win totals contest

[TheHurl]

Atlantis Sports Book was the first to post their Win Totals. Lets see who can best take advantage of these early lines. Confidence style. Give me your top 12. with your most confident pick being your 12 and your 12th most confident being your 1 (a push getting you half points). Person with the highest total wins. Maybe we can scrape together a prize (if you have something donate let me know). PM me your picks and I'll throw them into a google doc or just post here.

 

http://images.covers.com/editorial/2012/383x165/mlb_wintotals021116.jpg

[Grant77]

Atlantis Sports Book was the first to post their Win Totals. Lets see who can best take advantage of these early lines. Confidence style. Give me your top 12. with your most confident pick being your 12 and your 12th most confident being your 1 (a push getting you half points). Person with the highest total wins. Maybe we can scrape together a prize (if you have something donate let me know). PM me your picks and I'll throw them into a google doc or just post here.

 

http://images.covers.com/editorial/2012/383x165/mlb_wintotals021116.jpg

 

1. Dodgers - Over (too good and too much depth to only win 87)

2. Giants - Under (I don't think Cueto and Shark bring them from ~.500 to 90 wins)

3. Braves - Over (exciting mix of vets and young talent. I don't see 97 losses in a mediocre division)

4. Athletics - Over (Stellar pitching depth and loved the Davis pickup, should be .500 or so)

5. Marlins - Under (Too many holes on offense and not enough pitching depth to be .500)

6. Rays - Over (Better than the Orioles, but this division...)

7. Orioles - Under (see above)

8. Brewers - Under (I love the Brewers, but I expect that fire sale to continue and that division is so good)

9. Rangers - Under (86 wins is steep, even with Darvish back)

10. Cubs - Over (Hard to predict 90 wins, but they won 97 last year and improved)

11. Twins - Over (Could go either way, but I expect breakout seasons from Buxton and Sano)

12. Red Sox - Under (Hope they lose 100)

Edited February 15, 2016 by Grant77

[RealAccountant]

1. Royals - over

2. Dodgers - Over

3. Nationals - Over

4. Angels - Over

5. Yankees - Under

6. Mets - Under

7. Giants - Under

8. Rangers - Under

9. Astros - Over

10. Tigers - Under

11. Twins - Under

12. Whitesox - Under

 

I think Royals stay on top in the Central which is going to be very weak with 3 bad teams and 1 .500 team

 

Rangers are going to slide big time this year Astros and Angels are both 90+ win team both will make the playoffs

 

Over in the NL West Dodgers will win 100+ and the Giants will be .500. Mets and National will fight it out but the Mets will have a down year due to high pitching injuries

 

Redsox will win AL East and Jays will get one of the two WC

 

AL

 

East Redsox

Central Royals

West Angels

 

WC Jays

WC Astros

 

NL

 

East Nationals

Central Cubs

West Dodgers

 

WC Diamondbacks

WC Pirates

[Orgfiller]

Grant you mean you expect a breakout year from Sano of the Twins right?

[Grant77]

Grant you mean you expect a breakout year from Sano of the Twins right?

 

Lol yes, sorry.

[Boxcar]

Pretty telling that my most confident bet is Cubs over 89.

[TilsonBritoFan]

I feel like these lines aren't very good. I would confidently place money on over half of them. Only a handful are tough to make a call on.

[TilsonBritoFan]

Yanks on under is close to a lock btw

[SpeedyGose]

Atlantis Sports Book was the first to post their Win Totals. Lets see who can best take advantage of these early lines. Confidence style. Give me your top 12. with your most confident pick being your 12 and your 12th most confident being your 1 (a push getting you half points). Person with the highest total wins. Maybe we can scrape together a prize (if you have something donate let me know). PM me your picks and I'll throw them into a google doc or just post here.

 

http://images.covers.com/editorial/2012/383x165/mlb_wintotals021116.jpg

 

Cubs over

Giants under

As over

Dodgers over

Red Sox over

Braves over

Orioles under

Yankees under

Rays over

Twins under

Tigers over

White Sox over

[Grant77]

Why are people so down on the Twins? Fangraphs projections take the over on 77.5 and there's a lot of exciting players on offense. Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Dozier, Park, Kepler.

 

Don't take this as a direct comparison, but I think they're a bit like the pre-2015 Cubs.

[TilsonBritoFan]

While I agree they may make the over its certainly not a slam dunk. I disagree, they are nothing at all like the pre-2015 Cubs. The pre-2015 Cubs had potential future dynasty written all over them, the Twins do not. Hardcore fans knew Schwarber was going to be a beast even before last year. Twins should be around .500 IMO.

 

The biggest locks IMO are:

 

Yankees under

Braves over

Red Sox over

Cubs over

Astros over

Giants under

Jays over

[Dick_Pole]

1. I'm a complete fan boy but....Jays over 87

2. Cubs over 89

3. Giants under 90 (I don't like the fact that everyone and their mother seem to be in on this one but come on)

4. Twins over 77.5

5. Astros over 85.5

6. Tigers under 85

7. White Sox under 80.5

8. Brewers under 71.5

9. Cardinals over 87.5

10. Orioles under 80.5

11. Mariners under 83

12. I got burned last year on this very same bet so I'm making it my last choice, but the Indians can't disappoint this much two years in a row right? Indians over 84

 

I think Dodgers at 87 is exactly the right number. If there's a tie breaker, I'll make mine being the Dodgers pushing at 87 when there's more than a dozen reasonable win total guesses one could have for that team.

[FrozenRopes]

What if guys edit their picks? Is there a way to tell? I am not interested if guys can amend their picks.

[TheHurl]

What if guys edit their picks? Is there a way to tell? I am not interested if guys can amend their picks.

 

first off...go f*** yourself it's a board contest. Secondly I'm recording the picks on a google doc

[Grant77]

While I agree they may make the over its certainly not a slam dunk. I disagree, they are nothing at all like the pre-2015 Cubs. The pre-2015 Cubs had potential future dynasty written all over them, the Twins do not. Hardcore fans knew Schwarber was going to be a beast even before last year. Twins should be around .500 IMO.

 

The biggest locks IMO are:

 

Yankees under

Braves over

Red Sox over

Cubs over

Astros over

Giants under

Jays over

 

Sano is better than Schwarber in my opinion.

[TilsonBritoFan]

But the Cubs are do deep in young studs like Schwarber, Bryant, Soler with more in the pipeline its ridiculous. Plus they'll be able to afford to keep them.

[labadee]

Atlantis Sports Book was the first to post their Win Totals. Lets see who can best take advantage of these early lines. Confidence style. Give me your top 12. with your most confident pick being your 12 and your 12th most confident being your 1 (a push getting you half points). Person with the highest total wins. Maybe we can scrape together a prize (if you have something donate let me know). PM me your picks and I'll throw them into a google doc or just post here.

 

http://images.covers.com/editorial/2012/383x165/mlb_wintotals021116.jpg

 

1. Jays Over

2. Cards Over

3. Tigers Under

4. Braves Over

5. A's Over

6. Red Sox Under

7.SF Giants Under

8. TB Rays Over

9. ChiSox Under

10. NYY Under

11. LAD Over

12. Chicago Cubs Over

[Grant77]

But the Cubs are do deep in young studs like Schwarber, Bryant, Soler with more in the pipeline its ridiculous. Plus they'll be able to afford to keep them.

 

Sano, Buxton, and Kepler are also an exciting group of young talent, just like those three were before 2015. As for the pipeline, the Twins still have an elite farm and the Cubs are bottom half of the league.

 

I don't expect them to win 90 games or something. They just have an exciting group of young position players.

[John_Havok]

Cincinnati - Under

Milwaukee - under

Texas - under

Oakland - over

Detroit - under

Angels - under

Braves - over

Yankees - under

Dodgers - over

D-backs - under

Padres - under

Royals - under

[burlingtonbandit]

Going from most confident to least

 

Dodgers over 87

Diamondbacks under 84.5

Royals under 87

Rays over 78

Angels under 82.5

Cubs over 89

Astros over 85.5

Giants under 90

Brewers under 71.5

Orioles under 80.5

Padres under 74

Marlins under 80.5

[Terminator]

1. Cubs OVER

2. Mets OVER

3. Oakland OVER

4. Rays OVER

5. Orioles UNDER

6. Indians UNDER

7. Rockies UNDER

8. Marlins UNDER

9. White Sox UNDER

10. Seattle UNDER

11. Braves OVER

12. Toronto OVER

[Dick_Pole]

Cincinnati - Under

Milwaukee - under

Texas - under

Oakland - over

Detroit - under

Angels - under

Braves - over

Yankees - under

Dodgers - over

D-backs - under

Padres - under

Royals - under

 

Gotta admit those are a couple of bold picks leaning under on two teams with a 71/71.5 win total as the top two confidence plays.

[Dick_Pole]

I noticed that these lines imply 18 teams over .500 and only 12 teams under .500. And of those 12 under .500, three of them are under 80.5 which means they are essentially .500. It wouldn't be the worst strategy for someone to go under across the board on all 30 teams in hopes that a few massive outperformers like the Cubs kill everyone else's chances to hit their win totals while assuming no team will lose 105+ this year.

[AdamGreenwood]

1) Giants - UNDER

2) Rangers - UNDER

3) Braves - OVER

4) Rockies - OVER

5) Tigers - UNDER

6) Royals - UNDER

7) Angels - UNDER

8) Cubs - OVER

9) Rays - OVER

10) A's - UNDER

11) Astros - OVER

12) Phillies - UNDER

[TheHurl]

The google doc. Check for errors.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10YJjwgPFQIOD2ponITQuny9Gx061ZLSb4Eiu9UxRF1k/edit?usp=sharing

[TheHurl]

using up to date projections the standings are:

 

Burlington Bandit 60

John Havok 53

Dick Pole 50

Boxcar 48

Real Accountant 46

Speedy Gose and TheHurl 38

GD 34

Labadee 32

Greenwood 31

Grant 29

Terminator 23.

 

A lot of tight spots right now though so much could change.

[admin]

I don't think it affected any of the totals, but I thin some of your projections are off, or am I reading it wrong?

For example you have Rangers projected of 87 wins. .576 win% * 162 = 93 win team.

[TheHurl]

I don't think it affected any of the totals, but I thin some of your projections are off, or am I reading it wrong?

For example you have Rangers projected of 87 wins. .576 win% * 162 = 93 win team.

 

Projection based on team fWAR...I didn't feel like doing math.

[admin]

Projection based on team fWAR...I didn't feel like doing math.

 

ah okay

[Terminator]

using up to date projections the standings are:

 

Burlington Bandit 60

John Havok 53

Dick Pole 50

Boxcar 48

Real Accountant 46

Speedy Gose and TheHurl 38

GD 34

Labadee 32

Greenwood 31

Grant 29

Terminator 23.

 

A lot of tight spots right now though so much could change.

 

Ha! Other than the Cubs it's possible I could get the other 11 wrong.