Bautista's next contract

[BTS]

No way you can look at it in that kind of a vacuum. Teams without a SS need would be in. Boston, Yankees, Dodgers all make sure that it gets up to $20M per. Nats are always looking for Veteran leaders and have no issues moving everyone on their roster defensively. Then there are the teams with needs that you are putting in the "don't have the money" category.

 

I just don't think he's good enough that teams will be looking to shift their roster around to accommodate him. Will he even be a top-10 projected hitter on the market?

[fatcowxlive]

WTF. He's 32 and is going to project around 2 wins next year, and there's like 1 team with money that needs a shortstop. I think he'd get like 3/50 or something.

 

What? Have you seen the type of contracts people have got over the past few years??? Josh Hamilton got 23Million AAV for 5 years starting at age 32 while being a liability on the field, question marks about his body and health, and a bad drug/alcohol history which was always in question and came into play after he signed (didn't he relapse in the last year or two?).

 

Tulo will give you GG defence for at least the next 2 seasons with a power bat, like I said I could see him in a Dodgers uni if he was a free-agent if they can get Seager to move over plus it's a dry FA class which always goes into play. Didn't we hear rumors of teams wanting to give Bautista at least 4 years with AAV of 20-25 million at the start of the year? He's 36 and showed that he was a liability in the field last year when he blew out his arm. He'll provide at worst a league average bat and above average defence and a resume which we've seen time and time again get people paid more.

[puphood]

JB shoulder injury to me is the biggest concern for power and throwing so anyone that is serious about giving him a contract is going to have that checked out before any offer. So he will be valued mostly as a DH maybe first base. I am not to concerned with what JB gets but what he is offered by this front office......He isn't going to take a 1 year contract even if it has bonuses and a QO is just a insult to him so he is gone along with EE.......This lineup minus two 35-40 hr power hitters will suck.........

[TRM]

Qualify them all. Saunders accepts (great!), Bautista declines and walks, EE declines and is re-signed.

[TRM]

In other news, BTS is wrong. Tulo would get 5/100 or 6/120 I bet

[TheHurl]

I do find it funny that the group of "fantasy players" were always accused of prospect porn and never thinking about making the team good that year. Then the casuals have spent most of this year worrying about what will happen next year.

[BTS]

What? Have you seen the type of contracts people have got over the past few years??? Josh Hamilton got 23Million AAV for 5 years starting at age 32 while being a liability on the field, question marks about his body and health, and a bad drug/alcohol history which was always in question and came into play after he signed (didn't he relapse in the last year or two?).

 

Tulo will give you GG defence for at least the next 2 seasons with a power bat, like I said I could see him in a Dodgers uni if he was a free-agent if they can get Seager to move over plus it's a dry FA class which always goes into play. Didn't we hear rumors of teams wanting to give Bautista at least 4 years with AAV of 20-25 million at the start of the year? He's 36 and showed that he was a liability in the field last year when he blew out his arm. He'll provide at worst a league average bat and above average defence and a resume which we've seen time and time again get people paid more.

 

Josh Hamilton was coming off of consecutive 4-win seasons. Tulo is finishing up his second consecutive league average season, after having major hip surgery. He's a league average bat now, he's certainly not 'at least a league average bat' going forward. He's more Martin Prado and Neil Walker than Encarnacion and Cespedes.

[Stangstag]

I just don't think he's good enough that teams will be looking to shift their roster around to accommodate him. Will he even be a top-10 projected hitter on the market?

 

I feel like you really don't understand the free agent market. I remember you saying that Reddick could probably get close to 100 million. Yet you think Tulo would only get 50? I think you're way off here.

 

If Tulo was a free agent this offseason, he would at least get a Hanley Ramirez type contract.

 

I don't think Reddick gets a deal higher than 60 million.

[TRM]

Josh Hamilton was coming off of consecutive 4-win seasons. Tulo is finishing up his second consecutive league average season, after having major hip surgery. He's a league average bat now, he's certainly not 'at least a league average bat' going forward. He's more Martin Prado and Neil Walker than Encarnacion and Cespedes.

 

I get what you're saying, but the issue is it only takes one (ok, maybe two) GMs to be desperate for an "elite" bat at SS or to pay ticket price for 2013 Tulo, and all that stuff doesn't mean s*** anymore. I think you're taking a normative approach, but pragmatically Tulo would get PAID.

[TheHurl]

In other news, BTS is wrong. Tulo would get 5/100 or 6/120 I bet

 

It would be a bad contract but I somewhat agree. I think there are teams that pay for the name and the 127 wRC+ (and sub 15% K-rate) since his return from the DL in June.

[admin]

WTF. He's 32 and is going to project around 2 wins next year, and there's like 1 team with money that needs a shortstop. I think he'd get like 3/50 or something.

 

That's good and all but how many GMs use common sense? Not many. You're going to tell me Justin Upton is going to get 6years at $22M but Tulo, a consistent 5WAR player can't get anything close?

[Stangstag]

Josh Hamilton was coming off of consecutive 4-win seasons. Tulo is finishing up his second consecutive league average season, after having major hip surgery. He's a league average bat now, he's certainly not 'at least a league average bat' going forward. He's more Martin Prado and Neil Walker than Encarnacion and Cespedes.

 

The mistake you're making is that you are assuming this is how the majority of MLB front offices operate. Not the case. There would be several GMs that would sign Tulo and hope he bounces back offensively (which he has done the last few months). A lot of teams would be in on Tulo just because of his name.

[BTS]

I feel like you really don't understand the free agent market. I remember you saying that Reddick could probably get close to 100 million. Yet you think Tulo would only get 50? I think you're way off here.

 

If Tulo was a free agent this offseason, he would at least get a Hanley Ramirez type contract.

 

I don't think Reddick gets a deal higher than 60 million.

 

When I said that Reddick looked to be on his way to another 3+ win season. Then he got hurt and his performance dipped.

 

And Hanley is a good comp. He was a year younger than Tulo at the time he signed, and a better player. Maybe Tulo gets 4/70 or something.

[xposbrad]

I'd hesitate going over 1-2 years with him. He looks like he's really slowing down, running and hitting. There's too much risk right now. He knows by offering him a QO other teams are not going to give him the most money. He's probably looking at 2/35 max with a QO attached to him. I would match that 2/35 but nothing more, and aren't we glad he wasn't resigned prior to the year starting to some absurd numbers people were throwing around.

[Stangstag]

When I said that Reddick looked to be on his way to another 3+ win season. Then he got hurt and his performance dipped.

 

And Hanley is a good comp. He was a year younger than Tulo at the time he signed, and a better player. Maybe Tulo gets 4/70 or something.

 

Tulo would DEFINITELY get at least 4/80

[BTS]

That's good and all but how many GMs use common sense? Not many. You're going to tell me Justin Upton is going to get 6years at $22M but Tulo, a consistent 5WAR player can't get anything close?

 

Justin Upton was 29, coming off consecutive 3.5+ win seasons, and had never been hurt. Tulo is 32 and coming off consecutive league average-ish seasons and has a ridiculous injury history. I don't think they're similarly valuable.

 

And Tulo is a consistent 5 WAR player the same way Shin-Soo Choo is a consistent 5 WAR player.

[TRM]

Justin Upton was 29, coming off consecutive 3.5+ win seasons, and had never been hurt. Tulo is 32 and coming off consecutive league average-ish seasons and has a ridiculous injury history. I don't think they're similarly valuable.

 

It's possible I'm just way off base, but I really think someone would pony up if Tulo was ever available on the open market.

[Stangstag]

Justin Upton was 29, coming off consecutive 3.5+ win seasons, and had never been hurt. Tulo is 32 and coming off consecutive league average-ish seasons and has a ridiculous injury history. I don't think they're similarly valuable.

 

And Tulo is a consistent 5 WAR player the same way Shin-Soo Choo is a consistent 5 WAR player.

 

And how much did Choo get? A ridiculous sum of money. Tulo plays a more valuable position.

 

I'll say it again, Tulo would get at least the Hanley Ramirez contract.

[Stangstag]

It's possible I'm just way off base, but I really think someone would pony up if Tulo was ever available on the open market.

 

You're right. BTS is the one who is deluded

[BTS]

It's possible I'm just way off base, but I really think someone would pony up if Tulo was ever available on the open market.

 

It would have to be a team that sees him as a significant upgrade on their current situation and has 20+M to spend over 4 years. It's hard to identify a team likely in that boat. Detroit? Is Tulo an $80M upgrade on Iglesias?

[BTS]

Is there a hitter recently who got $80+M coming of consecutive sub-3 win seasons? Probably, but I can't think of any.

[fatcowxlive]

Josh Hamilton was coming off of consecutive 4-win seasons. Tulo is finishing up his second consecutive league average season, after having major hip surgery. He's a league average bat now, he's certainly not 'at least a league average bat' going forward. He's more Martin Prado and Neil Walker than Encarnacion and Cespedes.

 

No way Jose. The league isn't built with Shapiro's everywhere that are going to make deals based on WAR/$, lots of FOs don't even use analytics fully like that yet. I'm not saying what Tulo SHOULD get but what he WOULD get. You're taking a lot out of Tulo's real-life value. His resume is part of that. No way he gets a Prado or Walker deal because he's not Prado or Walker. We've seen time and time again people pay for past performances vs. future performances. Alex Gordon got 18 you're telling me Tulo who plays at a premier position gets paid less than him? V-Mart got like 17 a year and he's old as dust and he's a good hitter but provides no defensive value (which btw could now be what Bautista's realistically looking at 4/$68 or something). People overpay for stars all the time brah

[TRM]

It would have to be a team that sees him as a significant upgrade on their current situation and has 20+M to spend over 4 years. It's hard to identify a team likely in that boat. Detroit? Is Tulo an $80M upgrade on Iglesias?

 

Perhaps the Rangers. Nationals. Yankees. CWS. Mariners. Phillies.

[jaysblue]

Arizona seems like a team that would hand Tulo a 5-6 year deal worth $160 million.

[fatcowxlive]

Justin Upton was 29, coming off consecutive 3.5+ win seasons, and had never been hurt. Tulo is 32 and coming off consecutive league average-ish seasons and has a ridiculous injury history. I don't think they're similarly valuable.

 

And Tulo is a consistent 5 WAR player the same way Shin-Soo Choo is a consistent 5 WAR player.

 

Choo got 7/$130

[Terminator]

Tulo isn't a free agent though so this is all kind of pointless.

 

Back to Bautista I think the best he can get is Beltran money (3/45) or Beltre money (I believe he was 2 for 36). I just don't see him getting a fat contract. Ortiz never did and he's been the crown jewel of DH's for the past 15 seasons. I think there is a very real chance Bautista is back with the Jays next year.

[jaysblue]

I don't think Tulo gets anything less than 5 years at 20M per if he's a FA.

[BTS]

Perhaps the Rangers. Nationals. Yankees. CWS. Mariners. Phillies.

 

Nats maybe. Gregorius is probably better than Tulo. Sox are happy with Anderson. Phillies won't block Crawford. Can Seattle add a $20M player?

 

I guess it only takes one, but I just don't see teams lining up to give a 2-3 win shortstop 20M per year. It feels like the Gordon market last year.

[jaysblue]

Tulo isn't a free agent though so this is all kind of pointless.

 

Back to Bautista I think the best he can get is Beltran money (3/45) or Beltre money (I believe he was 2 for 36). I just don't see him getting a fat contract. Ortiz never did and he's been the crown jewel of DH's for the past 15 seasons. I think there is a very real chance Bautista is back with the Jays next year.

 

I'd like to see the Jays go year-to-year with Bautista like Boston has with Ortiz. Sure, start him up with a 3/45 or 2/40 type of deal and then go from there. Bautista is probably better off anyways going year-to-year at 20M, since that would equal $80-$100M over 4-5 years if he plays at a high level. Plus, alongside with all the sponsorships he gets from playing in Toronto & Canada, it's probably worth it for him from a financial standpoint to stay in Toronto rather then go somewhere else for a couple of bucks more, unless its a team like the Dodgers or Boston.

[BTS]

Choo got 7/$130

 

You missed my point, which was that Tulo now is not a consistent 5-win player.