Jays vs. Indians ALCS Discussion

[saskjayfan]

I just realized that all our games are with TBS

 

 

it will be fun to hear what the TBS guys have to say if Bauer has a bad outing.

[Governator]

Going Monday. Nosebleeds. Will be standing in the 100s instead.

[HERPDERP]

it will be fun to hear what the TBS guys have to say if Bauer has a bad outing.

 

[insert line that says Bauer is unlucky and the Jays lucky]

[Jimcanuck]

Funded by taxpayers but competes against other private networks which makes no sense.

 

At one time taxpayer funded CBC made sense. It hasn't made sense for a good number of years now.

[FrozenRopes]

It's all about Mark Buehrle it seems.

 

How has someone not hired this guy as a pitching coach?

[flafson]

At one time taxpayer funded CBC made sense. It hasn't made sense for a good number of years now.

 

You're right, it's just sad.

 

Their whole purpose is to go after things that don't make financial sense which is why they needed taxpayer money. Use taxpayers money and compete against those same people that fund them is just plain hypocrisy.

[flafson]

How has someone not hired this guy as a pitching coach?

 

He probably wants some time off, too fresh.

[bones10]

is the season still on? holy s*** it feels like its been months.

[RealAccountant]

is the season still on? holy s*** it feels like its been months.

 

f*** I hate this layoff we were on quite a roll but then again so were the Indians

[flafson]

f*** I hate this layoff we were on quite a roll but then again so were the Indians

 

It will allow us to get back Travis and Liriano, hopefully they help us.

[Terminator]

Zips is predicting a very close series with the Indians having a slight edge.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17783462/favored-win-alcs-projections-suggest-close-series-mlb

[KingKat]

So futile to use projections over a short series. That's the second article I've seen today that used some hard data to look at something that has no chance of lasting long enough to normalize. As lame as it sounds... anything can happen.

[BigRed]

So futile to use projections over a short series. That's the second article I've seen today that used some hard data to look at something that has no chance of lasting long enough to normalize. As lame as it sounds... anything can happen.

 

Yeah, when you think about it, using a system (ZiPS) that uses mass amounts of data to predict performance over 162 games seems ridiculous to predict the results a best of 7 series. It's just counter-intuitive.

 

You just need to look at game two of the ALDS between Toronto and Texas to see that anything can happen. Pillar hit probably the most ridiculous home run of the year on pitch location alone (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/kevin-pillar-hit-a-stupid-home-run/). Carrera, who hit 6 home runs all season also went yard. Both of these unlikely homeruns happened against Darvish of all pitchers, in the same inning, along with a 3rd home run from Encarnacion, with a previous home run from Tulo, for a total of 4 home runs. Darvish gave up 12 home runs in 100 innings of work all season, but gave up 4 in 5 innings of work in 1 post season game. Go figure.

 

If those HRs don't happen, Toronto probably doesn't win and go on to sweep Texas.

 

Literally no stat system would predict that, and not even the most far-out/wildest of predictions from anyone would guess that was going to happen.

 

The fact that this is a best of 7 CS instead of best of 5 like the DS will help it normalize a bit, but not all that much. If Toronto wins it will be because they are likely hitting home runs from their big hitters while getting some help from unlikely hitters, and if Cleveland wins it will likely because they can utilize their speed. It's not really a mystery and you don't need ZiPS to figure it out.

[07collian]

http://theballpoint.org/index.php/2016/10/13/one-step-closer-world-series-torontocleveland-alcs-preview/

 

We wrote a preview regarding the upcoming series. Let us know your thoughts. How are we seeing the pitching matchups going?

[fatcowxlive]

So futile to use projections over a short series. That's the second article I've seen today that used some hard data to look at something that has no chance of lasting long enough to normalize. As lame as it sounds... anything can happen.

 

yeah I'm surprised everyone, after what we saw in the last couple of weeks, doesn't see how much of a crapshoot the postseason is. Boston literally was the best team in the AL East across 162 but was riding a small losing streak and that eliminated them, while we came in hot and managed to get to the ALCS.

[Olerud363]

So futile to use projections over a short series. That's the second article I've seen today that used some hard data to look at something that has no chance of lasting long enough to normalize. As lame as it sounds... anything can happen.

 

That doesn't mean the system doesn't work... The question is could it get 17/30 (or something) series right...

[Stangstag]

Well TV networks are only in it for the money so obviously they will do what generates the most $. CBC is really the only network that will show things for the purity of sport and its funded by taxpayers.

 

I understand, but it just rubs me the wrong way that 2 entire fanbases (potentially 3 if LA goes to the NLCS) are shafted to make sure that 1 team has all the prime time games. It's complete ********.

[jays4life19]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-shared-exploitable-weakness-of-torontos-pitching-staff/

[KingKat]

That doesn't mean the system doesn't work... The question is could it get 17/30 (or something) series right...

 

Well I suppose you could look a historical data to determine that but ZiPS wasn't conceived for this purpose so it would be hard to read more into a correlation than dumb luck.

[KingKat]

If Toronto wins it will be because they are likely hitting home runs from their big hitters while getting some help from unlikely hitters, and if Cleveland wins it will likely because they can utilize their speed. It's not really a mystery and you don't need ZiPS to figure it out.

 

Even predictions like this don't mean much to me. Teams don't always win or lose according to script in a small series. Sure you would expect Toronto to hit more homeruns long term and the Indians to use their speed more but in a smally series maybe Cleveland out-homers Toronto. Maybe Cleveland out-homers Toronto and they still lose because of weird quirks of sequencing. It's just too volatile a sample.

[HERPDERP]

Face value tickets for sale

 

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/alcs-game-3-4-tickets-2047213/

 

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/blue-jays-alcs-game-4-upper-bowl-tickets-sale-2047186/

 

if they ask for more, report em

 

first one is a seasoned poster

[CBlake]

Going Monday. Nosebleeds. Will be standing in the 100s instead.

 

I also do that a lot , had a great view just up from third base for the Wild Card game.

[Governator]

I also do that a lot , had a great view just up from third base for the Wild Card game.

 

I usually like the corner outfields good views and usually right beside a beer stand.

[jerb]

 

Alex Seixeiro Verified account

‏@alexfan590

Here's the rotation: Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez. #BlueJays #ALCS

[HERPDERP]

Honestly surprised they went with Happ for #2

[KingKat]

Honestly surprised they went with Happ for #2

 

I could see Gibby wanting to line up Stroman for game 7 so I'm not too surprised. I was more surprised when that he didn't just put Stroman in game 1 and kept everyone on their regular turn.

[jays4life19]

Not that Cleveland is a pitchers park by any means but the cold temperatures should help guys like Marco and Jay. Saving our GB% guys for a closed Rogers centre seems wise.

[flafson]

Not that Cleveland is a pitchers park by any means but the cold temperatures should help guys like Marco and Jay. Saving our GB% guys for a closed Rogers centre seems wise.

 

Didn't really help Sanchez his last start out...

[SweetSmellingChacin]

I would have flipped Stroman/Sanchez, but I'm comfortable with any of these guys pitching.

[KingKat]

I could see the FO having a slight preference for pushing the young guys towards the end. Stroman's IP don't get discussed as much as Sanchez but he just pitched 200 IPs in what was effectively his first full season in the majors.