Should Osuna Start in 2017?

[BTS]

Yeah and more importantly, the value gain from taking that risk just isn't there. I used to be all over that. I thought the Reds were dumb for not starting Chapman. I thought the Jays were really dumb when they moved two of their top starting prospects to the MLB bullpen (Osuna and Castro). Even last off-season, I wanted Storen to take over the closer's job and Osuna to be stretched but I'm pretty much done with that line of thinking. It's all based on the premise that relievers have less value than starters and of course strictly speaking that's true by your standard value metrics but that might be a bit misleading. One of the fundamental characteristics of WAR is that it is context neutral and by being context neutral, it has revolutionized the way baseball players are considered. For ages, context dependent stats like runs, RBIs and pitcher wins were overvalued. WAR has brought balance by acknowledging that the opportunities to pad those context dependent stats are not evenly distributed. That's all fine and sensible but when it comes to relievers, there's an argument to be made that you SHOULDN'T look at context neutral stats because the context in which a reliever operates is deliberately manipulated. Top relievers may not throw as many innings as starters but their inning are distributed in a way that maximizes their impact because they nearly always pitch in high leverage situations. That's how Roberto Osuana had a higher wpa (win probability added) than every Toronto starting pitcher not named Sanchez. By that measure, Osuna is hardly being wasted in the bullpen. In fact, you could argue the opposite that he's having more impact than he would if he were say a number 3 starter or something like that. People might not agree on the degree of risk involved in turning Osuna into a starter. We'll never know for sure unless it's actually tried but I think nearly everyone would acknowledge that there's at least SOME risk to it if for no other reason than his injury history. By turning Osuna into a high leverage reliever, the Jays have isolated themselves from that risk without truly limiting his impact on the game. The more I think about it, the more I believe that the way the Jays are using him now is optimal.

 

Great post. If he was stretched out and stayed healthy, his next two seasons look like maybe 110 then 140 innings? I think that's almost certainly less valuable than 75 high leverage relief innings. Maybe that flips in his last two years of team control, if he stays healthy. Is the minimal reward worth the risk? I don't think so.

[Grant77]

I'm surprised at the number of people who believe that injury risk is mitigated in a high usage, high stress bullpen role.

 

This may be true, but it doesn't seem obvious and I haven't seen any evidence.

[BTS]

I'm surprised at the number of people who believe that injury risk is mitigated in a high usage, high stress bullpen role.

 

This may be true, but it doesn't seem obvious and I haven't seen any evidence.

 

It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.

[KingKat]

It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.

 

Yeah less stress on the arm just seems intuitively better but I could see that in some specific cases the layoff between outings is more beneficial than the reduction in total work load.

[Orgfiller]

It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.

 

Throwing a max of 60 pitches or around 3 innings spread out over three days (and mind you most relievers don't pitch 3 in a row) versus doing it all at once, adding anywhere from 20-40 more pitches in a single start. Seems pretty self-explanatory.

[BTS]

Throwing a max of 60 pitches or around 3 innings spread out over three days (and mind you most relievers don't pitch 3 in a row) versus doing it all at once, adding anywhere from 20-40 more pitches in a single start. Seems pretty self-explanatory.

 

Top relievers throw about 1000 pitches, and top starters throw about 3000, give or take 100 or 200. It would take a pretty amazing study to convince me that throwing an extra 2000 pitcher per year does not increase a pitcher's risk of injury.

[KingKat]

Top relievers throw about 1000 pitches, and top starters throw about 3000, give or take 100 or 200. It would take a pretty amazing study to convince me that throwing an extra 2000 pitcher per year does not increase a pitcher's risk of injury.

 

It really doesn't make sense. Like I said before, I could only see it applying to very specific cases and even then I would be very skeptical that someone who can't recover quickly enough from a short outing to be a reliever wouldn't also have recovery issues as a starter with a greater workload.

[Grant77]

Is max effort a factor? Warm up pitches? None of your arguments mentioned that. Perhaps it's a poor analogy, but sprinters get more injuries than marathon runners.

 

In the absence of facts, I'm still skeptical. Injuries seem to occur just as frequently for relievers.

[BTS]

Is max effort a factor? Warm up pitches? None of your arguments mentioned that. Perhaps it's a poor analogy, but sprinters get more injuries than marathon runners.

 

In the absence of facts, I'm still skeptical. Injuries seem to occur just as frequently for relievers.

 

It would be tough to study, because even if someone found that they suffer arm/shoulder injuries at about the same rate, you have to consider that teams have been moving bad mechanics pitchers with perceived high injury risk to the pen, while letting the big bodied guys with clean mechanics stay in the rotation. If teams are actually good at assessing injury risk, and I have no idea if they are, equal rates of injury between the pen and rotation might actually be evidence that the bullpen helps pitchers stay healthy.

[Grant77]

It would be tough to study, because even if someone found that they suffer arm/shoulder injuries at about the same rate, you have to consider that teams have been moving bad mechanics pitchers with perceived high injury risk to the pen, while letting the big bodied guys with clean mechanics stay in the rotation. If teams are actually good at assessing injury risk, and I have no idea if they are, equal rates of injury between the pen and rotation might actually be evidence that the bullpen helps pitchers stay healthy.

 

Those are all fair points. We really just don't know enough to make any concrete conclusions. Sporadic bursts of maximum intensity, high stress pitching will create their own set of unique injury problems in my opinion.

 

The Jays have their own information and might know the answers, but I wouldn't let my ignorance stand in the way of making Osuna a starter if I had to make the decision. For the record, I probably wouldn't do it anyways, but it's nice to have options.

[Laika]

It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.

 

But pitching on back to back days, sometimes three days in a row, and pitching with shorter warm up time --> all linked to injury scientifically.

[Krylian]

How about getting rid of starters altogether. Have a bunch of relievers throwing 2-3 innings every 2-3 days. No one goes more than once through an order in a game.

[Olerud363]

How about getting rid of starters altogether. Have a bunch of relievers throwing 2-3 innings every 2-3 days. No one goes more than once through an order in a game.

 

I think this could be done incrementally. First just reduce the starters limitis slighty,

 

Use relievers just a little more, instead of starter 6, 1,1,1, starter 51/3, 1-1/3, 1-1/3, 1... little difference... go more extreme the next year if things look to be working. Basically year 1 kind of run it like Francona just did.

 

Year 2, maybe go more extreme, and go to a four man with starters on an 80 pitch limit or something.... and start to morph 5th guy, and second level relieves into long men

[L54]

This will never happen. MLBPA won't allow it nor will you ever sign a free agent or a draft pick.

[Brownie19]

This will never happen. MLBPA won't allow it nor will you ever sign a free agent or a draft pick.

 

Are you seriously one of those guys who brings those massive gloves to the ball park? WTF man.

[AdamGreenwood]

This conversation surprises me.

 

Several years ago, there was a debate about a young reliever turned starter by the name of Brandon Morrow.

Everyone agreed immediately that turning him into a starter was the right move, because a starter gets more WAR than a reliever.

There was near-unanimous agreement, and that was the end of the conversation.

 

Looks like the forum has evolved.

[BTS]

This conversation surprises me.

 

Several years ago, there was a debate about a young reliever turned starter by the name of Brandon Morrow.

Everyone agreed immediately that turning him into a starter was the right move, because a starter gets more WAR than a reliever.

There was near-unanimous agreement, and that was the end of the conversation.

 

Looks like the forum has evolved.

 

You know what's crazy? Those Morrow debates started 7 years ago. And yeah, in hindsight Toronto probably would have extracted more value from Morrow as a high leverage reliever.

[Laika]

You know what's crazy? Those Morrow debates started 7 years ago. And yeah, in hindsight Toronto probably would have extracted more value from Morrow as a high leverage reliever.

 

lmao Morrow was like a 3 WAR starter for the Jays.

[Grant77]

You know what's crazy? Those Morrow debates started 7 years ago. And yeah, in hindsight Toronto probably would have extracted more value from Morrow as a high leverage reliever.

 

I don't agree with this. Morrow put up 9.2 WAR over a 3 year span as a starter.

[Laika]

I don't agree with this. Morrow put up 9.2 WAR over a 3 year span as a starter.

 

Grant, we are so alike, yet so different.

 

How is this so? Which one of us is the evil one?

[BTS]

lmao Morrow was like a 3 WAR starter for the Jays.

 

Looking at it now, he averaged about 2 fWAR and 1 RA/9 WAR/year here. Depending on how much of that you attribute to bad luck he was either a solid starter or a back end guy. Any reason to think a starter with contact management problems would manage that better in relief?

[Grant77]

Looking at it now, he averaged about 2 fWAR and 1 RA/9 WAR/year here. Depending on how much of that you attribute to bad luck he was either a solid starter or a back end guy. Any reason to think a starter with contact management problems would manage that better in relief?

 

You're averaging 3 very good full seasons with his final 2 where he had 10 and 6 starts in order to get a lower number. He was a 3+ WAR starter with injury problems.

 

I'm skeptical that relief would make him considerably more healthy and I'm extremely skeptical that he'd put up that kind of value in the 'pen.

[BTS]

You're averaging 3 very good full seasons with his final 2 where he had 10 and 6 starts in order to get a lower number. He was a 3+ WAR starter with injury problems.

 

I'm skeptical that relief wouldakr him considerably more healthy and I'm extremely skeptical that he'd put up that kind of value in the 'pen.

 

You'd have to think that he would have been less prone to injury in the pen to buy the argument. I'm pretty comfortable saying Morrow would have been worth close to two wins a year in high leverage relief.

[Grant77]

You'd have to think that he would have been less prone to injury in the pen to buy the argument. I'm pretty comfortable saying Morrow would have been worth close to two wins a year in high leverage relief.

 

He undoubtedly had the ability, but predicting a performance that would make him a top 10 reliever in the game is too optimistic for me.

[BTS]

He undoubtedly had the ability, but predicting a performance that would make him a top 10 reliever in the game is too optimistic for me.

 

I didn't say 2-WAR reliever.

[Grant77]

I didn't say 2-WAR reliever.

 

Am I to infer that you think WPA is a better way to evaluate relievers? Cy Britton!

[DonnieBaseball]

It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.

 

I'll take any empirical evidence you have, but you can keep your intuition. Throwing 100 pitches 5-6 times a month compared to someone throwing 20ish pitches per outing (not counting the games they dial it up, sit back down, dial it up again, etc.) and throwing 15+ times per month, gives them less rest between outings.

 

For the people who said he'd only throw maybe 110 innings next year: We just watched Sanchez go from 92.1 innings to 192 in one season. Would Osuna go from 74 to 174? Not likely. But it still means he could throw 120 in the pen, and use him for 20-30 more innings. And lol at going from 110 innings one season to 140. More like 120-180 at least.

[BTS]

Am I to infer that you think WPA is a better way to evaluate relievers? Cy Britton!

 

Not necessarily, but I do think they're undervalued by fWAR for two reasons: they tend to have ERAs lower than their FIPs, and they pitch a lot of high leverage innings.

[burlingtonbandit]

How about getting rid of starters altogether. Have a bunch of relievers throwing 2-3 innings every 2-3 days. No one goes more than once through an order in a game.

 

Only team I could see it working for and might actually do it would be the Rays but they would need to trade Archer. SP love routines so they would hate that setup plus if you have only one club using the strategy the SP on that team lose value league wide in FA and trades.

 

Basically you would need all of baseball to adapt.

[Grant77]

Not necessarily, but I do think they're undervalued by fWAR for two reasons: they tend to have ERAs lower than their FIPs, and they pitch a lot of high leverage innings.

 

I'm still hesitant to assume that Morrow would put up 2+ WPA seasons on a regular basis. Brett Cecil was great this year and put up a negative 2 mark. A lot of it is managerial style and luck in my opinion. I think we made the best decision in making him a starter.