How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[RealAccountant]

You guys don't get it. Sanchize has heart

[Atothe]

Lets see how much Steamer's opinion has changed.

 

Steamer600 pre season:

6.84 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 4.4 ERA, 65 G, 65 IP, 100% relief, -0.2 WAR

 

Steamer RoS after one start:

7.43 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 4.20 FIP, 4.21 ERA, 35 G, 20 GS, 131 IP, ~ 90% starter, 1.3 WAR

 

That is a HUGE difference when you factor in the role change as projections as a starter go down for everyone.

 

Just like J...... Nvm

[THANOS]

Lets see how much Steamer's opinion has changed.

 

Steamer600 pre season:

6.84 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 4.4 ERA, 65 G, 65 IP, 100% relief, -0.2 WAR

 

Steamer RoS after one start:

7.43 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 4.20 FIP, 4.21 ERA, 35 G, 20 GS, 131 IP, ~ 90% starter, 1.3 WAR

 

That is a HUGE difference when you factor in the role change as projections as a starter go down for everyone.

 

I wonder how much it change if he has another 0 BB, >9 K/9 performance with his usual strong GB%?

[GD]

Holy f***. Isn't it supposed to decrease 17% from RP->SP? That's insane

[Laika]

Lets see how much Steamer's opinion has changed.

 

Steamer600 pre season:

6.84 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 4.4 ERA, 65 G, 65 IP, 100% relief, -0.2 WAR

 

Steamer RoS after one start:

7.43 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 4.20 FIP, 4.21 ERA, 35 G, 20 GS, 131 IP, ~ 90% starter, 1.3 WAR

 

That is a HUGE difference when you factor in the role change as projections as a starter go down for everyone.

 

How does this even make sense? I don't get it. There should be a lot more lag than that.

[Stangstag]

That's creepy as f***

[RealAccountant]

Today the Sanchize is going to dominate the Yankees

[THANOS]

This is a great article.

 

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/11/believe-aaron-sanchez-hot-start-april-debut/

 

I never knew this, but Sanchez' horizontal and vertical movement has increased on every single one of his pitches.

[BigCecil]

It hasn't, but more so that almost anything we have been dissecting this guy for years. I've always been skeptical of Sanchez's ceiling for reasons stated on this board ad nauseam.

 

But I'm done with that for now. I'm really excited to see if he can maintain close to what he did in the Spring and in his first start against Tanaka and NYY today. They have some solid LHH's and guys like Beltran have touched him up before. I can't stand the f***ing Yankees. Off Day Over. Bring it on!

[GD]

How does this even make sense? I don't get it. There should be a lot more lag than that.

 

This is still f***ing with me. Like obviously Sanchez had an incredible start but I don't understand how any projection can change this significantly based on one start.

[THANOS]

The author didn't demonstrate why those movement changes are meaningful though and there may be some measurement error in there.

 

You should be much, much more excited about his control and the performance of his pitches than the fact that a system detected an extra inch of break on average.

 

If those measurements are legit, I would counter that the movement could make it more difficult to square up/make any contact and that could be supported with that increase in missed bats.

 

It hasn't, but more so that almost anything we have been dissecting this guy for years. I've always been skeptical of Sanchez's ceiling for reasons stated on this board ad nauseam.

 

But I'm done with that for now. I'm really excited to see if he can maintain close to what he did in the Spring and in his first start against Tanaka and NYY today. They have some solid LHH's and guys like Beltran have touched him up before. I can't stand the f***ing Yankees. Off Day Over. Bring it on!

 

I can't wait, I'm super stoked to see what he can do against a tougher line-up, especially with powerful/pesky lefties like Beltran and Gardner.

[Cyborg]

Holy f***. Isn't it supposed to decrease 17% from RP->SP? That's insane

 

How does this even make sense? I don't get it. There should be a lot more lag than that.

 

This is still f***ing with me. Like obviously Sanchez had an incredible start but I don't understand how any projection can change this significantly based on one start.

 

One thing Steamer does is immediately adjust for higher or lower velocity. Holding the velocity throughout the start helps boost it. The SwStr rate also boosts it significantly.

[THANOS]

One thing Steamer does is immediately adjust for higher or lower velocity. Holding the velocity throughout the start helps boost it. The SwStr rate also boosts it significantly.

 

How many at-bats does it take to regulate the SwStr%? I'm sure the strike/ball rate in the start helped as well.

[Angrioter]

How many at-bats does it take to regulate the SwStr%? I'm sure the strike/ball rate in the start helped as well.

 

Stabilization Points for Pitching Statistics:

 

70 BF: Strikeout rate

170 BF: Walk rate

640 BF: HBP rate

670 BF: Single rate

1450 BF: XBH rate

1320 BF: HR rate

630 BF: AVG

540 BF: OBP

550 AB: SLG

630 AB: ISO

70 BIP: GB rate

70 BIP: FB rate

650 BIP: LD rate

400 FB: HR per FB

2000 BIP: BABIP

[Cyborg]

Stabilization Points for Pitching Statistics:

 

70 BF: Strikeout rate

170 BF: Walk rate

640 BF: HBP rate

670 BF: Single rate

1450 BF: XBH rate

1320 BF: HR rate

630 BF: AVG

540 BF: OBP

550 AB: SLG

630 AB: ISO

70 BIP: GB rate

70 BIP: FB rate

650 BIP: LD rate

400 FB: HR per FB

2000 BIP: BABIP

 

Swstr is somewhere from 15-30 I think. Fastbll velocity is just 1.

[G-Snarls]

If he keeps the walks down I'm excited. And he did so all spring and his first start. This is a decent lineup and will be great to see how he does. Cheering for him hard.

[THANOS]

Stabilization Points for Pitching Statistics:

 

70 BF: Strikeout rate

170 BF: Walk rate

640 BF: HBP rate

670 BF: Single rate

1450 BF: XBH rate

1320 BF: HR rate

630 BF: AVG

540 BF: OBP

550 AB: SLG

630 AB: ISO

70 BIP: GB rate

70 BIP: FB rate

650 BIP: LD rate

400 FB: HR per FB

2000 BIP: BABIP

 

Swstr is somewhere from 15-30 I think. Fastbll velocity is just 1.

 

Thanks guys! That's interesting. Cyborg, are you saying FB Velo stabilizes after 1 BF? You would think it would be after 30 FB or something?

[Cyborg]

Thanks guys! That's interesting. Cyborg, are you saying FB Velo stabilizes after 1 BF? You would think it would be after 30 FB or something?

 

Its actually less than 1 fastball. That means that after one fastball, their fastball velo is more predictive of their true talent than league average fastball velo would be.

[KingKat]

Its actually less than 1 fastball. That means that after one fastball, their fastball velo is more predictive of their true talent than league average fastball velo would be.

 

Less than 1?

[Stoneyen]

Its actually less than 1 fastball. That means that after one fastball, their fastball velo is more predictive of their true talent than league average fastball velo would be.

 

So if Sanchez's Swstr% is good again tonight he might be on to something with the offseason adjustments

[Cyborg]

Less than 1?

 

Its around .7 or so.

 

Stabilization point is when:

True talent = 0.5*actual + 0.5*league average.

 

Say we have Chapman and he throws one pitch. It comes out at 102 and league average is 92.

If stabalization point is 1 then that means his true talent is probably 97. As you can probably intuitively know, it should be higher since we just saw him throw 102.

 

Formula should be (pitches/ (pitches + 0.7))*actual + (1-(pitches/ (pitches + 0.7)))*league

 

This would give us around 98 for Chapman case.

[KingKat]

Its around .7 or so.

 

Stabilization point is when:

True talent = 0.5*actual + 0.5*league average.

 

Say we have Chapman and he throws one pitch. It comes out at 102 and league average is 92.

If stabalization point is 1 then that means his true talent is probably 97. As you can probably intuitively know, it should be higher since we just saw him throw 102.

 

Formula should be (pitches/ (pitches + 0.7))*actual + (1-(pitches/ (pitches + 0.7)))*league

 

This would give us around 98 for Chapman case.

 

O.K. fair enough but the only way to obtain the 0.7 of a pitch you need to make your calculation is by throwing one pitch so you can see why the less than a pitch feels counter-intuitive.

[Laika]

O.K. fair enough but the only way to obtain the 0.7 of a pitch you need to make your calculation is by throwing one pitch so you can see why the less than a pitch feels counter-intuitive.

 

Just a communication issue and entirely Cyborg's fault on that from because you know, he is actually a robot

[Cyborg]

O.K. fair enough but the only way to obtain the 0.7 of a pitch you need to make your calculation is by throwing one pitch so you can see why the less than a pitch feels counter-intuitive.

Stabilization point is just a theoretical threshold. The number used in the regression formula would be 0.7. The number at which you could say velocity "has stabilized" would be 1 since number of pitches is a whole number.

[THANOS]

Its actually less than 1 fastball. That means that after one fastball, their fastball velo is more predictive of their true talent than league average fastball velo would be.

 

Its around .7 or so.

 

Stabilization point is when:

True talent = 0.5*actual + 0.5*league average.

 

Say we have Chapman and he throws one pitch. It comes out at 102 and league average is 92.

If stabalization point is 1 then that means his true talent is probably 97. As you can probably intuitively know, it should be higher since we just saw him throw 102.

 

Formula should be (pitches/ (pitches + 0.7))*actual + (1-(pitches/ (pitches + 0.7)))*league

 

This would give us around 98 for Chapman case.

 

Interesting. Thanks for that.

[HERPDERP]

Steve Souza-

 

[Stoneyen]

Big test facing all the lefties tonight.

[Spanky99]

Big test facing all the lefties tonight.

 

So excited for this start.

[Spanky99]

20% change ups tonight. All 60 grade.

 

Would be nice.

[93 Jays]

His change is a work in progress. But the good thing is that apparently him and STRO are good friends and he's been helping sanchez out as much as he can. The thing for me is that Sanchez throw strikes consistently with his fastball and that he mixes in his curve and change quite a bit more. I've seen him hit hard a few times simply because he's throwing that fastball way too often. But I've chirped it over and over again that when Aaron keeps his walk rate down, his stuff is more than good enough to keep his team I games and throw quality starts.

 

But what I'm aching to see is the confidence and hopefully that comes with consistency with his secondary pitches. I'm one of the few here who thinks he has the ceiling to be an ace and a full year experience with STRO by his side can go a long way to giving him the foundation he needs to start down that road. He's 23 and if he develops the way I think he's going to, the combo of him STRO and Estrada can be pretty f***ing devastating, especially come playoff time.