A look at the brief history of Mark Shapiro's Blue Jays, till now and moving forward

[TwistedLogic]

Introduction

 

This post was intended for the negative cesspool that is reddit right now; considering that it is original content and many

here don't browse reddit, I felt that I should post here as well. Please take into account that much of the included rambling

was geared toward a more casual audience and I understand that the sentiment on this forum is generally more positive

toward the front office.

 

I will begin by saying that, while I will try to be as objective as possible, the basis of this post is very subjective in nature,

and that will likely seep through in the following content. I have grown tired of seeing so much of the discussion surrounding

this team being focused on how badly the front office has done, and how poor the team looks moving forward. This post

will take an opposing stance and try and highlight the positives about this team, both on the management front, and in the

organization and roster itself.

 

---

2015-2016

 

First, let's take a look at the transaction history for the first season under Mark Shapiro's regime (lead by Tony LaCava and

Ross Atkins):

 

http://i.imgur.com/bS23UDg.png

 

Here I have provided a list of major transactions made by the front office (information sourced from baseball-reference)

and have also included a subjective rating on what I think of the moves. We are not gauging whether or not these moves

were no-brainers (Price, Estrada), but simply whether or not they were good or bad moves.

 

Excellent: Price, Happ, Estrada, Biagini, Grilli, Liriano

 

Good: Barney, Benoit, Bolsinger

 

Mediocre: Thole, Storen, Upton

 

Bad: Feldman

 

Terrible: Chavez

 

Note: The Justin Smoak extension wasn't included on Baseball Reference's transactions page and I had forgotten about it at the time of this writing. For the

purpose of this exercise, I would categorize the Smoak extension as "terrible". Somebody please extinguish the Smoak.

 

Most of these ratings are unquestionable. Of the rest, I've rated Bolsinger good because Bolsinger is a decent depth piece,

and getting rid of Chavez, at least to me, was addition by subtraction. Storen was bad for the Jays but Revere was equally

bad for the Nationals, and despite not doing much for the 2016 Blue Jays, Upton provides a very useful 4th OF/platoon bat

for minimal salary going forward.

 

From the moment they've taken over, this front office has made a slew of brilliant, shrewd moves that have cost them

next to nothing in resources and provided an incredible amount of surplus value. Of the only two poor moves that were

made, Feldman cost a no-name low-minors prospect and while Hendriks was and is a solid middle-relief pitcher, Chavez

was coming off a 2.3 fWAR performance at the time of the trade.

 

This front office has given no reason for the fans to ridicule them and every reason to have faith that their under-the-

radar moves will continue to work, until they don't.

 

---

2017

 

A list of transactions for the 2017 season so far:

 

http://i.imgur.com/wr5PQSn.png

 

This list doesn't include the signings of Jason Grilli, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Glenn Sparkman

(a Rule 5 pick that has actually put up better numbers than Joe Biagini at every level of the

minors).

 

There is no reason to speculate on what will be done with the roster spots of Cecil, Bautista

and Saunders until those decisions are made. Speaking on Encarnacion, Pearce and Morales,

all we know is that the team offered $80M to the first, and then signed the next two for a

combined $45.5M.

 

As I wrote earlier this season, there are many reasons why Morales could be viewed as a

breakout candidate heading to the Blue Jays, despite being 33 years old. Between his elite

hard-contact rates (Top 5-10 in MLB), his propensity to hit for power and the Jays lack of

speed-oriented baseball, Morales is heading to a prime environment in which he will have

every chance to thrive.

 

Steve Pearce remains one of the most underrated players in baseball. Having posted a

gargantuan 4.9 fWAR in just 102 games in 2014, he was back at it again in 2016, providing

2.0 WAR of production in just 85 games played. His wRC+ (136) was actually higher than

that of Encarnacion's (134) albeit within a smaller sample.

 

People have criticized this signing because of Pearce's injuries in 2016 but he is only taking

the roster spot of another injury prone player (Bautista or Saunders). He provided more

value than Michael Saunders in 55 fewer games played, and more value than Jose Bautista

in 31 fewer games played, and there isn't any real reason to believe any of these three

players is more dependable for playing time than the others. Despite having been bogged

down by injuries and poor-decision platoons (Pearce is actually an above average hitter

from both sides of the plate), Steve Pearce has been a legitimate contributor.

 

There is a high likelihood that neither of these two players outperforms Edwin Encarnacion

in 2017, but there is a very good possibility that they do provide more value collectively,

for nearly half the cost of what the Blue Jays were willing to offer Encarnacion.

 

---

Moving Forward

 

From this point until more moves are made, all we can do is speculate and offer

suggestions on what we'd like to see. Personally, I'd love to see an acquisition like Andrew

McCutchen, but I am also wary of the price tag involved. I don't think an acquisition of

that caliber is necessary for this team to succeed.

 

Since it's impossible for us to accurately read the trade market, my preferences from the

remaining players in free agency would be as follows:

 

1) Re-sign Jose Bautista to play 1st base:

 

While I hate the idea of putting him back out on the field and I have greatly soured on his

personality, this is still Jose Bautista, and he is still projected for a 2.7 fWAR in 2017. He

is unquestionably the best remaining baseballer available on the open market. My

contingency for not getting Bautista would be someone like Luis Valbuena, who could be

a very good fallback on a very cheap deal.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kjxv6vI.png

 

2) Sign Angel Pagan to play RF or LF:

 

Angel Pagan is 35 years old, which means Angel Pagan will cost very little to sign in free

agency. He is coming off a 2.0 fWAR season and is still a good defender in the outfield.

He is also a switch-hitter who has historically hit righties well, and would therefore make

a perfect platoon partner for Melvin Upton Jr., who mashes lefties. There aren't many

ways that you could replace Michael Saunders' offensive production, while at the same time

greatly improving the defense for a significant portion of your field, that are better than

Angel Pagan. It is my belief that this can be one of the better under-the-radar moves of

the offseason.

 

http://i.imgur.com/eDeZgF8.png

 

3) Sign Matt Belisle and Jerry Blevins:

 

Or whoever else. Belisle is a specific preference of mine because he has consistently been

one of the more underrated relief arms in baseball and has been a solid contributor for a

long time.

 

http://i.imgur.com/xzPiJVQ.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/NWXxvAA.png

 

4) Release Justin Smoak (at the local animal shelter):

 

I know this isn't technically a free agency move, but you could make it a free agency move

by making Justin Smoak a free agent. Please remove him.

 

http://i.imgur.com/fcftMxk.png

Edited January 11, 2017 by TwistedLogic

[george09]

Did you post this on the jays subreddit as well? Good post.

 

 

But the Jays subreddit is terrible right now, If you say anything good about management they'll call you a rogers shill or something like that.

[jays4life19]

Did you post this on the jays subreddit as well? Good post.

 

 

But the Jays subreddit is terrible right now ], If you say anything good about management they'll call you a rogers shill or something like that.

 

Pretty sure it's always terrible.

[Laika]

the subreddit is always bad

 

it's like the bottom 10% of this board got scraped off and found a new home on reddit

[baubau]

Nicely done! I'd only disagree on:

 

- Feldman, move to indifferent. Given this team was in a playoff hunt/contention, making no-name prospect moves for playoff push/depth is a solid strategy. I understand he did suck aside from 3-4 innings. Also wouldn't mind Feldman back for depth actually, haha.

 

- Upton, its a little too early to judge as he still has a year with the Jays. If he puts up 1+ WAR season for the Jays, it would be great considering the Jays are paying him for like .5 WAR for production.

 

*Understand the prospects given up could "surprise" in the future and make both trades look bad.

[TwistedLogic]

Nicely done! I'd only disagree on:

 

- Feldman, move to indifferent. Given this team was in a playoff hunt/contention, making no-name prospect moves for playoff push/depth is a solid strategy. I understand he did suck aside from 3-4 innings. Also wouldn't mind Feldman back for depth actually, haha.

 

- Upton, its a little too early to judge as he still has a year with the Jays. If he puts up 1+ WAR season for the Jays, it would be great considering the Jays are paying him for like .5 WAR for production.

 

*Understand the prospects given up could "surprise" in the future and make both trades look bad.

 

I agree on Feldman in that I liked the move at the time. The ratings I gave each move were considering hindsight and what actually happened, which is why I moved Feldman into bad and Upton into the mediocre category. I think both of those moves were excellent at the time considering where the team was. I liked the Chavez trade quite a bit as well.

 

I still think Upton could pay dividends (especially if he's platooned with a guy like Pagan).

 

On a more general note, after taking another look at the stat pages, I'm starting to want Luis Valbuena on this team more than I want to bring back Jose Bautista. He had a better 2016, he does everything that Bautista does (better defense, less power - maybe), he's a lot younger, and he's not going to cost much. Additionally, if a team makes a desperation lunge at Bautista, that draft pick is still out there.

Edited January 11, 2017 by TwistedLogic

[saskjayfan]

he re-signed Justin Smoak...you missed that one.

[P2F]

he re-signed Justin Smoak...you missed that one.

Didn't read the whole post.

[TwistedLogic]

he re-signed Justin Smoak...you missed that one.

 

I did miss it at the time, but I eventually made that unfortunate recollection and included a little note in the OP.

 

I used a "1" size font to represent the ceiling for Justin Smoak's career WAR.

 

Didn't read the whole post.

 

I kinda don't blame him, lol.

[Sorrow]

the subreddit is always bad

 

it's like the bottom 10% of this board got scraped off and found a new home on reddit

 

There are a few good posters, and the private community is quite good. I imagine a lot of the good posters are also posters here.

[gruber92]

Pompey > Pagan.

[Jimcanuck]

Pompey > Pagan.

 

Maybe. This year is the time to give Pompey a fair chance.

[Boxcar]

the subreddit is always bad

 

it's like the bottom 10% of this board got scraped off and found a new home on reddit

 

One would question why TL even bothers with that rabble unless he's some kind of supreme altruist looking to educate all those plebs.

[Laika]

One would question why TL even bothers with that rabble unless he's some kind of supreme altruist looking to educate all those plebs.

 

upvotes are addictive

[Brownie19]

I'm game for your plan - except the part where you said Chris Carter is a fallback option...

 

I even think you could add Valbeuna to your plan to complete it. Jose, Pagan, Valbeuna and a couple relievers would complete this offseason....although part of me thinks I'd rather just give Pompey a shot instead of Pagan...

[Boxcar]

upvotes are addictive

 

How do you get upvotes when you're the only smarty pants in a sea of retards?

 

E: retards who don't know that they're retards, that is

[Sorrow]

upvotes are addictive

 

I know that I use it purely as a news source because I'm too old to learn to twitter or anything like that. It's a lot faster than going into the threads here and digging through it. I prefer to do that when I can sit down and spend a bit of time doing something instead of just wanting to see if something has happened while I'm seeing what people in Ottawa are complaining about now.

[Grant77]

It's worth noting that Darwin Barney was arbitration eligible. People often cite this as a good move, when it was basically a no-brainer.

[Maahfaace]

How do you get upvotes when you're the only smarty pants in a sea of retards?

 

E: retards who don't know that they're retards, that is

 

So that's where Twisted was hanging out after his hiatus from BJMB last year. Reddit is awful reading and a waste of time.

[Bobthe4th]

If this was meant for Reddit, where's the tldr?

[baubau]

Reddit is awful reading and a waste of time.

 

I enjoyed reading the meltdowns after EE signed with the Tribe. Damn casuals!

 

 

 

..its been a slow offseason. don't judge me.

[Bobthe4th]

So that's where Twisted was hanging out after his hiatus from BJMB last year. Reddit is awful reading and a waste of time.

 

The only bit I read is askreddit which sometimes has interesting stories posted.

[intentional wok]

The Feldman thing doesn't need to be neutral; the whole day of August 1 needs a gold star. Maybe the best day of Shatkins' tenure?

 

Feldman obviously didn't do a lot down the stretch but the rationale of using him to replace Chavez after flipping Chavez for Bolsinger (who was a replacement for Hutch, who himself got flipped for Liriano + two prospects) seemed reasonable to me.

Edited January 11, 2017 by intentional wok

[TwistedLogic]

I know that I use it purely as a news source because I'm too old to learn to twitter or anything like that. It's a lot faster than going into the threads here and digging through it. I prefer to do that when I can sit down and spend a bit of time doing something instead of just wanting to see if something has happened while I'm seeing what people in Ottawa are complaining about now.

 

Yeah, it's pretty good for news and I find it to be a more laidback environment. I mean, the GDTs and most of the general discussion is just as s***** as it gets here but the overall atmosphere is not as hardcore and it's so big that if you say something dumb, nobody will know about it an hour later. Forums are much more unforgiving in that regard. It's a lot easier to develop a reputation and one slip up can get people coming after you for months, even years in some cases.

 

The most appealing thing to me though is that there's a lot of crossover between communities. A lot more things to discuss with a lot more people to discuss them with. Posting there is what got me into NBA and NHL and it's pretty much my #1 news source now for world events and things like that.

 

All that said, I definitely see why it's unappealing to a lot of people. I had a pretty bad perception of it myself, but after I left here it was the most active Jays community around so I just chose to dig in. Was a really pleasant change of pace becoming a nobody and getting a fresh start.

[TwistedLogic]

I think I might actually hate this person.

 

[Brownie19]

I actually read some of the comments you got off reddit and they weren't nearly as bad as I expected.

[Nafro]

I think I might actually hate this person.

 

 

I am a little disappointed you hate my Reddit alter ego.....

[HERPDERP]

It's funny you put the Justin Smoak signing as a footnote. It's a pretty bad f*** up.

[glory]

The Smoak extension was awful at the time, and looks about 100 times worse now. If he were a free agent right now he'd get a minor league deal at best. That's pretty bad.

[BTS]

Good thread.

 

Idiots of the forum: remember when you ran this guy of the board for no good reason?