Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[WONDERBAT]

Yeah EE wants to stay but so did Price. Whoever offers the most money is where he is going to go.

 

There seems to be this misconception that Shapiro is the one who is making all the baseball decisions. I don't think people realize he just has final say but its Atkins and the other AGMs shaping the club.

 

 

Right...and Jed Hoyer is the mastermind behind the Cubs success.

[jays4life19]

If anyone wants to place a 50$ wager on the total amount of EE's contract (excluding potential team options). I'll take the under on 90.5 million. Any takers?

[RealAccountant]

Lol Tigers desperate to get rid of Upton already. Pathetic that they signed him to the ridiculous amount and now want a bailout.

 

That is a team that is going to go downhill fast and need to shed payroll. Also saw Oakland's outlook which is horrible

 

How many legit options are there for EE. Wouldn't surprise me if there were only 2-3 legit fits. Plus Trumbo and Napoli in the market.

 

95 Mil. More like 4/80 at the most and that is the best case scenario

[jaysblue]

If anyone wants to place a 50$ wager on the total amount of EE's contract (excluding potential team options). I'll take the under on 90.5 million. Any takers?

 

Yeah I say under. Tough seeing him get a 5 year deal unless a team really wants him and contracts get pretty ridiculous this offseason. I say he gets 4 years/$85 million.

[Jonn]

Weren't you the one that said Cherington was in charge of the minor leagues too? That was a day after Atkins said the exact opposite.

 

Maybe you should quit stating things as fact when you really have no clue.

 

[jays4life19]

Yeah I say under. Tough seeing him get a 5 year deal unless a team really wants him and contracts get pretty ridiculous this offseason. I say he gets 4 years/$85 million.

 

Yeah I'm thinking 4/80 or 5/90.

[fatcowxlive]

As good as Chapman is, I can't stomach handing out over a $100 million contract to a reliever.

 

It's because of BJ Ryan isn't it?

[jaysblue]

It's because of BJ Ryan isn't it?

 

BJ Ryan was a bargain back in 2006 when you think of it in contrast to what elite relievers like Chapman or Jansen on today's market could demand lol.

 

No, basically because relievers are volatile and that you can build bullpens on the cheap by finding guys in your system who failed as starters (e.g. Cecil, Betances, Phelps, Hand, Blanton, Colome etc.), young arms with high K/9 rates, or sign cheap veterans or bounce-back candidates on short term deals. I've always held that philosophy. I think 20M can be allocated better on the roster then on just one bullpen arm.

[baubau]

I was prowling around reddit and HF boards, just to see how bad it really was and..

 

- Reddit: "Trade for Yelich! Trade all the Stromaz"

- HFBoards: "Trade for Eaton, trade for Votto, Sign Fowler"

 

 

- Here: "Man, Holliday would be amazing sign, maybe Pearce. Thames would be a good flyer"

[jaysblue]

Even Andrew Miller was a failed starter back with the Tigers and the Marlins. The Red Sox took a flier on him, stuck him in the BP and he displayed improved K/9 and BB/9 rates which lead him to being used in higher leverage situations, and now all of a sudden he's one of the best relievers in the game.

[Abomination]

Even Andrew Miller was a failed starter back with the Tigers and the Marlins. The Red Sox took a flier on him, stuck him in the BP and he displayed improved K/9 and BB/9 rates which lead him to being used in higher leverage situations, and now all of a sudden he's one of the best relievers in the game.

 

The Red Sox might have a right handed version of Miller in Joe Kelly too.

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

Is Thames coming back to the MLB in 2017? And i know his numbers were amazing in Korea but he could be dog s*** in the majors. Do you guys really want to sign him?

[jays4life19]

Is Thames coming back to the MLB in 2017? And i know his numbers were amazing in Korea but he could be dog s*** in the majors. Do you guys really want to sign him?

 

On a cheap one year deal? Sure, low risk and has some upside.

[polar bear]

Yeah EE wants to stay but so did Price. Whoever offers the most money is where he is going to go.

 

There seems to be this misconception that Shapiro is the one who is making all the baseball decisions. I don't think people realize he just has final say but its Atkins and the other AGMs shaping the club.

 

Where did you hear that Price wanted to stay?every media outlet(if you trust them)had him going to

the highest bidder.There was no chance of him staying,as by all accounts Jays never made him an offer.

[jaysblue]

I think there's a better chance that EE stays in contrast to David Price last offseason for a number of reasons. EE won't demand a 7-8 year deal like Price was expected to get. I'm sure Shapiro/Atkins have a similar philosophy to Beeston/AA when it comes to handing out deals longer then 5 years. Secondly, EE seems like the guy who prefers to be in a place he's comfortable in, so Toronto definitely has that working for them if they send him a strong offer. He's used to the city, ballpark, clubhouse, fans etc. and he knows that the Blue Jays are close to getting to a World Series. Lastly, the market for EE won't be as large as it was for Price last offseason. EE is probably the top bat yes, though Trumbo (whose younger) and Napoli are FA's as well. I could see an AL team feel more comfortable going 4-5 years on EE versus an NL team.

 

Overall, at the end of the day if a team comes calling and offers 5 years for $120 million etc., EE is most definitely gone. If his market is in the 4 year range/$80-90 million, I think the Blue Jays can be competitive in trying to resign him if they're willing to go 4 years instead of 3.

[Governator]

If anyone wants to place a 50$ wager on the total amount of EE's contract (excluding potential team options). I'll take the under on 90.5 million. Any takers?

 

Would you do 85.5?

[Jonn]

The EE and David Price comparison was really really dumb

[metafour]

I think there's a better chance that EE stays in contrast to David Price last offseason for a number of reasons. EE won't demand a 7-8 year deal like Price was expected to get. I'm sure Shapiro/Atkins have a similar philosophy to Beeston/AA when it comes to handing out deals longer then 5 years. Secondly, EE seems like the guy who prefers to be in a place he's comfortable in, so Toronto definitely has that working for them if they send him a strong offer. He's used to the city, ballpark, clubhouse, fans etc. and he knows that the Blue Jays are close to getting to a World Series. Lastly, the market for EE won't be as large as it was for Price last offseason. EE is probably the top bat yes, though Trumbo (whose younger) and Napoli are FA's as well. I could see an AL team feel more comfortable going 4-5 years on EE versus an NL team.

 

Overall, at the end of the day if a team comes calling and offers 5 years for $120 million etc., EE is most definitely gone. If his market is in the 4 year range/$80-90 million, I think the Blue Jays can be competitive in trying to resign him if they're willing to go 4 years instead of 3.

 

Shapiro was one of the first execs in baseball to realize that handing out long term contracts to old and declining players (ie: paying premium for past performance that is unlikely to be replicated) is a stupid idea. While EE isn't in a Price-like situation; the fact that he's a 34 year old hitter looking for a 4-5 year contract is automatically going to make him an unlikely choice from Shapiro's perspective

[Grant77]

Shapiro was one of the first execs in baseball to realize that handing out long term contracts to old and declining players (ie: paying premium for past performance that is unlikely to be replicated) is a stupid idea. While EE isn't in a Price-like situation; the fact that he's a 34 year old hitter looking for a 4-5 year contract is automatically going to make him an unlikely choice from Shapiro's perspective

 

Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn say hi.

[Frenchsoup]

I think there's a better chance that EE stays in contrast to David Price last offseason for a number of reasons. EE won't demand a 7-8 year deal like Price was expected to get. I'm sure Shapiro/Atkins have a similar philosophy to Beeston/AA when it comes to handing out deals longer then 5 years. Secondly, EE seems like the guy who prefers to be in a place he's comfortable in, so Toronto definitely has that working for them if they send him a strong offer. He's used to the city, ballpark, clubhouse, fans etc. and he knows that the Blue Jays are close to getting to a World Series. Lastly, the market for EE won't be as large as it was for Price last offseason. EE is probably the top bat yes, though Trumbo (whose younger) and Napoli are FA's as well. I could see an AL team feel more comfortable going 4-5 years on EE versus an NL team.

 

Overall, at the end of the day if a team comes calling and offers 5 years for $120 million etc., EE is most definitely gone. If his market is in the 4 year range/$80-90 million, I think the Blue Jays can be competitive in trying to resign him if they're willing to go 4 years instead of 3.

 

I like all your points except we know Boston will give him 100 million..can everyone agree on that?

[metafour]

Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn say hi.

 

You might want to look at the ages and contract lengths of Bourn and Swisher, LOL. Bourn was 30 years old when he signed a 4 year deal. That is a bit different than 34 year old EE signing a 4-5 year deal that would take him to ages 38/39, now isn't it? Swisher was 32; and neither of those two were guys who were in talks to sign contracts of up to ~$100 million.

[Stangstag]

You might want to look at the ages and contract lengths of Bourn and Swisher, LOL. Bourn was 30 years old when he signed a 4 year deal. That is a bit different than 34 year old EE signing a 4-5 year deal that would take him to ages 38/39, now isn't it? Swisher was 32; and neither of those two were guys who were in talks to sign contracts of up to ~$100 million.

 

And they were actually both good signings (maybe Bourn was a slight overpay) at the time, they just both happened to fall off a cliff.

[Johnnyboy09]

So what could we get from Stroman (if they decide to trade him)?

[Grant77]

You might want to look at the ages and contract lengths of Bourn and Swisher, LOL. Bourn was 30 years old when he signed a 4 year deal. That is a bit different than 34 year old EE signing a 4-5 year deal that would take him to ages 38/39, now isn't it? Swisher was 32; and neither of those two were guys who were in talks to sign contracts of up to ~$100 million.

 

I know how old they were. Signing 30 something player to a big contract is clearly something that he is willing to do. Two years in age between Swisher and EE doesn't change that.

[metafour]

So what could we get from Stroman (if they decide to trade him)?

 

Why would they trade Stroman (one of only two young, cheap, controllable starters in the staff)? THat makes no sense for a team that should be looking to get YOUNGER. If you want to move a starter, you sell high on someone like Happ who is 34 years old, or Estrada who only has a year left on his contract.

[Abomination]

I know how old they were. Signing 30 something player to a big contract is clearly something that he is willing to do. Two years in age between Swisher and EE doesn't change that.

 

He could be twice bitten, three times shy too...

 

On the other hand, I'm not sure Edwin's skill set will decline the same as other players.

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

Herrerea (Phillies OF) would be an amazing pickup , but a pipe dream and would cost a lot

[jays4life19]

I like all your points except we know Boston will give him 100 million..can everyone agree on that?

 

Nope. He's not getting 100 million and I doubt Boston will be that interested.

[metafour]

I know how old they were. Signing 30 something player to a big contract is clearly something that he is willing to do. Two years in age between Swisher and EE doesn't change that.

 

It changes everything, are you serious? Shapiro's analysis found that most hitters/sluggers start falling off significantly at age ~35/36, therefore signing 30 year old Bourn until age 34 or 32 year old Swisher until 36 theoretically made sense because it should have limited "dead contract years" to at most a year or so for both players (with more risk on Bourn because he was a speed-driven player). That is drastically different from going long-term at INFLATED MARKET VALUE on a player like EE who is already 34 and could start declining significantly even a year from now...a thought that isn't even that ridiculous considering that he actually regressed metrically THIS season (~4-5% jump in strikeout rate, ~15 point drop in wRC+ relative to his norm the past ~4 seasons). The scary thought on EE is him giving you 5-6 WAR the next two seasons and then being stuck with a DH making ~$40-60+ million over the last 2-3 years of his contract while he gives you ~1-2 WAR per year.

[RealAccountant]

You know what sucks Shapiro could never do what AA did 2 years ago. Acquired an MVP candidate in his prime for pieces