Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Abomination]

But Wheeler's posted the 9th most combined WAR the past 2 seasons...what's wrong with his results?

 

I'm with Ray on this one. 5 years $75M to $90M - sign me up.

 

His WAR is likely significantly inflated from reality due to FIP / xFIP difference. He's basically a 4 xFIP pitcher as it currently stands. I don't like the idea of giving 20M / year for that. 15M I can get behind.

[Ray]

I'd rather Kyle Gibson than Jake Odorizzi, honestly. Will be significantly cheaper, no draft pick compensation, and Gibson has posted better xFIP's the last two seasons than Odorizzi.

 

Sign Gibson to a $9M AAV deal instead of the $15M AAV that Odorizzi would've gotten. Use the difference towards someone like Wheeler/Ryu.

[Spanky99]

Unless Wheeler is closer to the 15M / year range, I really feel like he's a mistake. Some guys just don't put it together, whether from bad instruction or stubborness. He actually seems a lot like Bauer. All the talent in the world, but the results just don't match.

 

Speaking of Bauer, in 2017 and particularly 2018, he finally breaks out by doing what? Increasing the usage of his best pitches and decreasing the usage of his worst. What does he do this year? Dramatically increases the usage of his two worst pitches and produces a 4.33 xFIP as a reward.

 

Again your choice of pitchers baffles me.

[Spanky99]

I'd rather Kyle Gibson than Jake Odorizzi, honestly. Will be significantly cheaper, no draft pick compensation, and Gibson has posted better xFIP's the last two seasons than Odorizzi.

 

Sign Gibson to a $9M AAV deal instead of the $15M AAV that Odorizzi would've gotten. Use the difference towards someone like Wheeler/Ryu.

 

[Abomination]

I'd rather Kyle Gibson than Jake Odorizzi, honestly. Will be significantly cheaper, no draft pick compensation, and Gibson has posted better xFIP's the last two seasons than Odorizzi.

 

Sign Gibson to a $9M AAV deal instead of the $15M AAV that Odorizzi would've gotten. Use the difference towards someone like Wheeler/Ryu.

 

Aside from his home run rate, I'd kind of prefer Gibson to Odorizzi even at even money, let alone a few million less. Hell, sign both, and forbid Gibson from ever throwing another 4-seamer again.

[Spanky99]

You folks think Giles would be better served as a Red Flag(elbow issues) sell high on Giles, or a similar extension to what Smith received type of extension? Man, he's been really good as a Jay.

[Jimcanuck]

You folks think Giles would be better served as a Red Flag(elbow issues) sell high on Giles, or a similar extension to what Smith received type of extension? Man, he's been really good as a Jay.

 

Relievers so volatile, unless a team is a bonafide contender, any reliever of value should be trade bait.

[Spanky99]

In the RD?

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-encouraged-guerrero-jr-s-early-off-season-conditioning/

 

Clint's page...

 

https://www.getmoresports.com/blue-jays-news-skinny-vladimir-guerrero-jr-emerges-instagram/

[ColdPint]

I think I just saw a sports blurb that said the Jays have met with Yasmani Grandal?

[Spanky99]

Relievers so volatile, unless a team is a bonafide contender, any reliever of value should be trade bait.

 

I hear you, but the only year he hasn't been right, was when we traded for him, and he's been great since that '18 blip, in consideration to what he's done in the past and for us, he's elite.

[Spanky99]

I think I just saw a sports blurb that said the Jays have met with Yasmani Grandal?

 

Yeah was posted a little bit ago. Right here...

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/9225-Offseason-Roster-Thread-2019-2020?p=1406110&viewfull=1#post1406110

 

I'm not sure what to make of that.

[Jimcanuck]

The only thing I can think of is the Jays have a good deal in place involving Jansen, with a team that needs a catcher but doesn't have the budget for Grandal.

 

 

Brendon: The Jays apprently spoke with Grandal, and have stated publicly how their young catchers are drawing a lot of trade interest. How much value do you see Jansen and McGuire having on the trade market?

 

Craig Edwards: It’s hard to tell. Yasmani Grandal is the only good FA out there. We know Willson Contreras might be available. Looking at the depth chart for catchers, we see the Rangers, Nationals, Astros, and A’s as contending teams that could use an upgrade. I’m sure those guys have some value and could get a decent piece, though I’m not sure bringing Grandal in at a position where they are relatively strong it is a great move. Trading depth to fix other areas isn’t a bad idea, but trading depth and then trying to fix that same area with money is kind of odd.

[Spanky99]

Rockies have no money and want a catcher. And Morosi said Jon Gray is floating around.

 

He's only got 2 years left though.

 

A Grandal signing would have to be imminent, in that type of process. I won't lie, I saw the same thing in my mirage of fantasy baseball dreams.

[Spanky99]

The only thing I can think of is the Jays have a good deal in place involving Jansen, with a team that needs a catcher but doesn't have the budget for Grandal.

 

 

Brendon: The Jays apprently spoke with Grandal, and have stated publicly how their young catchers are drawing a lot of trade interest. How much value do you see Jansen and McGuire having on the trade market?

 

Craig Edwards: It’s hard to tell. Yasmani Grandal is the only good FA out there. We know Willson Contreras might be available. Looking at the depth chart for catchers, we see the Rangers, Nationals, Astros, and A’s as contending teams that could use an upgrade. I’m sure those guys have some value and could get a decent piece, though I’m not sure bringing Grandal in at a position where they are relatively strong it is a great move. Trading depth to fix other areas isn’t a bad idea, but trading depth and then trying to fix that same area with money is kind of odd.

 

Is that the fangraphs dude?

[Jimcanuck]

Is that the fangraphs dude?

 

Yes, I read fangraphs. And I'm not ashamed of it.

[Spanky99]

Yes, I read fangraphs. And I'm not ashamed of it.

 

I was asking if they were the same guy, Jim. Chillax... (you'll see I thanked your post) you're fired, lol. Holy f***!

[Jimcanuck]

I was asking if they were the same guy, Jim. Chillax...

 

I'm fully chilled. Just put up the tree, and having a beer.

[Spanky99]

I'm fully chilled. Just put up the tree, and having a beer.

 

Nice, enjoy.

[TheHurl]

maybe Boxcar is still salty over getting shafted on the Pete Alonso 4 WAR thing. People shouldn't say s*** they are not willing to live up to.....

 

He should be upset. I 100% have asked admin to honour my bet. Boxcar has even been on one of the emails.

[Spanky99]

He should be upset. I 100% have asked admin to honour my bet. Boxcar has even been on one of the emails.

 

Yeah, 3 days is dumn, but day bans are cool. Hmmmmm.........

[Jimcanuck]

He should be upset. I 100% have asked admin to honour my bet. Boxcar has even been on one of the emails.

 

Did admin endorse the bet when you made it?

[Bobthe4th]

I think I just saw a sports blurb that said the Jays have met with Yasmani Grandal?

 

[Spanky99]

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

November 14, 2019, 8:24 AM

 

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Just as spring training is a time of optimism for players, the early part of the off-season is full of hope for baseball executives. Nearly every free agent remains unsigned and the trade possibilities are endless. As the GM Meetings unfold at the Omni Scottsdale Resort and Spa, plan A remains in play for all 30 teams.

 

General managers will talk a good game – not only with the public, but also behind the scenes in their meetings with agents. ‘We really like your player. Maybe there’s a fit here. We’ll definitely keep in touch.’

 

But after two of the slowest off-seasons in decades, many agents are of course skeptical that what Scott Boras called “competitive hibernation” will suddenly stop. By slow-playing the market, teams get better deals. Players tend to be more eager to sign once spring training approaches, and that leads to bargains. It drags the pace of action to a crawl, but it saves money.

 

“Why would they play this off-season any differently?” one agent asked. “Would you?”

 

No. Or… at least probably not. By and large the waiting game works. But there’s a case to be made that the Toronto Blue Jays should be more proactive than their rivals around baseball this winter. And there are some indications that they’re already operating with that idea in mind.

 

“We’ve been really aggressive talking to people, to teams,” manager Charlie Montoyo said. “We’re going to make offers to free agents and see what we can get.”

 

Montoyo, who lives in Arizona during the winter, joined a sizeable Blue Jays contingent for part of the week. On Tuesday, he was among those who met in person with some individual free agents to sell them on Toronto and the Blue Jays’ emerging core.

 

So, what does that sales pitch look like? Which players heard it? Could the team plan even more personal visits to free agents after the GM Meetings end? For now, the Blue Jays aren’t saying.

 

“The more we talk about our strategy publicly,” GM Ross Atkins said, “the worse it is for our ability to execute it.”

 

Fair enough. They could lose a lot by disclosing their plans, and there’s little to gain. But multiple agents who have engaged with the Blue Jays this winter have noticed a change in tone compared to years past. The front office isn’t simply doing diligence this time. To return to Boras’ analogy, they appear to be one of “those four, five organizations who are coming out of hibernation.”

 

Where that leads remains unclear at this stage, and it appears likely the Blue Jays will leave the GM Meetings without having made a major move. But their understanding of the starting pitching market has improved through extensive meetings and conversations with agents such as Boras. Bit by bit, teams find out where the most traction exists.

 

“You do get a very clear picture of how you as a team are being prioritized,” Atkins said Tuesday.

 

That’s not to say agents will ghost teams entirely – that would be bad business. But some audiences respond differently to the Blue Jays’ than others.

 

“Just in how much they’re engaging or how much they’re wanting to learn about the organization, how they react to offers, how they react to certain things being framed,” Atkins explained.

 

This is where the Blue Jays have a chance to make their move. From Boras clients Dallas Keuchel and Hyun-jin Ryu to qualifying offer recipients Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler to former Twins Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda, they have at least some interest in virtually every free agent starter. Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark and Wade Miley are also among those on the Blue Jays’ radar, to some degree. Most have question marks of some kind, but all would represent upgrades for Montoyo’s rotation.

 

If the Blue Jays sense that some of the pitchers they like most are receptive to deals, they have a chance to act decisively and make offers. That doesn’t mean overpaying, but at a time that the rest of the league seems content to hibernate, firm offers can be a differentiator. Over the next week or two, that could allow the Blue Jays to separate themselves and address their biggest need.

[Spanky99]

Shi Davidi

@shidavidi

November 14, 2019, 6:46 PM

 

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — There was a real opportunity for the Toronto Blue Jays with Jake Odorizzi, the all-star right-hander who took himself off the free-agent market by accepting a $17.8-million qualifying offer from the Minnesota Twins.

 

Odorizzi could have been bought out of the big one-year payoff, much the way the Atlanta Braves tempted closer Will Smith away from a return to the San Francisco Giants with a $39-million, three-year deal that includes a $13-million club option with a $1-million buyout.

 

The calculations would have been different for the 29-year-old starter, who developed a deep respect for manager Charlie Montoyo from their time together with the Tampa Bay Rays. Factoring in the compensation signing Odorizzi would have required — in the Blue Jays’ case, their second-round pick, roughly 45th overall, plus $500,000 in international bonus pool room — a three-year offer in the $45-$50 million range forces Odorizzi into a tough decision, maybe even gets a deal done.

 

That’s a pretty tough guarantee to leave on the table, even with the potential of returning to the market next year without the tether of draft-pick compensation. And from the team end, there’s still a near certainty of winning a good chunk of surplus value in that salary range, at an annual number that won’t tie anyone’s hands.

 

Clearly, no one got there, and Odorizzi is now positioned to join a free-agent class set to include Trevor Bauer, Jake Arrieta, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray next fall.

 

First baseman Jose Abreu was the only other qualified free agent to accept the $17.8 million ahead of the 5 p.m. ET deadline, but the sense all along was that he intended to remain with the Chicago White Sox. Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna all rejected the qualifying offer, as did premium aces Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, plus Madison Bumgarner and, of note to the Blue Jays, Zack Wheeler.

 

Where they go from here is unclear, although Odorizzi’s handling demonstrates that even amid their self-described aggressiveness in the market, their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady.

 

Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel are among the starters they have some degree of interest in. They’d like to add two starters to join a rotation that currently includes only one lock in Chase Anderson, and they seem intent on playing out a decision on Matt Shoemaker to the Dec. 2 tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players.

 

The Blue Jays contingent left the General Managers Meetings early Thursday having spent the past four days information-gathering on pricing and interest, intent on returning home to process what they’ve learned before moving forward.

 

“If you think of the last four days, it’s really just condensed, but it’s not something that we haven’t been doing for months and certainly over the last couple of weeks with the accessibility of the agents and players,” GM Ross Atkins told Toronto media before boarding a flight home.

 

“This four or five days is very productive because everyone’s in one place. Most agents are here, every team is here and it’s around the clock. What we do with it when we go back is we continue our process. We continue to gather information. We continue to understand where the market could be headed and where our opportunities lie.”

 

The Blue Jays had an opportunity with Odorizzi. They declined to take it. What they do next will determine whether that was a mistake or not.

 

• The signing of Will Smith pulled perhaps the top reliever off the market, which could help the Blue Jays with Ken Giles, who to this point has drawn limited interest from potential trade partners. Should bidding for him not pick up, keeping the elite closer and trying to move him at the deadline, when shutdown relievers are more coveted by contenders, may be the play for GM Ross Atkins, although it’s one fraught with risk.

 

Either way, the club’s need for starters has pulled focus away from a bullpen that Atkins says, “we’re going to need to add (to). What we do feel good about is the depth of our 40-man roster, the number of guys we feel can help our major-league team that will potentially be in triple-A. We feel we have a number of guys that will stabilize our bullpen a little bit. But we’ll be looking to increase that level of execution, higher-leverage arms that have experience doing that and the starting pitching acquisitions that we hopefully make will have some impact on that.”

 

• The loss of Tim Mayza to Tommy John surgery means the Blue Jays don’t have an obvious option for a left-hander in the bullpen for 2020. In-house options include Thomas Pannone, who could be in the triple-A Buffalo rotation, Travis Bergen, who was claimed by the San Francisco Giants in the Rule 5 and subsequently returned, and Kirby Snead, who impressed in the minors last season. But new rules will be in effect for 2020, when rosters expand to 26 men and relievers must face a minimum of three batters, likely ending the days of the LOOGY, a left-handed one-out guy.

 

“We haven’t been big on situational left-handed relievers,” says Atkins. “We like guys that can get multiple outs and for the most part deployed even our left-handed relievers that way. I think the industry, really, is using the situational reliever less and less. Not something we feel will impact us significantly.”

 

• This is a time when all manner of ideas and concepts are floated between clubs and that’s how to read the chatter about catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire and left-fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The Blue Jays, according to one rival executive, don’t seem to be actively shopping either, but would consider moving them for a pitcher with similar contractual control.

 

To that end, they did meet with the representatives for Yasmani Grandal, as first reported by ESPN’s Marly Rivera, but that was far more about due diligence and information gathering than groundwork for a run at the free-agent catcher.

 

• The one starter the Blue Jays have acquired this off-season is Chase Anderson and Brewers general manager David Stearns described the right-hander as “a guy who was incredibly consistent over his time in Milwaukee. Whatever we asked of him, he did. He was a consummate professional and a guy I would certainly expect to contribute to the Blue Jays and for the fan base to really like.”

 

Anderson’s curveball usage shrank by nearly eight per cent in 2019 from the previous two seasons and one area of opportunity the Blue Jays see for him is in increased usage of the pitch. The Brewers worked with him on that, with Stearns saying, “Chase is unquestionably at his best self when he’s got a breaking ball that’s working. It complements the rest of his arsenal. There were times in Milwaukee when the breaking ball was a weapon for him and there were times when he lost the feel of it. So I think that’s a really good goal for him.”

 

• A highlight of every major baseball off-season gathering are the one-liners delivered by superagent Scott Boras. And while this year his barbs were more reserved than usual, he still delivered a few gems. For example, on his view that not enough teams are trying to compete: “We have to have a league about winning, a league about competition. When you go to the zoo and half the bears are asleep, you’re not able to enjoy the zoo as it should be.”

 

On the interest in ace Gerrit Cole: “If this were major-league Christmas, we’d be looking at 30 stockings that would clearly want a lump of Cole.”

 

And on client Nick Castellanos: “Old St. Nick delivers once a year. Young St. Nick delivers all season. You’ve got a pretty good market for that kind of player.”

 

• The Blue Jays started interviewing finalists for the head trainer role vacated when Nikki Huffman recently left the club, with Charlie Montoyo and Ross Atkins meeting with some candidates during the GM Meetings. “That’s a huge job, to tell you the truth,” says Montoyo. “The guys that are interviewing are going through a deep process, from me, Ross and Angus (Mugford, head of the high performance department).

 

It’s been fun. Whomever we get is going to be good because that’s a big job.” Huffman didn’t have previous experience as a head trainer when she was promoted to replace George Poulis, but Montoyo says “most of the guys right now that we’re interviewing, they all have experience so it’s not going to be someone with no experience.”

[Terminator]

Good to hear that they've identified 2 starting pitchers, and not just 1, as definite needs.

 

Would be interested to hear some more concrete answers on what else they think they need. I think every team tinkers with RP every year and that has kind of come up some but I'd be interested in hearing their thoughts on CF and 1B in particular. The bench too.

[jaysblue]

Rockies have no money and want a catcher. And Morosi said Jon Gray is floating around.

 

He's only got 2 years left though.

 

Grandal would rake in Colorado and significantly improve the pitching staff with his framing, though the Rockies aren't spending any big money like you said. What an awful organization considering they have Arenado, Story, Dahl and Blackmon to build around.

 

If the Jays signed Grandal, moving Jansen for Gray would be awesome. Rockies need a good framing catcher and Jansen does offer some offensive potential and would be cheap.

 

Gray has ace potential if he puts it all together. A change of scenery is what he needs.

[Spanky99]

Grandal would rake in Colorado and significantly improve the pitching staff with his framing, though the Rockies aren't spending any big money like you said. What an awful organization considering they have Arenado, Story, Dahl and Blackmon to build around.

 

If the Jays signed Grandal, moving Jansen for Gray would be awesome. Rockies need a good framing catcher and Jansen does offer some offensive potential and would be cheap.

 

Gray has ace potential if he puts it all together. A change of scenery is what he needs.

 

I thought Jon Gray and Stroman were good trade partners a year ago. Damn... JG would be nice for another year. Yet Kay and SWR might be legit concerning ceilings. Not to mention likely a far better return. The latter that is.

[saskjayfan]

The MLb off season is almost unbearable. In the NBA a minute into free agency and 600 million is already spent by clubs. A week into the NHL free agency and anyone worth signing is already signed.

 

In baseball a month into free agency you're lucky if 2 of the top 40 free agents have signed with clubs.

[glory]

The MLb off season is almost unbearable. In the NBA a minute into free agency and 600 million is already spent by clubs. A week into the NHL free agency and anyone worth signing is already signed.

 

In baseball a month into free agency you're lucky if 2 of the top 40 free agents have signed with clubs.

 

Agreed, this is terrible for the game. It's been 3 weeks into the off season and two relievers have signed (both with the Braves). That's it. Nothing else appears to be imminent (no rumors or anything). Plus most of the top FA's are connected to Boras, so lord knows when the first domino drops. It could be months from now.

[Key22]

Am I being too negative? When I look at the roster it really seems pretty abysmal - there are so many holes that it seems onerous to expect free agency to fix it.

 

Basically - we have a young core but you can't get too hyped by it. Guerrero didn't really come out showing that he is the greatest MILB hitter of a generation. Bichette, let's face it, came out red hot but he's no lock or even likely to be that player. There was an article noting that Bret Lawrie had higher upside and look what happened there.

 

Biggio and Jansen didn't hit - neither of them scream future all-star.

 

 

And those are the four of the five guys being counted on as the "Core"

 

Gurriel is the other and if his bat holds he is probably the best "currently" of the core group.

 

CF and RF are poor - no one at first/dh and I am not sold on second.

 

We have no true #1, #2, or even #3 starter. Outside of Giles (who we may trade) the bullpen has no shut down pitcher. Not a single truly reliable reliever.

 

And people want to try and make the playoffs? This team looks to have so SO many holes.