Around Baseball 2017

[BTS]

I think Ichiro and Molina are basically shoe-ins. Molina is going to get credit for things that don't how up in the WARz.

[G-Snarls]

It's all good. Tough to make a list like that without forgetting someone.

 

I think Ichiro is a shoo-in. Cano, Pedroia and Beltran probably get hard looks. Utley should get a hard look too but not sure if he will. His 5 year stretch was pretty remarkable.

 

As for pitchers- CC, Felix and Greinke could get in. Sale has some work to do but he could get in too. A lot of the top CL could have a shot too, Kimbrel among them.

 

Yes, Cano could be on list 2 or 3 as well

 

Closers will be interesting. Obviously Rivera gets in in 2019, but after that will the writers allow a slippery slope of lesser closers? They haven't voted in Hoffman. Will they see Pappelbon, Madson, Kimbrel, etc as any better?

 

(The thought of Pappelbon in the HOF makes me nauseous)

Edited August 28, 2017 by G-Snarls

[Terminator]

I think Ichiro and Molina are basically shoe-ins. Molina is going to get credit for things that don't how up in the WARz.

 

Agree on Molina. Like Havok said, he's probably worse than a lot of other Catchers but he has one of those stupid "winning player" auras that some guys are able to obtain. In his case I think it's because ESPN jerks off to him so much. Pedroia has that aura as well and I think he gets in too just like David Ortiz for the same reasons.

[Terminator]

Bumgarner could get in. Has work to do though.

[Orgfiller]

Beltran should/probably will get in. 67 fWAR with homers, steals, Gold Gloves and he'll get the switch-hitter boost. Excellent player.

[BTS]

Agree on Molina. Like Havok said, he's probably worse than a lot of other Catchers but he has one of those stupid "winning player" auras that some guys are able to obtain. In his case I think it's because ESPN jerks off to him so much. Pedroia has that aura as well and I think he gets in too just like David Ortiz for the same reasons.

 

I think I'm more willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Molina than to Pedroia and Ortiz. With the hitters, the whole 'he's a winner' argument is not one I buy. I think the argument is a bit different for Molina - handling a pitching staff seems like a more concrete and observable quality than being a 'winner'.

[G-Snarls]

I think Ichiro and Molina are basically shoe-ins. Molina is going to get credit for things that don't how up in the WARz.

 

I think you're right

 

And baseball writers love that sort of fluff. Er, I mean *stuff*

[G-Snarls]

Bumgarner could get in. Has work to do though.

 

I count 6 good to very good seasons and of course his legendary post season

 

Not sure that's enough if he fizzles out now. Hopefully he doesn't.

[mphenhef]

Ichiro is a first ballot no doubt hall of famer to me.

[Terminator]

I count 6 good to very good seasons and of course his legendary post season

 

Not sure that's enough if he fizzles out now. Hopefully he doesn't.

 

He just turned 28 so he should have something left in the tank. His basic stats will look better than the advanced stats due to that ballpark and all the WS and postseason runs he's already had will help too. But you're right, just looking at his WAR and he hasn't been THAT good.

[G-Snarls]

My updated list after some good feedback:

 

Current players who have already done enough to make the HOF even if they retired today:

 

Miguel Cabrera

Adrian Beltre

Albert Pujols

Ichiro

 

Current players who have done enough to MAYBE make the HOF if they retired today. (Will get consideration but not shoo-ins)

 

Yadier Molina

Justin Verlander

Carlos Beltran

 

Current mid-career players who will likely make the HOF with a few more good years:

 

Joey Votto

Clayton Kershaw

Paul Goldshmidt

Chris Sale (???)

Robinson Cano

Buster Posey

 

Current younger players who clearly have the talent for a HOF career but are too early in their careers to know if they'll keep it up long enough

 

Mike Trout

Bryce Harper

Giancarlo Stanton

 

I'm gonna say no to Ortiz, Pedroia and Bumgarner who are all very good but not quite HOF caliber AFAIC

 

I also don't buy any of the current closers as *likely* hall of famers. Some are very good but none have been elite for the majority of their careers and most seem to have great stretches followed by a fall from grace.

[The Cats Ass]

Been thinking about this lately, trying to categorize guys into HOF credentials. Thoughts?

 

Current players who have already done enough to make the HOF even if they retired today:

 

Miguel Cabrera

Adrian Beltre

Albert Pujols

 

Current players who have done enough to MAYBE make the HOF if they retired today. (Will get consideration but not shoo-ins)

 

Ichiro

Yadier Molina

Justin Verlander

 

Current mid-career players who will likely make the HOF with a few more good years:

 

Joey Votto

Clayton Kershaw

Paul Goldshmidt

Chris Sale (???)

 

Current younger players who clearly have the talent for a HOF career but are too early in their careers to know if they'll keep it up long enough

 

Mike Trout

Bryce Harper

Giancarlo Stanton

 

If Trout were to suffer a career ending injury and was unable to step on the field again does he make it in right now? I think they would put him in.

[G-Snarls]

If Trout were to suffer a career ending injury and was unable to step on the field again does he make it in right now? I think they would put him in.

 

They might

 

GOAT level performance from the minute he arrived in the majors for 5 solid years

 

LOL 53 WAR at age 26

 

That's just..........

[The Cats Ass]

 

I'm gonna say no to Ortiz, Pedroia and Bumgarner who are all very good but not quite HOF caliber AFAIC

 

I also don't buy any of the current closers as *likely* hall of famers. Some are very good but none have been elite for the majority of their careers and most seem to have great stretches followed by a fall from grace.

 

Kenley Jansen? How can he not be suggested for a closer.

[The Cats Ass]

They might

 

GOAT level performance from the minute he arrived in the majors for 5 solid years

 

LOL 53 WAR at age 26

 

That's just..........

 

It's something to look at the list and see the names he's already passed

[Orgfiller]

You also missed Manny Machado among the younger players. Trout makes everyone look bad in comparison, but Harper and Machado are 23 and 29 respectively in career WAR through age 24. Those guys are absurdly talented and they're being overlooked because of how good Trout is.

[Brownie19]

Beltran should/probably will get in. 67 fWAR with homers, steals, Gold Gloves and he'll get the switch-hitter boost. Excellent player.

 

Why do players get a "switch hit" boost?

[Brownie19]

Agree on Molina. Like Havok said, he's probably worse than a lot of other Catchers but he has one of those stupid "winning player" auras that some guys are able to obtain. In his case I think it's because ESPN jerks off to him so much. Pedroia has that aura as well and I think he gets in too just like David Ortiz for the same reasons.

 

Funny thing is - Martin's always been known as a "winner" and has stats to back that up (how many playoff appearances now on 4 different teams?). Molina's probably a better defensive catcher, but Martin isn't far behind. The wristy's that ESPN's given Molina over the year will undoubtedly be one of the main reasons why Molina will get in on the first ballot, but Martin won't. That's f***ing sad.

 

Posey will though. He's miles ahead of Molina as a player.

[Orgfiller]

Why do players get a "switch hit" boost?

I could very well be talking out of my ass here, but I think generally switch-hitters get more praise than say, an equally good hitter from only one side. This is due to a couple of reasons as I see it: 1) it's hard enough to hit major league pitching effectively from one side, so it's doubly as impressive to be able to do it from both, and 2) they always have the platoon advantage, i.e. you can't really bring in a righty/lefty specialist to face them, even though certain switch hitters do have different splits, though if they're good enough those tend to be less significant than a single-sided batter. So in the grand scheme of things, when comparing a switch hitter to their single sided counterparts, all else being equal, the former gets slightly more praise/would be preferred.

[Terminator]

Why do players get a "switch hit" boost?

 

Because these dinosaur voters think it's an added talent (it is) that makes him a better overall candidate (it doesn't because a 120 wRC+ from a lefty, righty or switch hitter should be treated the same). Since switch-hitting is rare he's probably at the top of the leaderboards for switch-hitters too.

[Bobthe4th]

My updated list after some good feedback:

 

Current players who have already done enough to make the HOF even if they retired today:

 

Miguel Cabrera

Adrian Beltre

Albert Pujols

Ichiro

 

Current players who have done enough to MAYBE make the HOF if they retired today. (Will get consideration but not shoo-ins)

 

Yadier Molina

Justin Verlander

Carlos Beltran

 

Current mid-career players who will likely make the HOF with a few more good years:

 

Joey Votto

Clayton Kershaw

Paul Goldshmidt

Chris Sale (???)

Robinson Cano

Buster Posey

 

Current younger players who clearly have the talent for a HOF career but are too early in their careers to know if they'll keep it up long enough

 

Mike Trout

Bryce Harper

Giancarlo Stanton

 

I'm gonna say no to Ortiz, Pedroia and Bumgarner who are all very good but not quite HOF caliber AFAIC

 

I also don't buy any of the current closers as *likely* hall of famers. Some are very good but none have been elite for the majority of their careers and most seem to have great stretches followed by a fall from grace.

 

Good to see you moved Ichiro - he's a first ballot no question.

 

I'd add Longoria to your need a few more seasons category.

 

Although he's no longer a current player - does A-Rod get in? I think he does eventually (obv on talent alone he should).

[Bobthe4th]

There's also a few borderline players that might get in with a bit of luck - David Price, Chase Utley, Zack Greinke etc

[Captain Adama]

There's also a few borderline players that might get in with a bit of luck - David Price, Chase Utley, Zack Greinke etc

 

Utley has the merits to get in. His 2005-2009 was an absolutely insane peak. He has the playoff success as well. A tru winnar.

[Bobthe4th]

Utley has the merits to get in. His 2005-2009 was an absolutely insane peak. He has the playoff success as well. A tru winnar.

 

Yeah he's the kind of player who can make it in at the 8th or 9th time of trying when there's a weak year. Probably not quite enough on stats alone, but the "story" helps him.

[G-Snarls]

You also missed Manny Machado among the younger players. Trout makes everyone look bad in comparison, but Harper and Machado are 23 and 29 respectively in career WAR through age 24. Those guys are absurdly talented and they're being overlooked because of how good Trout is.

 

Damn right

 

Machado is so damn good but...

 

Why do I not trust him yo hold up like other superstars??

[Brownie19]

I could very well be talking out of my ass here, but I think generally switch-hitters get more praise than say, an equally good hitter from only one side. This is due to a couple of reasons as I see it: 1) it's hard enough to hit major league pitching effectively from one side, so it's doubly as impressive to be able to do it from both, and 2) they always have the platoon advantage, i.e. you can't really bring in a righty/lefty specialist to face them, even though certain switch hitters do have different splits, though if they're good enough those tend to be less significant than a single-sided batter. So in the grand scheme of things, when comparing a switch hitter to their single sided counterparts, all else being equal, the former gets slightly more praise/would be preferred.

 

Because these dinosaur voters think it's an added talent (it is) that makes him a better overall candidate (it doesn't because a 120 wRC+ from a lefty, righty or switch hitter should be treated the same). Since switch-hitting is rare he's probably at the top of the leaderboards for switch-hitters too.

 

Meh - it's a talent not doubt, but once mastered, the batter reaps the rewards.

 

Results are results for me. If two players have a career wRC+ of 130 and one guy's a switch hitter while the other is a right handed hitter - I considered them equal hitters.

[Orgfiller]

Damn right

 

Machado is so damn good but...

 

Why do I not trust him yo hold up like other superstars??

It could be the early knee injuries if anything, but since he rebounded for back to back 6+ win seasons. He's an elite defender and officially made the transition from good doubles hitter to tapping into his power with consistency a couple of seasons ago. He may be a douche but it hasn't affected his play to date and with his tools, barring any serious injuries he's very much on track for a HoF career.

[Orgfiller]

A somewhat darkhorse candidate is Andrew McCutchen. Insane peak as a top 3 player in the game, and with his resurgence this year as a good - not elite as he was a few years back - hitter, if he finishes out strong he could have a chance. Will be 31 to start next season.

[Terminator]

Meh - it's a talent not doubt, but once mastered, the batter reaps the rewards.

 

Results are results for me. If two players have a career wRC+ of 130 and one guy's a switch hitter while the other is a right handed hitter - I considered them equal hitters.

 

That's exactly what I said.

[Terminator]

I'm gonna say no to Ortiz, Pedroia and Bumgarner who are all very good but not quite HOF caliber AFAIC

 

I also don't buy any of the current closers as *likely* hall of famers. Some are very good but none have been elite for the majority of their careers and most seem to have great stretches followed by a fall from grace.

 

I'll bet my left nut that Pedroia (should he add a few more productive seasons as I expect he might) and Ortiz get in. Pedroia has a ton of hardware- RoY, Gold Gloves, MVP and World Series rings. Ortiz has an extra WS ring and is loved. Both play for a storied franchise. Writers love guys like these two.

 

Bumgarner is a little bit younger than Sale so not a bad idea to just compare the two. Bumgarner had the same amount of WAR before this year but Bumgarner has 3 World Series rings and all sorts of postseason heroics.