Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[dineke]

I expect the Jays FO to attempt to remain competitive while replenishing their farm systems through some deals, the draft, and international free agents, but I do not see a complete rebuild any time soon unless you are playing The Show. We shall see though, I am trying to remain positive for 2017 that the team still has one last run left in the tank.

 

Yeah maybe they'll remain competitive by trading Bo and Vladdy. Or maybe they'll become the mid 2000 yankees in FA? To keep this sinking ship competitive will need a miracle.

[TheHurl]

Fangraphs is launching their trade value top 50 this week. Stroman just came in at 47. Osuna, Sanchez and Vlad Jr. in the Honourable Mentions

[burlingtonbandit]

Just curious. For everyone that advocates for a full tear down and rebuild will everyone still go to the park and enjoy going back to 15K a night and enjoy multiple long losing seasons? Also, it is not guaranteed that this rebuild will be successful and/or take longer. People look at the Cubs and the Astros, but for the Cubs everything went right for them, an owner with deep pockets w/o a fear to spend money, Theo E. became available, player development appear to have been successful, and then Joe Maddon became available. For Astros, it was losing season after losing season.

 

I think people don't want to see the Jays go into the year with an 84 win team next year while the Yankees and Red Sox go in with 90+Win teams and the Jays having to trade guys that they could have gotten more value for now.

[Omar]

Deep down I am sure Shapiro would rather sell now and rebuild for 2020. Rogers I'm sure said do what you want except if attendance drops so does the payroll; hence he will take the incremental approach and replace/trade pieces slowly. That's okay too.

[metafour]

Anyone watch Eddie Murphy's Delirious? I picture the Jays demise similar to how Murphy describes his aunt falling down the stairs...clutching and grabbing the pickets and bannister...making a 3 second fall take 8 minutes. I see the Jays sitting in no man's land for a while. The Farm System has some pieces, but not enough...and not enough that's really close. They also won't blow their brains out like the Yankees or Dodgers did with the IFA market. People say the Yankees and Dodgers have a great system...well, that's a big reason why. They had a shot to do it in the Vladdy year but they just went a little about the cap and got their pee pee slapped for one year...rather than signing everything that moved and actually commit to a raping of the IFA cap like many other organizations with better systems have done.

 

The Yankees' quick turnaround has everything to do with the shrewd acquisitions of guys like Castro, Hicks, and Gregorius for virtually nothing and seeing them blossom in New York; not "blowing their brains out" in the IFA market which has largely produced nothing significant for them yet.

 

You keep bringing up the failure of not going "all in" in the 2015 IFA market without considering that the Cubs spent $15.53 million that year and could do so because they were in the penalty the previous year and thus had the whole year to reach agreements for the 2015 class. The Dodgers also spent $7.88 mill that year (this is looking at just the 16-year old kids, not Cuban signees). The point is, there are other teams signing these players as well, so its not as simple as deciding to "blow your brains out" and then everyone signs with you. I mean, we could have easily signed a bunch of $300-500K kids for $1+ mill and made it look like we were getting sweet talent, but spending a ton of money and actually signing the best players are two completely different things. If you look at that class, the top ~8 or 9 guys all signed with different teams, and while the Cubs went crazy, they didn't land ANY of the Top 3-5 elite guys. Why didn't they sign Vlad Jr. if they were going all in? Probably because he had a deal with us for maybe 1-2 years prior.

[Jimcanuck]

Deep down I am sure Shapiro would rather sell now and rebuild for 2020. Rogers I'm sure said do what you want except if attendance drops so does the payroll; hence he will take the incremental approach and replace/trade pieces slowly. That's okay too.

 

Payroll dropping is fine with me. It fits with how a WS series champ is built. Get the controllable pieces in place that bring the team to 85-90 wins, then with the higher payroll from increased attendance, buy some free agents to get to the 90-95 or 100 win threshold.

[glory]

Deep down I am sure Shapiro would rather sell now and rebuild for 2020. Rogers I'm sure said do what you want except if attendance drops so does the payroll; hence he will take the incremental approach and replace/trade pieces slowly. That's okay too.

 

I don't even think Rogers said 'do what you want'. They may have told him flat out to be keep the disguise of being competitive so revenue doesn't plummet and Shapiro is just trying to make it work. The Jays are probably rolling in dough because of the last two playoff runs. Ownership isn't going to be quick to give that up. A small dip in attendance with a 80 win team is probably more desirable to Rogers than a huge dip that usually comes with rebuilding.

 

Shapiro could have rebuilt when he first took over prior to the 2nd half playoff run. The moment that happened, no more rebuilding.

[KingKat]

It's a really tricky situation because if the fan base perceives that the team is waiving the white flag, that's going to drive down ticket sales. As Hurl pointed out that perception is at least as important as the actual W-L record when it comes to impacting revenue. So while a retooling that still has the franchise fielding competitive teams seems like an ideal compromise between the team's need to get younger and what Rogers wants, it's not necessarily going to work out that way. Shapiro could make a perfect Donaldson trade, one that includes a huge return with great future assetts and some controllable pieces that the team can use right away to field a decent team now and the average fan wouldn't care. They would see it as a personnal affront and the Rogers bottom line will feel that.

 

That being said, the team doesn't have much choice but to make some unpopular decisions at some point. Despite some signs of life lately, the overall picture shows a team that is in a downturn. What Rogers will want if for the team to get back on the upswing as quickly as possible.

[Brownie19]

It's a really tricky situation because if the fan base perceives that the team is waiving the white flag, that's going to drive down ticket sales. As Hurl pointed out that perception is at least as important as the actual W-L record when it comes to impacting revenue. So while a retooling that still has the franchise fielding competitive teams seems like an ideal compromise between the team's need to get younger and what Rogers wants, it's not necessarily going to work out that way. Shapiro could make a perfect Donaldson trade, one that includes a huge return with great future assetts and some controllable pieces that the team can use right away to field a decent team now and the average fan wouldn't care. They would see it as a personnal affront and the Rogers bottom line will feel that.

 

That being said, the team doesn't have much choice but to make some unpopular decisions at some point. Despite some signs of life lately, the overall picture shows a team that is in a downturn. What Rogers will want if for the team to get back on the upswing as quickly as possible.

 

Fans are dumb if they are going to the dome because they think the 2017 Jays are a playoff team. It is what it is right now - you go to the game because you like watching baseball. Sometimes they'll win, sometimes they'll lose - but it doesn't really matter because overall, they aren't going anywhere. The same thing can be said if they rebuild....unfortunately, fans are dumb.

[leaffie]

The Jays have been in existence for 40 years, and were pretty lousy for a lot of those years. There is a core group of older fans that have been supporting this team no matter what. They are knowledgeable baseball fans that Rogers has always been able to count on. What the Jays will lose if they don't do this right, is the young new fan that have flocked to the parks everywhere. The older fans and if you saw any of the games in Seattle are in their 60's and up now. They are reaching the stage where health etc. become a factor. This core group is getting smaller. So if the new fan is not able to find something to hold their interest, this team is in big trouble.

 

It is fine to think they will come back, but if the core group is gone in the next five years, there is no core of faithful young fans to rely on. The Jays have not been good long enough to capture their interest. Plus, each family has so much money to spend on entertainment. Will they spend it on lousy baseball, or will they go to a hockey game or a raptor game?

 

Any baseball fan can look at this team and know that a rebuild is coming soon. But how they market this team will be the biggest challenge for Shapiro.

[Bobthe4th]

The Jays have been in existence for 40 years, and were pretty lousy for a lot of those years. There is a core group of older fans that have been supporting this team no matter what. They are knowledgeable baseball fans that Rogers has always been able to count on. What the Jays will lose if they don't do this right, is the young new fan that have flocked to the parks everywhere. The older fans and if you saw any of the games in Seattle are in their 60's and up now. They are reaching the stage where health etc. become a factor. This core group is getting smaller. So if the new fan is not able to find something to hold their interest, this team is in big trouble.

 

It is fine to think they will come back, but if the core group is gone in the next five years, there is no core of faithful young fans to rely on. The Jays have not been good long enough to capture their interest. Plus, each family has so much money to spend on entertainment. Will they spend it on lousy baseball, or will they go to a hockey game or a raptor game?

 

Any baseball fan can look at this team and know that a rebuild is coming soon. But how they market this team will be the biggest challenge for Shapiro.

 

Fans will always come back to watch a winning team in Toronto. Attendance would collapse during a rebuild, and there might be a delay in increases if we suck for years, but people will still want to watch top quality sport in the future.

[burlingtonbandit]

Its not even about attendance.. its the TV ratings that are the biggest impact. Those depend on how the team is performing. And I believe after next year the contract is up so they may want to have a competitive year next year to try to get as much $ locked in on the next contract before taking a step back.

 

As well if they do a multi hundred Million dollar renovation on RC in the next 2 years they will get people wanting to go see the park because of that.

[Brownie19]

Its not even about attendance.. its the TV ratings that are the biggest impact. Those depend on how the team is performing. And I believe after next year the contract is up so they may want to have a competitive year next year to try to get as much $ locked in on the next contract before taking a step back.

 

As well if they do a multi hundred Million dollar renovation on RC in the next 2 years they will get people wanting to go see the park because of that.

 

I'll certainly be looking to open my wallet to see the new paint job!

[burlingtonbandit]

I'll certainly be looking to open my wallet to see the new paint job!

 

I'll certainly pay a little more to have padded seats with cupholders and more leg room.

[Brownie19]

I'll certainly pay a little more to have padded seats with cupholders and more leg room.

 

Actually - that would be a sweet upgrade. I love the 200 level seats behind home plate.

[John_Havok]

Actually - that would be a sweet upgrade. I love the 200 level seats behind home plate.

 

Yup, that's where I sat a few weeks ago when I was in town. Well worth the money for me since I'm 6'6"

[burlingtonbandit]

Actually - that would be a sweet upgrade. I love the 200 level seats behind home plate.

 

Yeah exactly. Having only 8 seats in the aisle is really nice too as you barely need to get up for anyone.

 

I think they make a Section like that in the 100 Level either by expanding the In the Actions seats to be 5 or 6 rows or have what the Yankees have with the Legends suites.

[jaysblue]

Actually - that would be a sweet upgrade. I love the 200 level seats behind home plate.

 

I find the 200 level seats in the TD Zone don't have the greatest amount of legroom.

[vdubmvp]

I find the 200 level seats in the TD Zone don't have the greatest amount of legroom.

 

They definitely don't. I'm short and I thought they were terrible.

[jaysblue]

They definitely don't. I'm short and I thought they were terrible.

 

So it's not just me haha? Yeah me and my friend went to a Dodgers game last season and got seats up in the TD Comfort Zone. We were both shocked at how there was hardly any legroom. We even found the 100 level seats had more. I like the concept on how the sections are smaller with like only 8 seats per row and how you have your own private concourse for washrooms and concession stands, though the legroom was awful for what are considered premium seats.

[burlingtonbandit]

So it's not just me haha? Yeah me and my friend went to a Dodgers game last season and got seats up in the TD Comfort Zone. We were both shocked at how there was hardly any legroom. We even found the 100 level seats had more. I like the concept on how the sections are smaller with like only 8 seats per row and how you have your own private concourse for washrooms and concession stands, though the legroom was awful for what are considered premium seats.

 

lol what? There is so much more leg room in the TD Club than the 100L..

 

I have seasons in the 100L and I have to get the aisle because its ridiculous how little room there is. Outfield is even worse.

[G-Snarls]

Big long read from MLBTR:

 

Taking Inventory: Toronto Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | July 12, 2017 at 8:24pm CDT

 

This is the 13th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series.

 

The non-waiver trade deadline is just 19 days away, and over the coming weeks there will be several teams that at one point looked to be fringe contenders but are now gravitating toward marketing certain veteran assets. One such club is the Blue Jays, who are reportedly open to offers on their short-term veterans. There’s an important distinction to make between that and operating as a full-on seller; there’s yet to be any serious indication that the Jays are interested in a lengthy rebuild. In fact, Toronto has reported interest in acquiring Dee Gordon and has reportedly scouted Jose Quintana.

 

It’s easy to get caught up in the dichotomy of “buyers” versus “sellers,” but the lines are nowhere near so black and white for most clubs. The Jays could look to move some expensive assets right now — the veterans they’re reportedly open to moving are relatively well compensated and have been injured and/or haven’t performed up to standard — while also adding some longer-term pieces for a reloaded run in 2018 and beyond. That said, here’s a look at what they have to offer, both in terms of short-term pieces and higher-impact, long-term pieces (if a larger tear-down is eventually settled upon).

 

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart | Toronto Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]

 

Rentals

 

Marco Estrada, RHP (starter) | Salary: $14MM (approx. $6.27MM remaining)

 

The most interesting name among the Blue Jays’ rentals, Estrada was in the midst of a brilliant season before an awful month of June and a clunker in early July torpedoed his ERA. That said, the righty still has intriguing peripherals, with 9.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a fastball that’s noticeably harder than it was in 2016 (though still sits at an average of just 90.1 mph). Estrada’s chase rate and swinging-strike rate are both the second-best of his career as well. Estrada has a history of back issues, but if a team believes him to be fully healthy and thinks June was largely an aberration, he could be a significant upgrade to a big league rotation for two months or so.

 

Francisco Liriano, LHP (starter) | $13MM ($5.83MM)

 

Consistency was always an issue for Liriano before he signed with the Pirates, but his previous control issues came back to haunt him in Pittsburgh last year, prompting a trade to Toronto. He was sensational down the stretch in 2016, but the Jays have had the bad version of Liriano for much of the current season. The 33-year-old’s strikeout and walk rates have both raced in the opposite direction of last year’s excellent post-trade marks, and his 44.9 percent grounder rate is his worst since 2012. It’s cliche to call Liriano “mercurial” or “enigmatic” at this point, but the labels fit. If a pitching-needy team feels like it can solve Liriano, the cost of acquisition won’t be too high.

 

Jose Bautista, OF/DH | $18.5MM ($8.57MM)

 

After a terrible April, the “Joey Bats” of old emerged in May — a month during which Bautista was one of the very best hitters on the planet. He followed that up with another terrible month in June, though things have started to even out a bit more recently. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Bautista in 2017, but the strikeouts are up and the power is down; the result to this point is a .234/.349/.400 slash that wRC+ and OPS+ grade as roughly league average. Considering his lack of defensive value, that line won’t cut it. The Jays could market him this summer, but it’ll be tough to get much in return, even if they eat some salary.

 

Joe Smith, RHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)

 

Smith hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to shoulder inflammation, but he’s most of the way through a minor league rehab stint and has been good when healthy. He’s sporting a 3.41 ERA with considerably better peripherals (13.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 46.5 percent ground-ball rate) through 31 2/3 frames. Assuming he gets healthy, Smith could be an affordable bullpen piece that’ll draw plenty of interest.

 

J.P. Howell, LHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)

 

Howell (shoulder soreness) is also on the disabled list and partway through a minor league rehab stint, though his season has been much different than that of Smith. The 34-year-old has been limited to just 8 2/3 innings this year because of said shoulder troubles, during which he’s posted an 8.31 ERA and walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (five). A healthy Howell is a nice bullpen piece, but teams aren’t going to give up much to get him given this year’s injuries.

 

Darwin Barney, 2B/SS | $2.8875MM ($1.29MM)

 

The 31-year-old Barney can play both middle infield positions and has a strong defensive reputation, but his bat has been nonexistent in 2017. Through 168 PAs, he’s hitting .231/.277/.295. He was a valuable bench piece in Toronto as recently as 2016, though, so a team could speculatively pick him up on the cheap and hope for a bit more with the bat.

 

Controlled Through 2018

 

Josh Donaldson, 3B | $11.65MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018

 

To be as clear and up-front as possible, there’s been no serious suggestion that the Jays are willing to even entertain offers on the 2015 American League MVP. Donaldson missed about six weeks of the season due to a calf injury (which played a huge role in the team’s poor first half) but has been productive, albeit not quite his dominant self when healthy. Through 193 PAs, he’s slashing .261/.383/.484 with nine homers and nine doubles. The Blue Jays won’t move Donaldson unless they’re seriously considering at least a medium-scale rebuild, as moving him would almost immediately signal a white flag of sorts for the 2018 season. If Donaldson is made available (a big “if”), he’d require an enormous package of talent featuring multiple top prospects and/or MLB-ready commodities.

 

J.A. Happ, LHP (starter) | $13MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018

 

Moving Happ wouldn’t quite be the 2018 concession that a Donaldson trade would represent, but he’d still require a notable package of young talent to acquire. After reinventing himself following a trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh in 2015, Happ has maintained much of that newfound excellent in his second go-around with the Jays. Elbow inflammation cost him a couple of months of the 2017 season, but he’s been strong since returning from the disabled list. Dating back to Opening Day 2016, Happ boasts a 3.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 256 innings. He’s a solid and fairly priced mid-rotation arm, meaning he won’t come cheaply in a trade.

 

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF/2B | $6.25MM in 2017, $6.25MM in 2018

 

Pearce hasn’t hit nearly as well as he did with the Orioles in 2014 or the Rays in 2016. His .259/.320/.430 slash is solid enough, and he’s still a power threat against lefties that can play multiple positions on the field. But he, too, has spent time on the DL this season, and his salary isn’t necessarily cheap if he can’t rediscover some of his 2014 or 2016 form at the dish.

 

Aaron Loup, LHP (reliever) | $1.125MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2018

 

Loup can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate has soared in 2017 while lefties have clobbered him. I doubt he’s going to be anyone’s Plan A or B, but he could still change hands on deadline day even if the Jays aren’t punting on the 2018 season. He’s a non-tender candidate after the year but has a decent track record against lefty batters.

 

Longer-Term Assets

 

Justin Smoak, 1B | $4.125MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018 (plus $6MM club option/$250K buyout for 2019)

 

The Yonder Alonso of the East, Smoak has gone from busted prospect to All-Star in short order thanks to a revamped swing plane and, as he tells it, some offseason work with a sports psychologist. The contract is so affordable that even if he takes a bit of a step back, he now looks like a bargain. This time last year, most were curious as to why the Jays offered him a two-year extension. Now, any team looking for help at first base or DH — and there admittedly aren’t many — would love to buy into his new approach. The lack of a market and his highly affordable contract make a deal seem unlikely, though.

 

Jeff Beliveau, LHP (reliever) | Not arbitration-eligible until 2018-19 offseason

 

Beliveau has proven to be a nice find on a minor league deal for the Jays, having tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in Triple-A prior to a big league promotion. It’s been more of the same through his first 14 1/3 innings back in the Majors; he’s worked to a 3.14 ERA with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio. The sample of work is pretty small, and Beliveau was out of the Majors for most of two seasons due to 2015 surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The value here isn’t huge, but a team looking for some left-handed relief help might kick the tires.

 

Marcus Stroman, RHP (starter) | $3.4MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2020 (Super Two)

 

Speaking of unlikely, a Stroman trade would only happen if the Jays elected to completely tear things down. I don’t expect that to happen, but as a pitcher who has already reached arbitration and is going to make a nice raise on an already decent salary in arbitration, Stroman would be the one long-term rotation piece I could see moving in that scenario. Again, though, it’s not likely.

 

Large Contracts

 

Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH | $10MM in 2017, $11MM in 2018, $12MM in 2019

Troy Tulowitzki, SS | $20MM annually 2017-19, $14MM in 2020 (plus $15MM club option/$4MM buyout for 2021)

Russell Martin, C | $20MM annually 2017-19

Morales and Tulowitzki aren’t hitting well enough for anyone to really consider taking on either of those deals in a trade, though the Jays wouldn’t mind shedding the cash. Martin’s offense is down somewhat in 2017, but he’s still been a valuable backstop, even if he’s slightly overpaid. That said, he’ll turn 35 this winter with $40MM on the books beyond the current campaign, and there aren’t too many clubs lining up to acquire a catcher in the first place.

[John_Havok]

Priority has to be ditching Tulo ASAP imo...

 

It can be done. Jays will have to eat half of it likely but it can be done

[Sammy225]

Priority has to be ditching Tulo ASAP imo...

 

It can be done. Jays will have to eat half of it likely but it can be done

 

We were able to get rid of wells surely to god we can move Tulo lol

[L54]

It is going to suck having to watch Kendrys Morales in 2019.

[Brownie19]

It is going to suck having to watch Kendrys Morales in 2019.

 

He might break the record for the worst single season BsR in ML history by then (unless Pujols is still playing). I went to try and find out who holds that distinction, but got side tracked by the best base runners of all time. Names that stood out include:

 

3. Ichiro (no surprise)

5. Juan Pierre

6. Carl Crawford

7. Billy Hamilton (no not that one, his great, great, great Grandpa, the 5'6 OFer from the late 1800's who could actually hit (career wRC+ of 142)

8. Jimmy Rollins

13. Johnny Damon (1 ahead of Lou Brock

15. Jose Reyes

16. Chase Utley

17. Kenny Loften

19. Carlos Beltran (no surprise)

22. Coco Crisp

23. Rajai Davis (one ahead of Ty Cobb)

31. Brett Gardner

35. Curtis Granderson

39. Jacoby Ellsubry

40. Ian Kinsler

48. Billy Hamilton (yes that one in 3.5 seasons)

50. Mike Trout

 

Seems like a lot of "recent" players. Are players just smarter base runners these days?

 

BTW - Tony Womack is 29th on the list. He finished his career with 1.6 WAR. Yikes.

[Grant77]

There is almost certainly a bias in the statistics, considering the lack of data for players like Cobb

[wamco]

He might break the record for the worst single season BsR in ML history by then (unless Pujols is still playing). I went to try and find out who holds that distinction, but got side tracked by the best base runners of all time. Names that stood out include:

 

3. Ichiro (no surprise)

5. Juan Pierre

6. Carl Crawford

7. Billy Hamilton (no not that one, his great, great, great Grandpa, the 5'6 OFer from the late 1800's who could actually hit (career wRC+ of 142)

8. Jimmy Rollins

13. Johnny Damon (1 ahead of Lou Brock

15. Jose Reyes

16. Chase Utley

17. Kenny Loften

19. Carlos Beltran (no surprise)

22. Coco Crisp

23. Rajai Davis (one ahead of Ty Cobb)

31. Brett Gardner

35. Curtis Granderson

39. Jacoby Ellsubry

40. Ian Kinsler

48. Billy Hamilton (yes that one in 3.5 seasons)

50. Mike Trout

 

Seems like a lot of "recent" players. Are players just smarter base runners these days?

 

BTW - Tony Womack is 29th on the list. He finished his career with 1.6 WAR. Yikes.

 

What is rest of top 10? Raines, Rickey, ty?

[Krylian]

It is going to suck having to watch Kendrys Morales in 2019.

 

It kinda sucks watching him now.

[John_Havok]

We were able to get rid of wells surely to god we can move Tulo lol

 

The trouble will be convincing Rogers that the 10 million per year, or whatever they have to eat to get it done, should not count against their budget for players. Consider it sunk cost, but don't let it stop them from doing other things they need to do.