General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Bobthe4th]

 

Gio Urshela also has 40 hits in that time. The Yankees will be crazy good if they are ever fully fit.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think teams tend to game pitcher service time. No f***ing point with how unpredictable arms can be.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Agreed. When a pitcher is ready for MLB, promote.

 

How many pitchers get through 6 years of service time without a significant arm injury and / or loss of effectiveness? I'm guessing a relatively small percentage.

[z3r0s]

Agreed. When a pitcher is ready for MLB, promote.

 

How many pitchers get through 6 years of service time without a significant arm injury and / or loss of effectiveness? I'm guessing a relatively small percentage.

 

to be fair, injury doesn't reduce service time accumulation. I still agree tho, use those bullets when they're healthy.

[glory]

Pearson will not be called up in Sept, and will definitely get the Vlad treatment. Since we are talking about a few weeks, I don't think it's a big deal. Vlad was big league ready with the bat in mid 2018, that's why there was a big hoopla about it. With Pearson, he's on an innings restriction and only has 2 AAA starts. No rush, and no point, putting him on the 40 man now.

[Spanky99]

Pearson will not be called up in Sept, and will definitely get the Vlad treatment. Since we are talking about a few weeks, I don't think it's a big deal. Vlad was big league ready with the bat in mid 2018, that's why there was a big hoopla about it. With Pearson, he's on an innings restriction and only has 2 AAA starts. No rush, and no point, putting him on the 40 man now.

 

They're talking about next season's Super 2.

[Spanky99]

I don't think teams tend to game pitcher service time. No f***ing point with how unpredictable arms can be.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

I could see them letting him pitch in Buffalo until the Super 2 deadline, depends on what the FO does in the winter, plus injuries next year could force him up, either way I wouldn't worry about it. I believe you're right, though.

[Bobthe4th]

Pearson will not be called up in Sept, and will definitely get the Vlad treatment. Since we are talking about a few weeks, I don't think it's a big deal. Vlad was big league ready with the bat in mid 2018, that's why there was a big hoopla about it. With Pearson, he's on an innings restriction and only has 2 AAA starts. No rush, and no point, putting him on the 40 man now.

 

Yeah and he’s only pitched barely 20 innings in total with us before this season.

[glory]

I don't think they'll care about the super 2 as much as the extra year of control. If he's dominating AAA in April, then no need to wait. Call him up after you get 2026 under control.

[BTS]

Has there ever been a case of a team clearly gaming service time clocks for a pitcher?

[Brownie19]

I don't think they'll care about the super 2 as much as the extra year of control. If he's dominating AAA in April, then no need to wait. Call him up after you get 2026 under control.

 

Agree with this. I can't imagine they will worry about Super 2.

[wk680]

It's the best statistical analysis on any one player at this time, far better than anything Bill James has come up with. James is dead wrong in this hypothesis, what has he come up with to refute this stat? Nothing is absolute obviously, but it's the best we have today. That claim was nonsense, imo.

 

Last week, MLB Network's resident sabermetric/WAR fan-boy Brian Kenney described on his show how, so far this season, Bryce Harper is way down the list in WAR (I believe 80+ in MLB) but is like 5th in his cumulative wPA (win probability added). They discussed the fact that maybe 'clutch' really exists and Harper personifies it (at least in 2019). The problem with WAR is that (like overall run differential and its use in the Pythagorean win - loss prediction) some of those stats can be accumulated in 'garbage time' and skew the apparent value of the player.

 

Again, I don't discount WAR, but I prefer also to look beyond that one headline number.

[Spanky99]

Last week, MLB Network's resident sabermetric/WAR fan-boy Brian Kenney described on his show how, so far this season, Bryce Harper is way down the list in WAR (I believe 80+ in MLB) but is like 5th in his cumulative wPA (win probability added). They discussed the fact that maybe 'clutch' really exists and Harper personifies it (at least in 2019). The problem with WAR is that (like overall run differential and its use in the Pythagorean win - loss prediction) some of those stats can be accumulated in 'garbage time' and skew the apparent value of the player.

 

Again, I don't discount WAR, but I prefer also to look beyond that one headline number.

 

Hah... I watched that too. By all means, anyone can delve deeper into stats such as WPA/RA9/SIERA etc, to get a better read on players. Again, WAR is the best cumulative stat we have as to measure a player. James said the stat was dead wrong, nah, he's dead wrong.

[wk680]

Hah... I watched that too. By all means, anyone can delve deeper into stats such as WPA/RA9/SIERA etc, to get a better read on players. Again, WAR is the best cumulative stat we have as to measure a player. James said the stat was dead wrong, nah, he's dead wrong.

 

Yeah he went too far in saying it was dead wrong. Flawed? yes.

[Boxcar]

Yeah he went too far in saying it was dead wrong. Flawed? yes.

 

Literally every stat is flawed. As a general quick reference, catch all stat, it's by far the best.

[wk680]

Literally every stat is flawed. As a general quick reference, catch all stat, it's by far the best.

 

Yeah fair enough

 

I still think the 'thinking fan' should look further, particularly if they are unconvinced on WAR itself. It's like taking a hypothetical replacement level team of 55-60 wins and then adding in the combined WAR of your players. It is not that simple. Intangibles and other factors still come into play.

[Ex Player]

Literally every stat is flawed. As a general quick reference, catch all stat, it's by far the best

No you're wrong, fWar literally catches everything.

 

 

 

/s

[Jonn]

Literally every stat is flawed. As a general quick reference, catch all stat, it's by far the best.

 

Sounds lazy to me.

[THANOS]

This was an interesting read.

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/alex-anthopoulos-atlanta-braves-josh-donaldson-wanted-to-be-a-blue-jay-for-life-150945227.html

 

I know there's some bad blood, but I'd love to see him re-sign here in the OS on a 2-3 yr deal or something.

 

Would make a scary top of the order with Bo, Vlad, JD, Gurriel, Biggio

[BTS]

Yeah fair enough

 

I still think the 'thinking fan' should look further, particularly if they are unconvinced on WAR itself. It's like taking a hypothetical replacement level team of 55-60 wins and then adding in the combined WAR of your players. It is not that simple. Intangibles and other factors still come into play.

 

I think most people here understand the issues with WAR when it comes to pitchers - it's not terribly useful for relievers because top guys can be used almost exclusively in high leverage situations, increasing their value beyond what a context-neutral stat would estimate. And it's extremely sensitive to good/bad HR/FB luck. I rarely look at WAR for pitchers.

 

For position players, WAR is critically important IMO. Trying to reconcile the relative values of offense, defense, baserunning, and framing for catchers without model similar to WAR is pretty much impossible for an average fan. Most people just end up letting their own biases cloud their opinions, and up missing the mark by miles because they were concerned that WAR would mislead them by a few feet. Remember the non-saber fan opinion of Ryan Goins?

[Brownie19]

Last week, MLB Network's resident sabermetric/WAR fan-boy Brian Kenney described on his show how, so far this season, Bryce Harper is way down the list in WAR (I believe 80+ in MLB) but is like 5th in his cumulative wPA (win probability added). They discussed the fact that maybe 'clutch' really exists and Harper personifies it (at least in 2019). The problem with WAR is that (like overall run differential and its use in the Pythagorean win - loss prediction) some of those stats can be accumulated in 'garbage time' and skew the apparent value of the player.

 

Again, I don't discount WAR, but I prefer also to look beyond that one headline number.

 

Discrediting WAR because clutch hitting 'may' be real (and that isn't accounted for in WAR) seems incredibly stupid. Prove that 'clutch' hitting is a talent, develop a way to measure it and then suggest it should be added in the WAR calculation.

 

It's my recollection that success with runners on base, runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. generally varies widely from year to year, which suggests it's not a talent. Nobody goes into the offseason with a goal of working on and improving their hitting with runners in scoring position. Nobody 'works' on being a better RBI guy.

 

That said - there are always a few hitters who consistently hit better with runners on base, runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. Harper appears to be that type of guy. I believe Big Papi was also. Poking holes in a stat based on a couple of outliers is pretty dumb - especially when it's pretty obvious that all stats have certain flaws.

[BTS]

Discrediting WAR because clutch hitting 'may' be real (and that isn't accounted for in WAR) seems incredibly stupid. Prove that 'clutch' hitting is a talent, develop a way to measure it and then suggest it should be added in the WAR calculation.

 

It's my recollection that success with runners on base, runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. generally varies widely from year to year, which suggests it's not a talent. Nobody goes into the offseason with a goal of working on and improving their hitting with runners in scoring position. Nobody 'works' on being a better RBI guy.

 

That said - there are always a few hitters who consistently hit better with runners on base, runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. Harper appears to be that type of guy. I believe Big Papi was also. Poking holes in a stat based on a couple of outliers is pretty dumb - especially when it's pretty obvious that all stats have certain flaws.

 

Bryce Harper's clutch score before this season was negative for his career. It's now slightly positive. We're just seeing good sequencing luck in 2019 - his BABIP with RISP is in 2019 is 0.443 and his BABIP with the bases empty is 0.212. People's tendency to attach importance to these kinds of fluctuations is exactly why WAR is so valuable.

[Laika]

Bryce Harper's clutch score before this season was negative for his career. It's now slightly positive. We're just seeing good sequencing luck in 2019 - his BABIP with RISP is in 2019 is 0.443 and his BABIP with the bases empty is 0.212. People's tendency to attach importance to these kinds of fluctuations is exactly why WAR is so valuable.

 

/thread

/poster

/forum

[Brownie19]

Bryce Harper's clutch score before this season was negative for his career. It's now slightly positive. We're just seeing good sequencing luck in 2019 - his BABIP with RISP is in 2019 is 0.443 and his BABIP with the bases empty is 0.212. People's tendency to attach importance to these kinds of fluctuations is exactly why WAR is so valuable.

 

I don't doubt you one bit, but I'm familiar with clutch scores. I was just looking at wRC+ with the bases empty, men on base and men in scoring position. He's been consistently better with MOB and MISP since 2016.

 

2019: Empty - 82, MOB - 176, MISP - 187

2018: Empty - 112, MOB - 165, MISP - 143

2017: Empty - 141, MOB - 171, MISP - 154

2016: Empty - 99, MOB - 124, MISP - 127

2015: Empty - 199, MOB - 195, MISP - 163

 

2014 was pretty ugly with MOB, MISP....maybe he practiced a lot to be better at this 'skill'

[Orgfiller]

I don't doubt you one bit, but I'm familiar with clutch scores. I was just looking at wRC+ with the bases empty, men on base and men in scoring position. He's been consistently better with MOB and MISP since 2016.

 

2019: Empty - 82, MOB - 176, MISP - 187

2018: Empty - 112, MOB - 165, MISP - 143

2017: Empty - 141, MOB - 171, MISP - 154

2016: Empty - 99, MOB - 124, MISP - 127

2015: Empty - 199, MOB - 195, MISP - 163

 

2014 was pretty ugly with MOB, MISP....maybe he practiced a lot to be better at this 'skill'

 

Not all of those situations are created equally. A bases loaded situation when the game is 10-1 in the 7th inning isn't the same as coming up with the bases empty in the 9th inning of a 1-run game. The sample sizes are also not equal throughout. Factoring for leverage, which is what goes into the Clutch score, here's Harper's career averages:

 

Low Leverage - 134 wRC+, 2319 PA

Medium Leverage - 145 wRC+, 1737 PA

High Leverage - 130 wRC+, 458 PA

Career: 138 wRC+

 

Maybe he's uncannily good at coming up in like 3-run games with a runner on base, but this basically says that his hitting profile isn't much different throughout the different scenarios. And if you go and look at the year by year data, which I'm not gonna lay all out, there's also plenty of variance in each context.

[Slade]

[Barkerfan23]

 

If they give him arbitration i'll be pissed. the 2.5M last year was a gift, its time to end this.

[Krylian]

If they give him arbitration i'll be pissed. the 2.5M last year was a gift, its time to end this.

 

There's no way Travis is back. The chapter is officially closed.

[Jimcanuck]

There's no way Travis is back. The chapter is officially closed.

 

Minor league deal, somewheres

[Krylian]

Minor league deal, somewheres

 

Probably. But I doubt it'll be here.

[Jonn]

Donaldson back to stick the dick in tonight. Phenomenal season he’s having. Glad hes off the turf and healthy.