Mid 2016 - AL East and win total revised Predictions

[BigCecil]

Its time to call it BJMB:

 

- 49% of the way through 2016.

 

- Jays 5.5 out and in the WC race.

 

- Rotation has been better than expected but falling off some. Offense, D and Pen have underachieved most expectations.

 

- Zeke and Saunders over achieving. SP Sanchez has been more than the vast majority thought. Devo fitting back in well.

 

- Some key injuries Floyd; Cecil; Tulo and Jose at various times.

 

- Yes, Tulo and Martin are still alive and haven't forgotten how to hit.

 

- If the pen had pitched as expected, we are likely in 1st place.

 

I think BoSox are a better team than BALT, but even with the fall off I expect in the O's rotation I think the O's pen and offense holds the lead, as much as I hate them. They are just having one of the "all goes right" seasons so far, with tons of pop and solid D. Its a no brainer for them to add an arm(s).

 

I look to us to be in a dogfight for 2nd or 3rd all year and getting a wildcard spot, and think we win 89 and not the 93 I first projected.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jays are currently in a playoff spot believe it or not. Getting Jose back will be a big addition.

 

I think the FO adds a couple of pitchers at the deadline. Kind of like the Grili acquisition in that its a low risk/high reward move where they don't give up much.

[Atothe]

I think it's between Boston and Toronto for the division and first wildcard.

[Captain Adama]

Bullpens rarely, if ever perform as expected. Ah well.

[TheHurl]

- If the pen had pitched as expected, we are likely in 1st place.

 

Did you expect the Pen to never give up a run? Even if you thought the Jays pen would be what it was in the second half last year...that is a 22 run difference (that's actual runs given up not a projection of what they should have given up...so not actually indicative of how the pen actually pitched last year or this year. I think you can easily find 22 runs elsewhere as well.

[Governator]

Our rotation has definitely come down to Earth. With them rarely going beyond 6IP lately it's also exposing our weak BP even more as well. I don't know the answer, but I do know Stroman isn't saving the season this year. I'd rather Hutchison up and Stroman down, don't know what he has to fix other than pitch sequence but he's got to get it figured out at a lower level. Happ is inconsistent with his BABIP regressing and even Estrada is looking more human.

 

However, if the offense keeps putting up 18H/game, my schedule suggests I'm available for a rotation spot.

[BigCecil]

Did you expect the Pen to never give up a run? Even if you thought the Jays pen would be what it was in the second half last year...that is a 22 run difference (that's actual runs given up not a projection of what they should have given up...so not actually indicative of how the pen actually pitched last year or this year. I think you can easily find 22 runs elsewhere as well.

 

Did I expect them to never give up a run? No. And GFY on the sarcasm. Did I expect them to perform better overall? Yes. I know what the numbers are. I liked the pen going into the season, but I expected more thus far out of arms like Cecil and Storen. I don't think there are many people in baseball who didn't. Few expected them to give up this many runs in leverage situations. Obviously, if we were getting the WAR from Tulo, Martin and Jose expected, it wouldn't be much of an issue.

[G-Snarls]

Did you expect the Pen to never give up a run? Even if you thought the Jays pen would be what it was in the second half last year...that is a 22 run difference (that's actual runs given up not a projection of what they should have given up...so not actually indicative of how the pen actually pitched last year or this year. I think you can easily find 22 runs elsewhere as well.

 

The pen cost us a few games but yes not 5.5

 

Everyone slumping at the plate in April cost us several games

 

We've gotten lucky a couple times and the SP overachieved early on.

 

I still think this team can win 88-90 games. Whether that gets us a wildcard game or a shot at the divison depends as much on how the Orioles play in the second half obviously. And on whether or not the Red Sox can add any pitching.

[RealAccountant]

We were 6 behind with 25% of the season left last year lmao

 

Sit down and watch. It's a long season

[Jonn]

Orioles run away with the division down the strech. Jays get a wild card spot.

[Governator]

We were 6 behind with 25% of the season left last year lmao

 

Sit down and watch. It's a long season

 

 

That second half season comeback isn't exactly common....

[BigCecil]

That second half season comeback isn't exactly common....

 

It makes me laugh when fans think we are just automatically going to repeat last years monster run post trade deadline.

[Atothe]

It makes me laugh when fans think we are just automatically going to repeat last years monster run post trade deadline.

 

We aren't but this team is better than the orioles.

[G-Snarls]

It makes me laugh when fans think we are just automatically going to repeat last years monster run post trade deadline.

 

Yea, we're adding a Price, Stroman, Tulo and Revere this year

[BigCecil]

We aren't but this team is better than the orioles.

 

I think both the BoSox and Jays are better than the O's, FWIW. We are going to have to be to roll by them in the 2nd half. It can happen. But I think they will add some pitching depth to an elite offense. They are on fire this month.

[RealAccountant]

That second half season comeback isn't exactly common....

 

Really in 20 years I have seen it with the Yankees and Sox just about every year

 

It's not like the Jays are bottom feeders. We are in a playoff spot right now. Last year we over took he Yankees. In 2014 we were the ones with the lead and they over took us. I bet if I sat down to do the study more often then not the first place team in the AL East does not finish first place.

 

And teams go on from the WC to the world series all the time.

[Spanky99]

I forget what I predicted pre-season, f*** it, lets just make the Postseason!!

 

Hmmm... it was 97, sounds good.

[glory]

Baltimore (ugh) wins the division, and either Toronto or Boston gets the 1st WC. The team that doesn't misses the playoffs entirely (either the Royals or Astros get the other WC spot).

 

The Orioles are their "everything goes right every two years" bull s*** can stick it.

[Jonn]

Baltimore (ugh) wins the division, and either Toronto or Boston gets the 1st WC. The team that doesn't misses the playoffs entirely (either the Royals or Astros get the other WC spot).

 

The Orioles are their "everything goes right every two years" bull s*** can stick it.

 

They really have some elite talent that plays excellent defense with a shutdown bullpen. With all that power its a pretty good recipe for success. You could argue if we had a shutdown bullpen we would be be the best team in Baseball.

[closetjaysfan]

Bullpens rarely, if ever perform as expected. Ah well.

 

Didnt they though? If you had asked me at the beginning of the season how we would have performed I would have said:

Offence: Number 1-3, one of the best in the league if not the best

Starting rotation: a ho-hum 14-15th overall

Bullpen: Middle of the pack, 13-17th overall

 

And where do they sit now?

Offence: 7th in runs scored, 9th in WAR [3rd in our Division]

Starting rotation: 10th in WAR [3rd best in the AL!]

Bullpen: 12th in WAR

 

The bullpen being league average cant be that surprising. Coming into the season we were short left handed options and everyone knew this would be a problem. Yeah, Storen hasnt been great, Cecil got hurt (and sucked for a bit) but Biagini has been better than expected and now we have Grilli. What surprises me is that our offence has under-produced for most of the season and that our starting rotation have been as dominant as they are (especially since Stroman has completely sucked in the second half).

[Stangstag]

I still don't think Baltimore will win the division. They'll most likely grab a wildcard though. They're just not a good enough team, and their offense will not be this good for much longer.

[Jimcanuck]

Sticking with my preseason prediction of 85.

 

Believe that was the lowest predicted win total.

[DavyJones]

I suspect that we'll get a Wild Card with 88 wins. I predict we'll finish ahead of the Red Sox.

[jaysfan2014]

AL East will be between Toronto and those O's. Boston will be out of contention by the All-Star break due to shoddy pitching, and I expect Houston or KC to take the 2nd wild card, while either the Jays or O's get the first one.

[CJ-Freeway]

Jays will host the WC game. Marco will start. #bookit

[SAAviour]

I feel the baseball gods have us destined to face Texas in the playoffs, it just has to happen.

Baltimore has to fade....right, right......?

[Grant77]

I feel the baseball gods have us destined to face Texas in the playoffs, it just has to happen.

Baltimore has to fade....right, right......?

 

Texas seems more likely to fade than Baltimore. I expect Houston to give them a run.

[SAAviour]

Texas seems more likely to fade than Baltimore. I expect Houston to give them a run.

 

Wild card hell vs Texas it is then.

[TheHurl]

This is the first year in probably the last 5 that I have no action on the Indians...so I'm guessing they are winning the AL. I think the Jays, Astros, Red Sox, Royals and O's are in a near tie in the end with the AL East spot and the 2 wild card spots on the line.

 

Other Predictions

 

Most active at the deadline (AL) - KC, White Sox, Red Sox

Biggest Seller in the AL - A's...with so few teams out of the hunt they get their prices and they have pending FA's (Reddick, Hill, Crisp, Coghlan, Fuld) and another bunch that are 2017 FA's. Rays may be active but only Pearce is a for sure move.

[puphood]

A reality check will come over the next 4 games as to what this team is capable of....