picked up his game and might be a buy low future Ace - he did have a 4.3 WAR

 

I like the guy but it's moot now. The best pitchers without surrendering a draft pick seems to be:

 

Age and WAR

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8)

Homer Bailey (34, 2.9)

Michael Pineda (30, 2.7)

Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5)

Cole Hamels (36, 2.5)

Tanner Roark (33, 2.0)

Wade Miley (33, 2.0)

Brett Anderson (32, 2.0)

Iván Nova (33, 2.0)

Martín Pérez (29, 1.9)

Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8)

Jason Vargas (37, 1.8)

Rick Porcello (31, 1.8)

Julio Teheran (29, 1.6)

Jordan Lyles (29, 1.6)

Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4)

Rich Hill (40, 0.9)

Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8)

Matt Moore (31, 0.5)

Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1)

Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)

 

Doesn't that number of $5M they are throwing around for the value of the draft pick account for the (small) possibility of the player becoming a star and the resulting excess value of that unlikely outcome.

[wk680]

Ask the nationals about Scherzer...same age. His contract ends at 36. The risk of never having elite players on your team is you never win the championship. It's a rare occurrence for teams like the Royals to win it all.

 

Yes and I am not necessarily even arguing against the signing of a big time FA. My argument is that people are so obsessing over the loss of a 2nd round draft pick and associated signing slot money that they are saying: if we do it let's go big because we don't want to have that lost draft pick 'go to waste' on a 'mediocre 2-3 WAR player' when in reality the $250M is throwing caution to the wind.

[Spanky99]

If Cole was signed by the Jays to a $200M+ contract and started declining immediately (like Price, Pujols, etc did right after signing) you might not be laughing so hard

 

Uhmm... nah, I wouldn't, trades are in context. I'd sign Cole all day.

[Jimcanuck]

Uhmm... nah, I wouldn't, trades are in context. I'd sign Cole all day.

 

$60M, $50M, $40M, $30M, $25M, $20M, $15M lands the Jays Cole?

[Spanky99]

Wheeler and Ryu... git r done!

[Spanky99]

$60M, $50M, $40M, $30M, $25M, $20M, $15M lands the Jays Cole?

 

You talking about differing money? Your front load feddish runs deep, bro.

[Jimcanuck]

You talking about differing money?

 

No, front loading a 7 year deal

 

Got to figure the $25M in year 5 is like $18-19M today.

[saskjayfan]

Wheeler and Ryu... git r done!

 

There isn't a GM in all of baseball with smaller balls than Ross Atkins. What make's you think he'd have the courage to sign Ryu. Someone will go 4 years. 4 years 13 mil AAV for Ryu..scare's the crap out of Atkins....Chase anderson at one year 9 mil, followed by the Chase Anderson equivalent for 3 straight 1 year contracts at 9 mil a season is more Atkins speed.

[Spanky99]

No, front loading a 7 year deal

 

Got to figure the $25M in year 5 is like $18-19M today.

 

You missed my edit, lol

[Spanky99]

There isn't a GM in all of baseball with smaller balls than Ross Atkins. What make's you think he'd have the courage to sign Ryu. Someone will go 4 years. 4 years 13 mil AAV for Ryu..scare's the crap out of Atkins....Chase anderson at one year 9 mil, followed by the Chase Anderson equivalent for 3 straight 1 year contracts at 9 mil a season is more Atkins speed.

 

WAT??? lol... we're not in Cleveland anymore!

[saskjayfan]

No, front loading a 7 year deal

 

Got to figure the $25M in year 5 is like $18-19M today.

 

More like 23...but I do actually like your front loaded idea.

[saskjayfan]

WAT??? lol... we're not in Cleveland anymore!

 

then why does our payroll resemble the marlins. I'll bet you my house the Jays don't sign Ryu. Committing four years to an older pitcher with an injury history. Are you mad?

[wk680]

then why does our payroll resemble the marlins. I'll bet you my house the Jays don't sign Ryu. Committing four years to an older pitcher with an injury history. Are you mad?

 

Isn't the problem that they are under marching orders from Rogers to not lose money on operating the Jays?

[Spanky99]

then why does our payroll resemble the marlins. I'll bet you my house the Jays don't sign Ryu. Committing four years to an older pitcher with an injury history. Are you mad?

 

It's Nov 14th/'19 you need help, man. Seriously.

[Spanky99]

Isn't the problem that they are under marching orders from Rogers to not lose money on operating the Jays?

 

Add this guy to my last post...

[Spanky99]

I think Rogers bought 80% of the Blue Jays for 200M and they're now worth 1.5B, so I think Rogers will be ok.

 

Even if Rogers sold that land and team, it would be a great asset.

[glory]

That's all great in theory. but in practice the Jays are highly unlikely to sign the likes of those top tier free agents Cole and Rendon. the estimated value loss of a 2nd round pick ($5M ?) is almost negligible versus the risk in tying up a $250M commitment in one guy who will be 36 years old at the end of that mega contract.

 

They won't be in on Cole or Rendon, but my point was for where the Jays are right now, they need elite talent any way they can get it. If you're going to lose a pick, then lose it on an elite player. Not Odorizzi types. The one thing we know Atkins/his scouts can do at an elite level is draft. Don't mess with that just for a rotation improvement. Do it for a core player.

 

MLBTR is predicting Ryu getting 3/54 and Keuchel getting 3/39 (probably on the low side there). Neither one costs a pick and would instantly upgrade the rotation just as much if not more than Odorizzi would have. Go for deals like that if you're avoiding the elite players. All it costs is money and the Jays have it to spend. Probably need to tack on an extra year or more AAV but I'm sure they have a threshold for what they consider to be reasonable.

[Spanky99]

They won't be in on Cole or Rendon, but my point was for where the Jays are right now, they need elite talent any way they can get it. If you're going to lose a pick, then lose it on an elite player. Not Odorizzi types. The one thing we know Atkins/his scouts can do at an elite level is draft. Don't mess with that just for a rotation improvement. Do it for a core player.

 

MLBTR is predicting Ryu getting 3/54 and Keuchel getting 3/39 (probably on the low side there). Neither one costs a pick and would instantly upgrade the rotation just as much if not more than Odorizzi would have. Go for deals like that if you're avoiding the elite players. All it costs is money and the Jays have it to spend. Probably need to tack on an extra year or more AAV but I'm sure they have a threshold for what they consider to be reasonable.

 

Odorizzi accepted his QO, this was still worth it.

[Brownie19]

then why does our payroll resemble the marlins. I'll bet you my house the Jays don't sign Ryu. Committing four years to an older pitcher with an injury history. Are you mad?

 

Because this team wasn't in a position for sustained success. We certainly seem to be following the Astros blueprint. We're just now at the time when we start to spend to add to the core (+ there's another wave of prospects on their way).

 

This isn't that hard to follow.