April Postmortem: The Cases For and Against a Teardown

[metafour]

Its not really a question of what those players have done, more so a question of whether or not he could have done a better job with what he ultimately got back. That 2015 trade deadline alone saw something like 11 or 12 pitchers traded for what ultimately ended up being only Troy Tulowitzki who is still a member of this team (Dawel Lugo was also shipped for Pennington).

[burlingtonbandit]

I can see teardown winning by a landslide because this forum is reactionary af. This team may be very old, but the team isn't quite the Phillies and Yankees with their albatross contracts. We have Martin who is still very good, Bautista only for a year if he sucks, Tulo and Morales will probably​ not be worth their contracts, but they're not preventing this team from moving forward, and Pearce even if he's done isn't crippling this team any time soon.

 

Sure, if someone comes at you with deals you can't refuse for the superstar players, you do it. However, I believe a full scale rebuild is not the way to go, our reactionary fanbase won't handle that all too well, and you need to have money if you want to retool. Slowly build a sustainable​ foundation of talent, some of which is already here, and it is not necessary to trade even the ballboy to do that.

 

PS: f*** AA, this is all on him

 

How is this on AA? He traded a bunch of pitching prospects who can break at any time. If you don't make those trades the Jays are probably in a full rebuild right now anyway..

[Laika]

Re-tool for 2018 with Donaldson. Plan on rebuilding or whatever after that. Edited May 1, 2017 by Laika

[FrozenRopes]

No comment, yet. That was a fantastic post GD, thanks, mate. Right now, it's stay the course. Come Mid-June, it's much different. Or predominantly different, now.

 

If you're management though, if the overpayment can come now you have to go for it. If Tulo was healthy and someone needed a solid SS to replace an injured player or push them over the top, you've gotta listen. Same on everyone. There is a less than 5% chance this team goes to the post season.

[Spanky99]

If you're management though, if the overpayment can come now you have to go for it. If Tulo was healthy and someone needed a solid SS to replace an injured player or push them over the top, you've gotta listen. Same on everyone. There is a less than 5% chance this team goes to the post season.

 

Like I said... a couple months from now. GM's always talk, 24/7 and year round.

[glory]

How do you retool if the 2017 team isn't good? Hope for better health from 30-35 year old's, sign two starting pitchers as good as or better than Estrada and Liriano, and still have no help from the minors unless Alford is for real and can cover one of the OF spots next year?

 

A retool would make sense if everyone was injured/underachieving and would regress for the better next year, but it doesn't look like that at all.

[Laika]

A retool would make sense if everyone was injured/underachieving

 

That's basically what is happening right now. Toronto has a bunch of players who are hurt and/or off to awful starts, that should reasonably be expected to play better baseball the rest of this year and next.

 

Steamer's rest of season projection for Toronto has them as winning the 7th most games in MLB between now and the end of 2017. The team is not bad.

 

Just re-sign Estrada, replace a few guys in free agency or even by trade at the 2017 deadline, supplement the MLB depth with Tellez, McGuire, Alford, Greene, DSJ, Lourdes, etc. and try again next year.

[GD]

Close vote so far. Given that BTS voted for teardown, I'd say stay the course is the way to go.

[tercet]

short-term in-between re-tool like the red sox did a few times...

We're not bad enough to Astros/Braves it for a 4-5 years tank

[Bobthe4th]

That's basically what is happening right now. Toronto has a bunch of players who are hurt and/or off to awful starts, that should reasonably be expected to play better baseball the rest of this year and next.

 

Steamer's rest of season projection for Toronto has them as winning the 7th most games in MLB between now and the end of 2017. The team is not bad.

 

Just re-sign Estrada, replace a few guys in free agency or even by trade at the 2017 deadline, supplement the MLB depth with Tellez, McGuire, Alford, Greene, DSJ, Lourdes, etc. and try again next year.

 

The things that have turned this season so far from a slow start to a historically bad one are the Donaldson injury, and the awful start from Travis & Pearce.

 

JD is the team MVP. Pearce was meant to quickly win an everyday role and result in one of Smoak or Carrera getting released. Travis was mean to hit for average and therefore give rbi opportunities for the sluggers.

 

All the other factors (Injuries, Bautista, slow first few weeks from Martin, Osuna & Grilli issues, Salty) would likely still have resulted in a slow start but we'd probably be around .500 if JD, Travis and Pearce (1/3 of the lineup) had provided what was expected.

[Bobthe4th]

The things that have turned this season so far from a slow start to a historically bad one are the Donaldson injury, and the awful start from Travis & Pearce.

 

JD is the team MVP. Pearce was meant to quickly win an everyday role and result in one of Smoak or Carrera getting released. Travis was mean to hit for average and therefore give rbi opportunities for the sluggers.

 

All the other factors (Injuries, Bautista, slow first few weeks from Martin, Osuna & Grilli issues, Salty) would likely still have resulted in a slow start but we'd probably be around .500 if JD, Travis and Pearce (1/3 of the lineup) had provided what was expected.

 

In a weird way that's kind of encouraging. I don't believe that we're as bad as our record and therefore a complete rebuild isn't inevitable.

[o2cui2i]

I'd be fine with the re-tool option that isn't on the list. I don't think they should blow it up. they have some really good pieces they can easily build around.

[KingKat]

Hockey and basketball aren't played in the summer, so even if the Jays fade into the background for a few years it wouldn't be that hard to regain momentum if they win. It really is that simple. If they win.

 

I agree that momentum doesn't matter. The big thing is that Rogers will want to keep the ratings healthy. If you give Rogers the choice between a full tear down and a World Series in five years and five years of competitive teams that fall just short but keeps the ratings high into September, they will choose the later every time. Sure that's a false dichotomy but it does show that Rogers's priorities are different than those of another owner. They care about the TV ratings in a way that other owners don't. Another team might look at when the TV rights are up and only really care about where the team is in the ratings when it comes time to negotiate as opposed to year to year. Rogers will fund a payroll just to keep the team robust enough for the tv ratings and because of that they won't see the same economy in a rebuild that other teams would. The tradeoff of a rebuild is that the product may be bad but you save money on payroll which should balance out any loss of revenue in attendance but for Rogers a rebuild is a double whammy. They not only lose at the gate but they also see their media content lose value. I just don't see them having any appetite for it and that's not necessarily a bad thing. One can look at the Cubs' perfect storm of a rebuild and be envious or that but their rebuild made it look a lot easier than it actually is. A rebuild wouldn't necessarily go that smoothly and year to year retooling can work quite well.

Edited May 1, 2017 by KingKat

[SAAviour]

I feel neither is the correct answer, but staying the course is slightly worse so tear this mother down.

[burlingtonbandit]

I agree that momentum doesn't matter. The big thing is that Rogers will want to keep the ratings healthy. If you give Rogers the choice between a full tear down and a World Series in five years and five years of competitive teams that fall just short but keeps the ratings high into September, they will choose the later every time. Sure that's a false dichotomy but it does show that Rogers's priorities are different than those of another owner. They care about the TV ratings in a way that other owners don't. Another team might look at when the TV rights are up and only really care about where the team is in the ratings when it comes time to negotiate as opposed to year to year. Rogers will fund a payroll just to keep the team robust enough for the tv ratings and because of that they won't see the same economy in a rebuild that other teams would. The tradeoff of a rebuild is that the product may be bad but you save money on payroll which should balance out any loss of revenue in attendance but for Rogers a rebuild is a double whammy. They not only lose at the gate but they also see their media content lose value. I just don't see them having any appetite for it and that's not necessarily a bad thing. One can look at the Cubs' perfect storm of a rebuild and be envious or that but their rebuild made it look a lot easier than it actually is. A rebuild wouldn't necessarily go that smoothly and year to year retooling can work quite well.

 

The problem is you aren't getting a competitive team for 5 years. If Donaldson leaves you are a high 70s low 80 win team which is what they had for 20 years. No one wants to be stuck in the middle.

 

Really depends on what Rogers is willing to spend. They can be a competitive team but they're going to need to spend like $180 Million.

[Dick_Pole]

Close vote so far. Given that BTS voted for teardown, I'd say stay the course is the way to go.

 

I am also happy that I have voted opposite Jim.

 

This question is much better asked two months from now. There is little to no benefit in trading Donaldson, Happ et al. now versus July. If the Jays still suck or turn it around by then the FO will have much more information to choose their direction. Same thing with every other team. A contender that is one step away that needs an extra starter or a big bat that can play a premium defensive position will pay just as much in July as now. Particularly if there's a bidding war for such players.

[Dick_Pole]

Even though I side with stay the course, some of the reasons in that article were pretty lame. Momentum is overrated and the fact that there are two winter time teams which at most will play into June in a city with a very diverse range of opinions and tastes in its population means nothing. Toronto is big enough to handle three successful sports franchises of the four major leagues.

[burlingtonbandit]

Even though I side with stay the course, some of the reasons in that article were pretty lame. Momentum is overrated and the fact that there are two winter time teams which at most will play into June in a city with a very diverse range of opinions and tastes in its population means nothing. Toronto is big enough to handle three successful sports franchises of the four major leagues.

 

Exactly it really only effects a couple of months. I mean if the Leafs/Raptors made the finals then no one would care about the Jays until June but there's nothing else in the summer time. Even if the Jays are bad lots of people will still go to games in July/August.

[KingKat]

If Donaldson leaves you are a high 70s low 80 win team which is what they had for 20 years. No one wants to be stuck in the middle.

 

 

It's not about where you're stuck. It's about what your starting point is. If you give Roger the option of having that 70s low 80s win team and trying to build off of that, and say maybe spending it up to a low to mid 80s team that might catch lightning in a bottle and tread water for a few years until a franchise player falls into their lap (potentially Vlad for instance) they are going to opt for that over a rebuild ten times out of ten.

Edited May 1, 2017 by KingKat

[Dick_Pole]

Re-tool for 2018 with Donaldson. Plan on rebuilding or whatever after that.

 

What exactly do you expect to re-tool in a scenario that involves keeping Donaldson?

 

I see Happ, Estrada and Liriano as the only players that make sense to trade in this situation that would get anything notable in return and I wouldn't expect the return to be that much.

 

Any re-tool IMO includes the trade of Donaldson. Total tear down means trading him, and doing as much of this as possible: trading all five starting pitchers, Osuna, Pillar, maybe even Travis and dump Tulo and Martin hoping someone else picks up the tab.

[Laika]

What exactly do you expect to re-tool in a scenario that involves keeping Donaldson?

 

Not much. The roster doesn't need a complete overhaul. I think they should basically re-roll in 2018 with a similar core.

They've been horribly unlucky this year. That might be a reason to give up on 2017 early but it shouldn't be a reason to give up on 2018 as well.

 

At the deadline this year a few players like Liriano, Estrada, Bautista, Smith, Grilli could have some value and could return pieces that will help next year.

 

One interesting way to re-tool for 2018 would be to stretch Biagini out in the 2nd half.

 

The 2018 team would have much better depth when you consider the trajectory of some of the prospects in the system. It would be the same team as this year, but with a shot of youth.

 

- Stretch out Biagini

- Sign back Estrada or get some other FA.

- SRF, Greene, and Harris are all in AA this year and for 2018 will be viable depth options (AAA won't be a wasteland of forgotten veterans). Big difference from this year. Greene and SRF are pen options too given their stuff.

- Alford, Pompey, Tellez, Gurriel could supplement the MLB roster. Depth players like McGuire, Ramirez, DSJ, Urena will be more seasoned.

- Bullpen: Who really cares, but it's notable that Tim Mayza could/should be an impact RP.

 

If it doesn't work, just trade Donaldson next deadline

[G-Snarls]

No one tears down in April or May

[Daniel Labude]

What exactly do you expect to re-tool in a scenario that involves keeping Donaldson?

 

I see Happ, Estrada and Liriano as the only players that make sense to trade in this situation that would get anything notable in return and I wouldn't expect the return to be that much.

 

Any re-tool IMO includes the trade of Donaldson. Total tear down means trading him, and doing as much of this as possible: trading all five starting pitchers, Osuna, Pillar, maybe even Travis and dump Tulo and Martin hoping someone else picks up the tab.

 

That's not a tear down...that's going nuclear!

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Rogers is content with being a .500 team that draws 25K in the stands and a few hundred thousand on TV. If 50K in the stands each night over the last two years and millions watching on TV wasn't enough to motivate them to increase the payroll dramatically, nothing will. They will never be a top 5 payroll team that "goes for it", nor will they be a complete tear down team that wins 60- 65 games. Rogers always plays it safe. They are in it to sell commercials, not win the world series.

 

Shapiro will likely sell off a couple vets/impending FAs, but I doubt you see a dramatic sell off. I have this sick feeling that they will be a 70-80 win team for the next few years.

[keggy]

The Red Sox won the World Series with an overachieving veteran team in 2013, and were one of the worst teams in baseball in 2014. They dumped pending free agents like Lester, Andrew Miller, etc. and gave playing time to future assets like Jackie Bradley (who was considered garbage at the time)--but didn't touch the major league core. They won the division 2 years later and are still favourites to win the division this year. The Yankees made the playoffs in 2015, sold off assets in 2016 and are a respectable team again.

 

Once you flip the switch on an cheap controllable asset like Donaldson and Stroman, there's no turning back for many years.

[Terminator]

Not much. The roster doesn't need a complete overhaul. I think they should basically re-roll in 2018 with a similar core.

They've been horribly unlucky this year. That might be a reason to give up on 2017 early but it shouldn't be a reason to give up on 2018 as well.

 

At the deadline this year a few players like Liriano, Estrada, Bautista, Smith, Grilli could have some value and could return pieces that will help next year.

 

One interesting way to re-tool for 2018 would be to stretch Biagini out in the 2nd half.

 

The 2018 team would have much better depth when you consider the trajectory of some of the prospects in the system. It would be the same team as this year, but with a shot of youth.

 

- Stretch out Biagini

- Sign back Estrada or get some other FA.

- SRF, Greene, and Harris are all in AA this year and for 2018 will be viable depth options (AAA won't be a wasteland of forgotten veterans). Big difference from this year. Greene and SRF are pen options too given their stuff.

- Alford, Pompey, Tellez, Gurriel could supplement the MLB roster. Depth players like McGuire, Ramirez, DSJ, Urena will be more seasoned.

- Bullpen: Who really cares, but it's notable that Tim Mayza could/should be an impact RP.

 

If it doesn't work, just trade Donaldson next deadline

 

I like this plan. I'd be interested to see what we could get for Donaldson though. If it's a massive haul I'd consider it. If it's a Roy Halladay type haul then forget it.

[burlingtonbandit]

I like this plan. I'd be interested to see what we could get for Donaldson though. If it's a massive haul I'd consider it. If it's a Roy Halladay type haul then forget it.

 

What could they realistically get though? Red Sox could trade Devers and a couple other prospects, is that enough? You're going to have Frazier and Moustakas on the market as well and the number of competing teams with a need for 3rd base is very small.

 

Might make more sense to hold on to him.

[Dick_Pole]

That's not a tear down...that's going nuclear!

 

50 win thread...remember? That's the only way the Jays get it that low.

 

I guess we need some consistent board definitions on what re-tool versus tear down versus something in between means.

[Jonn]

I would rather wait till June to make this decision. If we can have a good May and get reasonably close to .500. Will be in pretty good shape with Donaldson and Tulo coming back.

 

I don't have a problem retooling for 2018. But if 2017 continues to be a train wreck you have to explore all possibilities.

[metafour]

The Red Sox won the World Series with an overachieving veteran team in 2013, and were one of the worst teams in baseball in 2014. They dumped pending free agents like Lester, Andrew Miller, etc. and gave playing time to future assets like Jackie Bradley (who was considered garbage at the time)--but didn't touch the major league core. They won the division 2 years later and are still favourites to win the division this year. The Yankees made the playoffs in 2015, sold off assets in 2016 and are a respectable team again.

 

Once you flip the switch on an cheap controllable asset like Donaldson and Stroman, there's no turning back for many years.

 

The Red Sox had a plethora of elite prospects that were all ready to come up and take the spots of their old veterans, which is why they were able to rebound so quickly. We have Alford, Gurriel (who knows what his upside is), and what? Maybe Tellez who is struggling? On the pitching side you don't have much: SRF struggling, Greene is the ultimate question mark, and...Jon Harris who looks like a backend starter?

 

Also, Donaldson is neither cheap nor controllable. We have him for one more year in which he will be paid $20 mill plus.