General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

http://live.87sportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/obtuse-shawshank-2.gif

You know exactly what he means. Let EE and JB walk if they won't move willingly and take the picks. Trade whatever other pieces you can for scraps at the deadline.

If that's what you want to do that is.

This talk is for 60 games from now bro.

intentional wok · May 17, 2016

I'm not exactly enjoying the season so far either but I can't believe what I'm reading. 2 games under on May 17 is hardly folding time. Teams start the car late nearly every year and end up contending. Did you guys forget last season?

RealAccountant · May 17, 2016

I would trade Dickey right now for a late inning reliever and bring up Hutch

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

I'm not exactly enjoying the season so far either but I can't believe what I'm reading. 2 games under on May 17 is hardly folding time. Teams start the car late nearly every year and end up contending. Did you guys forget last season?

Crazy isn't it, after 40 games last year we were 4 games under, with the same pythagorean record, and a better club this year on paper. No one's enjoying this scuffling but this talk is ludicrous.

fireballW · May 17, 2016

Shatkins:

New heads of shown why they never had any meaningful success in Cleveland. I agree with a lot of the regulars on the board about things, but AA was an easy top 10 GM. It is sad to see that these new guys lack the creativity to not let this go down the toilet. People here blew their wads because of the great depth they acquired, when the only good signings or trades made were basically the ones that were already in development before they got there.

I have no faith that Atkins is an above average GM. He seems like the type of guy AA would dance circles around in any negotiation. AA's history was positive on the whole and there is nothing from this new team to make me think they will be better. It's really a shame. In a perfect world AA and Shapiro could have co-existed, which would have the potential to be one of the top front offices in baseball.

BTS · May 17, 2016

Shatkins:

How is this a plan coming together? The additions they've made have largely been useful (Happ, Estrada, Floyd, Biagini, Barney). The reason why this team is under 0.500 is that it's May 17th and they have received replacement level production from the Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki-Martin foursome. That's a huge amount of dead weight, and there is no chance that management is pleased about it.

BTS · May 17, 2016

New heads of shown why they never had any meaningful success in Cleveland. I agree with a lot of the regulars on the board about things, but AA was an easy top 10 GM. It is sad to see that these new guys lack the creativity to not let this go down the toilet. People here blew their wads because of the great depth they acquired, when the only good signings or trades made were basically the ones that were already in development before they got there.

I have no faith that Atkins is an above average GM. He seems like the type of guy AA would dance circles around in any negotiation. AA's history was positive on the whole and there is nothing from this new team to make me think they will be better. It's really a shame. In a perfect world AA and Shapiro could have co-existed, which would have the potential to be one of the top front offices in baseball.

Have you been paying attention to what's happened this season?

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

Have you been paying attention to what's happened this season?

lol

RealAccountant · May 17, 2016

New heads of shown why they never had any meaningful success in Cleveland. I agree with a lot of the regulars on the board about things, but AA was an easy top 10 GM. It is sad to see that these new guys lack the creativity to not let this go down the toilet. People here blew their wads because of the great depth they acquired, when the only good signings or trades made were basically the ones that were already in development before they got there.

I have no faith that Atkins is an above average GM. He seems like the type of guy AA would dance circles around in any negotiation. AA's history was positive on the whole and there is nothing from this new team to make me think they will be better. It's really a shame. In a perfect world AA and Shapiro could have co-existed, which would have the potential to be one of the top front offices in baseball.

Shapiro has one of the worst track records in MLB in what was a horrible division for many years

BigCecil · May 17, 2016

Crazy isn't it, after 40 games last year we were 4 games under, with the same pythagorean record, and a better club this year on paper. No one's enjoying this scuffling but this talk is ludicrous.

I don't think we are into dismantling at all. I picked 93 wins for this team to win the Div. If my math is right, that would mean .607 winning ball from tonight until the end of the season.

I was in Hous on May 15th 2015 when we lost 4 in a row and it looked dire as hell then too. But I don't see that kind of run happening with this team again. BTS is right on the main reasons we are scuffling. I'd also add taking a .400+ BABIP of Cola and 23 HR's of power from Martin out of the offense is whats killing this team so far.

Edited May 17, 2016 by BigCecil

G-Snarls · May 17, 2016

Shapiro has one of the worst track records in MLB in what was a horrible division for many years

He also had about 50M less in payroll to operate with.

RealAccountant · May 17, 2016

He also had about 50M less in payroll to operate with.

Fair enough

intentional wok · May 17, 2016

New heads of shown why they never had any meaningful success in Cleveland. I agree with a lot of the regulars on the board about things, but AA was an easy top 10 GM. It is sad to see that these new guys lack the creativity to not let this go down the toilet. People here blew their wads because of the great depth they acquired, when the only good signings or trades made were basically the ones that were already in development before they got there.

I have no faith that Atkins is an above average GM. He seems like the type of guy AA would dance circles around in any negotiation. AA's history was positive on the whole and there is nothing from this new team to make me think they will be better. It's really a shame. In a perfect world AA and Shapiro could have co-existed, which would have the potential to be one of the top front offices in baseball.

I defended AA in another thread when posters were calling his moves boom-or-bust, but I still don't think he's top 10 anything. He sold the farm twice and and managed only two consistent months of entertaining baseball, which luckily happened at the right time for an amazing playoff run. Without that great streak AA would have been laughed out of town.

This is still AA's team with a couple of new curtains and a rug from Shapiro and Atkins. But even the shoddy calibre of play from the superstars has been remarkable. None of this is on AA or Shatkins.

If your core is Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, Edwin, and Martin and the offense is still failing, no impact or depth move is going to save it. Either those guys get it going or the season is doomed. There's nothing to be done.

bronson44 · May 17, 2016

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 11m11 minutes ago Florida, USA

word going around is rougned odor is likely to get about an 8-game ban. he may well appeal, tho, if that's the penalty

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

I don't think we are into dismantling at all. I picked 93 wins for this team to win the Div. If my math is right, that would mean .607 winning ball from tonight until the end of the season.

I was in Hous on May 15th 2015 when we lost 4 in a row and it looked dire as hell then. I don't see that kind of run happening with this team again, and I remember last years run very well bro.

I don't see why not, this team's 6 games back and 3.5 of the WC, I'm not expecting a .700 plus winning percentage we went on after the deadline like last year, but it has to get better from here on out, right? I still have faith in this club.

BTS · May 17, 2016

If your core is Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, Edwin, and Martin and the offense is still failing, no impact or depth move is going to save it. Either those guys get it going or the season is doomed. There's nothing to be done.

This is it exactly. Martin, Tulo, Encarnacion, and Bautista put up 14.8 fWAR last year. They were projected to put up 14 this year. We're 25% of the way through the season and they're at 0.6 fWAR. That's about three wins less than their projected pace. That's the difference between 19-21 and 22-18.

We can talk all we want about the bullpen and Gibbons and Thole, but the reality is that if the high-priced star players continue to hover around their current paces, there is nothing that AA or Shartkins could have done to bring this team to the playoffs. It's on the stars to start playing.

intentional wok · May 17, 2016

I don't see why not, this team's 6 games back and 3.5 of the WC, I'm not expecting a .700 plus winning percentage we went on after the deadline last year, but it has to get better. Right? I still have faith in this club.

I'm of the opinion that the pitching outburst and overperformance (along with the acquisition of Price and the miraculous recovery by Stroman) was far more of an answered prayer than expecting four 4-5 WAR position players to start performing properly again.

I mean there's always the chance that they're all having career-low seasons at the same time, but the things that need to go right for this season to be a success are far more likely to happen than the perfect storm of things that fell into place last year.

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

I'm of the opinion that the pitching outburst and overperformance (along with the acquisition of Price and the miraculous recovery by Stroman) was far more of an answered prayer than expecting four 4-5 WAR position players to start performing properly again.

I mean there's always the chance that they're all having career-low seasons at the same time, but the things that need to go right for this season to be a success are far more likely to happen than the perfect storm of things that fell into place last year.

Agreed, wholeheartedly. Man, we were 8 gms back when we acquired those guys last year. There's no way in hell that will happen again. Yet, from here on out, we are still in this.

glory · May 17, 2016

How is this a plan coming together? The additions they've made have largely been useful (Happ, Estrada, Floyd, Biagini, Barney). The reason why this team is under 0.500 is that it's May 17th and they have received replacement level production from the Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki-Martin foursome. That's a huge amount of dead weight, and there is no chance that management is pleased about it.

Yeah seriously. Practically all of Shapiro's moves this winter have helped the team except for Storen, and that was the definition of a 'win now' move. While I agree that Shapiro did not want to continue with AA's core when he was first hired, that clearly changed after what happened in Aug-Oct 2015. He was trying to win in 2016. He just inherited a roster that collectively isn't playing well right now. Someone like Shapiro who knows about win curves isn't going to get joy out of wasting a perfectly good chance of making the playoffs/winning a world series just so he could detonate the roster to his mold. I'm sure he'll be doing that anyway in 2017 when this roster ceases to exist in its current form (JB/EE leaving), but his plans were clearly different heading into 2016.

Shapkins added depth to AA's team. That's what we are seeing right now. They could still turn it around, but if that does happen, it will have to happen because the stars play like stars.

xposbrad · May 17, 2016

Agreed, wholeheartedly. Man, we were 8 gms back when we acquired those guys last year. There's no way in hell that will happen again. Yet, from here on out, we are still in this.

Except this year, we don't really have the same trade chips. This club is gutted in the minors now. I don't think the Jays will be 10+ games out by the deadline, but we will probably be in the 5-10 game range, not enough to be sellers and actually trade JB/EE and go into sell mode, but enough for Rogers to pretend like we're contenders and try to keep attendance up for the rest of the year. We've had a tough schedule so far, so we'll gain some ground when we play some weaker teams.

intentional wok · May 17, 2016

Agreed, wholeheartedly. Man, we were 8 gms back when we acquired those guys last year. There's no way in hell that will happen again. Yet, from here on out, we are still in this.

I live with a fairly new baseball fan so I've gotten pretty good at keeping a level head and explaining the rollercoaster.

Spanky__99 · May 17, 2016

Except this year, we don't really have the same trade chips. This club is gutted in the minors now. I don't think the Jays will be 10+ games out by the deadline, but we will probably be in the 5-10 game range, not enough to be sellers and actually trade JB/EE and go into sell mode, but enough for Rogers to pretend like we're contenders and try to keep attendance up for the rest of the year. We've had a tough schedule so far, so we'll gain some ground when we play some weaker teams.

That goes without saying, it's basically what I just said. They won't be able to move those guys regardless, well it's up to them(JB/EE/TT), but it isn't happening.

glory · May 17, 2016

I'm getting close to the point where I feel this team is better off folding at the deadline.

We need to restock the farm and shed salary

In the long run they probably are better off trading players at the deadline (JB, EE, Dickey, Cecil, Saunders, etc). Chances are you'll only be getting picks for JB and EE, and ultimately the type of players you can get at the deadline (prospects that are ready/near ready) carry far more value than draft picks. They will have to be really far back in July for that to be realistic, though. The Jays are 2 games under .500 despite not really playing well for any stretch of the season. They probably have a sustained run in them at some point (11 game winning streak if recent history is any indication). They'll probably be too good to completely blow it up mid-season.

But yes, I agree that trading vets at the deadline does not have a downside to it. The Jays are old and have a s*** farm system.

HERPDERP · May 17, 2016

your usual Stroman porn

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-im-still-learning/

BigCecil · May 17, 2016

I don't see why not, this team's 6 games back and 3.5 of the WC, I'm not expecting a .700 plus winning percentage we went on after the deadline like last year, but it has to get better from here on out, right? I still have faith in this club.

Ya, thanks for the pep talk off the ledge. I'm feeling really beleaguered and morose with the season so far.

My expectations were high because of the talent here and I know:

1. Sans maybe Travis the solution to the current play will have to come from within. (the crazy thing is we have been relatively healthy and lucky DL wise so far 2016 and we still aren't playing well)

2. 2017 and beyond we wont have this kind of team with playoff aspirations for awhile.

Having said all that I tend to agree with you, BTS and Iwok that they need to grind this out and get production from those that they expected to produce pos WAR. I agree that it it should come...but its not looking good right now. There are no moves of consequence to be made. We are going to dance with the ones that brung us in 2015. I don't think that blowing this team up (even if they could) makes any sense.

THANOS · May 17, 2016

your usual Stroman porn
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-im-still-learning/

Some nice quotes in there.

“If you look now, I’m really started to mix in the four-seam now, the cutter,” he said of his last outings. “I’m starting to learn how to use my pitches. That’s why, in the last few starts, I’ve had some more punchouts, because I’m starting to learn sequences.”

What’s left after adding more four-seamers and cutters? The changeup, which is his worst pitch right now. And he knows it. With a velocity differential of only around 7 mph off his fastball — “Need to get it to 10,” he says — the change has relied on movement to find its way to about average results.

“It’s my worst pitch and it’s my favorite pitch,” Stroman said of the change. “If I had that pitch going, I’d be unhittable,” he laughs. “I’m always screwing with it. It’s not my pitch, it’s hard pitch for me, given my size, my arm slot, the way my body moves. I’m good at spinning things, got a good feel for spin.”

Given the learning that the righty has done in his four short years as a full-time starter on the bump, you have to feel good about the next four years. Once he learns how to use all three breaking balls, the two fastballs, and maybe even the change, and then learns “when I can go here, when I can go there,” he’ll be even nastier than the ace he’s already been.

HERPDERP · May 17, 2016

hngghh

Maahfaace · May 17, 2016

That goes without saying, it's basically what I just said. They won't be able to move those guys regardless, well it's up to them(JB/EE/TT), but it isn't happening.

It is up to them, but it's in their best self interests to accept a trade if the jays are out of it. It will substantially increase the amount they get via free agency with no draft picks attached to then. Don't think that bats isn't fully aware of this, he's a smart guy, and for sure he's let edwin know it's in his best interests financially as well.

BillBucknorslegs · May 17, 2016

How is this a plan coming together? The additions they've made have largely been useful (Happ, Estrada, Floyd, Biagini, Barney). The reason why this team is under 0.500 is that it's May 17th and they have received replacement level production from the Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki-Martin foursome. That's a huge amount of dead weight, and there is no chance that management is pleased about it.

I actually agree with a lot of this, but let's not kid ourselves. Shatkins knew that any success this team had was going to be in the short term only and every move they have made, whether or not they have worked out, was predicated on the chance of achieving something this season and perhaps the next. Happ and Estrada were signed for 2-3 years only, Barney and Storen 1 year, EE was offered a 2 year contract and so on.

Shatkins has recognized that this organization has been raped by AA's trades and the farm needs to be restocked and the team either dismantled or simply allowed to slip away quietly into the night in the off season. We also know that the free agent class of 2016 is utterly shite and there are no short term fixes to be had down the road. Thus Shatkins plan has to be the rebuild, although I agree he would have preferred like all of us to see the team achieve close to the level it did last year and I for one am still hopeful that it will.

burlingtonbandit · May 17, 2016

I wonder if Pitch/FX confuses some of his 4 seams for cutters because the last few starts it looks like he's barely thrown any 4 seams but the cutter usage like he said is way up.