Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[TheHurl]

Was this before getting Quintana or are they still looking to add?

 

No Lackey, No Arrieta next year. They want to add another pitcher who is controllable beyond this year.

[Angrioter]

Was this before getting Quintana or are they still looking to add?

 

Happ and Schwarber is the se thing. Cubs want to trade Kyle for a controllable SP. Lackey and Arrieta FA 2018, and Hammel is nothing

[baubau]

Happ and Schwarber is the se thing. Cubs want to trade Kyle for a controllable SP. Lackey and Arrieta FA 2018, and Hammel is nothing

 

I don't understand people's love for Kyle. What am I missing?

[P2F]

I don't understand people's love for Kyle. What am I missing?

 

Short answer: because he has an expected wOBA of .345 this season, and he has time and room to grow and improve on that.

[burlingtonbandit]

Thing about Schwarber is if he can't play C he needs to be a >120wRC+ bat to have decent value. Basically like a younger Steve Pearce in a way. If the Jays had an opening at 1B or DH I think I'd like him more.

[John_Havok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-the-blue-jays/

[HERPDERP]

Not a fan of Schwarbs. He's gonna bust like Soler.

[Daniel Labude]

Happ for Happ is about the only trade that makes since with the Cubs

[Angrioter]

Happ for Happ is about the only trade that makes since with the Cubs

 

I don't think so. Our Happ is too old

[John_Havok]

Chris Rowley moved up to Buffalo recently. Very intriguing story

[Krylian]

It's a s***** time to be a hardcore Jays fan.

 

People who are really into the team see the writing on the wall. This team is old...there isn't a slew of prospects sitting in AA/AAA knocking on the door. The talent is lower down. The old pieces should be moved out and re-tooling/re-building should be happening. HOWEVER...the fairweather fans are keeping that from happening. Attendance numbers are seducing Rogers and they don't want to lose that revenue...so they're going to keep the charade going as long as people continue to pay to show up. They know that the hardcore fans aren't going anywhere...so there's very little risk of losing us. It's like taking your spouse for granted...assuming they'll always be there.

 

I feel like we're stuck in no-man's land...and I fear that this won't change until ownerships hand is forced. But the problem is, we've been down this road before...when the crowd left in the mid-90's...how long did it take to get them back? Far too long.

[Bobthe4th]

It's a s***** time to be a hardcore Jays fan.

 

People who are really into the team see the writing on the wall. This team is old...there isn't a slew of prospects sitting in AA/AAA knocking on the door. The talent is lower down. The old pieces should be moved out and re-tooling/re-building should be happening. HOWEVER...the fairweather fans are keeping that from happening. Attendance numbers are seducing Rogers and they don't want to lose that revenue...so they're going to keep the charade going as long as people continue to pay to show up. They know that the hardcore fans aren't going anywhere...so there's very little risk of losing us. It's like taking your spouse for granted...assuming they'll always be there.

 

I feel like we're stuck in no-man's land...and I fear that this won't change until ownerships hand is forced. But the problem is, we've been down this road before...when the crowd left in the mid-90's...how long did it take to get them back? Far too long.

 

I hope you're not suggesting that you're only a "hardcore" Jays fan if you support a full scale rebuild (FWIW I don't think you are)!

 

Most people can see the playoffs are unlikely this year, but having a more optimistic view for 2018 doesn't make you a casual.

 

I think we should we trading shorter term contracts like Happ and one of Smoak and Pearce, I also think if we did that that attendances wouldn't suffer much in the short term. It'd be different if we traded players like Stroman, Sanchez, and maybe even Donaldson. What happens with JD in the summer is a very big decision, but the only way I see it really annoying the less knowledgeable fans would be if he's traded for non elite prospects that are years away.

[Krylian]

I hope you're not suggesting that you're only a "hardcore" Jays fan if you support a full scale rebuild (FWIW I don't think you are)!

 

Most people can see the playoffs are unlikely this year, but having a more optimistic view for 2018 doesn't make you a casual.

 

I think we should we trading shorter term contracts like Happ and one of Smoak and Pearce, I also think if we did that that attendances wouldn't suffer much in the short term. It'd be different if we traded players like Stroman, Sanchez, and maybe even Donaldson. What happens with JD in the summer is a very big decision, but the only way I see it really annoying the less knowledgeable fans would be if he's traded for non elite prospects that are years away.

 

I'm not saying that...but I don't think any hardcore fan thinks that status quo is the way to go. The level of movement or change can be debated but I'm pretty sure we can all agree that some level of change is required. And I worry that we're not going to see that change come to fruition.

[Bobthe4th]

I'm not saying that...but I don't think any hardcore fan thinks that status quo is the way to go. The level of movement or change can be debated but I'm pretty sure we can all agree that some level of change is required. And I worry that we're not going to see that change come to fruition.

 

Yeah that's fair.

 

Despite the rumours, I'd be surprised if the front office turns down a decent offer for someone like Happ or Pearce. I don't think they'd trade either for whatever they can get though. For many reasons (the fanbase's impact on Rogers being one of them) I'd also be surprised if they went full rebuild in the summer.

 

I've no doubt they're looking at deals where they take on salary for controllable players, and/or trading someone like Pompey in a Hutchison type deal too.

[Krylian]

Dalton Pompey is the leper of this organization.

[Brownie19]

Do you guys think Shatkins has full autonomy to do as they see fit with the team? Or do we think Rogers is tampering with their ability to do their jobs?

[Krylian]

Do you guys think Shatkins has full autonomy to do as they see fit with the team? Or do we think Rogers is tampering with their ability to do their jobs?

 

I don't think anyone has "full" autonomy.

 

I think Rogers is more like, 'do whatever you want...but if the revenue goes down, payroll goes down. Keep the butts in the seats.'

[burlingtonbandit]

Do you guys think Shatkins has full autonomy to do as they see fit with the team? Or do we think Rogers is tampering with their ability to do their jobs?

 

I think he has full autonomy but he's also the President so he likely understands how much the team's success affects the bottom line.

[jaysblue]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-the-blue-jays/

 

Yeah I saw this article yesterday. They still have a chance for a wildcard spot, though need to pick it up. They need an upgrade at 2B, so one of Gordon, Walker, Lowrie, etc. would be nice fits and wouldn't break the bank. An upgrade in left field would be a plus, though I'm guessing they will roll with Pearce and Carrera.

 

Sanchez needs to stay healthy the rest of the way obviously, so hopefully they can get 12-14 starts out of him. Stroman is rock solid. Happ has been pitching better as of late. Big questions remain with Liriano and Estrada. You can't really trade those guys right now since you won't get much of a return so it's best to probably just keep them and hope one or both of them turn it around. Bullpen is actually fine, especially when they get Smith back and Biagini regains his form. Don't really need to add any BP pieces at the deadline.

 

An upgrade at 2B, a healthy Sanchez, and with some struggling players regaining their form, Blue Jays might be able to go on a run and get back into the thick of things. Won't be easy, though it's possible.

[Slade]

Do you guys think Shatkins has full autonomy to do as they see fit with the team? Or do we think Rogers is tampering with their ability to do their jobs?

 

Personnel wise I'm sure they do, but they were clearly told to keep the team competitive.

[glory]

Do you guys think Shatkins has full autonomy to do as they see fit with the team? Or do we think Rogers is tampering with their ability to do their jobs?

 

A little bit of both, probably. Shapiro can likely do what he wants within the parameters that Rogers gives him, but the company itself wants to make money, so anything that negatively impacts the bottom line might need to be green lighted first. Like if Shapiro wanted to trade Sanchez for something, then ownership won't care. But if he wanted to trade Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, etc, and completely wipe out the roster to rebuild, then he would need some type of thumbs up from ownership since that's likely to impact the bottom line short-term.

 

But yeah, I think Rogers prefers a team that can sell hope every year, even if it leads no where. I was hoping Shapiro could change that, but maybe he can't.

[Terminator]

It's a s***** time to be a hardcore Jays fan.

 

People who are really into the team see the writing on the wall. This team is old...there isn't a slew of prospects sitting in AA/AAA knocking on the door. The talent is lower down. The old pieces should be moved out and re-tooling/re-building should be happening. HOWEVER...the fairweather fans are keeping that from happening. Attendance numbers are seducing Rogers and they don't want to lose that revenue...so they're going to keep the charade going as long as people continue to pay to show up. They know that the hardcore fans aren't going anywhere...so there's very little risk of losing us. It's like taking your spouse for granted...assuming they'll always be there.

 

I feel like we're stuck in no-man's land...and I fear that this won't change until ownerships hand is forced. But the problem is, we've been down this road before...when the crowd left in the mid-90's...how long did it take to get them back? Far too long.

 

Unless you tear the whole thing down and start trading Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna for prospects there isn't any guarantee that we net anything worth that much to us in a future rebuild. Donaldson is obviously the exception but now isn't really the time to move him anyway. He's bound to improve at the plate so trading him in the offseason would probably be wiser. Happ and Smoak could get us a small return but otherwise there is nothing to really do. The impending FA's aren't worth much at all. So we could go through the painful exercise of a total 4-5 year Astros style rebuild where Stroman and Sanchez are traded and we are the worst team in the league for a few years or we can continue to try and compete for the Wild Card this year and next.

[Krylian]

Unless you tear the whole thing down and start trading Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna for prospects there isn't any guarantee that we net anything worth that much to us in a future rebuild. Donaldson is obviously the exception but now isn't really the time to move him anyway. He's bound to improve at the plate so trading him in the offseason would probably be wiser. Happ and Smoak could get us a small return but otherwise there is nothing to really do. The impending FA's aren't worth much at all. So we could go through the painful exercise of a total 4-5 year Astros style rebuild where Stroman and Sanchez are traded and we are the worst team in the league for a few years or we can continue to try and compete for the Wild Card this year and next.

 

I like the Cubs and Astros model. Draft lots of high end talent...sign talented IFA's...and develop your own core. Then augment that with more expensive talent when you're close. That's what I thought AA was going to do but it didn't quite work out that way.

[sdyment]

This whole rebuild thing keeps pulling me in different directions, but as a 44 year leafs fan (ugh), if done right, a rebuild doesn't have to be a negative thing. If (and a big if) they sold JD, Osuna, Stroman, and the expiring contracts, you would hopefully be looking at multiple blue chip, top of the line prospect/3-6 talents suddenly added to the MLB/AAA teams. You would have the "faces" of Tulo, Travis, Alford, Sanchez to appease the casuals along with any new talent. And the best bit is, that just down the Qew you would have the blue chippers getting primed for the big club. To use the leafs reference again, I would bet that the Marlies popularity is at an all time high right now with the harcores and even some casual fans, because of proximity and talent.

 

And you still have Vladdy and Bo coming!

 

I guess, in a perfect scenario, the MLB team would suffer limited down time before they were competitive again. But then again, you could do a quick turnaround with some luck and the current roster...

[mtljaysfan]

It will be interesting to see what Shatkins do at the trade deadline.

 

They may try not to selloff just keep the hope/illusion that we're still in the wildcard race. Understandable from a revenue/attendance POV.

 

But baseball wise, it would take a miracle for us to get even the second wildcard.

 

We went 89-73 last year to get to wildcard.

We need to go 46-24 to reach 89, playing a 0.657 pct ball.

 

Let's say the second wildcard is more wild open this year, we only need a 85-79 record.

We still need to go 42-28. That's 0.600 winning pct.

 

So far this season, only 3 teams have played better than 0.600 ball: the Dodgers, Astros and the Nationals.

[Dick_Pole]

It's a s***** time to be a hardcore Jays fan.

 

People who are really into the team see the writing on the wall. This team is old...there isn't a slew of prospects sitting in AA/AAA knocking on the door. The talent is lower down. The old pieces should be moved out and re-tooling/re-building should be happening. HOWEVER...the fairweather fans are keeping that from happening. Attendance numbers are seducing Rogers and they don't want to lose that revenue...so they're going to keep the charade going as long as people continue to pay to show up. They know that the hardcore fans aren't going anywhere...so there's very little risk of losing us. It's like taking your spouse for granted...assuming they'll always be there.

 

I feel like we're stuck in no-man's land...and I fear that this won't change until ownerships hand is forced. But the problem is, we've been down this road before...when the crowd left in the mid-90's...how long did it take to get them back? Far too long.

 

How has this team been down this road before? Meaning when has a refusal to sell off veterans resulted in many years of mediocrity?

 

Ricciardi did a purge in the early 2000's. It failed because he failed to draft or develop any star players. The only time this team has really "gone for it" was 2013 and 2015. 1997 as well but I already voiced my opinion on that.

 

If you trust that this new FO regime is competent, then you'll trust that they'll be able to make the Blue Jays competitive, regardless of the situation.

[Dick_Pole]

I think it's a great time to be a Blue Jays fan....or any other fan of an MLB team. Back in the late 90's it was a foregone conclusion that the Yankees were taking top spot in the A.L. East. Now we all have hope that a playoff team could be had with as little as 85 wins in a year. Then comes the one game, but at least it's an exciting one game.

[Krylian]

How has this team been down this road before? Meaning when has a refusal to sell off veterans resulted in many years of mediocrity?

 

Ricciardi did a purge in the early 2000's. It failed because he failed to draft or develop any star players. The only time this team has really "gone for it" was 2013 and 2015. 1997 as well but I already voiced my opinion on that.

 

If you trust that this new FO regime is competent, then you'll trust that they'll be able to make the Blue Jays competitive, regardless of the situation.

 

Going down this road as in, a significant dip in performance after a run of success (mind you this is only 2 seasons)...the crowd left...and I believe the crowd will leave again.

 

I don't really trust this regime yet. I'm still waiting for them to win me over. Maybe that's why I'm not as willing to embrace this kind of ambiguous plan. To me it feels like they're half in, half out.

[Brownie19]

I don't think anyone has "full" autonomy.

 

I think Rogers is more like, 'do whatever you want...but if the revenue goes down, payroll goes down. Keep the butts in the seats.'

 

So no then.

 

I mean fine...payroll goes down during a rebuild? No s*** Sherlock. Retool/rebuild, sell off the vets, drop the payroll (to offset the lost revenue), build a sustainable winner. I don't understand why this isn't the obvious answer. Roger's doesn't lose money and the FO gets to build their own team, that hopefully is built for long term success.

 

You could argue they are concerned the fans won't return, but recent data suggest that isn't true. The only other factor I see is the Jays help solidify and sell the Rogers brand? Losing would hurt the corporate brand? I'd love to know.

[burlingtonbandit]

I like the Cubs and Astros model. Draft lots of high end talent...sign talented IFA's...and develop your own core. Then augment that with more expensive talent when you're close. That's what I thought AA was going to do but it didn't quite work out that way.

 

Thing is even with all of that talent things can go wrong like the Astros last year not making it, the Cubs this year being bad. So its not like they you will be in guaranteed contention year after year even if you get a bunch of star talent.

 

The Braves did a rebuild and they still don't look too good.