2018 MLB Draft Thread

[P2F]

Kiley brought up Swaggerty in his chat yesterday and noted that he was getting Trea Turner vibes in that people are overthinking putting too much thought into finding "red flags" for a guy with big tools and a track record of production. I'd be happy with Kelenic, but its not like he's an infallible prospect himself, and really: what does he do that Swaggery hasn't already done in college against much better competition? He's just a less proven version of Swaggerty, and its not like his upside is really any higher either.

 

Lol holy f***. Kiley, probably more than anyone, has mentioned supposed "make-up issues" with Swaggerty. He's discussed it on multiple occasions. Whether or not he was just repeating another source doesn't matter. He is at least partly responsible for the hullabaloo regarding Swaggerty's red flags. So he's blaming himself? JFC.

 

What even! That pisses me right the f*** off.

[Brownie19]

This brought to mind when AA personally scouted Yu Darvish and he had a bad game that day. Small sample size caveats should apply to old school scouting just as much as they do to stat scouting. If you're going to base your whole evaluation on a single game, you'd be better off staying home.

 

You're absolutely right. If your plan is to go see the kid live and you're going to place ANY stock in the results - stay the f*** home because that's an incredibly flawed approach. Christ - even interviewing the player is BS because it's so easy to put on the Eddie Haskell face. Do we have any insight as to how teams scout these days?

 

You'd think the best investment would be to watch videos, analysis the results + statcast measurables, evaluate techique/consistency and then speak to people who have coached the kid.

[Slade]

Anyone have Law's mock draft that went up today? 2 weeks ago he still said we were on College pitchers like Gilbert.

[metafour]

12. Toronto Blue Jays: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Nacogdoches (Texas) HS

 

As with the O's, the Jays were assumed to be on college pitching, but that seems to be out the window, at least according to the latest slander. Swaggerty's floor is probably here. They also could go with Kelenic, Connor Scott or Ryan Rolison, and they're getting linked to Noah Naylor, but that might just be because everyone assumes they're on the Canadian player. They're also one of the teams linked to Xavier Edwards, if he gets to their second pick.

[Jonn]

I am still holding out hope that Shane McClanahan drops to us.

[metafour]

I am still holding out hope that Shane McClanahan drops to us.

 

Uhh, he's likely dropped PAST us lol. His command has been terrible, walking something like 5 or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Plus TJ surgery already. Throwing hard simply isn't enough at this point.

[Slade]

I am still holding out hope that Shane McClanahan drops to us.

 

His stock is plummeting, no command.

[Spanky99]

You need to stop blaming me for drafting Garrett Cooper 2nd overall.

 

Should've stuck him with it, POS, lol

[jays4life19]

Should've stuck him with it, POS, lol

 

Blame BTS. He let him redo the pick.

[Spanky99]

This brought to mind when AA personally scouted Yu Darvish and he had a bad game that day. Small sample size caveats should apply to old school scouting just as much as they do to stat scouting. If you're going to base your whole evaluation on a single game, you'd be better off staying home.

 

You don't scout results? That'd absurd.

[Jonn]

Uhh, he's likely dropped PAST us lol. His command has been terrible, walking something like 5 or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Plus TJ surgery already. Throwing hard simply isn't enough at this point.

 

Yup will probably draft Ryan Rolison with his elite poise.

[King]

You need to stop blaming me for drafting Garrett Cooper 2nd overall.

Speaking of which, David Jacob can't break out of extended as a 23 year old.

[TwistedLogic]

For me (and probably a lot around here) there is a profile type we like.

 

This. I prefer players with mature tools over loud tools. I'd take someone with advanced command over someone with a 100 mph fastball and I'd take a guy with advanced plate discipline and contact abilities over someone with elite speed or defense. Like any other strategy, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. I would have taken Aaron Nola and Kyle Freeland over Tyler Kolek in a heartbeat and I would have laughed my ass to the bank. At the same time, I would have taken Alex Jackson and Max Pentecost over Trea Turner and regretted it in the long run. I still think my thought process will hit on more prospects than the average, so I stick with it.

[jays4life19]

Speaking of which, David Jacob can't break out of extended as a 23 year old.

 

RIP Frenchsoup

[jays4life19]

My new favourite word is hullabaloo. Much Thanks P2F

[P2F]

My new favourite word is hullabaloo. Much Thanks P2F

 

My pleasure, JFL.

 

Brouhaha and fracas were also strongly considered at the time of posting.

[BlueRocky]

Uhh, he's likely dropped PAST us lol. His command has been terrible, walking something like 5 or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Plus TJ surgery already. Throwing hard simply isn't enough at this point.

 

The TJS is well known, and the poor command was there even when he was considered top 10. His poor performance in conference play really killed his stock.

 

He has games throwing 89-91mph and topping 95. Avg 93.

It would be different if he was sitting 96 and topping 100mph consistently.

 

His changeup is effective but he doesn’t have a real curve, slider, or splitter to project him a starter.

 

His strikeout numbers are still impressive though

[baubau]

The TJS is well known, and the poor command was there even when he was considered top 10. His poor performance in conference play really killed his stock.

 

He has games throwing 89-91mph and topping 95. Avg 93.

It would be different if he was sitting 96 and topping 100mph consistently.

 

His changeup is effective but he doesn’t have a real curve, slider, or splitter to project him a starter.

 

His strikeout numbers are still impressive though

 

So, would a J.A. Happ be a fair comp for him? Maybe with a more lively fastball. Don't think Happ has ever hit 100 lol

[Jonn]

The TJS is well known, and the poor command was there even when he was considered top 10. His poor performance in conference play really killed his stock.

 

He has games throwing 89-91mph and topping 95. Avg 93.

It would be different if he was sitting 96 and topping 100mph consistently.

 

His changeup is effective but he doesn’t have a real curve, slider, or splitter to project him a starter.

 

His strikeout numbers are still impressive though

 

If thats the case with the fastball inconsistency I may feel different. But from everything I have read on him he has elite stuff. I would rather take my chances on a guy big arm and trust in coach's and player development staff to improve him mechanics. Rather then to draft another ''safe'' college arm whose ceiling at best might be a mid rotation starter and they never end up in the back end of rotation.

 

See Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, and Jon Harris. The only college arm in the first round that has actually worked out for us in recent memory is Marcus Stroman.

[BlueRocky]

We need starting pitching pretty badly in the system, left handed pitching especially. Going for the guy with the highest ceiling is a good idea since drafting pitching is such a crapshoot. And you’re right, command issues can be mended in the minors.

And even if he ends up in the bullpen it’s not the end of the world. We have been desperate when it comes to left handed relievers.

 

But I’m not sold at McClanahan being the best player available at #12. When you draft that high you have to take the best player available. If we were drafting #20s McClanahan would be a nice gamble. But at 12 you have so many options.

 

If you are looking for high upside pitching, big risk big reward picks, I’d look at Carter Stewart or Cole Wilcox. Liberatore would be a dream pick. And if you’re not worried about injury concerns, Denaburg and Hankins also has electric stuff, but I personally wouldn’t gamble for them at 12.

 

Cole Winn would be a balance of upside and projectability.

 

I would rather take a flyer with a bat like Swaggerty, Kelenic, India, Lanarch, or even Gorman

Edited June 1, 2018 by BlueRocky

[Dr. Dinger]

But I’m not sold at McClanahan being the best player available at #12. When you draft that high you have to take the best player available. If we were drafting #20s McClanahan would be a nice gamble. But at 12 you have so many options.

 

I never like to bank on guys with elite fastballs learning how to throw strikes later on.

[Ray]

Plenty of arms with great stuff and no command will be available to us with our second pick. It'll more come down to the fact that better players than McLanahan will be available to us at #12, and with the draft you should always go with the best player left.

[P2F]

I never like to bank on guys with elite fastballs learning how to throw strikes later on.

 

Riley Pint, for example.

[Laika]

Tyler Kolek lol

[Krylian]

Nolan Ryan.

 

Whoops!

 

I meant Randy Johnson.....

 

....nevermind.

[BlueRocky]

J.T. Ginn

Tanner Dodson

Aaron Hernandez

Durbin Feltman

Jason Bilous

[Maahfaace]

Tyler Kolek lol

 

I love how fangraphs on only shows "fastball, command, future value" for his prospect report lol

[BlueRocky]

 

Baseball America just posted a new mock draft, anyone can hook us up?

[devo]

Fangraphs has another mock out today. They have us taking Cole Winn at 12 and Seth Beer at 52.

[Slade]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/

12. Toronto Jays – Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

 

The Jays have been tied mostly to prep prospects (like Liberatore and Kelenic) that we have coming off ahead of them. They are also on Florida prep righty Mason Denaburg, are seen as the stopping point for a Swaggerty slide, are also on Ole Miss lefty Ryan Rolison, and have some interest in Rocker.

 

52. Toronto Blue Jays – Seth Beer, DH, Clemson