Billy Mckinney top comparables

[Krylian]

McKinney reminds me of a white Kenny Lofton minus the speed.

 

He's Kenny Lofton minus the speed.

 

I don't see colour.

[Olerud363]

After a lot of deep thought I believe that Billy Mckinney is the next Domonic Brown

 

You may not remember but at his peak in 2013 Brown had an extremely typical Justin Upton like season. In fact if you took an average Justin Upton season , and Brown's 2013 they would look exactly the same. No one would be able to tell the difference.

 

Billy Mckinney's peak = Domonic Brown peak = Justin Upton average

[Carlos Danger]

McKinley actually reminds me of Brett Gardner

 

Ditto, I was thinking exactly the same. I concur Dr.

[Olerud363]

Ditto, I was thinking exactly the same. I concur Dr.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/billy-mckinney-pads-blue-jays-lead-solo-hr/

 

The homerun last night reminded me of classic Olerud from the 93 series

 

 

On second thought Mckinney has a nice swing, but a lot of movement compared to Olerud, It's pretty unbelievable how effortless Olerud was.

[KevinGregg]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/billy-mckinney-pads-blue-jays-lead-solo-hr/

 

The homerun last night reminded me of classic Olerud from the 93 series

 

 

On second thought Mckinney has a nice swing, but a lot of movement compared to Olerud, It's pretty unbelievable how effortless Olerud was.

 

Yeah, the swing path is similar but Mckinney really loads up. Much more violent swing. Olerud looks like hes just chilling

[Olerud363]

Also Mckinney per 162 games

 

162 610 515 181 48 0 38 76 133 .352 .438 .667 1.104

 

The only player I can recall having numbers like this is classic Larry Walker... and that was in Colorado.

[Grant77]

Also Mckinney per 162 games

 

162 610 515 181 48 0 38 76 133 .352 .438 .667 1.104

 

The only player I can recall having numbers like this is classic Larry Walker... and that was in Colorado.

 

This is only his rookie season, so clearly he's going to be better than Walker.

[BTS]

It looks like he has more power than Upton, and strikes out less. Maybe less speed and worse defense. But overall, a Justin Upton level of impact seems reasonable.

[bones10]

The real question, is what does terecet think?

[tercet]

The real question, is what does terecet think?

 

Reed Johnson with/without the giant platoon splits?

[metafour]

Reed Johnson with/without the giant platoon splits?

 

Reed Johnson was a complete slap hitter. What kind of crap comparison is that? Maybe McKinney out of HS would fit that profile, but not his power-oriented new approach.

[tercet]

Reed Johnson was a complete slap hitter. What kind of crap comparison is that? Maybe McKinney out of HS would fit that profile, but not his power-oriented new approach.

 

McKinney had a 300obp this year in AAA fyi

[KevinGregg]

McKinney had a 300obp this year in AAA fyi

 

Serious question: Which of the players in our system do you think will actually turn out to be good players?

[tercet]

Serious question: Which of the players in our system do you think will actually turn out to be good players?

 

VGJ, DJ, Borucki, Pearson, Bichette ..

[Grant77]

McKinney had a 300obp this year in AAA fyi

 

So what? He had a good walk rate and was crushing a ton of line drives. That OBP is mostly bad luck.

[tercet]

So what? He had a good walk rate and was crushing a ton of line drives. That OBP is mostly bad luck.

 

Cmon Grant..

[Olerud363]

So what? He had a good walk rate and was crushing a ton of line drives. That OBP is mostly bad luck.

 

I agree with you. It wasn't even 300 at bats and his career milb on base percentage is .348

[Brownie19]

McKinney had a 300obp this year in AAA fyi

 

Reed Johnson's career OBP was .335 at the major league level. His career OBP in the minors was .381 - so again, your comparison is s***.

[Spanky__99]

Y'all getting trolled.

[tercet]

Reed Johnson's career OBP was .335 at the major league level. His career OBP in the minors was .381 - so again, your comparison is s***.

 

???? Do you think McKinney will have a better mlb career then Reed Johnson ????

[Laika]

McKinney is extremely interesting to me.

 

For the first four years of his pro career he consistently received plus grades on his hit tool, had a flat swing that scouts loved, and he put up decent AVG and OBP figures (the AVG varied but the OBP was always good). But he didn't hit for power, to the point that scouting reports wondered if he even had 50 grade game power.

 

Then he changed his approach. In 2017 he walked less often than ever but hit for way more power. In 2018 in MiLB the power trend continued but his AVG plummeted and took the OBP with it. Scouting reports started to indicate that he had plus game power but a below average hit tool in games!

 

It's just such a wonderful illustration of the often negative connection (or the trade off) between the "hit tool" and the "power tool". A scientific experiment in baseball scouting that really pecks away at our preconceived notion of what a tool is. Or perhaps it's just a great illustration of the trade offs that certain players who have average-ish tools need to make in order to find the formula of in-game skill presentation that works for them.

 

McKinney, at a glance, seems to be a guy who can intentionally be a 60 hit, 40 power dude or a 40 hit, 60 power dude (roughly grading) but he does not have the tool-set to be a 60 hit, 60 power guy. It's just not possible given his abilities, ostensibly.

 

Of course the second wrinkle is that power is positively linked to OBP in some instances, if the player has a good eye. So a 40 hit tool with a great approach can still equal great production. Look no further than Jose Bautista in certain years, of course. But approach vs. hit tool is a big rabbit hole.

 

I think Billy McKinney is my new favourite Blue Jay not named Danny Jansen.

[Angrioter]

Justin Upton

[Olerud363]

Justin Upton

 

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview

 

Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

[saskjayfan]

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview

 

Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

 

now we just need the dozens of pitchers to get a handful that might be good.

[THANOS]

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview

 

Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

 

Lol nice try.

[Angrioter]

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview

 

Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

 

Grant and Tercet please.

 

Hurl and his radio scouting could help too

[Jimcanuck]

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview

 

Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

 

They've been in touch.

[TBJ12]

Has anyone mentioned Brett Gardner as a comparable? Decent bat, has pop, plays good defence, solid baserunner and all around pain in the ass for the opposition.

[Carlos Danger]

Has anyone mentioned Brett Gardner as a comparable? Decent bat, has pop, plays good defence, solid baserunner and all around pain in the ass for the opposition.

 

Yes, two of us at least in this thread have had the same thought. First player that came to mind after I saw him a few times. I just wrote in the GDT that I think he is the first legitimate lead off hitter we have had since Ben Revere..

[John_Havok]

Yes, two of us at least in this thread have had the same thought. First player that came to mind after I saw him a few times. I just wrote in the GDT that I think he is the first legitimate lead off hitter we have had since Ben Revere..

 

Revere was an average-ish leadoff hitter for the Jays. If that's your bar for a good leadoff hitter then you clearly don't expect much