Report: Blue Jays plan to offer Encarnacion long-term deal

[jays4life19]

(Also, this isn't a career year for Edwin despite what the article says. With a little bit of variation, his last five seasons have been nearly identical. He's amazing for that reason, not for a "career year" in 2016.)

 

Indeed. His lowest wRC+ since 2011. K% jumped a bit this year too. Managed to put up around the same fWAR as his last 5 years but that's mostly because he stayed healthy this year.

[Brownie19]

I can't see Shapiro increasing his offer by much considering this was more of a typical year for Edwin and not a career year. Perhaps they were impressed by his work ethic or leadership though. I sure hope something gets done. We have the money and he's the guy we want and need.

 

Actually - EE's hit tool declined this year. wRC+ over the past 5 years has been 150, 146, 151, 150 and 134 (this year). His base running has gone from positive to negative over that period. K% jumped this year. The decline has started. The question is - how rapid will it be?

 

Turns out hitting in front of an elite hitter like Donaldson can camouflage perspective and make a person very rich.

[intentional wok]

Indeed. His lowest wRC+ since 2011. K% jumped a bit this year too. Managed to put up around the same fWAR as his last 5 years but that's mostly because he stayed healthy this year.

 

Everyone Ks seemed to jump this year. No idea why or if any of it is related. It was maddening to watch, though.

 

But yes, this is one of his weaker years according to the nerds. The author of the topic's article is probably just going by conventional stats (130 RBIs) -- because that's the only way to call this a career year for Edwin, and even then it's pretty flimsy.

[BTS]

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

[fatcowxlive]

You would think that the forecast was very positive after 2015, but I don't have a clue.

 

Yeah that's what I would think too. I'm no expert at all, but I was surprised that we lead the AL and brought in over 40k a game. And I haven't counted in the postseason and the record setting TV ratings which is all extra revenue. Maybe Rogers is finally starting to realize that the Jays can be very profitable if they spend like a big market team? Plus they have a guy at the helm with an impressive resume in a small market. They probably want to gun for the division title next year so we can guarantee more home postseason games lol

[fatcowxlive]

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

 

Ehh, we don't know exactly how much they're offering. According to the report we're offering something that won't "blow him away"/can be outbid. Probably Shapiro is going to give him what he thinks is fair market value for him, maybe slightly skewed in Edwin's favour, but if a team really want's to get him they'll probably easily outbid us.

[RealAccountant]

I doubt many people would argue against 3/70 with team options. That 3 years also brings us to the end of Donaldson Tulo Martin windows. Even if he manages to stay at the current level it will ensure a very strong offense over the next 2 years combined with what is already a formidable starting rotation

[BigCecil]

Indeed. His lowest wRC+ since 2011. K% jumped a bit this year too. Managed to put up around the same fWAR as his last 5 years but that's mostly because he stayed healthy this year.

 

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

 

^this. These are the facts. RBIs is not what I want to see this FO pay for. I'm confident this FO would do a reasonable deal based on a defensible valuation matrix and the market. The last thing they should do is get caught up in the emotion of the wild card gm and our playoff run, even if the fans are (including myself).

[Jimcanuck]

Offer 2/$50 with a club option for a 3rd year at $25 or a $5M buyout

 

Overpay a bit, but takes away the risk of a longer term deal

 

This valuation is certainly acceptable if you expect EE to average 3 WAR/yr over the next few

[flafson]

I'm hoping he accepts 4/80, don't see why wouldn't he to be honest. He loves the place and wants to be here, if you get close to his numbers no reason he says no.

Unless of course he thinks he needs to pay a lot of money on trials and such...

[LGBJ29]

I'm hoping he accepts 4/80, don't see why wouldn't he to be honest. He loves the place and wants to be here, if you get close to his numbers no reason he says no.

Unless of course he thinks he needs to pay a lot of money on trials and such...

 

Because teams like the Red Sox will offer a lot more?

[gbill2004]

Offer 2/$50 with a club option for a 3rd year at $25 or a $5M buyout

 

Overpay a bit, but takes away the risk of a longer term deal

 

This valuation is certainly acceptable if you expect EE to average 3 WAR/yr over the next few

 

It'll take a minimum of three years. Likely four.

[G-Snarls]

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

 

I don't think it will take 100M

[G-Snarls]

Report says they offered him 2 years plus options pre season and he turned it down so yes he wants at least 3-4 guaranteed years

[Stangstag]

I'm not sure why everyone keeps saying/implying that not signing Edwin and Jose automatically means the team doesn't want to compete.

 

Umm no. If the front office thinks the money is better spent on younger guys that provide SOME defensive value, then I want them to do that. Everyone talks about losing "fans" if we don't sign Edwin/Jose, but do you know what ACTUALLY loses fans? A s***** old team that can't compete.

 

Edwin and Jose are getting old, and their production could very easily drop off a cliff. I would hope Shatkins' decision hasn't been swayed by playoff performances.

 

The bottom line is this: build a competitive team, and the fans will continue to show up. You don't sign players just for fan service, because the fans will abandon the team quick if those player fail to perform and the team turns to s***.

 

My only issue would be if the front office decreases payroll next year. Letting Edwin/Jose walk doesn't necessarily mean payroll will decrease. People should stop equating the two.

[KingKat]

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

 

Is it still fair to Edwin to call him a "bat-only" player at this point? Just as you'd suspect from the eye test, he's been a positive fielder the last two years. Sure he takes a huge hit on Fangraphs positional adjustment but so would any 1B regardless of whether they were good at the position or not. At least the fielding itself doesn't have a negative impact with Edwin.

[FrozenRopes]

4/100 million if he is not guilty. 4/140 if he is

[fatcowxlive]

Is it still fair to Edwin to call him a "bat-only" player at this point? Just as you'd suspect from the eye test, he's been a positive fielder the last two years. Sure he takes a huge hit on Fangraphs positional adjustment but so would any 1B regardless of whether they were good at the position or not. At least the fielding itself doesn't have a negative impact with Edwin.

 

It's funny how Bautista and Edwin's perceptions switched. Bautista has went from a "serviceable" corner OFer to probably a DH eliminating NL teams (unless he's going to convert to a fulltime 1B) and Edwin went from a DH to a serviceable 1B opening up the NL market for him. If a team that desperately needs offence or that "one last piece" they'll take Edwin even though he's not a great 1B. He'll get the job done

[BTS]

Is it still fair to Edwin to call him a "bat-only" player at this point? Just as you'd suspect from the eye test, he's been a positive fielder the last two years. Sure he takes a huge hit on Fangraphs positional adjustment but so would any 1B regardless of whether they were good at the position or not. At least the fielding itself doesn't have a negative impact with Edwin.

 

Well, he's averaged like 70 games of average 1B defense a year, and we're talking about his 34-37 seasons. If he's not a bat-only player over his next contract, he's as close as you can get to one. I don't think NL teams look at him.

[KingKat]

 

If the front office thinks the money is better spent on younger guys that provide SOME defensive value, then I want them to do that.

 

Yeah that's fine in theory but in practice it's a different story. This team believes in the bird in the hand approach. They're not going to get utopic about this. They most definitely will try to find common ground with Edwin. They won't willingly risk being left holding their nuts.

[WONDERBAT]

He's on the decline so if they are looking to extend him they should front load the contract.

[KingKat]

Well, he's averaged like 70 games of average 1B defense a year, and we're talking about his 34-37 seasons. If he's not a bat-only player over his next contract, he's as close as you can get to one. I don't think NL teams look at him.

 

What he gives you on defense, he cancels out on baserunning so I guess technically you're right but I wanted to give him some credit for his 1B play.

[fatcowxlive]

Yeah that's fine in theory but in practice it's a different story. This team believes in the bird in the hand approach. They're not going to get utopic about this. They most definitely will try to find common ground with Edwin. They won't willingly risk being left holding their nuts.

 

I really doubt that. I really think Shapiro is going to edwin and his agent and say, "We're extending a QO to you, and here's the long term offer from us" with a figure and term that makes sense to Shapiro and makes sense given the budget now and the next X years

[BTS]

What he gives you on defense, he cancels out on baserunning so I guess technically you're right but I wanted to give him some credit for his 1B play.

 

Yeah, he's not a pure DH in the same vein that Ortiz or V-Mart are. What I meant was that his only actual value to a team comes from his bat, which makes it especially concerning that that one real skill showed signs of decline this year. Yeah, he can play a serviceable 1B defense 70 times a year, but that doesn't carry any value if the bat declines.

Edited October 13, 2016 by BTS

[RealAccountant]

A lot of us want to see Edwin and Jose hit 500 homeruns in a Jays uniform, beyond just the team winning.

 

I think Jose is maybe out side of that but Edwin could still hit 500 and make the hall

[BTS]

A lot of us want to see Edwin and Jose hit 500 homeruns in a Jays uniform, beyond just the team winning.

 

I think Jose is maybe out side of that but Edwin could still hit 500 and make the hall

 

lol

[Governator]

Yeah, he's not a pure DH in the same veign that Ortiz or V-Mart are. What I meant was that his only actual value to a team comes from his bat, which makes it especially concerning that that one real skill showed signs of decline this year. Yeah, he can play a serviceable 1B defense 70 times a year, but that doesn't carry any value if the bat declines.

 

 

Considering there will be a demand for him from several contending AL teams needing a DH/1B, it will drive the price up quickly I think. Having a big bat that can play serviceable 1B is quite valuable these days with so many interleague games. He certainly doesn't need the NL to land a $100MM contract (Which I agree he won't get from them) but even with a declining K rate there's still a good chance he continues being a 4 WAR player the next couple of seasons so you could argue he's worth it. It probably didn't help he had an STD allegation to deal with as well.

[Jimcanuck]

It'll take a minimum of three years. Likely four.

 

He'll take a higher AAV and shorter term

[Bobthe4th]

The prospect of giving $100M to a 34-year old bat-only player who just had a 4% jump in K-rate and 15% decline in wRC+ is scary.

 

^this. These are the facts. RBIs is not what I want to see this FO pay for. I'm confident this FO would do a reasonable deal based on a defensible valuation matrix and the market. The last thing they should do is get caught up in the emotion of the wild card gm and our playoff run, even if the fans are (including myself).

 

I'd be interested to know if you'd sign EE to a four year deal if money was no object? There's a chance a deal isn't done without a 4th year.

 

I appreciate by the 4th year that's a chance he's a replacement level DH, but believe he'd be better than anyone we could get in free agency for at least 1 year (while still playing 1B for maybe 50 games next year), and be around a 3 WAR contributor in years 2 and 3 (barring injury which if he's a DH by then wouldn't necessarily be a higher risk than a younger position player).

[flafson]

Because teams like the Red Sox will offer a lot more?

 

That may be true but if he wants to stay in Toronto and he even said so in English (which is rare for him) then giving him 4/80 vs 4/90 shouldn't be a big deal to him.

I don't see him as the ego type that wants to get paid the most just for the sake of it. He wants to get paid and he wants to stay where he is now.

 

As long as our offer is competitive vs anything else available, he should accept it.

Besides, I don't think Red Sox want more contracts like Hanley Ramirez and and Panda.