Charlie Montoyo Egregious Mistake Tracking Thread

[Todd Van Anus]

Plus he's built like a brick shithouse. When Mae interviewed him after the game she looked she could fit inside him 3 times

 

And Hazel isn't exactly a petite woman.

[BigCecil]

I can't f***ing stand Montoyo already and I liked Grichuk a hell of a lot more when we didn't have him for 5/50.

[Terminator]

Plus he's built like a brick shithouse. When Mae interviewed him after the game she looked she could fit inside him 3 times

 

He's fat. His build is a negative not a positive.

[Olerud363]

Projection = educated guess

 

It does not equal actuals.

 

Actuals = Actuals

 

If projections were 100% Vegas would be bankrupt.

 

Projection is not educated guess it is

 

Projection = Past + a + b

 

Past is what this player and every other player has ever done

a is factor such as age, circumstances (in baseball stadium effect etc.)

b is an error term

 

If b was 0 then all projections would come true. b will never be zero

 

the more projections you make the closer to zero b is. Even over 25 players b isn't zero. However over 25 players, over 5 years b gets small.

 

Problem is even with good projections you are bidding with 25 other teams with good projections for the players, so you might not get the players you want according to your projections.

[Olerud363]

Hey mans - the players just suck. That's it!

 

Then why does Shapiro bother with all the high performance and analytics s***?? I'm not saying a different manager would come in on Tuesday, give some hitting tips, and the guys would start winning 12-3, however is the money being put into the high performance stuff just wasted??

 

So what if the players suck. There are different levels of suckiness. A .300 on base percentage is sucky. A .250 is more sucky.

 

What is modern analyitics?? Isn't it using every advantage to help the players succeed, shifts, pitch patterns, swing mechanics, high performance work out routines. Does any of it have an effect??

 

If there are three outcomes for Teoscar Hernandez, Brandon Drury types... all relatively sucky

 

1. .190 .250 .290

2. .220 .280 .320

3. .240 .290 .400

 

Can a good coaching staff get the sucky players to the high end of their suckiness?? And the good player to the high end of their goodness??

 

If not why does it matter who the manager is?? Why fire Gibby?? What did Shapiro think he would gain?? Did Shapiro realize that the manager (and coaching staff he chose) would have no effect on player perfromance, but think Charlie would squeak out 7 more runs each way with strategy??

[Brownie19]

I think he thought Gibby didn't want to sit through this rebuild, all the other good managers were taken and Charlie seemed like a nice guy.

[glory]

I can't f***ing stand Montoyo already and I liked Grichuk a hell of a lot more when we didn't have him for 5/50.

 

The Grichuk extension was questionable at the time, and even if he ends up with his usual summer hot streak to get a 2 ish WAR, that's still not worth $50 mil.

 

I'm going to dread seeing Stroman and Giles go, while having to sit and watch Grichuk for the next five years.

[Ray]

I'm going to dread seeing Stroman and Giles go, while having to sit and watch Grichuk for the next five years.

 

Then don't.

 

I'm not entirely sure why any one would actively do something that fills them with dread.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Ray

[Bobthe4th]

Then don't.

 

I'm not entirely sure why any one would actively try to do something that fills themselves with dread.

 

If you support a team, you can’t just make yourself stop caring / following them. It’s like a religion and a way of life.

[Ray]

If you support a team, you can’t just make yourself stop caring / following them. It’s like a religion and a way of life.

 

If your religion or your way of life actually makes you feel a sense of 'dread' like he said, it may be time to change said religion or way of life.

[Bobthe4th]

If your religion or your way of life actually makes you feel a sense of 'dread' like he said, it may be time to change said religion or way of life.

 

That’s exactly my point, your emotions won’t let you. Besides it’ll make the multiple future World Series all the sweeter after having lived through these few bad years!

[Bobthe4th]

When Vlad hits the walk off homerun in game 7 of the 2024 World Series we can all reminisce about the year we had to watch the likes of Socrates Brito.

[glory]

Then don't.

 

I'm not entirely sure why any one would actively do something that fills them with dread.

 

So instead of acknowledging what I feel are bad moves, it's best to wear blinders and pretend everything is great? Only the latter makes someone a fan?

 

That's warped thinking, and you are being way too literal if you took "dread" as a serious statement.

[BigCecil]

The Grichuk extension was questionable at the time, and even if he ends up with his usual summer hot streak to get a 2 ish WAR, that's still not worth $50 mil.

 

I'm going to dread seeing Stroman and Giles go, while having to sit and watch Grichuk for the next five years.

 

I get that that he > than Pillar in the coming years, and I get the $/WAR argument for that deal. But the 30% K rate and so many complete write off ABs just irk me. Is he really a guy we needed to build around for 5 years? I guess.

 

This is completely anecdotal on my part but he just looks like he doesn't really give a s*** after a bad PA. I'm sure he does...but man. Last season I felt like he was found money and thats not the case anymore.

[glory]

I get that that he > than Pillar in the coming years, and I get the $/WAR argument for that deal. But the 30% K rate and so many complete write off ABs just irk me. Is he really a guy we needed to build around for 5 years? I guess.

 

This is completely anecdotal on my part but he just looks like he doesn't really give a s*** after a bad PA. I'm sure he does...but man. Last season I felt like he was found money and thats not the case anymore.

 

I said at the time, I don't trust a guy with his BB/K rate long term, especially since we have years of data to show that he kinda is what he is. A streaky hitter with power and a ~2 WAR type. You don't give $50 mil to those types in a market where 2 win players are signing minor league deals. Who knows maybe he proves me wrong, I hope he does, but I don't think it was a smart move. Surplus potential is limited unless his bat takes off.

[KevinGregg]

I said at the time, I don't trust a guy with his BB/K rate long term, especially since we have years of data to show that he kinda is what he is. A streaky hitter with power and a ~2 WAR type. You don't give $50 mil to those types in a market where 2 win players are signing minor league deals. Who knows maybe he proves me wrong, I hope he does, but I don't think it was a smart move. Surplus potential is limited unless his bat takes off.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The deal only makes sense if hes playing CF or elite RF defense. He's not your prototypical all bat power hitting outfielder so he's going to have to create value with his defense and baserunning. If he can do that AND the bat takes off that's like a 5-7 win player. That's why Shatkins rolled the dice on that extension. If it doesn't work out no big deal, we have no other commitments and after a couple years a team would probably take on most of the remaining contract since it's not too expensive.

[wilko]

They signed Grichuk because he was drafted before Trout. Grichuk > Trout.

[Ray]

So instead of acknowledging what I feel are bad moves, it's best to wear blinders and pretend everything is great? Only the latter makes someone a fan?

 

That's warped thinking, and you are being way too literal if you took "dread" as a serious statement.

 

Obviously not, but to criticize their moves without looking at them contextually is just as bad. You can't say the front office only added Teoscar, McKinney, Drury to this roster while also ignoring that they were acquired for assets with very limited value.

 

And you wouldn't exactly be the first person on here to be filled with literal dread watching a sport. It seems quite common among some posters here.

[FrozenRopes]

If your religion or your way of life actually makes you feel a sense of 'dread' like he said, it may be time to change said religion or way of life.

 

If a sports team you watch makes you feel a sense of dread, you are probably a moron.

[BlueRocky]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The deal only makes sense if hes playing CF or elite RF defense. He's not your prototypical all bat power hitting outfielder so he's going to have to create value with his defense and baserunning. If he can do that AND the bat takes off that's like a 5-7 win player. That's why Shatkins rolled the dice on that extension. If it doesn't work out no big deal, we have no other commitments and after a couple years a team would probably take on most of the remaining contract since it's not too expensive.

 

I think people just need to be a bit more open-minded.

If we crap on guys before they get an extended chance, we would've never have found and nurtured gems like Halladay, Bautista, Edwin, etc.

The extension might've been premature, but it's really not outside the realm of possibility this contract becomes surplus value 2 years down the road.

 

Atkins wasn't going to spend any serious money this year anyhow, we're nowhere near our payroll ceiling and this won't hurt the team's financial ability to sign players next year.

We literally have 40 million dollars of dead money coming off the books. Our real roster payroll is around $60 million, we spent $160 million two years ago.

That far outweighs paying a slight positive WAR guy in a position we have no prospects.

[keggy]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The deal only makes sense if hes playing CF or elite RF defense. He's not your prototypical all bat power hitting outfielder so he's going to have to create value with his defense and baserunning. If he can do that AND the bat takes off that's like a 5-7 win player. That's why Shatkins rolled the dice on that extension. If it doesn't work out no big deal, we have no other commitments and after a couple years a team would probably take on most of the remaining contract since it's not too expensive.

 

If Grichuk turns into a 7 win player Atkins deserves to win executive of the year. That's like a 99%ile projected outcome for him.

[glory]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The deal only makes sense if hes playing CF or elite RF defense. He's not your prototypical all bat power hitting outfielder so he's going to have to create value with his defense and baserunning. If he can do that AND the bat takes off that's like a 5-7 win player. That's why Shatkins rolled the dice on that extension. If it doesn't work out no big deal, we have no other commitments and after a couple years a team would probably take on most of the remaining contract since it's not too expensive.

 

I'd be thrilled if he turns into a 3 WAR player. 5-7 is very unrealistic, even in a best case scenario.

 

They guessed right with Smoak, so I'll trust their judgment, but players with BB%'s that low (and K%'s that high) are usually not consistently good, unless he turns into Javy Baez.

[5ToolPhenom]

I can't f***ing stand Montoyo already and I liked Grichuk a hell of a lot more when we didn't have him for 5/50.

 

The Grichuk lock up was a little puzzling. I guess you need someone to take the field, but he's certainly not someone I'm going to enjoy watching for the next 5 years. Sure, he'll run into a few mistakes and go on some streaks, but I don't see a lot of upside with him.

[gruber92]

I think people just need to be a bit more open-minded.

If we crap on guys before they get an extended chance, we would've never have found and nurtured gems like Halladay, Bautista, Edwin, etc.

The extension might've been premature, but it's really not outside the realm of possibility this contract becomes surplus value 2 years down the road.

 

Atkins wasn't going to spend any serious money this year anyhow, we're nowhere near our payroll ceiling and this won't hurt the team's financial ability to sign players next year.

We literally have 40 million dollars of dead money coming off the books. Our real roster payroll is around $60 million, we spent $160 million two years ago.

That far outweighs paying a slight positive WAR guy in a position we have no prospects.

 

Just because we have money coming off the books next year doesn't mean you take a $57M flier on a sub .300 OBP type with horrible K/BB rates with average defense over a five year term. I'm sure he could have found someone with more value on the open market easily. There was no rush in signing him to an extension whatsoever. This is just like the Morales signing, except it's worse as it spans out over five years. Rogers will be thrilled when Grichuk is traded in a few years and they swallow half the contract.

[saskjayfan]

When Vlad hits the walk off homerun in game 7 of the 2024 World Series we can all reminisce about the year we had to watch the likes of Socrates Brito.

 

The only person i'm certain will be on the Jays in 2024 is Vlad. It's a bit of stretch to think we'll win the world series. Scratch that, we might be trading Vlad mid way through 2024 to start the rebuild for 2028.

[keggy]

Just because we have money coming off the books next year doesn't mean you take a $57M flier on a sub .300 OBP type with horrible K/BB rates with average defense over a five year term. I'm sure he could have found someone with more value on the open market easily. There was no rush in signing him to an extension whatsoever. This is just like the Morales signing, except it's worse as it spans out over five years. Rogers will be thrilled when Grichuk is traded in a few years and they swallow half the contract.

 

On the positive side, Grichuk has a much higher floor than Morales who was basically un-rosterable due to his negative defensive and baserunning value. If Grichuk can handle center field over time, basically he will never be worse than a 4th outfielder. This is more of a curious low-risk low-reward lateral move similar to signing Maicer Izturis.

[Terminator]

Montoyo should be using openers when Jackson starts. No idea why he doesn't do that.

[Brownie19]

Montoyo should be using openers when Jackson starts. No idea why he doesn't do that.

 

Yeah I'm super disappointed he hasn't brought the creative mentality the TB organization is known for.

[BlueRocky]

Montoyo should be using openers when Jackson starts. No idea why he doesn't do that.

 

It's basically a bullpen day every time he starts, might as well.

[tbad]

42 games in, Montoyo responsible for this many loses: 0

 

But people need someone to blame so this thread has 27 pages.