The Jays have a one-year agreement with left-handed reliever J.P. Howell

[Jayday]

Rosenthal reporting that we will be taking a look at right handed relief pitchers for around the same price. Stills lots of names out there:

 

Aaron Barrett (29)

Matt Belisle (37)

Joe Blanton (36)

David Hernandez (32)

Luke Hochevar (33)

Tommy Hunter (30)

Edwin Jackson (33)

Kevin Jepsen (32)

Seth Maness (28)

Peter Moylan (38)

Jonathan Papelbon (36)

Yusmeiro Petit (32)

Sergio Romo (34)

Fernando Salas (32)

Joe Smith (33)

Carlos Villanueva (33)

Chien-Ming Wang (37)

Tom Wilhelmsen (33)

Jerome Williams (35)

 

Anyone interesting in the $3 Million range?

 

Joe Smith ,pretty sure that's not his real name ... what's he hiding?

[Laika]

Guys this signing is two things...

 

1) Good

2) Indicative of very good process

 

Cheers

[Muck Bartinez]

Well... he's right? He's talking about what they actually did. He isn't saying Howell is better than Cecil going forward. Howell's actual results are nearly half a run better than Cecil's since 2013.

 

RA9-WAR has them even over that time.

 

Just because FIP has predictive value does not make it a predictive stat. It is descriptive. Their strikeouts, walks, and home runs actually did happen, and are much more indicative of their skill than RA.

 

That is why we have FIP WAR. It doesn't mean "this is what his WAR should be;" it represents his actual WAR.

 

That is also why we don't have xFIP-WAR. Because xFIP is a predictive stat that did not actually happen, while WAR is a descriptive stat of what did happen.

 

 

 

tl;dr FIP is a better predictor, but is still a better measure of "results" than RA, especially over a small sample. Although none of them are necessarily "good" for evaluating relief contributions

 

I agree that FIP is far better stat, but I'd disagree that it better measures "results", at least in the way that I view them, which would be actual runs allowed. Obviously it's a way better way to predict like you said, and to compare pitchers in a context-neutral type of way, but to say the pitcher with the more runs allowed had better results doesn't make much sense to me, even if every run he allowed was due to park effects, bad defense, babip, etc.

[Muck Bartinez]

RA9 isn't really a pure runs allowed expression for specialist relievers. They're all simplifying abstractions of something that can't be readily measured.

 

I'll have to take your word on that one, and I'm not trying to be some contrary prick, or some ERA-is-gospel chest beater. I was just trying to defend the point that FIP might not necessarily measure results, but more like things that a pitcher can control that typically lead to good results. Sort of akin to the Morrow/Nolasco FIP vs RA9 WAR discrepancies, but with relievers instead.

 

Either way, decent signing for no risk.

[THANOS]

Chris Smith throws with his right hand.

 

Lol f***.. Don't know why I thought he was a lefty.

[GodDonaldson]

Some fans do not like this signing because his fastball velocity is slow.

Yes, his average velocity is just over 85mph, which is very slow compared to other pitchers in the league

However, he doesn't throw straight fastball.. According to fangraphs, most of his fastballs are sinking fastball.. Which is similar to Zach Britton. That means he can induce a lot of groundballs. He also has a great breakingball around 80mph (I don't know if it is slider, slurve, or knuckle curve)..

 

He also played with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he is familiar with the division.

 

He is far better than Blevins or Breslow

[KingKat]

Some fans do not like this signing because his fastball velocity is slow.

Yes, his average velocity is just over 85mph, which is very slow compared to other pitchers in the league

However, he doesn't throw straight fastball.. According to fangraphs, most of his fastballs are sinking fastball.. Which is similar to Zach Britton. That means he can induce a lot of groundballs. He also has a great breakingball around 80mph (I don't know if it is slider, slurve, or knuckle curve)..

 

He also played with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he is familiar with the division.

 

He is far better than Blevins or Breslow

 

I don't see why anyone would worry about his velocity. He's not coming in to be a lights out closer. He's coming in to be a loogy and he has the skill set for that role. Between him and Loup, the bullpen should have what it takes to suppress left-handed bats at a combined cost that will probably be less than what the top guys will command.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't see why anyone would worry about his velocity. He's not coming in to be a lights out closer. He's coming in to be a loogy and he has the skill set for that role. Between him and Loup, the bullpen should have what it takes to suppress left-handed bats at a combined cost that will probably be less than what the top guys will command.

 

Velocity always matters, the higher the velo the more difficult it is to hit. Its like when people say Marco Estrada doesn't need to throw hard to be effective. He can still be effective at his current 89-90 MPH but if he was throwing 2-3 MPH harder he'd be a lot better than he is.

 

On the flip side anytime velocity drops it becomes easier to hit that pitcher.

[KingKat]

Velocity always matters, the higher the velo the more difficult it is to hit. Its like when people say Marco Estrada doesn't need to throw hard to be effective. He can still be effective at his current 89-90 MPH but if he was throwing 2-3 MPH harder he'd be a lot better than he is.

 

On the flip side anytime velocity drops it becomes easier to hit that pitcher.

 

Yes but what do we care about how effective someone would be with a theoretical velocity increase? All that really matters is how effective they can be now at their current velocity. Both Howell and Estrada should be effective. That's what matters.

[Nafro]

Some fans do not like this signing because his fastball velocity is slow.

Yes, his average velocity is just over 85mph, which is very slow compared to other pitchers in the league

However, he doesn't throw straight fastball.. According to fangraphs, most of his fastballs are sinking fastball.. Which is similar to Zach Britton. That means he can induce a lot of groundballs. He also has a great breakingball around 80mph (I don't know if it is slider, slurve, or knuckle curve)..

 

He also played with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he is familiar with the division.

 

He is far better than Blevins or Breslow

 

I feel like this deserves its own forum!

[Governator]

Velocity always matters, the higher the velo the more difficult it is to hit. Its like when people say Marco Estrada doesn't need to throw hard to be effective. He can still be effective at his current 89-90 MPH but if he was throwing 2-3 MPH harder he'd be a lot better than he is.

 

On the flip side anytime velocity drops it becomes easier to hit that pitcher.

 

 

 

If Estrada was throwing 3mph faster it doesn't really mean he'd be much more effective. All he cares about is his league leading 11mph drop in velocity between his FB & CH while commanding his pitches. Hell he could probably reach back and throw 2-3mph faster but that probably wouldn't help what he's trying to achieve on the mound which is miss bats by messing up their timing. If you throw heat (like 96++), you can get away with a little less command and at that point yea there'd be a difference between Osuna's heat and Chapmans but a guy throwing 88 vs 91 is not going to make it harder for an MLB hitter to square up your pitch, it's how you command it and maybe more importantly, how you set up that pitch.

[Gary]

JP Howell is like Mark Buehrle as a reliever.

[burlingtonbandit]

If Estrada was throwing 3mph faster it doesn't really mean he'd be much more effective. All he cares about is his league leading 11mph drop in velocity between his FB & CH while commanding his pitches. Hell he could probably reach back and throw 2-3mph faster but that probably wouldn't help what he's trying to achieve on the mound which is miss bats by messing up their timing. If you throw heat (like 96++), you can get away with a little less command and at that point yea there'd be a difference between Osuna's heat and Chapmans but a guy throwing 88 vs 91 is not going to make it harder for an MLB hitter to square up your pitch, it's how you command it and maybe more importantly, how you set up that pitch.

 

If he still had the exact same changeup and velocity difference he would be way more effective..

 

He's really good because of the deception and velo difference. If hes throwing 92 high in the zone with the same changeup its giving the hitter even less reaction time making it harder to hit.

[Nafro]

If he still had the exact same changeup and velocity difference he would be way more effective..

 

He's really good because of the deception and velo difference. If hes throwing 92 high in the zone with the same changeup its giving the hitter even less reaction time making it harder to hit.

 

And he certainly wouldn't be available in February at one year for three million.

[TheHurl]

If Estrada was throwing 3mph faster it doesn't really mean he'd be much more effective. All he cares about is his league leading 11mph drop in velocity between his FB & CH while commanding his pitches. Hell he could probably reach back and throw 2-3mph faster but that probably wouldn't help what he's trying to achieve on the mound which is miss bats by messing up their timing. If you throw heat (like 96++), you can get away with a little less command and at that point yea there'd be a difference between Osuna's heat and Chapmans but a guy throwing 88 vs 91 is not going to make it harder for an MLB hitter to square up your pitch, it's how you command it and maybe more importantly, how you set up that pitch.

 

What if he was throwing from the outfield?

[Grant77]

So rumour is that we're looking to get a RH reliever at a similar price tag. Who would you give 3 million to?

 

Joe Blanton and Sergio Romo are appealing at that price. Matt Belisle, David Hernandez, and Fernando Salas are all somewhat interesting as well.

[Governator]

So rumour is that we're looking to get a RH reliever at a similar price tag. Who would you give 3 million to?

 

Joe Blanton and Sergio Romo are appealing at that price. Matt Belisle, David Hernandez, and Fernando Salas are all somewhat interesting as well.

 

I like Salas but I'm sure he's out of the price range.

[BTS]

So rumour is that we're looking to get a RH reliever at a similar price tag. Who would you give 3 million to?

 

Joe Blanton and Sergio Romo are appealing at that price. Matt Belisle, David Hernandez, and Fernando Salas are all somewhat interesting as well.

 

Joe Smith

[Nafro]

What if he was throwing from the outfield?

 

I would have a small chance of being able to hit it.

[Captain Adama]

Joe Smith

 

Yes, he would probably take less than 3 million and could easily become a 3.50 FIP reliever.

[Grant77]

I like Salas but I'm sure he's out of the price range.

 

It's hard to say at this point. The market for middle relievers has been so slow.

[Grant77]

Joe Smith

 

His 4.99 FIP last year and mediocre projections aren't too appealing to me, but he may be worth a shot at the price range we're talking about

[Ray]

Wonder if we can pony up a couple million extra and get Romo to be a set up guy. Would make me a lot more confident in the pen.

[glory]

Blanton would be a good fit. He might get more than $3mm though.

[Spanky99]

Blanton would be a good fit. He might get more than $3mm though.

 

If Blanton or Romo went for 3 million, it would be a Festivus Miracle!

[z3r0s]

If Blanton or Romo went for 3 million, it would be a Festivus Miracle!

 

Pick em both up if they're going that cheap!

 

*edit* they can help us increase our club age!

[FrozenRopes]

Any chance Howell has better numbers than Cecil this year?

[Angrioter]

Any chance Howell has better numbers than Cecil this year?

 

0.000000001%

[Bojangles]

0.000000001%

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/fc/fc2fca5cc8833d35c92822a6af386914480a4e7c2411a6329d9742eb6bc89110.jpg

[TheHurl]

Any chance Howell has better numbers than Cecil this year?

 

Relievers ... so yes there is a chance.