Offseason Roster Thread

[BTS]

"odds of a highly touted MiLB arm actually contributing as a good MLB starter are so small"

 

 

So Why are people so convinced an average MiLB pitcher in Merryweather is a solid number three MLB starter nest year then..lol. I don't care if it's trade for existing MLB arm, sign proven free agent arms or drafting them. We probably aren't competing the next two years and stroman and Sanchez will be gone. I'm not sure how good those two are the next 2 years anyways. You probably need a pipeline of 10 to 12 guys to get 3 or 4 guys that can be quality controllable starters that you can supplement with 2 or 3 more guys from free agency. I like Reid foley, Pearson, maybe Borucki, some might throw in ZeuchÂ….I'm not sure I would. There's some interesting young international arms...but I don't think the list is anywhere near long enough. I hope they focus on Pitching with next year's top pick.

 

Literally nobody is convinced Merryweather will ever be a #3 starter. He’s just the kind of guy we should be adding on the cheap hoping a couple pan out.

[Terminator]

"odds of a highly touted MiLB arm actually contributing as a good MLB starter are so small"

 

 

So Why are people so convinced an average MiLB pitcher in Merryweather is a solid number three MLB starter nest year then..lol. I don't care if it's trade for existing MLB arm, sign proven free agent arms or drafting them. We probably aren't competing the next two years and stroman and Sanchez will be gone. I'm not sure how good those two are the next 2 years anyways. You probably need a pipeline of 10 to 12 guys to get 3 or 4 guys that can be quality controllable starters that you can supplement with 2 or 3 more guys from free agency. I like Reid foley, Pearson, maybe Borucki, some might throw in ZeuchÂ….I'm not sure I would. There's some interesting young international arms...but I don't think the list is anywhere near long enough. I hope they focus on Pitching with next year's top pick.

 

Taking a page out of Tercet's playbook in where one creates a strawman fanboy that doesn't exist on this board and then argues against that fanboy. This time it's Merryweather instead of Teoscar.

[John_Havok]

Taking a page out of Tercet's playbook in where one creates a strawman fanboy that doesn't exist on this board and then argues against that fanboy. This time it's Merryweather instead of Teoscar.

 

It's getting to be an epidemic

[jaysblue]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-off-season-roadmap-acquire-cut-loose/

 

Anyone read this piece from Ben Nicholson-Smith?

 

Adding Sonny Gray and Trevor Cahill to the rotation would be interesting. Both have some potential upside still and could be dealt at the deadline if they're having solid years.

 

Love the idea of trading for Adam Conley for the BP. Could possibly be the next Andrew Miller IMO.

 

A rotation like this wouldn't be bad for 2019:

 

1) Stroman

2) Sanchez

3) Gray

4) Cahill

5) Borucki

 

Reid-Foley, Pannone, Gaviglio as AAA depth.

[Ray]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-off-season-roadmap-acquire-cut-loose/

 

Anyone read this piece from Ben Nicholson-Smith?

 

Adding Sonny Gray and Trevor Cahill to the rotation would be interesting. Both have some potential upside still and could be dealt at the deadline if they're having solid years.

 

Love the idea of trading for Adam Conley for the BP. Could possibly be the next Andrew Miller IMO.

 

A rotation like this wouldn't be bad for 2019:

 

1) Stroman

2) Sanchez

3) Gray

4) Cahill

5) Borucki

 

Reid-Foley, Pannone, Gaviglio as AAA depth.

 

Add TJ Zeuch, Julian Merryweather, and Jordan Romano to that AAA depth as well.

[Orgfiller]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-off-season-roadmap-acquire-cut-loose/

 

Anyone read this piece from Ben Nicholson-Smith?

 

Adding Sonny Gray and Trevor Cahill to the rotation would be interesting. Both have some potential upside still and could be dealt at the deadline if they're having solid years.

 

Love the idea of trading for Adam Conley for the BP. Could possibly be the next Andrew Miller IMO.

 

A rotation like this wouldn't be bad for 2019:

 

1) Stroman

2) Sanchez

3) Gray

4) Cahill

5) Borucki

 

Reid-Foley, Pannone, Gaviglio as AAA depth.

 

I like the idea of buying low on Gray but when it's only for one year I don't know if it makes a ton of sense. If he has a great year then he leaves at the end of the season, if he's mediocre then he would have been blocking a young starter from auditioning for a role in the future.

 

Cahill on a cheap 1-2 year would be alright provided that he can still reach 150 innings if necessary.

[jaysblue]

I like the idea of buying low on Gray but when it's only for one year I don't know if it makes a ton of sense. If he has a great year then he leaves at the end of the season, if he's mediocre then he would have been blocking a young starter from auditioning for a role in the future.

 

Cahill on a cheap 1-2 year would be alright provided that he can still reach 150 innings if necessary.

 

If Gray has a great year, he becomes a moveable asset at the trade deadline. Jays would easily be able to turn him into some younger pieces. I would be more than willing to trade Diaz for him. I doubt he'll cost much in trade.

 

Cahill can probably give you 120-150 solid innings as a baseline, with the potential for more. If he can give you the same value Estrada provided from 2015-2016, he would be a steal and could easily flip him at the deadline after as well.

[Laika]

If Gray has a great year, he becomes a moveable asset at the trade deadline. Jays would easily be able to turn him into some younger pieces. I would be more than willing to trade Diaz for him. I doubt he'll cost much in trade.

 

Cahill can probably give you 120-150 solid innings as a baseline, with the potential for more. If he can give you the same value Estrada provided from 2015-2016, he would be a steal and could easily flip him at the deadline after as well.

 

probably? he hasn't gone over 110 since 2012

[glory]

After what happened at the deadline this year, you think Shatkins wants to have a rental to trade at the deadline? Unless we get Gray (Sonny) for practically nothing, I'd pass. Now if we're talking about Gray (Jon), then that's a different story.

[Orgfiller]

If Gray has a great year, he becomes a moveable asset at the trade deadline. Jays would easily be able to turn him into some younger pieces. I would be more than willing to trade Diaz for him. I doubt he'll cost much in trade.

 

Cahill can probably give you 120-150 solid innings as a baseline, with the potential for more. If he can give you the same value Estrada provided from 2015-2016, he would be a steal and could easily flip him at the deadline after as well.

 

You'd trade four years of Aledmys Diaz for one of Sonny Gray? Really? That would be awful for us.

[Olerud363]

You have a strange definition of zero.

 

We have one guy who threw 11 straight balls once

We have one guy who scouts as well as anyone but broke his arm and didn't play

We have two guys who are crafty lefties and everyone is suspicous of that type

We have one guy who has the numbers of an all time great, but is a 17 year old runt

 

Those are 5 guys who are no ones, worth nothing, zero. Then the other guys we have are so forgettable that they are below those other 5 guys who are nothing

 

They say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect... but there is.

 

Pitching prospects

 

1. Are 6'2" or higher... ideally 6'4"

2. Throw very hard

3. Have excellent mechnaics

4. Have Padino like numbers, but aren't runty

5. Have consistent numbers

6. Never throw more than 5 balls in a row

7. have excellent scouting grades on all their pitches

8. Have a pristine health record

 

No one else has a chance. We have no pitching prospects. And should trade Bo Bichette for one.

[Ray]

We have one guy who threw 11 straight balls once

We have one guy who scouts as well as anyone but broke his arm and didn't play

We have two guys who are crafty lefties and everyone is suspicous of that type

We have one guy who has the numbers of an all time great, but is a 17 year old runt

 

Those are 5 guys who are no ones, worth nothing, zero. Then the other guys we have are so forgettable that they are below those other 5 guys who are nothing

 

They say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect... but there is.

 

Pitching prospects

 

1. Are 6'2" or higher... ideally 6'4"

2. Throw very hard

3. Have excellent mechnaics

4. Have Padino like numbers, but aren't runty

5. Have consistent numbers

6. Never throw more than 5 balls in a row

7. have excellent scouting grades on all their pitches

8. Have a pristine health record

 

No one else has a chance. We have no pitching prospects. And should trade Bo Bichette for one.

 

That's because pitching prospects are more volatile than position player prospects: https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

Look at the Red Sox and Astros rotations. Their best starters aren't homegrown. They were signed as free agents or traded for.

 

You build a young position player core that's cheap, and then pay for premium proven pitchers afterwards.

[Spanky__99]

Fun article by BNS on offseason decisions...

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-off-season-roadmap-acquire-cut-loose/

[Olerud363]

That's because pitching prospects are more volatile than position player prospects: https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

Look at the Red Sox and Astros rotations. Their best starters aren't homegrown. They were signed as free agents or traded for.

 

You build a young position player core that's cheap, and then pay for premium proven pitchers afterwards.

 

I agree with you, my post was just satire.

[Spanky__99]

I agree with you, my post was just satire.

 

I was going to let him know, but decided I'd let you or someone else tell him, lol

[Dick_Pole]

I like the idea of buying low on Gray but when it's only for one year I don't know if it makes a ton of sense. If he has a great year then he leaves at the end of the season, if he's mediocre then he would have been blocking a young starter from auditioning for a role in the future.

 

Cahill on a cheap 1-2 year would be alright provided that he can still reach 150 innings if necessary.

 

If Gray is good then he increases the chances that this team competes for a playoff spot, with a lot of other things going right. If he sucks then you dump him to the pen, trade him for PTBNL or DFA him if he is *really* blocking a guy in AAA for a starter role audition.

 

But Gray for Diaz, I don't know about that.

[Dick_Pole]

After what happened at the deadline this year, you think Shatkins wants to have a rental to trade at the deadline? Unless we get Gray (Sonny) for practically nothing, I'd pass. Now if we're talking about Gray (Jon), then that's a different story.

 

I really hope the Jays do get Jon Gray. With the amount of armchair QB we have on this board who think they are smarter and have more information than the Rockies' FO pushing for him, I want to see if they are actually right.

[Boxcar]

I really hope the Jays do get Jon Gray. With the amount of armchair QB we have on this board who think they are smarter and have more information than the Rockies' FO pushing for him, I want to see if they are actually right.

 

Ian Desmond is their first baseman. That should really tell you everything you need to know.

[Dick_Pole]

Ian Desmond is their first baseman. That should really tell you everything you need to know.

 

That they have outstanding lack of depth at the position despite being a playoff team? Morales could probably rake there. Morales for Desmond and Gray. Jays get him for basically a salary dump. Actually looking at Desmond's contract that is still a little too cringy. Give them back Tulo as well and we have a deal.

[KevinGregg]

That they have outstanding lack of depth at the position despite being a playoff team? Morales could probably rake there. Morales for Desmond and Gray. Jays get him for basically a salary dump. Actually looking at Desmond's contract that is still a little too cringy. Give them back Tulo as well and we have a deal.

 

38 million for Desmond, minus 11 million for Morales

27 million for 3 Arb years of Gray. That might be worth

[glory]

38 million for Desmond, minus 11 million for Morales

27 million for 3 Arb years of Gray. That might be worth

 

Desmond has a $2m buyout, so it's really 3/40 for him, plus he will get a NTC if he's traded. Even if the Rox take Morales, that leaves the Jays on the hook for 3/28 on a really s***** player. If it means getting Gray for nothing then you have to consider it considering where the Jays are with SPs, but that's a lot of dead weight money.

[vic city]

Morales 108 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR this year (for 11M)

Encarnacion 115 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR this year (for 17M plus part of 5M signing bonus)

 

~ Equally s***** "value" from the DH spot

 

I'm curious where you're getting these numbers from. BR has Edwin @ 1.9 WAR and Morales at 0.8 WAR. Not the best stats but quite a bit higher than the numbers you posted.

[Dick_Pole]

Desmond has a $2m buyout, so it's really 3/40 for him, plus he will get a NTC if he's traded. Even if the Rox take Morales, that leaves the Jays on the hook for 3/28 on a really s***** player. If it means getting Gray for nothing then you have to consider it considering where the Jays are with SPs, but that's a lot of dead weight money.

 

You also have to see it from the perspective of Rockies fans. They'll probably view it the same way we view the Vernon Wells trade and think their FO is brilliant. Except the Napoli player in the deal is going the opposite way.

[Spanky__99]

I'm curious where you're getting these numbers from. BR has Edwin @ 1.9 WAR and Morales at 0.8 WAR. Not the best stats but quite a bit higher than the numbers you posted.

 

fWAR? C'mon bruh!

[vic city]

fWAR? C'mon bruh!

 

Lol clearly I'm incapable of independent thought.

 

What are your thought on fangraphs vs BBR? Would it be best practice to avg out the 2 numbers? Asking for a friend

[glory]

You also have to see it from the perspective of Rockies fans. They'll probably view it the same way we view the Vernon Wells trade and think their FO is brilliant. Except the Napoli player in the deal is going the opposite way.

 

Well if it's Morales for Desmond and Gray, then I don't think Rockies fans would consider it a Vernon type of trade. It would be like if the Jays traded Wells and Morrow to the Angels for Napoli, or something like that. Gray would be the intriguing wild card piece that either could turn out to be really good or continue along the path that he's on (which is still pretty good). I don't think the Rox would trade Gray just to save $28m over three years, but who knows what the hell that front office would do.

[Spanky__99]

Lol clearly I'm incapable of independent thought.

 

What are your thought on fangraphs vs BBR? Would it be best practice to avg out the 2 numbers? Asking for a friend

 

Stick with fWAR as reference.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/wins-above-replacement

[Abomination]

Apparently Rosenthal hit 100 mph in a showcase earlier this month. He'd look good in our pen in a prominent role, and could provide a decent return at the deadline.

[Pendleton]

Apparently Rosenthal hit 100 mph in a showcase earlier this month. He'd look good in our pen in a prominent role, and could provide a decent return at the deadline.

 

Yeah that's a no brainer if you can get him for a reasonably low guarantee

[Laika]

Yeah that's a no brainer if you can get him for a reasonably low guarantee

 

Or just offer him the most money and make a gamble on being able to turn him into a prospect. The team should have payroll space.