Prediction Thread - Jose and Edwin's next deals - How much, how long

[TBJ12]

Jose 3/48 elsewhere

EE 4/62 here

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bautista get $110M himself.

[glory]

I think Bautista and Encarnacion will both get four years. Age 36 (Bautista) and age 34 (EE) is old to hit free agency. I doubt either one gets more than four years. AAV for both somewhere between $20-23M, assuming they have typical seasons in 2016. Neither one will re-sign with Toronto, is my guess. The free agent market is crazy, and the moment those two hit the open market and the Jays have to compete with other teams with contract offers (looking at you, Dombrowski), it's going to get very rich.

 

I'm interested to see how Shapiro/Atkins go about replacing those two in 2017 if they both leave. That's about 8 or 9 wins for $24m combined that they'll need to replace. The Jays had it really good with those two on those contracts. Too bad they only have it for one more season.

[TheHurl]

Manfred saying NL DH as soon as 2017...yeah that gives EE and JB a shitload of leverage.

[TBJ12]

I wouldn't wan't to be the guy responsible for the decision on these two. I think the wrong decision could make the Shapiro regime very short lived in TO.

[tercet]

Jb - 3/60

ee - 4/75

[BigCecil]

Jose 3/48 elsewhere

EE 4/62 here

 

Jb - 3/60

ee - 4/75

 

Even though they are older than recent big signings, when you look at their production juxtaposed against the AAV and term market, I don't know how some can under value our own talent so much? If these are the numbers....get the f***ing pen!

[Stangstag]

Yeah if they bring the DH to the NL in 2017, we can pretty much say goodbye to both Jose and Edwin. Bidding war is gonna be crazy for both.

[Spanky99]

Jose 3/48 elsewhere

EE 4/62 here

 

lol

[Spanky99]

Even though they are older than recent big signings, when you look at their production juxtaposed against the AAV and term market, I don't know how some can under value our own talent so much? If these are the numbers....get the f***ing pen!

 

This is blatant trolling, or ignorance. (The posts you're replying to.)

[SAAviour]

If they arent signed by spring training my guess is we lose them both.

 

My guess is Jose for 4 years at 18, 20, 22,25...85 mil total if signed in the next month or so by Jays...if not he gets 4 years at 100 total.

 

EE with Jays, 5 years at 22 mil each for a total of 110....if a free agent make it the contract Chris Davis just signed.

 

I'd prefer Jose. I always feel EE won't age well, hope I'm wrong cause I love the guy.

[Key22]

They won't sign either player - they will wait until before the trade deadline - if they're out of it they will trade both for a package of three good prospects each. Yes they have no trade 5/10 rights but both of them will ignore that because as free agents there will be no draft pick compensation attached if they are traded mid year - and for a few months (and likely being traded to any of the contenders) they will both gladly give up the right. Most playoff teams will want to add a power bat and both of them can still play somewhat respectably in the field. On one half year teams would line up to boost their offense. SO we should be able to get two pretty big hauls for them near the deadline.

 

If Tulo rebounds and has an excellent first half - you can bet we'll be called on him as well. We could free up what $50 million on those three players - not resigning Dickey is another $12m. $62 million saved and maybe 9 mid to upper quality prospects - 2 of which might turn into 5th starters or fourth outfielders. But the point is Rogers turns the ever important profit.

 

If we're in it we keep them and get two compensation draft picks. And we still save on Dickey's salary AND the $40-$45 million a year we would have had to spend on JB and EE. Then just replace the two with one of our premium hitting prospects ----

[Hipfan]

I'd try and sign them both but defer a good portion of their salaries, ie Davis and Scherzer contracts. Something like 4/90M range, but AAV over the 4 years at 18M, then defer the rest.

[BigCecil]

This is blatant trolling, or ignorance. (The posts you're replying to.)

 

Ya. I think so. I thought it about it after my tourettes like response. Still don't understand how some non trolls think they would sign for 18mm AAV ^ or under given the deals we are seeing. Arms and premium (ish) bats are getting paid big money routinely. Prospects of an NL DH will only drive up the value of a guy like EE and an aging OF like Jose.

[baseballsss]

I don't think either of them are going to require a 5 year commitment. Bats is 35 and Edwin is 33 they will get 2 or 3 year deals. Which I would be very comfortable with. Nobody is giving them 5 years until they are 40 and 38.

 

lol you haven't followed many off seasons if you don't think either one of these guys will at least get 4 years. Unless they both tank this year their both getting 4 years min.

[Praxis]

They won't sign either player - they will wait until before the trade deadline - if they're out of it they will trade both for a package of three good prospects each. Yes they have no trade 5/10 rights but both of them will ignore that because as free agents there will be no draft pick compensation attached if they are traded mid year - and for a few months (and likely being traded to any of the contenders) they will both gladly give up the right. Most playoff teams will want to add a power bat and both of them can still play somewhat respectably in the field. On one half year teams would line up to boost their offense. SO we should be able to get two pretty big hauls for them near the deadline.

 

If Tulo rebounds and has an excellent first half - you can bet we'll be called on him as well. We could free up what $50 million on those three players - not resigning Dickey is another $12m. $62 million saved and maybe 9 mid to upper quality prospects - 2 of which might turn into 5th starters or fourth outfielders. But the point is Rogers turns the ever important profit

 

I think this is the most likely scenario at this point. Shapiro doesn't seem to be the type to be panicked into making a Vernon Wells type of deal for either player and I highly doubt Rogers would commit the extra funds necessary to keep both at this point and still hold the team together.

[Jimcanuck]

I think this is the most likely scenario at this point. Shapiro doesn't seem to be the type to be panicked into making a Vernon Wells type of deal for either player and I highly doubt Rogers would commit the extra funds necessary to keep both at this point and still hold the team together.

 

I expect EE will be kept. Hard to see the defense minded Shapiro keeping Bautista around. Could see a Pompey, Pillar, Alford OF in 2017.

 

Tulo moved if Jays out of it.

[Stangstag]

I expect EE will be kept. Hard to see the defense minded Shapiro keeping Bautista around. Could see a Pompey, Pillar, Alford OF in 2017.

 

Tulo moved if Jays out of it.

 

Do we really think Alford will be ready to step in full-time in 2017?

[Jimcanuck]

Do we really think Alford will be ready to step in full-time in 2017?

 

Sky's the limit for him. 5 tools and might be the best athlete in MiLB.

[Moo3]

Is anyone not 100% certain that Edwin and Jose won't be Blue Jays after 2016?

[Stangstag]

Is anyone not 100% certain that Edwin and Jose won't be Blue Jays after 2016?

 

I think there's a decent chance we sign one of them. Both of them though? No chance. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them both sign elsewhere.

[JaysRap]

This team isn't about handing out contracts to aging stars, no matter how well they've done for the organization. They'll let both Bautista and Encarnation walk and try to build this team with other pieces for their next window - approx 2 - 4 years from now. Great.....

 

Bautista - $125 over 4 years. Player opt out after 2nd year. Bonus $75,000 per All Star appearance.

Encarnation - $125 over 5 years. No trade clause.

[saskjayfan]

This team isn't about handing out contracts to aging stars, no matter how well they've done for the organization. They'll let both Bautista and Encarnation walk and try to build this team with other pieces for their next window - approx 2 - 4 years from now. Great.....

 

Bautista - $125 over 4 years. Player opt out after 2nd year. Bonus $75,000 per All Star appearance.

Encarnation - $125 over 5 years. No trade clause.

 

who's paying bautista more 31 a year?

[Angrioter]

who's paying bautista more 31 a year?

 

Maybe..... Nobody.

Jose will stay 4/96M. Tulo traded.

[RealAccountant]

Rogers is losing hundreds of millions on their NHL contracts. With no Canadian team.in the playoffs you can bet payroll cuts are coming....

[Jimcanuck]

Rogers is losing hundreds of millions on their NHL contracts. With no Canadian team.in the playoffs you can bet payroll cuts are coming....

 

Got to wonder why the Canadian NHL teams are consistently worse than the American teams. Is it as simple as - the Canadian teams don't necessarily have to be good to draw in fans?

[glory]

I think there's a decent chance we sign one of them. Both of them though? No chance. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them both sign elsewhere.

 

Yeah I think one is the best case scenario. No chance both are back, and I'd guess the chances of losing both are greater than the chances of signing one. It's just too much money for a payroll that won't have enough room to fit them in.

[Praxis]

Rogers is losing hundreds of millions on their NHL contracts. With no Canadian team.in the playoffs you can bet payroll cuts are coming....

 

The funny thing is, all the things the fans are lining up to blame Shapiro for can be almost directly tied to the corporate ownership of the Jays:

 

1) Not making Price an offer

 

2) Short-changing the American League MVP

 

3) Spinning our wheels in terms of the bullpen, closer role, back up catcher and outfield depth

 

4) Letting virtually every free agent of note go elsewhere

 

5) EE and Bautista? We'll find out, but my hopes are not high of signing either

 

Shapiro almost has to start again from scratch because this team is getting older, the window is closing on this lineup staying together and sure as hell Rogers isn't going to raise the payroll higher to make any significant additions; apparently there is no-one left to even talk them into it anyway.

[P2F]

The stupidity of #2 makes me want to rage-quit the forum. He wasn't short-changed, this is just how business works. Edited January 29, 2016 by P2F

[BigCecil]

This team isn't about handing out contracts to aging stars, no matter how well they've done for the organization. They'll let both Bautista and Encarnation walk and try to build this team with other pieces for their next window - approx 2 - 4 years from now. Great.....

 

Bautista - $125 over 4 years. Player opt out after 2nd year. Bonus $75,000 per All Star appearance.

Encarnation - $125 over 5 years. No trade clause.

 

Edwin has 1o/5. Has an auto veto regardless. Sadly I think your numbers aren't too far off.

[JFD]

Got to wonder why the Canadian NHL teams are consistently worse than the American teams. Is it as simple as - the Canadian teams don't necessarily have to be good to draw in fans?

 

American teams make up 77% of the NHL and 4 of the 7 of Canadian teams are small market.