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General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

Bobthe4th

By Bobthe4th
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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gruber92 Buffalo Bisons

gruber92

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Grichuk and his .284 OBP batting third tonight with Smoak batting seventh. Man, is it ever obvious that Atkins is squeezing the lemon hard when it comes to Grichuk. What a buffoon.
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Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Grichuk and his .284 OBP batting third tonight with Smoak batting seventh. Man, is it ever obvious that Atkins is squeezing the lemon hard when it comes to Grichuk. What a buffoon.

 

Meh, against Tampa you have to keep things fairly balanced in terms of lefties/righties or they'll bullpen you to death. I think Fisher should be 7th pushing the others down, but other than that I really don't have an issue with it. Smoak is a heavy pull hitter who hits into the shift a lot, Tampa shifts a lot, and Pruitt is a ground ball machine. Not the best matchup in the world for Smoak.

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Why does Grichuk run with his torso straight up? f***, he just cost himself a base hit.

 

Vladdy's nuts.

 

Grichuk and his 0.3 WAR and 84 wRC+ is looking like a complete boat anchor.

 

Lots of fans hoping on a big 2nd half splurge never really got it. I hate watching his ABs.

 

Not the worst deal with that term/AAV, but it makes you wonder "why extend him?" when they pass on others.

AintNoThang College Ball

AintNoThang

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Grichuk and his 0.3 WAR and 84 wRC+ is looking like a complete boat anchor.

 

Lots of fans hoping on a big 2nd half splurge never really got it. I hate watching his ABs.

 

Not the worst deal with that term/AAV, but it makes you wonder "why extend him?" when they pass on others.

 

Harold Ramirez has higher fWAR than Grichuk in far fewer ABs.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Grichuk and his 0.3 WAR and 84 wRC+ is looking like a complete boat anchor.

 

Lots of fans hoping on a big 2nd half splurge never really got it. I hate watching his ABs.

 

Not the worst deal with that term/AAV, but it makes you wonder "why extend him?" when they pass on others.

 

Weird year for Grichuk. The poor BB and K rates are steady with his career, and AVG and OBP are basically steady with his career. His contact and swinging strike rates are actually career bests but his ISO is down by a grade. Roll in some unexpected negative runs from baserunning and defense and he's gone from 2 WAR to almost 0.

 

I'm not sure what to make of any of it but I would expect him to at least regress to the career means next year.

 

Boring f***ing player either way. I'm not sure if I like Teoscar or him more at this point.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Harold Ramirez has higher fWAR than Grichuk in far fewer ABs.

 

Ah yes, the one that got away... *checks list of every player Atkins has parted with*... Harold Ramirez.

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Grichuk and his 0.3 WAR and 84 wRC+ is looking like a complete boat anchor.

 

Lots of fans hoping on a big 2nd half splurge never really got it. I hate watching his ABs.

 

Not the worst deal with that term/AAV, but it makes you wonder "why extend him?" when they pass on others.

 

Well - he was coming off seasons of 3.0, 2.2, 1.5 and 2.1 WAR and entering his prime (ages 28-30). I suspect there were positive signs of a potential breakout (3-4 WAR player) and they wanted to lock him up before that happened - recognizing if the breakout doesn't happen, then he should remain a 2 WAR player, which isn't so awful for $11M per.

 

If I were to guess, the probabilities were likely:

 

Breakout - 20%

Maintain Current - 70%

Pumpkin - 10%

 

In 2019 - we got the f***ing pumpkin guys. Does that make this move a bad decision? I'd argue it doesn't - it's just bad results. His GB% is up a bit this year and for some reason the power is gone (otherwise, most of the #'s all look the same). I'd suspect there's a pretty high chance he can make adjustments and return to the 2 WAR level next year - albeit his breakout chances have diminished.

 

If I were to guess, the probabilities for Sogard this year were likely:

 

2.2 WAR player, Jays best positional player, traded for a couple lottery tickets - 5%

Below average bench player - 20%

Cut in Spring Training - 75%

 

I mean Sogard came with absolutely no risk, but I'm not going to praise Shatkins for turning him into 2 lottery picks. They got lucky.

Edited by Brownie19
BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Well - he was coming off seasons of 3.0, 2.2, 1.5 and 2.1 WAR and entering his prime (ages 28-30). I suspect there were positive signs of a potential breakout (3-4 WAR player) and they wanted to lock him up before that happened - recognizing if the breakout doesn't happen, then he should remain a 2 WAR player, which isn't so awful for $11M per.

 

If I were to guess, the probabilities were likely:

 

Breakout - 20%

Maintain Current - 70%

Pumpkin - 10%

 

In 2019 - we got the f***ing pumpkin guys. Does that make this move a bad decision? I'd argue it doesn't - it's just bad results. His GB% is up a bit this year and for some reason the power is gone (otherwise, most of the #'s all look the same). I'd suspect there's a pretty high chance he can make adjustments and return to the 2 WAR level next year - albeit his breakout chances have diminished.

 

If I were to guess, the probabilities for Sogard this year were likely:

 

2.2 WAR player, Jays best positional player, traded for a couple lottery tickets - 5%

Below average bench player - 20%

Cut in Spring Training - 75%

 

I mean Sogard came with absolutely no risk, but I'm not going to praise Shatkins for turning him into 2 lottery picks. They got lucky.

 

That's good analysis, thankfully they didn't extend Sogard lol

 

We got the pumpkin in 19 alright and worse than he projected. We will see what '20 holds.

 

Bottom line for me is why give a 2 WAR player 5/52 when, according to your numbers, he has an 80% probability of maintaining 2 war or being a pumpkin. 2 WAR is not something to lock up in a rebuild. Is it? now we have Fisher (who is a phenom 5 tool with great "handedness") and Teoscar all in that same category.....and I forgot McKinney who they already had.

 

Maybe its nit picking. Just doesn't seem smart to me.

glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Grichuk's barrel % went from 16.0 and 14.4 in 2017-18 to 7.4 this season. He is hitting way more GB's and not making contact as hard as he used to (39.0% this year versus 43.1% last year).

 

I remember reading he made some sort of adjustment to his swing/approach this season. Not sure whether it was to become more selective or make more consistent contact, but it obviously hurt him badly. The barrel% drop is pretty staggering. His xOBA in 2018 was .340 and xSLG was .485. This year is it down to .303 and .391 respectively. Just a bad season anyway you slice it.

 

My guess is Grichuk will bounce back next season, but I think the reasonable expectation for a bounce back should be a ~100-110 wRC+ and a WAR around 1.5-2.5. Although if his D and baserunning are going to be both be negatives moving forward then we may have to move the goal posts for his WAR expectations.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
A. Possible but unlikely

B. 5 years/ $35 Million a year maybe

 

Patrick Corbin and Yu Darvish got 6 year deals.

 

Cole might realistically be able to get 8 years.

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
That's good analysis, thankfully they didn't extend Sogard lol

 

We got the pumpkin in 19 alright and worse than he projected. We will see what '20 holds.

 

Bottom line for me is why give a 2 WAR player 5/52 when, according to your numbers, he has an 80% probability of maintaining 2 war or being a pumpkin. 2 WAR is not something to lock up in a rebuild. Is it? now we have Fisher (who is a phenom 5 tool with great "handedness") and Teoscar all in that same category.....and I forgot McKinney who they already had.

 

Maybe its nit picking. Just doesn't seem smart to me.

 

I have to think it was all about locking him up before he was worth a lot more. Maybe that breakout % was higher in their minds (30%?). No idea. Twins locked up Max Kepler before this year's breakout and I bet everything thinks they are brilliant for it. The probabilities for Kepler were probably very similar to those of Grichuk. That doesn't make Minnesota's FO brilliant and Toronto's stupid.

THANOS FCL Blue Jays

THANOS

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Patrick Corbin and Yu Darvish got 6 year deals.

 

Cole might realistically be able to get 8 years.

 

Would you do 8/280?

 

We have him until his age 36 season. The gamble is if he ages like Scherzer or falls off a cliff.

Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
Patrick Corbin and Yu Darvish got 6 year deals.

 

Cole might realistically be able to get 8 years.

 

I think he could. Just depends on the value per year really imo

 

8/$240 Million is probably a good bet on what will be thrown around I think

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