Report: Blue Jays plan to offer Encarnacion long-term deal

[metafour]

Look at age and hitting. Ortiz (why is he retiring - he just had a monster season 1.000+ OPS is massive. The guy is 40. Someone will look at EE and say - "hey this guy should be good until at least 38"

 

With all due respect; your point here is pretty stupid. Ortiz is the first guy to maintain elite performance at that high an age since who? Barry Bonds? To pretend that this is some sort of expected outcome at this point is lunacy; it is beyond extremely unlikely...and we've got a guy on our own roster (Jose Bautista?) who proves that, with prime Bautista actually being a better hitter than Encarnacion. The only other name that people can bring up is Jim Thome, and in reality Thome is a guy who clearly regressed after age 35/36 despite ONE fluke season in 2010 (age 39) wherein he managed to re-find his elite hitting albeit in a season wherein he only played in 108 games. To use David Ortiz as some sort of "expectation" of Encarnacion's future outlook is beyond foolish. Even Boston knew that Ortiz's elite hitting performance relative to his age was unlikely, which is why he's been playing on 1-2 year contracts since ~2012.

 

The reality about Encarnacion's season this year is that metrically it was actually the worst hitting season he's had since he officially broke out in 2011. The only reason why it looks like he's been as good as in previous years is because he managed to play in more games this past season than in any of those previous years. More at bats = more standard counting stats (RBI's, HR's, etc). In reality his strikeout rate jumped ~5% this year and his wRC+ dropped about ~15 points. There is no reason to expect that Encarnacion from ages ~34-38+ is going to somehow manage to stay healthier than he did from ~29-33.

[ILikeSoccerandBaseball09]

Pompey could pretty much be this if given the chance imo. Inciarte may be a bit better defensively but Pompey could give you everything else with a bit more power and SB's.

 

Inciarte is a thousand times better defensively in the OF than Pompey.

[ElNik2013]

Speakin' of Ortiz, for how many seasons leading up to his retirement was Ortiz on 1-2 year contracts?

[Mittens87]

A lot of people at Orioles hangout are all over signing Saunders. I guess the times they saw him were during the first half and a few odd home runs in other games we played against them. Funny how much more you know about a player watching all season than an average fan

[Orgfiller]

Pompey could pretty much be this if given the chance imo. Inciarte may be a bit better defensively but Pompey could give you everything else with a bit more power and SB's.

 

Inciarte is an elite defender with plus baserunning and around league average hitting. At this point he is Pompey's ceiling, not his floor. If our current FO's handling of him tells us anything, it's that they think he's not a major league calibre starting OF as it stands. With the acquisitions of Upton and continued PT of guys like Carrera and even Ceciliani, Barney, Goins with odd PT, it's clear that they are either trying to avoid exposing his flaws as a starter in hopes of maintaining what little trade value he has, or they just believe he would be detrimental to the performance of the team.

[jaysfan2014]

These aren't the old Red Sox. The Dombrowsky era Red Sox might just blow past the luxury tax ceiling.

 

They're already there. They're looking at a 40%(or more depending on the CBA) tax next year IIRC having already been above it in 2015 and 2016. So if they offer Edwin $25M/year, it's going to cost the Red Sox $35M($25M + $10M in luxury taxes) in 2017.. as they are already projected over the tax, and that might make John Henry uncomfortable.

 

Other teams, including Toronto, will be in on Edwin and Bautista as well.

[jaysfan2014]

A lot of people at Orioles hangout are all over signing Saunders. I guess the times they saw him were during the first half and a few odd home runs in other games we played against them. Funny how much more you know about a player watching all season than an average fan

 

O's fans don't know anything.. and Saunders would be a huge downgrade over Trumbo, and it's difficult to tell if the O's can even afford him, with the team facing significant arb raises to Machado, Tillman and Britton.

[BTS]

I don't think Moss will get three years, 2/20 will probably be more likely, but who knows. I just checked his numbers and he has a 142wRC+ and a .956 OPS with RISP this year. This would be a welcomed influx to the line up while getting more left handed at the same time.

 

Signing a player because he had good numbers with RISP is something that I can assure you will not be happening.

[Brownie19]

I don't think Moss will get three years, 2/20 will probably be more likely, but who knows. I just checked his numbers and he has a 142wRC+ and a .956 OPS with RISP this year. This would be a welcomed influx to the line up while getting more left handed at the same time.

 

I just checked him numbers and in 2015 he hit .156 with a wRC+ of 38 and a .542 OPS with RISP. Do you think he magically developed the ability to hit with RISP this year?

[RealAccountant]

From Redsox perspective why do they want EE so badly. Scoring runs will not be a problem for them. Quite frankly I would just get a cheaper option like Napoli if I was them. That is already the best offense in baseball. You would think they would be focused on starters

[UWHabs]

From Redsox perspective why do they want EE so badly. Scoring runs will not be a problem for them. Quite frankly I would just get a cheaper option like Napoli if I was them. That is already the best offense in baseball. You would think they would be focused on starters

 

It's the narrative of "oh, they're losing Ortiz, they must replace him". But yeah, I'm more expecting them to essentially run with Sandoval/HanRam at DH, and they still have Shaw/Holt and whichever of Pablo/HanRam isn't DH-ing to cover 1B/3B for them, with Moncada likely taking over at 3B starting in July. Maybe if they don't trust Pablo they add someone, but yeah, it seems more likely to be a Pearce/Napoli/Joyce/Alvarez type of player, someone who comes in cheap and can provide an adequate bat, and they can use the remaining cash to go after pitching.

[RealAccountant]

The more I look at it the more I think EE is coming back. Both sides are restricted in terms of options they will work something out.

[Stangstag]

Yeah I agree, I don't think the Redsox will/should want Edwin. But with Dombrowski, you never know.

[JoeCarter]

Is it weird to say that I actually have a lot more faith that we'll approach this decision rationally with Shapiro/Atkins calling the shots than with AA? Though their history with the Jays is short -- and who knows what really happens behind closed doors -- they strike me as level-headed and unemotional, whereas I wouldn't put it past AA to have said 'Whoa, Eddie: thanks for being such a bargain the last 5 years, here's a $120M/4 expression of our gratitude."

[jaysfan2014]

Jays and Rangers are likely the best fits for Edwin. Red Sox aren't exactly in a position to offer a long term deal, as Ortiz's retirement will be offset by significant arb raises--current projections according to Baseball-Reference have the Sox at the projected $200M luxury tax (with benefits).. and needing bullpen help, a SP, possibly a catcher (going with Leon/Vazquez for a full year is a bad idea--they need a real starter, possibly like Wieters), and depth--Red Sox are not a deep team with all the trades and graduations of prospects. Plus, Betts and Bogaerts are due major raises in the coming years.

 

I expect Boston to go after a short term option like Napoli or Beltran, who can at least back up at 1B(Napoli) or the corner OF(Beltran). Especially when they have Moncada, Sam Travis and Devers in the system--both Devers and Moncada are too valuable to trade, especially considering the long term holes at 3B and possibly 1B(if Devers doesn't last at 3B)

[jaysfan2014]

It's the narrative of "oh, they're losing Ortiz, they must replace him". But yeah, I'm more expecting them to essentially run with Sandoval/HanRam at DH, and they still have Shaw/Holt and whichever of Pablo/HanRam isn't DH-ing to cover 1B/3B for them, with Moncada likely taking over at 3B starting in July. Maybe if they don't trust Pablo they add someone, but yeah, it seems more likely to be a Pearce/Napoli/Joyce/Alvarez type of player, someone who comes in cheap and can provide an adequate bat, and they can use the remaining cash to go after pitching.

 

Don't forget they hold a $13.5M option on Buchholz, which will more than likely be exercised due to the lack of depth on the free agent market and the Sox's lack of pitching in the minor league system above A+ ball. There's also a chance they try to bring back Rich Hill.. but it'll cost Boston a ton.

[G-Snarls]

Why didn't the Red Sox re-sign Miller???

 

Edit: Nermind, the Yankees gave him 9M a year x 4 years. That's heavy even for a ridiculously good reliever.

[BlueRocky]

Why didn't the Red Sox re-sign Miller???

 

Edit: Nermind, the Yankees gave him 9M a year x 4 years. That's heavy even for a ridiculously good reliever.

 

Justin Smoak is getting half that...........

[pickoff22]

Why didn't the Red Sox re-sign Miller???

 

Edit: Nermind, the Yankees gave him 9M a year x 4 years. That's heavy even for a ridiculously good reliever.

 

Heavy at the time perhaps, nowadays it looks like a bargain

[burlingtonbandit]

Why didn't the Red Sox re-sign Miller???

 

Edit: Nermind, the Yankees gave him 9M a year x 4 years. That's heavy even for a ridiculously good reliever.

 

He would get at least double that now.

[dineke]

Is it weird to say that I actually have a lot more faith that we'll approach this decision rationally with Shapiro/Atkins calling the shots than with AA? Though their history with the Jays is short -- and who knows what really happens behind closed doors -- they strike me as level-headed and unemotional, whereas I wouldn't put it past AA to have said 'Whoa, Eddie: thanks for being such a bargain the last 5 years, here's a $120M/4 expression of our gratitude."

 

Contract negotiations were never a problem with AA.

[G-Snarls]

Heavy at the time perhaps, nowadays it looks like a bargain

 

It kinda does doesn't it...

[Stangstag]

Contract negotiations were never a problem with AA.

 

AA never had to sign a big free agent. His only big signing was Martin. 85/5 is not bad, but the fact that he backloaded it really f***s us.

[HERPDERP]

AA never had to sign a big free agent. His only big signing was Martin. 85/5 is not bad, but the fact that he backloaded it really f***s us.

 

it's easy to complain about it in hindsight. If he frontloaded it, perhaps we wouldn't have been able to afford any other acquisitions that pushed us over the hump (such as Tulo)

[burlingtonbandit]

AA never had to sign a big free agent. His only big signing was Martin. 85/5 is not bad, but the fact that he backloaded it really f***s us.

 

He had to backload it to fit it into Rogers budget. Since the payroll should be top 5 in MLB for next year it really doesn't f*** us at all...

[Jonn]

Red Sox could easily go after Trumbo as well. He's younger and perfect for that ballpark.

[jaysfan2014]

Red Sox could easily go after Trumbo as well. He's younger and perfect for that ballpark.

 

And don't rule out the Sox making a run at Cespedes as well--Dombrowski had him in Detroit, where he put up strong numbers, plus the chance Boston trades Bradley + top prospects for a top tier pitcher like Sonny Gray or Chris Sale. As for Trumbo, he'll cost less than Edwin since he only broke out this year..

[Stangstag]

Red Sox could easily go after Trumbo as well. He's younger and perfect for that ballpark.

 

Eeeeew. I hope they sign him to 5/100, that would be awesome. I don't believe Trumbo is this good going forward