General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Brownie19]

His profile doesn't exactly scream bullpen either.

 

Him and Dakota Hudson have nearly identical peripherals in the minors when it comes to GB%, SwStr%, and K% and both are sinker guys. Hudson, for all his faults, has been able to produce decent enough results despite fairly ugly underlying numbers.

 

He's definitely going to be an enigma around these parts.

 

Good comparison. It's bizarre to see that Hudson suppressed home runs as much (if not better) than Zeuch did in the minors....yet in the majors, his HR/9 rate is at 1.22!

[Barkerfan23]

It’ll be interesting to see Zeuch “start” behind the opener today. He’s got as good a chance as any of being the 5th starter next season.

 

Dude is going to get f***ing shelled.

[Daniel Labude]

Dude is going to get f***ing shelled.

 

Gonna look like an allstar hopefully lol

[Daniel Labude]

Dude is going to get f***ing shelled.

 

Gonna look like an allstar hopefully lol

[Abomination]

Good comparison. It's bizarre to see that Hudson suppressed home runs as much (if not better) than Zeuch did in the minors....yet in the majors, his HR/9 rate is at 1.22!

 

Well, the MLB average HR/9 rate this year is 1.44, so ... he's a sinkerballer who continues to suppress home runs?

[Brownie19]

Well, the MLB average HR/9 rate this year is 1.44, so ... he's a sinkerballer who continues to suppress home runs?

 

f*** Abom - damn you and your facts!

 

He's the #1 GB% pitcher in baseball (qualified). Of the top 16 GB% starters, his HR/9 is the highest. He went from giving up 0.08 HR/9 in 111 AAA innings to 1.22 in the majors. That seemed like a large jump to me (recognizing 0.08 in AAA came with a lot of luck). Now that you've called me out for being dumn, I've looked into this a bit more and even those who suppress HR's a ton in the minors seemingly give up their fair share of HRs in the majors. Point taken.

[Slade]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm excited to see what kind of stuff Zeuch has. For the most part his minor league career has been pretty good yet his strikeout rates have dropped lower and lower every year. We are talking about a guy who was able to throw a complete game no hitter with a K rate of 4.5/9.

[Abomination]

f*** Abom - damn you and your facts!

 

He's the #1 GB% pitcher in baseball (qualified). Of the top 16 GB% starters, his HR/9 is the highest. He went from giving up 0.08 HR/9 in 111 AAA innings to 1.22 in the majors. That seemed like a large jump to me (recognizing 0.08 in AAA came with a lot of luck). Now that you've called me out for being dumn, I've looked into this a bit more and even those who suppress HR's a ton in the minors seemingly give up their fair share of HRs in the majors. Point taken.

 

The problem with the sinkerball is everyone is looking down in the zone. That's probably less the case in the minors, where pitchers have much less control. Typically, guys with great sinkers seem to throw them a lot, rather than changing speeds. I think that's why it has less effectiveness in the majors right now. That's also why you see teams all wanting their starters to start throwing 4-seam fastballs up. Batters with uppercuts can't do anything with them, and the last decade of the sinker being in vogue has produced a lot of batters like that.

[Brownie19]

The problem with the sinkerball is everyone is looking down in the zone. That's probably less the case in the minors, where pitchers have much less control. Typically, guys with great sinkers seem to throw them a lot, rather than changing speeds. I think that's why it has less effectiveness in the majors right now. That's also why you see teams all wanting their starters to start throwing 4-seam fastballs up. Batters with uppercuts can't do anything with them, and the last decade of the sinker being in vogue has produced a lot of batters like that.

 

How long until that trend changes? I mean everyone and their brother knows pitchers are attacking he top of the zone now to counter the upper cut swing these days. Surely to god most are already working to flatten their swings some to hit the high fastball better? Isn't there a possibility that so soon as next year, hitters won't be 'looking down in the zone'?

[Abomination]

How long until that trend changes? I mean everyone and their brother knows pitchers are attacking he top of the zone now to counter the upper cut swing these days. Surely to god most are already working to flatten their swings some to hit the high fastball better? Isn't there a possibility that so soon as next year, hitters won't be 'looking down in the zone'?

 

I doubt it'll happen that fast. I'd say 5 years, give or take, for balance.

[Grant77]

Dude is going to get f***ing shelled.

 

Looked pretty solid to me.

[Abomination]

Heh, I was just watching a YouTube clip with Jonathan Frakes at a convention in Toronto a few days ago (I was curious about the new Picard series), and he mentioned Vladdy and Bichette!

 

Frakes is awesome, btw!

[Bobthe4th]

Heh, I was just watching a YouTube clip with Jonathan Frakes at a convention in Toronto a few days ago (I was curious about the new Picard series), and he mentioned Vladdy and Bichette!

 

Frakes is awesome, btw!

 

[jaysguy44]

Dude is going to get f***ing shelled.

 

Another post where Barker ends up wrong, shocker.

[Brownie19]

I doubt it'll happen that fast. I'd say 5 years, give or take, for balance.

 

Any other thoughts? For me - this is a fascinating debate. I mean if you're a hitter - aren't you spending the offseason working on your ability to handle and crush the high fastball? My casual observation is that almost every single team in baseball has made the switch and is using it as a tool to get people out right now. Why on earth would you wait 5 years?

 

I guess the flip side is, as a hitter - would you rather pitchers attack you with the high fastball? Can they do more damage when pitchers are working (and missing) up in the zone v. when pitchers are attacking the bottom of the zone? I suspect there's enough data now that hitters, in general, should be able to say - if we had a choice, we'd rather pitchers come after us upstairs (or downstairs)

[saskjayfan]

Well, the MLB average HR/9 rate this year is 1.44, so ... he's a sinkerballer who continues to suppress home runs?

 

The average HR/9 is 1.44? Wow, that seems crazy high. Thanks for posting that. I know the ball has been flying, but that stat just caught me off guard a bit. I didn't realize it was that high.

[Todd Van Anus]

Zeuch looked good last night. He might be able to fill a mid-rotation spot, long-term.

[Krylian]

Zeuch looked good last night. He might be able to fill a mid-rotation spot, long-term.

 

If he's a mid-rotation starter for the Jays long term...god help us.

[Todd Van Anus]

If he's a mid-rotation starter for the Jays long term...god help us.

 

I take it you weren't impressed. Why?

[Krylian]

I take it you weren't impressed. Why?

 

He doesn't have swing and miss stuff. That's a problem over the course of a season. He also hasn't had swing and miss stuff in the minors so it's not like this is a new development. He has an exceptional GB rate, but that alone isn't going to get it done. I'm expecting that as the sample size grows we'll see how the league adjusts to him.

[Todd Van Anus]

He doesn't have swing and miss stuff. That's a problem over the course of a season. He also hasn't had swing and miss stuff in the minors so it's not like this is a new development. He has an exceptional GB rate, but that alone isn't going to get it done. I'm expecting that as the sample size grows we'll see how the league adjusts to him.

 

Pitching to contact is not the worst thing. Although in the AL East it may not be ideal. We shall see...

[Krylian]

Pitching to contact is not the worst thing. Although in the AL East it may not be ideal. We shall see...

 

It's not a good thing. The game is evolving and pitching to contact is not what teams are looking for. Especially teams without elite defense,

[Abomination]

Any other thoughts? For me - this is a fascinating debate. I mean if you're a hitter - aren't you spending the offseason working on your ability to handle and crush the high fastball? My casual observation is that almost every single team in baseball has made the switch and is using it as a tool to get people out right now. Why on earth would you wait 5 years?

 

Retooling a swing is much more difficult (for most batters at least) than for a pitcher to change the grip on a pitch, or a location they're throwing to. Many who are having success now will be unwilling to change until they're forced to. That will take time and failure.

 

I could be wrong of course, and certainly if all teams move to that approach we could see the process happen more quickly as a result, but I would think that's pretty close to being accurate.

 

A big wildcard in all this could be the ball. MLB is going to have a hell of a time explaining the AAA numbers. If they go back to a *proper* ball, hitters may have to adjust much quicker.

[Brownie19]

Retooling a swing is much more difficult (for most batters at least) than for a pitcher to change the grip on a pitch, or a location they're throwing to. Many who are having success now will be unwilling to change until they're forced to. That will take time and failure.

 

I could be wrong of course, and certainly if all teams move to that approach we could see the process happen more quickly as a result, but I would think that's pretty close to being accurate.

 

A big wildcard in all this could be the ball. MLB is going to have a hell of a time explaining the AAA numbers. If they go back to a *proper* ball, hitters may have to adjust much quicker.

 

All interesting stuff. I just assume with our modern day technology hitters have so much more data on how pitchers are attacking them. They know where their weak spots are and either work on the adjustments to improve there (or they work on laying off pitches they can't hit).

 

Changing your swing path isn't nearly as hard as it was 10-20 years ago. While I agree it's easier for a pitcher to change grips/location, I don't think it's as hard for hitters to adjust anymore. Didn't Teo go down to AAA and work on hitting the high fastball over a month or so before returning with significant improvement?

 

How much failure will it take for someone to try and make adjustments? I'd suggest Rys Hoskins is going to try and make those adjustments this offseason despite a 124 wRC+.

[Olerud363]

A big wildcard in all this could be the ball. MLB is going to have a hell of a time explaining the AAA numbers. If they go back to a *proper* ball, hitters may have to adjust much quicker.

 

Who do you rate as the greatest homerun hitting team of all time

 

a) the Maris Mantle Yankees of the early 60s

the Griffey/A-Rod Mariners of the mid to late 90s

c) the Kepler/40 year old Cruz Twins of today??

 

The Kepler/Cruz twins might hit 40 more homeruns than any of them... can't be anything to do with the ball...

 

Fix the godamn ball, if for nothing else then Vladimir's .300 25 100 seasons, will be worthless with the crazy ball, but will be pretty good relatively with a normal ball **

 

 

** (I have a theory that Vladimir isn't built for the crazy ball with his hard groundballish swing, and would do better relatively with a normal ball, this is based on the fact he is getting outhomered 40-15 by less heralded rookies and young players).

[Olerud363]

All interesting stuff. I just assume with our modern day technology hitters have so much more data on how pitchers are attacking them. They know where their weak spots are and either work on the adjustments to improve there (or they work on laying off pitches they can't hit).

 

Changing your swing path isn't nearly as hard as it was 10-20 years ago. While I agree it's easier for a pitcher to change grips/location, I don't think it's as hard for hitters to adjust anymore. Didn't Teo go down to AAA and work on hitting the high fastball over a month or so before returning with significant improvement?

 

How much failure will it take for someone to try and make adjustments? I'd suggest Rys Hoskins is going to try and make those adjustments this offseason despite a 124 wRC+.

 

What do you think Vladimir needs to do to fix his ground ball rate and improve his hard hit rate and go from half decent to crazy with the rest of them?? (Based on his pedigree, batting practice and maximum exit velocity of 120ish, you gotta think if he improves the ground ball rate he can join the rest of them with the crazy numbers).

[BTS]

Zeuch is basically a non-prospect at this point guys. He's a right-handed Ty Blach.

[Ex Player]

SWR is doing well at higher A so far: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=woods-000sim

[Krylian]

SWR is doing well at higher A so far: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=woods-000sim

 

You must not be familiar with the Prospects thread. There's a scheduled circle jerk after each one of his starts.

[gruber92]

If Zeuch adds and uses a four seam fastball up in the zone and locates it consistently, he may stick as a #4-5. He throws hard enough for a high fastball to be effective when you mix it in with his two seamer and slider. He has no change up from what I've seen, but his slider looks promising as a pitch that can upset a batter's timing. He's the type where we'll just have to wait and see.