General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Spanky99]

So he put up a 3.3 WAR in the 2 full seasons he played. I'm making the assessment that he is improving as a pitcher as good pitchers often do when they figure things out and enter their prime. At the end of the season when Stroman has put a good season, good luck in extending him when you offer him 3 years 33 mil for his free agent years. If Stroman isn't a 3.5 win pitcher, would you like to put a friendly wager on whether Stroman puts up 4.5 FWAR season or not. That should be easy money for you.

 

Throwing down the Gauntlet, I like this!

[Jimcanuck]

So he put up a 3.3 WAR in the 2 full seasons he played. I'm making the assessment that he is improving as a pitcher as good pitchers often do when they figure things out and enter their prime. At the end of the season when Stroman has put a good season, good luck in extending him when you offer him 3 years 33 mil for his free agent years. If Stroman isn't a 3.5 win pitcher, would you like to put a friendly wager on whether Stroman puts up 4.5 FWAR season or not. That should be easy money for you.

 

Stroman put up numbers similar to this April last June, with a similarly low BABIP. Some luck involved.

 

$20

[glory]

One way or another, the Jays have to make a decision. They made one with Grichuk. If they want to extend Stroman, do it now or prior to the trade deadline. If one or both sides are so far apart that there is no middle ground, then go for a trade. Can't afford to risk another JD situation where the asset value is practically nothing because they waited too long, or a Happ situation where Billy f'n McKinney is the main prospect coming back.

 

I'd honestly be disappointed if Stro is traded. Say what you want about him, but I enjoy watching him pitch, and he likes taking the ball in the big games (ex. starting game 5 of the ALDS and saving us from a David Price implosion, starting the WC game despite everyone saying to start Liriano, etc). There is a confidence when he is on the mound. He's not an ace but he's really good. I'd try to keep him around.

[sdyment]

FYI... Vladdy v Trout is the free MLBtv game of the day.

[Terminator]

Is there any data on how short/small pitchers age? Should that be a concern going forward? I also am not a HUGE fan of his stuff. It's definitely viable but it's all kind of thrown at a similar speed and he doesn't really have a changeup.

 

I'd be all for an extension but in order to break the bank I'd like to know how valid my above concerns are.

[BTS]

I don’t think I’ll ever criticize a FO for opting to sell high on a SP instead of paying them FA money. In the case of Stroman, keeping him means betting significant money on a pitcher, and also passing up what’s looking like a valuable trade return. I think there’s a valid case for moving him, and a valid case for extending him at market value.

[Laika]

Is Stroman improving? He's traded some fastballs for sliders and some groundballs for strikeouts and walks, but the current version hasn't actually been better than the comfortably above-average Stroman we've seen since 2014. He's good now. He's always been good.

 

Not enough information yet. He's getting super lucky on HR rate but I do like the repertoire changes he has done. The slider looks like an elite secondary and he is finally using it as often as he should. I would bet that he is clearly better than old Stroman.

[BTS]

Not enough information yet. He's getting super lucky on HR rate but I do like the repertoire changes he has done. The slider looks like an elite secondary and he is finally using it as often as he should. I would bet that he is clearly better than old Stroman.

 

Yeah, it seems like throwing the slider more should improve him. That barrier is pretty high though. Improvement takes him to like 5-WAR ace.

[Laika]

Yeah, it seems like throwing the slider more should improve him. That barrier is pretty high though. Improvement takes him to like 5-WAR ace.

 

It doesn't have to be that stark... maybe "improvement" just means he goes from a 3.5 win pitcher to a 4 win pitcher who is capable of seasonal variance that goes a bit higher.

 

His curveball (pitchFX or whatever on Fangraphs classifies it as a CB) is currently the best in baseball by run values. It looks like an uber-elite pitch to me. It completely owns hitters; the action is disgusting and it looks like the product of computerized, optimal pitch design or something.

[Barkerfan23]

Not enough information yet. He's getting super lucky on HR rate but I do like the repertoire changes he has done. The slider looks like an elite secondary and he is finally using it as often as he should. I would bet that he is clearly better than old Stroman.

 

Not to mention the GB%, add a few homeruns and he is back to his usualy self

 

(If not worse)

[Todd]

Question.

Why is no one talking about how good anthony alford is?

[jays4life19]

Question.

Why is no one talking about how good anthony alford is?

 

Probably because he's not good.

[Laika]

The scout tweets about Anthony Alford from spring training are f***ing hilarious now

[jmomcc]

I feel like it’s been mentioned a few times that he isn’t hitting.

 

And, yes I always hold my sides laughing when a blue jays prospect isn’t playing well.

[Krylian]

Question.

Why is no one talking about how good anthony alford is?

 

Anthony Alford must've have banged your mom or something. You certainly never miss a beat when it comes to pointing out his struggles.

[Spanky99]

So he put up a 3.3 WAR in the 2 full seasons he played. I'm making the assessment that he is improving as a pitcher as good pitchers often do when they figure things out and enter their prime. At the end of the season when Stroman has put a good season, good luck in extending him when you offer him 3 years 33 mil for his free agent years. If Stroman isn't a 3.5 win pitcher, would you like to put a friendly wager on whether Stroman puts up 4.5 FWAR season or not. That should be easy money for you.

 

Stroman put up numbers similar to this April last June, with a similarly low BABIP. Some luck involved.

 

$20

 

You guys need to make this official... https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/65-Official-Board-Wagers-Thread?p=1353963#post1353963

[Spanky99]

FYI... Vladdy v Trout is the free MLBtv game of the day.

 

Yeah, and it's Griffin Canning's MLB debut, me excite!

[saskjayfan]

The scout tweets about Anthony Alford from spring training are f***ing hilarious now

 

I’m guilty. Alford just looks like he should be good at baseball lol. I hope he can turn it around but it’s not looking so good right now!

[Deadpool]

I’m guilty. Alford just looks like he should be good at baseball lol. I hope he can turn it around but it’s not looking so good right now!

 

I still think he'd be better than Brito, assuming his D hasn't regressed.

[sdyment]

Yeah, and it's Griffin Canning's MLB debut, me excite!

 

Heard his name yesterday for the first time. What’s his deal?

[Spanky99]

Heard his name yesterday for the first time. What’s his deal?

 

Top 100 spect, arguably top 3 in their org.

 

Video- he's gotten much better since this... https://www.mlb.com/video/top-prospects-canning-laa-c2522260483

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

 

The Angels may have been the recipients of good fortune when Canning, the ace of UCLA's staff in 2017, slipped out of first-round conversations leading into the Draft. They were able to get the right-hander in the second round and then, after not having him pitch that first summer as a precaution, streak all the way up to Triple-A in his first full season of pro ball.

 

While size and a lack of premium stuff might limit Canning's ceiling a bit, his combination of athleticism, solid stuff and feel for pitching gives him a higher floor than many pitching prospects. He has a four-pitch mix with the chance of having all four being at least Major League average. He's added a couple of ticks on his fastball and averaged just over 94 mph with his heater in 2018. His secondary stuff has improved as well. Both of his distinct breaking balls have the chance of eventually being plus pitches, with some liking the curve a bit more than the slider at present. Canning throws his changeup with very good deception and he's shown the ability to set up hitters well and throw all four of his pitches for strikes thanks to a very repeatable delivery.

 

At times in 2018, Canning was guilty of overthrowing, especially when he got to Triple-A, which led to some command issues both in and out of the strike zone. No one expects that to be a long-term concern and Canning's ability to learn and make adjustments should have him ready to impact a big league staff as a mid-rotation starter soon.

 

Canning was used very heavily at UCLA and would sometimes throw in excess of 120 pitches during his starts, even as an underclassman. The Angels shelved him for the rest of the summer after they drafted him, and it paid off. Canning came out the following spring throwing harder than he had in college, his fastball sitting 94-97 for most of his starts. He held that velo throughout 2018 and reached Triple-A in his first pro season. He’s a No. 4 starter on the cusp of debut.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-31-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

[Spanky99]

Last night on MLB NOW... Ken Rosenthal said "I believe... *pauses* actually I've been told the Jays will be trading Stroman/Sanchez/Smoak amongst others for additional pieces before the deadline to get players that coincide with Vladdy's timeline, amongst Biggio and Bichette, etc"

 

Here's a neat graph...

 

 

 

Follow-up...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-seeing-few-good-pitches

 

bump... Tim and Sid are on point this show. Showed the clip of Kenny Ken from last night... now bringing up what the casuals would think or how ownership would if they sit close to a PS position and get the pressure from the top. IE:2013... trade them now or wait? Both hosts say trade by June 1st, if that's indeed their goal.

[Terminator]

Drury in RF tonight. Good move by Montoyo IMO.

[Spanky99]

Drury in RF tonight. Good move by Montoyo IMO.

 

Where'd you get that, Term?

[Terminator]

Where'd you get that, Term?

 

Arash Madani tweeted it. Looks like the lineup has been posted now though.

[Ray]

Drury in RF tonight. Good move by Montoyo IMO.

 

Statcast loves Drury despite his terrible start.

 

14.8% barrel%

.473 xWOBACON. This especially sticks out to me because this takes into account quality of contact.

45.9% Hard hit rate

xWOBA of .324 (this isn't exactly great, but still significantly better than his .290 actual wOBA that he's posting).

 

All in all, I see what the appeal is with Drury. There's something there. He can hit the ball really hard. It's just a matter of finding some measure of consistency. He might strikeout a lot and not walk much, but I really like him as a bottom of the order bat. When Brian Cashman trades a decent haul for you, you have to be somewhat good.

[Spanky99]

Arash Madani tweeted it. Looks like the lineup has been posted now though.

 

That's a decent line-up...

 

1. Eric Sogard (L) 2B

2. Freddy Galvis (S) SS

3. Randal Grichuk ® CF

4. Justin Smoak (S) DH

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ® 3B

6. Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B

7. Brandon Drury ® RF

8. Teoscar Hernandez ® LF

9. Luke Maile ® C

 

I'd switch Randal and Vlad, but fun.

[Brownie19]

Arash Madani tweeted it. Looks like the lineup has been posted now though.

 

Who the f*** follows Arash? You looking for cooking tips?

[Spanky99]

Statcast loves Drury despite his terrible start.

 

14.8% barrel%

.473 xWOBACON. This especially sticks out to me because this takes into account quality of contact.

45.9% Hard hit rate

xWOBA of .324 (this isn't exactly great, but still significantly better than his .290 actual wOBA that he's posting).

 

All in all, I see what the appeal is with Drury. There's something there. He can hit the ball really hard. It's just a matter of finding some measure of consistency. He might strikeout a lot and not walk much, but I really like him as a bottom of the order bat. When Brian Cashman trades a decent haul for you, you have to be somewhat good.

 

Yeah, there's few on this forum that believed(org/me,etc), he hits the ball hard and has looked good at the plate for a while.

[Carlos Danger]

Where'd you get that, Term?

 

Man, look at that affection.. I am jealous... Spanky only ever calls me mean names