Path to the playoffs for every AL East team (ESPN Insider Subscriber Needed)

[JaysFan4Ever]

I haven't seen it posted, or I missed it, and I'm too cheap to pay for the subscription, so I was wondering if anyone had it, and could fill us in on what this says. I'm curious about the article.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/18318206/al-east-path-playoffs-every-team

[RealAccountant]

Unless the Redsox suffer a major injury or two I think we are ultimately in the running for a WC spot.

 

I don't think at this point we are competing for a division

[Maine Jays]

Unless the Redsox suffer a major injury or two I think we are ultimately in the running for a WC spot.

 

I don't think at this point we are competing for a division

 

Yeah, because injuries never happen and the best team on paper always wins.

 

Seriously, though, if Sale blows out his arm in spring training, Price pitches the way he did in the first half, and Porcello looks like the 2015, how well do you like their chances?

 

Also, they replaced Ortiz with Mitch Moreland. I dare you to say that out loud a couple of times without laughing.

 

Counting on a Panda comeback.

 

An aging Pedroia repeating.

 

JJB maintaining.

 

The ass end of their pen seems alright, but no better than ours in the early innings.

[intentional wok]

Yeah, because injuries never happen and the best team on paper always wins.

 

Seriously, though, if Sale blows out his arm in spring training, Price pitches the way he did in the first half, and Porcello looks like the 2015, how well do you like their chances?

 

Also, they replaced Ortiz with Mitch Moreland. I dare you to say that out loud a couple of times without laughing.

 

Counting on a Panda comeback.

 

An aging Pedroia repeating.

 

JJB maintaining.

 

The ass end of their pen seems alright, but no better than ours in the early innings.

 

Just as many setbacks are possible for any team. Donaldson could twist an ankle, Tulo could re-injure something and miss a month, Estrada's spine could slip out of place, who knows. It's pretty unreasonable to not pick the Red Sox for the East barring an epidemic of sprinkler heads. I'd say the Red Sox have a more lenient tipping point than every other team in the East.

[RealAccountant]

Redsox have a lot of depth as well.

[Maine Jays]

Just as many setbacks are possible for any team. Donaldson could twist an ankle, Tulo could re-injure something and miss a month, Estrada's spine could slip out of place, who knows. It's pretty unreasonable to not pick the Red Sox for the East barring an epidemic of sprinkler heads. I'd say the Red Sox have a more lenient tipping point than every other team in the East.

 

I agree with this assessment. My point of contention was with realaccount stating we wouldn't be competing for the division. If we're just going to concede the division the last week of December, why bother pay attention at all? Every year there are teams that look great on paper (us in '13 for instance) that bottom out. I'm not ready to throw my hands up and surrender just yet, especially with $25M left to spend and eight weeks till hitters report.

[4thOFan]

No David Ortiz to build the offense around? Maybe not a problem. FanGraphs projects the Red Sox as the highest-scoring team in the majors. That makes sense given the young core of MVP runner-up Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., plus a full season from Andrew Benintendi

 

But Grant said we'll have a bottom offense without Ortiz?

[Grant77]

But Grant said we'll have a bottom offense without Ortiz?

 

You won't be repeating, that's for damn sure. A drop off of close to 100 runs should be expected.

[Spanky99]

[4thOFan]

You won't be repeating, that's for damn sure. A drop off of close to 100 runs should be expected.

 

That's OK, still projected for the most runs. I expect the Jays to take a step back as well, especially the overperforming rotation.

[RealAccountant]

That's OK, still projected for the most runs. I expect the Jays to take a step back as well, especially the overperforming rotation.

 

Well I don't agree with that. I reckon though Redsox are a good 10 wins better. It would be different it our front office was committing to winning.

[jaysfan2014]

Even Boston media is worried about the lack of depth on the roster:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/28/has-anybody-noticed-how-uncomfortably-thin-the-red-sox-depth-is/

 

If injuries strike, this Red Sox team could face serious difficulties..

[RealAccountant]

Even Boston media is worried about the lack of depth on the roster:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/28/has-anybody-noticed-how-uncomfortably-thin-the-red-sox-depth-is/

 

If injuries strike, this Red Sox team could face serious difficulties..

 

They have the starters the relievers. Really I dont think they need to worry about the offense, that stadium is a bandbox. Even with major injuries they always have a few surprises.

 

I would expect them to have between 95-100 Wins, and I think even if Shatkins comes through we are looking at 85-90 wins

[jaysfan2014]

They have the starters the relievers. Really I dont think they need to worry about the offense, that stadium is a bandbox. Even with major injuries they always have a few surprises.

 

I would expect them to have between 95-100 Wins, and I think even if Shatkins comes through we are looking at 85-90 wins

 

Without Ortiz, it won't matter if the stadium's a bandbox--most teams will pitch around Betts/Bogaerts and possibly HanRam knowing they have no protection, meaning tons of runners LOB. And Moreland is not the answer--Texas fans can tell you that.

[RealAccountant]

Without Ortiz, it won't matter if the stadium's a bandbox--most teams will pitch around Betts/Bogaerts and possibly HanRam knowing they have no protection, meaning tons of runners LOB. And Moreland is not the answer--Texas fans can tell you that.

 

Well what do you think teams will do to the Jays, Donaldson wont be seeing much. Last few years he has had Bautista and EE following, now its going to be Morales and Tulo.

 

I dont think a career .780 OPS guy will be putting the fear into pitchers. If I am an opposing pitcher pitching to the Jays, once I get by Donaldson its a pretty easy workaround. Especially late in games.

[TheHurl]

Without Ortiz, it won't matter if the stadium's a bandbox--most teams will pitch around Betts/Bogaerts and possibly HanRam knowing they have no protection, meaning tons of runners LOB. And Moreland is not the answer--Texas fans can tell you that.

 

Exactly. Teams just have to pitch around Betts, Bogaerts, HanRam, maybe Pedroia, Benintendi and JBJ. Then face Moreland, Panda and Leon. No way they are scoring runs.

[RealAccountant]

If we make the right moves at least we will be in the Wild Card mix which will make for an exciting year, at this point i would be surprised if the Redsox weren't at least two times the favourites we are for the AL East. Just looking at the Baseball Futures, they are the favourites to win the AL at +220, we are in the second tier after Boston and Cleveland, its Houston, Toronto, New York, Texas,

[flafson]

I'm honestly not too hopeful after losing both Bautista and EE, hopefully I'm wrong and Morales and Pearce makes up for those two.

[TheHurl]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/28/has-anybody-noticed-how-uncomfortably-thin-the-red-sox-depth-is/

 

 

That article is fantastic. Pretty much saying sure we have Brock Holt, Vasquez, Lefty Killer Chris Young, Josh Rutledge, with Swihart, Travis, Allen Craig, Deven Marrero, Rusney Castillo, and Bryce Brentz as bounce back candidates...but after that the cupboard is bare. All 50 days before Pitchers and Catchers report.

[jaysfan2014]

Exactly. Teams just have to pitch around Betts, Bogaerts, HanRam, maybe Pedroia, Benintendi and JBJ. Then face Moreland, Panda and Leon. No way they are scoring runs.

 

Benintendi's not a guarantee--despite being a top prospect, he'll have to prove that he can adjust the 2nd time around against MLB pitching, as tape is out on him now, and teams are going to adjust.

 

The biggest concern is the lineup after the 5 spot(assuming Pedroia/Benintendi/Bogaerts/Betts/HanRam)--JBJ was an absolute black hole in the lineup after the All-Star break, Sandoval's uncertain, Moreland is coming off a career worst season offensively (for a full year), and Sandy Leon is a major regression candidate (he's not hitting .300 again-- low .200s is more likely). This isn't going to be as deep an offensive team as 2016--a drop off of 150-200 runs is likely, so the pitching will have to stay healthy and avoid decline.

[jaysfan2014]

That article is fantastic. Pretty much saying sure we have Brock Holt, Vasquez, Lefty Killer Chris Young, Josh Rutledge, with Swihart, Travis, Allen Craig, Deven Marrero, Rusney Castillo, and Bryce Brentz as bounce back candidates...but after that the cupboard is bare. All 50 days before Pitchers and Catchers report.

 

Castillo, Marrero, Craig and Brentz are AAAA guys, Holt is only useful as a reserve--use him regularly and he's not very good. Vazquez is only on the Sox for sure because he's out of options, and Rutledge isn't even guaranteed a spot--if he doesn't make the team, he gets sent back to Colorado (Rule 5 pick).

 

Travis is coming off a torn ACL and is uncertain, Swihart's role is as clear as mud.. is he a C or an OF? Regardless, he's blocked at both positions unless Benintendi implodes in Spring Training or one of the catchers get hurt--and he isn't even a decent catcher.. he makes Matt Wieters look good behind the plate.

[RealAccountant]

Lol Jaysfan2014 has to be more hated here than me

[TheHurl]

I love Jaysfan2014. He's what Grant will become if he ever gets Encephalitis from tick bites.

[jays4life19]

I love Jaysfan2014. He's what Grant will become if he ever gets Encephalitis from tick bites.

 

Lmao.

 

Encephalitis (en-sef-uh-LIE-tis) is inflammation of the brain. Viral infections are the most common cause of the condition.

 

Encephalitis can cause flu-like symptoms, such as a fever or severe headache. It can also cause confused thinking, seizures, or problems with senses or movement. However, many cases of encephalitis result in only mild flu-like symptoms or even no symptoms.

 

 

Severe cases of encephalitis, while relatively rare, can be life-threatening. Because the course of any single case of encephalitis can be unpredictable, it's important to get a timely diagnosis and treatment.

[Spanky99]

I love Jaysfan2014. He's what Grant will become if he ever gets Encephalitis from tick bites.

 

lol

[JaysFan4Ever]

I'm honestly not too hopeful after losing both Bautista and EE, hopefully I'm wrong and Morales and Pearce makes up for those two.

 

Morales is certainly not EE, and not even Bautista minus last year, but if he can put up the numbers he has during the past two years, it will help make up for the loss of one of them. At home games, he might be able to turn some more homers since the ball carries more, and the parks in the AL East aren't as big as some he's played in. I'm just hoping he can at least do what he did in KC the past two years.

 

I'm hoping Pearce can stay healthy and take advantage of getting the playing time he'll get with the Jays. I doubt the Peace/Smoak platoon makes up for one of them, but could add some pop, and Pearce might hit some more homers, if healthy, and playing in TO. Worse case he might platoon with Tallez at some point if Smoak can't handle it.

 

I just hope they can go out and acquire a solid bat for the OF. I wouldn't mind the team changing from a more homer happy team, to an all around, multi approach team, but we'll need some more help than what's on the roster right now. We saw what happened when relying on the homer heavy approached costed us against Cleveland, and at some stretches during the year. Even if they get a guy who can hit for some power in the OF, having a bit more balance, with moving guys over, scoring earlier, maybe adding a base stealer, or letting some guys steal, will help make up for it. Runs are runs no matter how they're scored, but you have to score them with what you have, and adjust to how the other team is pitching you.

 

I want to see the 3rd consecutive year in the ALCS and finally winning it, but I'm not going to hold my breath unless they add to what we have. Some depth would be nice in some places too. I think it's just how the market is playing out right now. Big names, many other people who you'd think would have been signed, are still unsigned, so something will give now that it's January and ST is coming closer.

[TwistedLogic]

I'm honestly not too hopeful after losing both Bautista and EE, hopefully I'm wrong and Morales and Pearce makes up for those two.

 

Morales and Pearce aren't supposed to make up for Edwin and Bautista, they're meant to make up for Edwin and Michael Saunders. I don't think it's really that far-fetched at all to expect Morales and Pearce to collectively outperform Edwin and Saunders in 2017. Unless the team is dumb enough to platoon Pearce with someone whose better platoon split is still worse than Pearce's worse platoon split, Pearce could easily break his career high in games played and post 2 wins more than Saunders alone. Too much has been made of the potential downgrade of Edwin to Morales and not much has been made of how much of an upgrade Pearce is to Saunders in every facet of the game.

 

The guy who is supposed to replace Bautista isn't on the team yet, and that guy might still be Bautista himself.

[Bobthe4th]

Morales and Pearce aren't supposed to make up for Edwin and Bautista, they're meant to make up for Edwin and Michael Saunders. I don't think it's really that far-fetched at all to expect Morales and Pearce to collectively outperform Edwin and Saunders in 2017. Unless the team is dumb enough to platoon Pearce with someone whose better platoon split is still worse than Pearce's worse platoon split, Pearce could easily break his career high in games played and post 2 wins more than Saunders alone. Too much has been made of the potential downgrade of Edwin to Morales and not much has been made of how much of an upgrade Pearce is to Saunders in every facet of the game.

 

The guy who is supposed to replace Bautista isn't on the team yet, and that guy might still be Bautista himself.

 

This is spot on.

 

Pearce and Morales should be replacing Smoak and EE, but that'll only happen if we sign a RF AND a LF and get rid of Smoak.

 

Unless that happens Pearce effectively replaces Saunders, (and also plays 1B) who after the all star break was every bit as bad as Smoak.

[Brownie19]

It's funny how people forget Pearce's wRC+ was the same as EE's last year.

[Brownie19]

I'm amazed at how bad of a base runner Pedroia's become. Is the "Travis" listed Sam Travis? Is that who we're talking about?