Elvis Luciano Prediction Contest

[Jimcanuck]

I'm seeing it as the latter. At least 60 innings plus side-work.

 

I'm expecting shitload of side-work, rare appearances in low leverage situations, and Jays making good use of the Buffalo shuttle to make this work.

[Maico450]

40 innings. 5.00 era. 40 SO. 40 BB. 12 GF. Here all year and in Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2020.

They did not draft this kid, just to give him back.

[Abomination]

40 innings. 5.00 era. 40 SO. 40 BB. 12 GF. Here all year and in Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2020.

They did not draft this kid, just to give him back.

 

Teams give rule 5 guys back all the time after taking a brief look at them in ST. I suspect we'll keep him, but it's certainly not a given.

[Maico450]

I think that the 2019 Jays team will be a transition team, not worried about immediate results. There were other, more mature players available to draft if they were looking for short term results.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I think that the 2019 Jays team will be a transition team, not worried about immediate results. There were other, more mature players available to draft if they were looking for short term results.

 

If he looks like a big arm down the road, then in 2019 I don't give a s*** if his ERA is north of 10. They need to keep him. This year is a fun (for me anyway) developmental, experimental and talent prospecting year.

[rydermike]

How has our teenage rookie league major leaguer player looked this spring?

[King]

How has our teenage rookie league major leaguer player looked this spring?

 

Bad

[rydermike]

Bad

 

Yeah just saw an article from the score.

Luciano's status as a Rule 5 pick likely helped him crack the Blue Jays' roster after he struggled during spring training. He posted an 11.42 ERA and walked eight batters in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings, but did show some promise after recording 10 strikeouts.

 

Guess he's looking like a rookie league pitcher against mlbers. Who'd have thought

[Orgfiller]

How has our teenage rookie league major leaguer player looked this spring?

 

Exactly how you would expect a 19 year old who hadn't pitched above rookie ball to look. Good stuff but incredibly raw.

[bones10]

So what is the org planning on doing with him?

[Bobthe4th]

How has our teenage rookie league major leaguer player looked this spring?

 

Like he’ll last about a month of being hit around before being sent back when some of the injured relievers return.

[Bobthe4th]

Yeah just saw an article from the score.

 

“Luciano's status as a Rule 5 pick likely helped him crack the Blue Jays' roster after he struggled during spring training”

 

Guess he's looking like a rookie league pitcher against mlbers. Who'd have thought

 

“Likely” haha

[saskjayfan]

He showed more than enough this spring to indicate he's got good stuff and he's a real prospect. I don't see what the point in picking him was, if you weren't going to hide him on your roster and keep him for the year. The only reason to return him is if you get into the season and you think you realistically can compete for a playoff spot and you need a better bullpen option.

[glory]

The Jays are going to keep him for as long as they need to in order to hold his rights for six years and then IL him. Shatkins doesn't care about 2019. They'll find a way to work around this.

[BTS]

The Jays are going to keep him for as long as they need to in order to hold his rights for six years and then IL him. Shatkins doesn't care about 2019. They'll find a way to work around this.

 

If this works we'll probably see more if it from teams not contending. It makes sense for the team: they get a free prospect. And Luciano is probably thrilled even if he spends 3 months on the IL. Dude signed for 85k, and was looking to be years away from MLB money, if he made it at all. Now he's primed to make 550k this year.

[Abomination]

If this works we'll probably see more if it from teams not contending. It makes sense for the team: they get a free prospect. And Luciano is probably thrilled even if he spends 3 months on the IL. Dude signed for 85k, and was looking to be years away from MLB money, if he made it at all. Now he's primed to make 550k this year.

 

Plus a year of service time towards an MLB pension.

[Dick_Pole]

The Jays can barely fill out the roster with competent MLB pitchers right now. So what's the point of not dedicating a spot to him. Right now the decision point is keeping him or dumping him back to the Royals and saving some options on AAAA pitchers or having one extra spot to juggle Norris or Buchholz type of pitchers. Those guys aren't worth sacrificing this long shot prospect.

[Orgfiller]

If this works we'll probably see more if it from teams not contending. It makes sense for the team: they get a free prospect. And Luciano is probably thrilled even if he spends 3 months on the IL. Dude signed for 85k, and was looking to be years away from MLB money, if he made it at all. Now he's primed to make 550k this year.

 

I don't think it's common that guys like Luciano are available in the first place though. The FO exploited a loop hole to draft him, I'm not sure there's one Elvis Luciano scenario available in every Rule 5 draft.

[King]

I don't think it's common that guys like Luciano are available in the first place though. The FO exploited a loop hole to draft him, I'm not sure there's one Elvis Luciano scenario available in every Rule 5 draft.

Plus, by my understanding, this loophole was patched by MLB so it won't happen again. Luciano was a unique circumstance.

 

Other players like Cordoba and Wang who got plucked out of rookie ball have been completely outmatched talent wise, I don't think this is going to become a common occurrence. Luciano probably won't be much better than Wang was when he was with the Brewers in 2014.

 

I get that the raw stuff seems good but this whole scenario doesn't seem worth it to me. Luciano is a pretty fringe starting pitcher prospect, it's not like we are getting Forrest Whitley here. Is he really good enough to justify using a 25 man roster spot for all of 2019, then hoarding a valuable 40 man roster spot for 2020 to 2022? I suppose they could just DFA him but then you run the risk of another team claiming him and the whole thing being a big waste of energy.

[Abomination]

I get that the raw stuff seems good but this whole scenario doesn't seem worth it to me. Luciano is a pretty fringe starting pitcher prospect, it's not like we are getting Forrest Whitley here. Is he really good enough to justify using a 25 man roster spot for all of 2019, then hoarding a valuable 40 man roster spot for 2020 to 2022? I suppose they could just DFA him but then you run the risk of another team claiming him and the whole thing being a big waste of energy.

 

This was Atkins on him:

 

“Low 90s fastball, good feel for a breaking ball, good changeup, incredible delivery,” read Atkins’ scouting report on his newest acquisition. “The eye test is a very good and then our objective tests if you take the age and performance off of it, those benchmarks and measurements predict a major league pitcher. It’s just the lack of track record is why there’s so much risk to it and we feel the risk is worth it because of the upside.”

[Jonn]

Watch him go full Osuna and finish the season as the closer after Giles gets traded.

[Frag]

Meh.

[starfield]

38 innings. 4.6 ERA. FIP around 4.8.

[Spanky99]

38 innings. 4.6 ERA. FIP around 4.8.

 

Hello, stranger.

[Pendleton]

Who won?

[King]

My prediction is that he is back on the Royals before the season starts.

I don't know who won but Grant loses

[King]

He stays and is in contention for ROY, only to be beat out by Vlad the baseball impaler..

 

They will start him 6 inning or in non close games or mop up duty, he will do well, they will start progressively moving him into later innings and closer games. Innings limit will be in the conversation because he will be doing well... He will stick and be a key part of the 2020 roster...

 

 

 

69.2 IP

 

68 games

 

2.58 ERA

 

75 Ks

 

16 BB

 

ERA+ 159

 

WAR 1.9

 

SO9 9.7

 

WHIP 0.919

 

5.60 ERA

28 IP

20 K

13 BB

39 GB%

 

I gotchu King

 

3.80 era

42 ip

40 k

27 bb

45 gb%

 

2.45 ERA

22 IP

19 k

11 bb

45.8 gb%

4.12 FIP

 

He will pitch in some blowout games.

 

38 IP

5.08 ERA

1.39 WHIP

32 Ks

18 BBs

 

5.50 era

35 ip

40 k

33 bb

40 gb%

 

But, I think he sticks with the team for the whole year.

 

8.25 ERA

26 IP

14 K

21 BB

42% GB

 

TJS and Jays retain him.

 

6.54 era

33 ip

17k

15bb

45% gb

 

0.69 ERA

91IP

24H

135k

5BB

50% GB

 

5.61 era

29 ip

21k

14bb

40gb%

 

he'll stay with jays.... they knew exactly what they were getting into when they picked him, zero expectations of contributing any value in 2019

 

30 IP, 5.5 FIP

 

40 innings. 5.00 era. 40 SO. 40 BB. 12 GF. Here all year and in Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2020.

They did not draft this kid, just to give him back.

 

Luciano's season: 33.2 IP 5.35 ERA 27K 24BB 38.1 GB%

 

not sure who won but a lot of people were close

[Jimcanuck]

Predicted 30 IP, actual 33.2

 

Predicted 5.5 FIP, actual 5.56

 

Just give me the damn prize already

[TheHurl]

Predicted 30 IP, actual 33.2

 

Predicted 5.5 FIP, actual 5.56

 

Just give me the damn prize already

 

You won the right to speak at Boxy's Mod inauguration

[Abomination]

You won the right to speak at Boxy's Mod inauguration