Bautista's next contract

[jaysblue]

I guess it only takes one, but I just don't see teams lining up to give a 2-3 win shortstop 20M per year. It feels like the Gordon market last year.

 

Dave Stewart?

[Laika]

The amazing thing with Tulo is that at 32, after all of his injuries, his defense is showing no decline. Such a vacuum.

[TheHurl]

Is there a hitter recently who got $80+M coming of consecutive sub-3 win seasons? Probably, but I can't think of any.

 

It's kind of interesting how few SS's have ever got $15M+ per season (5 in the history of baseball...and two are Jeter)

[JoeCarter]

What? Have you seen the type of contracts people have got over the past few years??? Josh Hamilton got 23Million AAV for 5 years starting at age 32 while being a liability on the field, question marks about his body and health, and a bad drug/alcohol history which was always in question and came into play after he signed (didn't he relapse in the last year or two?).

 

Tulo will give you GG defence for at least the next 2 seasons with a power bat, like I said I could see him in a Dodgers uni if he was a free-agent if they can get Seager to move over plus it's a dry FA class which always goes into play. Didn't we hear rumors of teams wanting to give Bautista at least 4 years with AAV of 20-25 million at the start of the year? He's 36 and showed that he was a liability in the field last year when he blew out his arm. He'll provide at worst a league average bat and above average defence and a resume which we've seen time and time again get people paid more.

 

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that your GG stands for 'generally good'. (Because if it's the alternative, then you're out of your mind.)

[admin]

Justin Upton was 29, coming off consecutive 3.5+ win seasons, and had never been hurt. Tulo is 32 and coming off consecutive league average-ish seasons and has a ridiculous injury history. I don't think they're similarly valuable.

 

And Tulo is a consistent 5 WAR player the same way Shin-Soo Choo is a consistent 5 WAR player.

 

I can't imagine too many GMs in baseball would prefer Upton over Tulo.

[vic city]

Who cares what Tulo would/wouldn't get. We know what he WILL get and this is a thread about Bautista.

 

Personally, I don't even think Bautista gets a 2/$35M offer with that draft pick attached to him unless he tears the cover off the ball for the rest of the year/post season.

[BTS]

I can't imagine too many GMs in baseball would prefer Upton over Tulo.

 

I don't think you'd be saying that if Upton were a year younger and finishing up another 3.5-4 WAR season.

[RealAccountant]

Yep if it wasn't for the pick

 

Would like to see if something can be worked out to keep him with the Jays gracefully

[glory]

I'd be fine with JB back on a two year deal. Anything more than that and I pass.

 

Will a team give up a pick and give him 3-4 years at $20m per year? Coming off a season where he had two different injuries, can't field/run, and isn't hitting to his standards? That's a tough call.

[BigCecil]

Personally, I don't even think Bautista gets a 2/$35M offer with that draft pick attached to him unless he tears the cover off the ball for the rest of the year/post season.

 

If you look at hard age & production/value comparables its Ortiz and Beltre(still a premium defender in a premium position unlike Jose who never was). The pick hurts Jose in terms of getting more. That doesn't mean some GM isn't going to take more risk that and hope he rebounds for the next 3 seasons to sign something like Beltran's 3/45 deal. Although I can't imagine anyone wanting to keep sticking him in the OF. He just hasn't looked close to the player he was even last year, and 2015 was far removed from the 8 WAR ceiling he once had. Beltre has had seven 5 WAR seasons consecutively and got 2/36.

[bones10]

Bringing back Saunders and Bautista means extending the contending window imo

 

We are losing Edwin but at least we can replace with competent 1B DH type. With Tulo and Martin and Donaldson you have to try and win

 

Plus look at the rotation. Going into next year with

 

Sanchez

Stroma

Estrada

Happ

Liriano

 

That ain't a bad deal. Elite closer to boot. Just need to rebuild pen and take another shot

 

Curious what they do with Biagini and Osuna tbh.

[admin]

I don't think you'd be saying that if Upton were a year younger and finishing up another 3.5-4 WAR season.

 

Fair point. But I still think Tulo has more value despite the past two seasons. Not to mention the way he's played since coming back.

[nmrch]

Is there a hitter recently who got $80+M coming of consecutive sub-3 win seasons? Probably, but I can't think of any.

 

Pablo Sandoval? Ofcourse Sandoval's age was a big plus for him. I think Tulo would almost certainly have gotten 4 years 80 million if he was a FA, that's the floor, and it could be more depending on other factors.

[jaysblue]

Tulo since June 18th:

 

.292/.349/.508 with 15 HR's, 48 RBI, 127 wRC+

[nmrch]

As for Bautista, i think people are severely underestimating how much respect he'll get from the market. The pick attached to him won't be an issue at all. There isn't a clear indication of sudden decline. He's still hitting the ball hard(actually slightly higher exit velocity this year) and his plate discipline numbers look great. I would be surprised if he doesn't get atleast 3 years 60 million, and with the mediocre talent that's out there in FA, it will probably be more than that, maybe even a 4th year. I also think his personal reputation will help a ton, he's known around the league for being a perfectionist when it comes to his swing and the way he prepares, there are very few players who command the type of respect he does, even from guys who don't like personality.

[BTS]

Pablo Sandoval? Ofcourse Sandoval's age was a big plus for him. I think Tulo would almost certainly have gotten 4 years 80 million if he was a FA, that's the floor, and it could be more depending on other factors.

 

Yeah, that's one. Seasons of 2 and 2.9 fWAR for Sandoval, then signed for 5/95 entering his age-28 season.

[RealAccountant]

Curious what they do with Biagini and Osuna tbh.

 

That's two great back end arms but the rest of the pen will need to be scratched

[bones10]

That's two great back end arms but the rest of the pen will need to be scratched

 

They could both be made starters is what I meant.

[nmrch]

That's two great back end arms but the rest of the pen will need to be scratched

 

I'm not sure about "great", this is the golden age of relievers in baseball.

Biagini has to show whether he can really sustain that abnormally low HR/FB% in the long term. Osuna has the same problem and he's an extreme fly baller, i have my doubts about whether he's really "managing contact" or just getting lucky. Its very worrying that he hasn't developed as a pitcher at all in the past year, no one seems to care but they should because its a red flag for a 21 year old.

 

The right thing to do with Osuna would be start him in the minors next year in preparation for him to start, and work on his changeup and more importantly completely revamp the usage of his fastball. He's gotta make his cutter and 2 seamer a bigger part of his arsenal because right now the 4 seam fastball/slider combination is barely good enough in relief, and it won't get it done as a starter.

[RealAccountant]

Why not just let Osuna be a really good closer.

[nmrch]

Why not just let Osuna be a really good closer.

 

Its no guarantee that he'll continue to be a "really good closer" with a 30% GB rate. He has to get better as a pitcher and that requires seasoning in the minors and innings under his belt.

[BTS]

I'm pretty sure Osuna never starts a game. He's already burned through two full years of team control, and it's far from guaranteed that 150 innings of starter Osuna is more valuable than 60 innings of relief Osuna, or that he can get to 150 innings and stay healthy.

[Jonn]

Osuna going to the minors will never happen lol. He would have to be consistently shelled. The starter ship has pretty much sailed. We have basically a set rotation going into next year.

[BTS]

Osuna going to the minors will never happen lol. He would have to be consistently shelled. The starter ship has pretty much sailed. We have basically a set rotation going into next year.

 

Yeah, there's 0 chance he goes to the minors for an extended stretch. Any potential gains are ruined by the lack of goodwill that would result from rewarding your lights out closer of two years with a 90% pay cut, a stalled service time clock, and return to the terrible MiLB lifestyle. He'd throw a fit. The MLBPA would throw a fit. His teammates would throw a fit. The fans would throw a fit. And it would all be justified.

[sawyerford]

Osuna will never pitch in the minors.....unless he gets destroyed.

[jimmygibbssr]

Honestly I'd prefer we bring Bautista back on a short term deal for a bargain rather than bring back an all ready declining Edwin. Chances are Bautista will rebound.

[BigCecil]

As for Bautista, i think people are severely underestimating how much respect he'll get from the market. The pick attached to him won't be an issue at all. There isn't a clear indication of sudden decline. He's still hitting the ball hard(actually slightly higher exit velocity this year) and his plate discipline numbers look great. I would be surprised if he doesn't get atleast 3 years 60 million, and with the mediocre talent that's out there in FA, it will probably be more than that, maybe even a 4th year. I also think his personal reputation will help a ton, he's known around the league for being a perfectionist when it comes to his swing and the way he prepares, there are very few players who command the type of respect he does, even from guys who don't like personality.

 

Ya, his numbers are kind of fascinating. Enigma. His K rate is up and his BB rate is down. His LD%, hard and soft contact numbers are up but the number the infield fly balls % is way up, so medium contact has taken a huge hit.

 

He is no longer an OF on any regular basis. He will settle in at DH/1B. There may always be some outlier GM willing to be over pay in a poor FA crop, but there needs to be some comparable to get 3/60 or more? He is 36 next month. "Respect" is a relative term in the baseball business that performance trumps. That's why Big Papi, who is a god in BOS, ended up starting to get 1 year extensions in 2011 when he wasn't too happy about it. He had a couple of leaner years around that time when he was Jose's age.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'll say he gets 3-4 years at close to $75 Million or higher.

[vic city]

Honestly I'd prefer we bring Bautista back on a short term deal for a bargain rather than bring back an all ready declining Edwin. Chances are Bautista will rebound.

 

....really? I'm not sure what your eyes are telling your brain but they're wrong.

[jimmygibbssr]

Edwin is striking out more, walking less. From 2012 to 2015 he has averaged a 149 wRC+. This year hes at 137. Hes gonna get overpaid.