How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Boxcar]

I think your definition of "good chance" is slightly diffrent than most.

 

Seeing him this year has maybe bumped his ultimate ceiling to #2 with more likely outcome being a decent 3. He sill has lightyears to go on improved command before that's even realistic let alone the ace tag.

 

No, he really believes that. Stats and probability are just a hindrance.

[Maahfaace]

Amazing how some people don't get this. It's not because the ump hates Sanchez, it's because he's missing his spots.

 

Look what happened to Kershaw the other day. The umps are definitely not out to get the best pitcher in the league, yet this happened:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/kershaw-pence.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/kershaw-pence-2.png

 

As soon as the catcher has to reach across one way or the other, there's a huge chance you're not getting the call, no matter who you are.

 

Jesus. Look where this s*** bag ump is standing, no wonder he called it a ball.......definitely more about incompetence than "out to get anyone"

[Jimcanuck]

No, he really believes that. Stats and probability are just a hindrance.

 

You think Sanchez has no chance to be an ace?

[Olerud363]

You think Sanchez has no chance to be an ace?

 

The hive are being *******s to you in a way. Nobody is using any percentages in this conversation. It's just the usual "yo bro no chance"

 

Of course Sanchez has a chance of being an ace. Is it it 1/1000?? 1/100?? 1/5?? Even odds?? No idea. Probably 5% or something.

 

What do you think the chances of Sanchez being an ace are?? No idea about that either. 1/5?? even odds??

 

It would be nice to see people use numbers. Here is what I expect from the hive

 

Dear Mr. Jim Canuck

 

We (the hive) project that Aaron Sanchez has only a 2.73% chance of becoming an ace (which we define as 3 year peak WAR>15). We arrived at this conclusion by using an ensemble of projection methods which included several of our proprietary schemes. More details can be found in the following publications (insert links here).

 

We suggest researching our references thoroughly. Please post questions on the Sabermetrics thread.

 

Thank you for your continued patience

 

The hive

[Olerud363]

Sanchez past and SSS present.

 

Translation: People that spend a lot time thinking about these things and write apps and post the results on the internet think Aaron Sanchez will have a 4.00 era.

 

There is always a chance that his projection's standard deviation is high. Which would mean he has a higher chance of being an ace then another guy projected for a 4.00 era.

 

Not sure this would be true...

 

I should probably apologize to the hive... I am sure if I looked everything over I'd find more posts referencing the various projections.

[Olerud363]

To be fair, here is what I expect from Jim Canuck

 

Dear Hive

 

I estimate that Aaron Sanchez has a 60% chance of being an ace. I came to this conclusion by watching Chris Carpenter pitch for several years, then blossom with the Cardinals. Sanchez is just like Carpenter (based on my personal observations and gut instinct).

 

If you need references I can dig up the notes I took in the 90s while watching Carpenter. I also have VHS tapes of him. I can make copies. You will need a VHS player.

 

Thanks

 

Jim Canuck

[Jimcanuck]

To be fair, here is what I expect from Jim Canuck

 

Dear Hive

 

I estimate that Aaron Sanchez has a 60% chance of being an ace. I came to this conclusion by watching Chris Carpenter pitch for several years, then blossom with the Cardinals. Sanchez is just like Carpenter (based on my personal observations and gut instinct).

 

If you need references I can dig up the notes I took in the 90s while watching Carpenter. I also have VHS tapes of him. I can make copies. You will need a VHS player.

 

Thanks

 

Jim Canuck

 

Ha, nice one.

 

60% is too high though, it is closer to 10% in my estimation. A good chance in the grand scheme of baseball things. But you are right, the statheads would come up with a probability with 2 decimal accuracy, to give it an aura of legitimacy.

[Olerud363]

10% is reasonable...

 

Then the correct way to proceed would be for the Statheads to give you Sanchez 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile projection.

 

I wonder if his 90th percentile projection is at "ace" performance level? If it is not they can yell at you more.

[93 Jays]

The bright side in this start was that although he was a bit wild, he still came out of it with a quality start and if not for his own error, he gives up 1 run over 6. When a pitcher struggles without his best stuff and still competes to keep his team in the game, that says a lot about him moving forward. Still, can't have your starters throwing 90 plus pitches through 6. He saves himself a pitch or 2 an inning and he's out there to get himself through 7 and lessens the need to have cecil the clown come out and blow it up. Ultimately, this team needs another big arm like Sanchez to take his place in the bull pen. Brett and Drew have already lost 3 between them.

[Spanky99]

The bright side in this start was that although he was a bit wild, he still came out of it with a quality start and if not for his own error, he gives up 1 run over 6. When a pitcher struggles without his best stuff and still competes to keep his team in the game, that says a lot about him moving forward. Still, can't have your starters throwing 90 plus pitches through 6. He saves himself a pitch or 2 an inning and he's out there to get himself through 7 and lessens the need to have cecil the clown come out and blow it up. Ultimately, this team needs another big arm like Sanchez to take his place in the bull pen. Brett and Drew have already lost 3 between them.

 

I was going to thank this post, until you called Cecil a clown, that's a shame.

[John_Havok]

Ha, nice one.

 

60% is too high though, it is closer to 10% in my estimation. A good chance in the grand scheme of baseball things. But you are right, the statheads would come up with a probability with 2 decimal accuracy, to give it an aura of legitimacy.

 

Hedging your 10% number with "the grand scheme of baseball things" reeks of backpedaling.

 

My spreadsheets and calculator came up with 17 decimal places by the way, but my mom said I shouldn't try to show up the stupids on the internetz.

 

Gotta go, I'm being called to dinner. I LOVE TACO NIGHT!

[burlingtonbandit]

Who has the higher strikeout rate this year Sanchez or Stroman?

[THANOS]

Who has the higher strikeout rate this year Sanchez or Stroman?

 

Sanchez has a 9 K/9 right now, Stro has a 6.08 K/9.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sanchez has a 9 K/9 right now, Stro has a 6.08 K/9.

 

lol I meant to say who will finish with the higher strikeout rate at the end of the season.

[THANOS]

lol I meant to say who will finish with the higher strikeout rate at the end of the season.

 

Probably Sanchez, which I never would have thought months ago, but, Martin's game plan with him seems to be swinging strikes and weak contact, whereas Stroman just desires ground balls and weak contact overall.

[Grant77]

Probably Sanchez, which I never would have thought months ago, but, Martin's game plan with him seems to be swinging strikes and weak contact, whereas Stroman just desires ground balls and weak contact overall.

 

Sanchez is still getting more groundballs than Stroman despite that game plan. Not saying he's better or anything, but the increased K's haven't changed his contact profile.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sanchez is still getting more groundballs than Stroman despite that game plan. Not saying he's better or anything, but the increased K's haven't changed his contact profile.

 

Stro has 65% GB rate and Sanchez 60%?

[G-Snarls]

Stro has 65% GB rate and Sanchez 60%?

 

Those numbers will move a lot from start to start this early in the season

 

They're both getting tons of GB outs ATM. Lovin' it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Those numbers will move a lot from start to start this early in the season

 

They're both getting tons of GB outs ATM. Lovin' it.

 

Its only been a few games but the infield looks like its playing fairly slow again this year. With the Jays infield defense thats a huge advantage to both of them.

[Laika]

I believe

[Krylian]

So, can we all agree that having Sanchez in the rotation is the best of the three options that were being talked about during spring training.

 

1. MLB rotation

2. MLB pen

3. AAA rotation

[Laika]

So, can we all agree that having Sanchez in the rotation is the best of the three options that were being talked about during spring training.

 

1. MLB rotation

2. MLB pen

3. AAA rotation

 

yeah

[Jimcanuck]

I believe

 

What do you think his ceiling is

[Krylian]

what do you think his ceiling is

 

 

goat

[Laika]

What do you think his ceiling is

 

An effectively wild #2/3, like a right handed Francisco Liriano, kind of.

[Krylian]

An effectively wild #2/3, like a right handed Francisco Liriano, kind of.

 

I'd take that all day long.

[Angrioter]

An effectively wild #2/3, like a right handed Francisco Liriano, kind of.

 

Are you kidding, right?

Liriano is a whiffs God

[saskjayfan]

Are you kidding, right?

Liriano is a whiffs God

 

Sanchez is a ground ball God #oneluckysonofabitch

[Laika]

Are you kidding, right?

Liriano is a whiffs God

 

It's impossible to find perfect comps for a guy like Sanchez, lol. His tools are too extreme. Maybe at his max ceiling he gets less whiffs than Liriano but more groundballs.

 

But the overall skill set is kind of the same. I mean Liriano has had entire seasons where he couldn't find the strike zone. Sanchez will never have plus command. Maybe prime Justin Masterson is a better comparison.

 

He'll be his own unique guy though, whatever he becomes. But to be clear I still don't expect him to be a #2/3. I'd be happy with a guy that can last this entire season as any type of viable SP right now.

[Angrioter]

Sanchez is a ground ball God #oneluckysonofabitch

 

#OneLuckySonOfABitch for days lol