General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[SaskJaysFan_2]

http://i.imgur.com/9HnRmzA.jpg

 

It would have been way cooler if he had used the iron throne from GOT.

[G-Snarls]

I feel like Machado's douche factor has been really overblown for years now. Other than the Donaldson incidents, I can't recall him doing anything particularly douchey and those were years ago.

 

He doesn't touch Adam Jones. That guy is a f***ing douche.

 

Yeah

 

Machado has been pretty classy the last two years

 

I want to continue to dislike him but he gives me no reason to. (Other than being a very good player on a team I despise...)

[G-Snarls]

It would have been way cooler if he had used the iron throne from GOT.

 

Agreed

 

Though I'm. Biased as I'm half way through binge watching the whole series in a month

[TheHurl]

That’s racist

 

Most of the white D-Bags are retiring or retired (PieGuy, Papelbon, Lackey, Lawrie, Myers all come to mind...and ARod if you consider him white) with only Harper to carry the torch now.

[Rusty_Savage]

John Rocker was the best

[Spanky99]

Agreed

 

Though I'm. Biased as I'm half way through binge watching the whole series in a month

 

Hah... same, on season 4... anyhow, I don't understand all the virulent comments on this picture as it was for a New Era Caps photoshoot... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Deadpool]

John Rocker was the best

 

Cool, it's opposite day, thanks for the heads' up!

[Spanky99]

Cool, it's opposite day, thanks for the heads' up!

 

lol

[Key22]

Abyine know if there is a historical site that compared the team WAR expected win totals with the actual results. So if a team based on added up WAR was supposed to win 100 games hiw they actually did.

[Olerud363]

Abyine know if there is a historical site that compared the team WAR expected win totals with the actual results. So if a team based on added up WAR was supposed to win 100 games hiw they actually did.

 

Teams are rarely projected to win 100 games... the reason being that predictions don't predict lucky outliers. Teams that win 100 usually have luck (good health, surprise performances, no surprise negatives, etc.). So for a 100 win team WAR predicts 90 -- then luck ticks it up to 100.

 

The WAR predictions will be off enough that people will start claiming "WAR is a bunch of crap, by god, me and my Uncle Ted, 83 years young, Ted saw every game since 1977, half of them in black and white, we predicted the standing with know-how. Ya can't beat know-how, and that's something the eggheads need to learn"

 

So what is really needed is rigorous testing of multiple prediction systems. Over a series of years fangraphs WAR could be tested against other systems, including "you and Uncle Ted".

 

Neither will be perfect. I'm rambling a bit, but I just want to really emphasize, testing WAR predictions alone is useless and dangerous. The errors will be used as evidence by people that "good old common sense and scout's intuition" beats WAR. That's not true. Ya gotta test both, and see which one makes better predictions.

 

Testing WAR alone - NOT A GOOD THING. WHAT IS THE BASELINE??

 

Testing WAR vs alternative - YES. DO THIS. VERY GOOD. You and the super scouts, and Uncle Ted vs. Fangraphs. Compare all systems.

[Olerud363]

Abyine know if there is a historical site that compared the team WAR expected win totals with the actual results. So if a team based on added up WAR was supposed to win 100 games hiw they actually did.

 

And by the way Key22, my silly rant has nothing to do with you, I think you pose an interesting question. I just can see, that certain people, will start claiming that

 

"Most people don't have any common sense, WAR has been shown to be clearly wrong some of the time and common sense projections are needed for the cases WAR isn't good at.",

[Nafro]

Teams are rarely projected to win 100 games... the reason being that predictions don't predict lucky outliers. Teams that win 100 usually have luck (good health, surprise performances, no surprise negatives, etc.). So for a 100 win team WAR predicts 90 -- then luck ticks it up to 100.

 

The WAR predictions will be off enough that people will start claiming "WAR is a bunch of crap, by god, me and my Uncle Ted, 83 years young, Ted saw every game since 1977, half of them in black and white, we predicted the standing with know-how. Ya can't beat know-how, and that's something the eggheads need to learn"

 

So what is really needed is rigorous testing of multiple prediction systems. Over a series of years fangraphs WAR could be tested against other systems, including "you and Uncle Ted".

 

Neither will be perfect. I'm rambling a bit, but I just want to really emphasize, testing WAR predictions alone is useless and dangerous. The errors will be used as evidence by people that "good old common sense and scout's intuition" beats WAR. That's not true. Ya gotta test both, and see which one makes better predictions.

 

Testing WAR alone - NOT A GOOD THING. WHAT IS THE BASELINE??

 

Testing WAR vs alternative - YES. DO THIS. VERY GOOD. You and the super scouts, and Uncle Ted vs. Fangraphs. Compare all systems.

 

This is what I have said, since joining these boards. Stat scouting is very useful, and has advanced exponentially in the 21st century. That being said there is still always something to be said about someone viewing a performance with their own "baseball eyes". I think an intelligent combination of metrics, and watching the games actually being played is key. Predictions are okay, but I certainly would never rely on them, or even advanced metrics in a vaccum.

[Dick_Pole]

John Rocker was the best

 

Cool, it's opposite day, thanks for the heads' up!

 

*cringe*

 

Dude, how the hell did you ever muster up the courage to get a baseball board shut down with illicit pics of someone without their permission? You are totally the permission-seeking type.

[TBJ12]

Cringe worthy piece by Damien Cox.

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2018/01/26/blue-jays-buying-time-to-sell-tickets.html

[John_Havok]

Cringe worthy piece by Damien Cox

 

Redundant statement.

[jerb]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

No wasting time! #BlueJays GM Ross Atkins says they already have a dollar figure they are comfortable going to with Josh Donaldson...and JD's agent knows that number! #PitchTalks

[jerb]

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

#BlueJays GM Ross Atkins in his opening comments "the probability of Josh Donaldson hitting a HR and 2B when he comes up is just far higher than say...Ryan Goins" #PitchTalks unfiltered

[jerb]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

Atkins "Ryan Borucki and Tom Panone will be in AAA rotation and compete to be next in line for a call up to the #BlueJays and will challenge each other to be better" #PitchTalks

[jerb]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

Ross Atkins is all business tonight at #PitchTalks "Alford should be viewed up there with Vladdy Jr. and Bichette"

[Spanky99]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

Ross Atkins is all business tonight at #PitchTalks "Alford should be viewed up there with Vladdy Jr. and Bichette"

 

Loving these posts, jerb, you da man!

[Captain Adama]

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

#BlueJays GM Ross Atkins in his opening comments "the probability of Josh Donaldson hitting a HR and 2B when he comes up is just far higher than say...Ryan Goins" #PitchTalks unfiltered

 

Atkins casually back handing Goins.

 

I love it.

[Jimcanuck]

Atkins casually back handing Goins.

 

I love it.

 

for some stupid reason i joined a FB blue jays fan club....... reminds me of a thread on whether JD should be extended.... some people said "would rather have goins"

[Captain Adama]

for some stupid reason i joined a FB blue jays fan club....... reminds me of a thread on whether JD should be extended.... some people said "would rather have goins"

 

Seems par the course.

 

Facebook blue jay fans are the worst and I mostly hate them.

[jerb]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

#BlueJays GM Ross Atkins "when you're talking about free agency you're talking about aging players and the trend of overpaying a player's aging curves has come to an end across baseball"

[jerb]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

Q from #PitchTalks audience: If you sign Donaldson long-term, what will you do with Vladdy Jr?

Atkins: That would be a great problem to have! Vladdy could be positioned elsewhere until JD shows signs of needing to be moved off 3B. Perhaps Vladdy moves to LF in that case.

[baubau]

All these great quotes! Ross Atkins is now more dreamy then Kevin Kiermaier.

[baubau]

Loving these posts, jerb, you da man!

 

You could say that he's a man on a ... JERB!

 

 

 

get it spank, jerb = pun for job. Get it? K. good. Night folks!

[G-Snarls]

 

Pitch Talks‏

@PitchTalks

 

Q from #PitchTalks audience: If you sign Donaldson long-term, what will you do with Vladdy Jr?

Atkins: That would be a great problem to have! Vladdy could be positioned elsewhere until JD shows signs of needing to be moved off 3B. Perhaps Vladdy moves to LF in that case.

 

f*** yes

 

One of them ends up at 1B

 

Do it

 

Donaldson should realize he's not going to get more than 5 years next off season

 

Team should use that leverage to extend him now

[AledmysDiaz]

Atkins sure does say the right things, how that lines up with the actions of the administration remains to be seen. I would think it does, but there isn't enough conclusive evidence.

 

A) Ultimately what he is saying is that the service time requirement to free agency has to be reduced.

The practice of keeping players in the minors to control their service time, such as the Cubs and the Rays employ is unfair to the player, as they are using up their peak earning times.

 

What I would like to see is a system, like the NBA, where if the player is extended by their own team, then they have a higher earning power. That way, while service time to Free Agency can be reduced, players have an incentive to reup with their own teams. This would also discourage the practices of the Rays, Marlins, and the recent world series champs. I hate the crash and rebuild mentality. It hurts the sport. If a team doesn't want to be competitive, then they need not participate IMO.

[Terminator]

Atkins sure does say the right things, how that lines up with the actions of the administration remains to be seen. I would think it does, but there isn't enough conclusive evidence.

 

A) Ultimately what he is saying is that the service time requirement to free agency has to be reduced.

The practice of keeping players in the minors to control their service time, such as the Cubs and the Rays employ is unfair to the player, as they are using up their peak earning times.

 

What I would like to see is a system, like the NBA, where if the player is extended by their own team, then they have a higher earning power. That way, while service time to Free Agency can be reduced, players have an incentive to reup with their own teams. This would also discourage the practices of the Rays, Marlins, and the recent world series champs. I hate the crash and rebuild mentality. It hurts the sport. If a team doesn't want to be competitive, then they need not participate IMO.

 

B isn't fair at all. It costs players millions of dollars and forces them to play in lesser leagues that they don't belong in. Service time is a cool concept but there should be some changes. It's hard though, the NBA doesn't debut it's rookies all at different times like MLB does.