Around Baseball 2017

[intentional wok]

Their Pythagorean W-L record in 2016 was 77-85, and they've definitely gotten better in the offseason. I don't think its that big of a stretch to think they could contend.

 

Sure, but if the lineup looked legitimately good you'd be saying they will contend rather than they could.

 

If everything breaks right they could have an above avg player at every position. With a good staff that's a semi competitive team. I'd take the over at 82 wins but probably not by much.

 

I'd take the over on 82 as well, but a legit WC contender needs... 88 wins these days? Good lineups don't need several things to break right. If they add some definite solid pieces then yeah, they're a scary WC team. As is, they're praying for a bit of luck. Rotation looks strong though. The Rays will be a bona fide pain in the ass at the least.

[Ray]

Sure, but if the lineup looked legitimately good you'd be saying they will contend rather than they could.

 

There are some questions marks for sure in that lineup. Not sure how Mallex Smith is going to do etc.

 

Can't deny that the Rays have a solid rotation though. That's usually a good place to start when you're contending.

[burlingtonbandit]

They outscored the Jays in the second half last year and were 8th in wRC+ in the second half. And matched the Jays in runs scored on the road. This is very much a team that could be scary.

 

Does their 100 wRC+ in the 2nd half really change anything though? I've really liked what they have done this offseason but at the end of the day the team still is the 4th best in the division. If things break right I can see them in Wild Card contention, but you could say the same thing about a lot of teams.

[King]

http://i.imgur.com/y0Cd3Ni.png

 

lmao

[Spanky__99]

Cubs to sign Anderson...

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214224268/cubs-reportedly-to-sign-brett-anderson/

[G-Snarls]

Anderson pitched more rehab games in 2016 than he pitched MLB games

[wamco]

This isn't the first time I've heard about them, who are they exactly and what's up with them? All I know is that they're a church following or something right?

 

They dumb. They suxxxxx

[Ray]

[intentional wok]

That would have been great for the Blue Jays. It's possible Valbuena liked the prospect of playing in Los Angeles over Toronto, but missing out on a deal that's <8M per year kind of sucks.

[Abomination]

That would have been great for the Blue Jays. It's possible Valbuena liked the prospect of playing in Los Angeles over Toronto, but missing out on a deal that's <8M per year kind of sucks.

 

Ideally getting someone who can also play some outfield is more what we need. Coghlan would give us plus fielding (in the OF), and can back up 2nd when Travis goes down. Moss would give us plus fielding in the OF and good power. I'm not sure either would cost more (Coghlan would likely be closer to 3M, if that, but Moss could be 2/15).

[BTS]

Valbuena gets 2/15. Ian Desmond gets 5/70 (plus a pick was punted), and is still penciled in as a 1B. Is Ian Desmond a better 1B than Luis Valbuena?

[jaysblue]

That would have been great for the Blue Jays. It's possible Valbuena liked the prospect of playing in Los Angeles over Toronto, but missing out on a deal that's <8M per year kind of sucks.

 

Probably would have the cost the Jays 2/18 or 2/20.

[Abomination]

Valbuena gets 2/15. Ian Desmond gets 5/70 (plus a pick was punted), and is still penciled in as a 1B. Is Ian Desmond a better 1B than Luis Valbuena?

 

Without question imo. Is he worth twice as much per year (plus the pick)? Dunno.

[intentional wok]

Ideally getting someone who can also play some outfield is more what we need. Coghlan would give us plus fielding (in the OF), and can back up 2nd when Travis goes down. Moss would give us plus fielding in the OF and good power. I'm not sure either would cost more (Coghlan would likely be closer to 3M, if that, but Moss could be 2/15).

 

Yeah, this just fuels my suspicion that there are a lot of concerns about Pearce being in the OF (exacerbated by whether or not Bautista can recover a step or continues to decline). I'm on board with either Pagan or Moss at this point.

 

edit: (or Coghlan, as you suggest)

[Orgfiller]

Without question imo. Is he worth twice as much per year (plus the pick)? Dunno.

 

Without question? Valbuena's been a better hitter the past three seasons, projects to be a better hitter next season, is the same age, and Desmond needed good defense and baserunning in an elite defensive position to give him value. Put them both at first and while Desmond might be a marginally better defender and much better runner, Valbuena's probably a better hitter to where it might be a lot closer than you might think.

[BTS]

Without question imo. Is he worth twice as much per year (plus the pick)? Dunno.

 

I think it's very questionable if Desmond is actually a 1B. Valbuena has been a better hitter over the last few years and has played the position before. I'm pretty convinced Desmond is a < 1 win 1B.

[Abomination]

I think it's very questionable if Desmond is actually a 1B. Valbuena has been a better hitter over the last few years and has played the position before. I'm pretty convinced Desmond is a < 1 win 1B.

 

Meh, Valbuena has made a grand total of 34 starts there, only 7 of which were last year. That seems pretty irrelevant. I'd also consider Desmond a better (and more consistent) hitter outside of 2015, DRAMATICALLY better baserunner, and a better overall fielder in general. For what it's worth, Steamer has Valbuena at 0.3 WAR and Desmond at 1.5 WAR.

[Dr. Dinger]

I think it's very questionable if Desmond is actually a 1B. Valbuena has been a better hitter over the last few years and has played the position before. I'm pretty convinced Desmond is a < 1 win 1B.

 

I don't think the Rockies have any intention of playing Desmond at 1B, at least not for very long. They're just saying that to save face while they find a return they like for Blackmon.

[King]

Angels add another decent player for cheap, and now project to win 84 games. Same as the Cardinals, Mariners and Blue Jays.

[KingKat]

I'm convinced Desmond is going to bust hard. That track record is just so riddled with inconsistencies and red flags. I really think that deal has the potential to be a complete write off.

[Orgfiller]

Meh, Valbuena has made a grand total of 34 starts there, only 7 of which were last year. That seems pretty irrelevant. I'd also consider Desmond a better (and more consistent) hitter outside of 2015, DRAMATICALLY better baserunner, and a better overall fielder in general. For what it's worth, Steamer has Valbuena at 0.3 WAR and Desmond at 1.5 WAR.

 

I'm guessing Steamer has Desmond at 1.5 WAR assuming he's playing a position that is not first base, likely CF or SS. No way they would project his defense to be that good at first.

 

Subtract like 10 runs from defensive value at first and suddenly they project the same.

[King]

I'm guessing Steamer has Desmond at 1.5 WAR assuming he's playing a position that is not first base, likely CF or SS. No way they would project his defense to be that good at first.

 

Subtract like 10 runs from defensive value at first and suddenly they project the same.

 

He's also underselling Valbuena because Steamer only projects him for 228 PA right now. 0.9 WAR/600. I think most people would take the over on the 97 wRC+, 310 wOBA projection too.

[Abomination]

I'm guessing Steamer has Desmond at 1.5 WAR assuming he's playing a position that is not first base, likely CF or SS. No way they would project his defense to be that good at first.

 

Subtract like 10 runs from defensive value at first and suddenly they project the same.

 

I'm not so sure. Desmond has put up 4.7, 4.8, 4, 1.7, 3.3 WAR over the last 5 years. A 1.5 estimate feels like it probably accounts for a position change.

[Orgfiller]

I'm not so sure. Desmond has put up 4.7, 4.8, 4, 1.7, 3.3 WAR over the last 5 years. A 1.5 estimate feels like it probably accounts for a position change.

 

His defensive projection suggests otherwise. The best first baseman last year defensively among those qualified was Mitch Moreland who was worth -3.4 runs when factoring position. I get that Desmond is athletic and generally a good fielder but no way should he be expected to play first better than every 1B in the league in his first opportunity at the position.

[King]

I'm not so sure. Desmond has put up 4.7, 4.8, 4, 1.7, 3.3 WAR over the last 5 years. A 1.5 estimate feels like it probably accounts for a position change.

http://i.imgur.com/h14P6gH.png

[jaysfan2014]

Angels add another decent player for cheap, and now project to win 84 games. Same as the Cardinals, Mariners and Blue Jays.

 

Still need another SP and some bullpen depth, though..

[Brownie19]

Did I miss the discussion on DeLeon for Forsythe?

[Laika]

Did I miss the discussion on DeLeon for Forsythe?

 

Yes.

 

- Great value for Tampa.

- Not bad for LA considering context.

- LA might have informed reservations or concerns about De Leon.

- Tampa has so much pitching depth this year! Wow! And a very strong top end.

 

That's pretty much it.

[KingKat]

Yes.

 

- Great value for Tampa.

- Not bad for LA considering context.

- LA might have informed reservations or concerns about De Leon.

- Tampa has so much pitching depth this year! Wow! And a very strong top end.

 

That's pretty much it.

 

+ Rays have a lot of MI options that should allow them to cover 2B.

[Grant77]

If the reports that the Twins wanted De Leon and a single lesser prospect for Dozier are true, then I think that the Dodgers made a mistake.