Should Blue Jays sign Cespedes to replace Bautista?

[Gorlak]

According to that one analyst at Macquarie Group.. that's a BS prediction. With oil likely to rebound to $40-50 by season's end, our dollar will be back in the $0.73-75 range by year's end. The current low dollar is due to oil being at $28/barrel and people acting like oil is a majority of our economy (which it isn't).. not economic factors. You can't produce oil at these levels--production will go down, reducing the current supply glut and boosting prices.

 

I wouldn't bet money on that, $50 by year end is more likely, but not a sure thing. It's really cheap to service wells that are already in operation and companies have bills to pay, so they will keep pumping oil until the current wells are dry. Lifting sanctions on Iran also adds another half million barrels a day and global growth concerns are creating a bearish sentiment on the demand side as well. This could drag on for years and is speeding up Canada's debt problems. My biggest concern is that the price of oil will end up inflating and then popping Canada's debt bubble, which will pop the housing bubble, which will cause a massive deleveraging that will cause a very bad recession. If that happens Canada's currency will become weaker, even if oil rebounds.

[jaysfan2014]

I wouldn't bet money on that, $50 by year end is more likely, but not a sure thing. It's really cheap to service wells that are already in operation and companies have bills to pay, so they will keep pumping oil until the current wells are dry. Lifting sanctions on Iran also adds another half million barrels a day and global growth concerns are creating a bearish sentiment on the demand side as well. This could drag on for years and is speeding up Canada's debt problems. My biggest concern is that the price of oil will end up inflating and then popping Canada's debt bubble, which will pop the housing bubble, which will cause a massive deleveraging that will cause a very bad recession. If that happens Canada's currency will become weaker, even if oil rebounds.

 

Of similar concern is the chance the Fed in the US cuts rates and does QE4--with the recession risk (if they're not there already) down there, it's looking increasingly likely, which could send our dollar soaring as well and send the US dollar plummeting due to lack of confidence in the US economy and their central bank. There's huge debt in the shale industry down there.. if production drops significantly by mid-year, $50 will easily be attainable, if not higher. I mean, the odds of rate hikes in the US have dropped significantly in recent weeks.. and their dollar has stopped rising vs. the Euro and Yen.. the only currencies it's risen against recently are the British Pound and commodity currencies such as ours.

 

And betting money on that--are you referring to the oil price? I expect it will be much higher than the $28 it is right now.. especially if OPEC decides to cut production, as current levels are causing cutbacks in spending on new production..

[Gorlak]

Of similar concern is the chance the Fed in the US cuts rates and does QE4--with the recession risk (if they're not there already) down there, it's looking increasingly likely, which could send our dollar soaring as well and send the US dollar plummeting due to lack of confidence in the US economy and their central bank. There's huge debt in the shale industry down there.. if production drops significantly by mid-year, $50 will easily be attainable, if not higher. I mean, the odds of rate hikes in the US have dropped significantly in recent weeks.. and their dollar has stopped rising vs. the Euro and Yen.. the only currencies it's risen against recently are the British Pound and commodity currencies such as ours.

 

And betting money on that--are you referring to the oil price? I expect it will be much higher than the $28 it is right now.. especially if OPEC decides to cut production, as current levels are causing cutbacks in spending on new production..

 

Although there is a chance of this, it's not nearly as likely as a strong U.S. scenario, It would be more likely to see a raise in wages and higher interest rates, but high long term unemployment could defer that for another year or two. The debate in the U.S is about whether to continue with another 3 or 4 hikes this year, not whether to raise rates let alone QE. U.S. banks are already discounted because of there exposure to shale debt, and it has virtually no risk of contagion even in a worst case scenario. Until I start seeing bankruptcy's and buyouts I won't think the end of oversupply will be close. A global downtown could make that a mote point regardless.

 

OPEC doesn't trust it's members, it's one of the reasons they haven't cut production even when most expected them to. Canada also has a higher break point on a barrel than the U.S. so anything that happens to them will happen to Canada faster. The opinions on the future growth of each country is reflected in their respective currency valuations.

[Gorlak]

I would like to add that OPEC members have the same problem as companies in that they still owe money, With low oil it means they need to sell more barrels to cover their budgets which only compounds the problem.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

.....so your saying keep Joey

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

According to that one analyst at Macquarie Group.. that's a BS prediction. With oil likely to rebound to $40-50 by season's end, our dollar will be back in the $0.73-75 range by year's end. The current low dollar is due to oil being at $28/barrel and people acting like oil is a majority of our economy (which it isn't).. not economic factors. You can't produce oil at these levels--production will go down, reducing the current supply glut and boosting prices.

 

I doubt oil get back to Fifty by the end of the year not from what I am hearing or by what I am reading out there!

Barring a good ole fashion war in the Middle East breaks out

[baseballsss]

I doubt oil get back to Fifty by the end of the year not from what I am hearing or by what I am reading out there!

Barring a good ole fashion war in the Middle East breaks out

 

Yah couple articles i read said that it was suppose to comtinue to drop and won't get any better in 2016.

[RealAccountant]

Analysts are predicting the Canadian dollar to go down to $0.59. The budget will be going down next season.

 

Which analysts are that

[RealAccountant]

I doubt oil get back to Fifty by the end of the year not from what I am hearing or by what I am reading out there!

Barring a good ole fashion war in the Middle East breaks out

 

A republican president will be enough

[RealAccountant]

Honestly 2016 is the best chance to win a WS for the Jays after that it may be till 2020 that we get another chance

[Governator]

Honestly 2016 is the best chance to win a WS for the Jays after that it may be till 2020 that we get another chance

 

Best chance maybe but they should still be very good. Losing JB or EE doesn't mean the world ends.

[RealAccountant]

Best chance maybe but they should still be very good. Losing JB or EE doesn't mean the world ends.

 

Short term hedging protects against fx

 

Long term a .60 cent loonie means Jays = Indians

 

 

Last Chance Last Dance

[Stangstag]

Short term hedging protects against fx

 

Long term a .60 cent loonie means Jays = Indians

 

 

Last Chance Last Dance

 

The dollar isn't gonna stay this low

[burlingtonbandit]

Do people not forget the Jays had the highest payroll in MLB with a s***** dollar in the early 90s?

 

Does it make a difference? Sure, but it's hardly to the degree some are making it out to be. I read the Jays receive around 100 Million in USD in revenue sharing so really you have to pay the currency cost on like 60-70 Million which isn't going to make the Jays a bottom 10 payroll. The USD exchange is just a convinient excuse Rogers uses to keep payroll down.

[BlueJaysGirl]

I remember reading years ago that MLB, at one point, provided the Expos and Jays extra money every year to help offset the difference in currency exchange. I and think I remember hearing that Beeston turned down this deal a few years ago, because Rogers was a big boy and could handle its own finances, thank you. Maybe MLB could be convinced to help the Jays in 2016 and onward.

[reedjohnsonfan]

The dollar isn't gonna stay this low

 

but do you know when it's going to recover? No you do not, nobody does.

[jaysfan2014]

It's going to start recovering sooner or later--oil can't stay this low, and the US Federal Reserve will likely not raise rates anytime soon, and may actually cut--CME odds currently project no rate hikes at all this year--if they cut in the US, their dollar will plunge.

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

[GD]

The dollar isn't gonna stay this low

 

Says who

[RealAccountant]

Oil is staying at $30 and under for 2016

[KingKat]

I remember reading years ago that MLB, at one point, provided the Expos and Jays extra money every year to help offset the difference in currency exchange. I and think I remember hearing that Beeston turned down this deal a few years ago, because Rogers was a big boy and could handle its own finances, thank you. Maybe MLB could be convinced to help the Jays in 2016 and onward.

 

The tacit agreement with the currency adjustment was that the Jays would not go over slot at the draft. The exchange was good and Beest/AA wanted to go over slot so Beest turned it down. Ironically, MLB has hard slots now and the exchange rate has tanked.

[highhard2]

Donalson to LAD for P-Julio Urias (#4 mlb top 100) + P-Jose De Leon (#23 mlb top 100) + C-Austin Barns (#9 mlb top 10 catchers)

 

Martin + Happ to SEA for P-Taijuan Walker + C- Mike Zunino +OF-Alex Jackson (#44 mlb top 100) + OF-Brayan Hernandez (#9 mlb top international prospects)

 

Tulo + Estrada to the Cubs for SS- Gleber Torres (#28 mlb top 100) + OF-Billy McKinney (#34 mlb top 100) + P-Duane Underwood (# 67 mlb top 100)

 

Hutchison + Loup to Texas for OF/SS/3B Ryan Cordell (Top 100 to me) + P-Michael Matuella (Top 100 to me)

 

Stroman

Walker

Sanchez

Osuna

Urias #4

De Leon #23

Underwood #67

Harris #80

Matuella top 100 to me

Reid-Foley

Green

 

Pillar

Pompay

McKinney #34

Jackson #44

Alford #97

Hernandez #9 INT prospect

 

Travis

Goins

Torrez #28

Cordell Top 100 to me

Urena

Nay

 

Colabello

Vlady JR

Tellez

Dean

 

Zunino

Barnes #9 C prospect

Pentacost

Jansen

 

Not the worst start to a rebuild in the 16/17 off season?

 

To bad Rogers can't see past 2016.

 

Adding Cespedes and Bastardo would free up 2 more trade pieces for the rebuild AND make TO the odds on favorite for the 2016 World Series.The prospect capital alone gets back the 30M you spend on Cespedes and Bastard.

[GD]

wat

[highhard2]

The big blowout scenario for after we win the World Series in 2016?

 

I'd also take a serious look at Wieters,Edwin,Chapman and Strasburg in the 16/17/ offseason.

Edited January 20, 2016 by highhard2

[wamco]

Happy can't be traded till june

[Jimcanuck]

Donalson to LAD for P-Julio Urias (#4 mlb top 100) + P-Jose De Leon (#23 mlb top 100) + C-Austin Barns (#9 mlb top 10 catchers)

 

Martin + Happ to SEA for P-Taijuan Walker + C- Mike Zunino +OF-Alex Jackson (#44 mlb top 100) + OF-Brayan Hernandez (#9 mlb top international prospects)

 

Tulo + Estrada to the Cubs for SS- Gleber Torres (#28 mlb top 100) + OF-Billy McKinney (#34 mlb top 100) + P-Duane Underwood (# 67 mlb top 100)

 

Hutchison + Loup to Texas for OF/SS/3B Ryan Cordell (Top 100 to me) + P-Michael Matuella (Top 100 to me)

 

Stroman

Walker

Sanchez

Osuna

Urias #4

De Leon #23

Underwood #67

Harris #80

Matuella top 100 to me

Reid-Foley

Green

 

Pillar

Pompay

McKinney #34

Jackson #44

Alford #97

Hernandez #9 INT prospect

 

Travis

Goins

Torrez #28

Cordell Top 100 to me

Urena

Nay

 

Colabello

Vlady JR

Tellez

Dean

 

Zunino

Barnes #9 C prospect

Pentacost

Jansen

 

Not the worst start to a rebuild in the 16/17 off season?

 

To bad Rogers can't see past 2016.

 

Adding Cespedes and Bastardo would free up 2 more trade pieces for the rebuild AND make TO the odds on favorite for the 2016 World Series.The prospect capital alone gets back the 30M you spend on Cespedes and Bastard.

 

You have way too much time on your hands

[Jayday]

According to that one analyst at Macquarie Group.. that's a BS prediction. With oil likely to rebound to $40-50 by season's end, our dollar will be back in the $0.73-75 range by year's end. The current low dollar is due to oil being at $28/barrel and people acting like oil is a majority of our economy (which it isn't).. not economic factors. You can't produce oil at these levels--production will go down, reducing the current supply glut and boosting prices.

 

Actually. with Iran's sanctions lifted and now able to sell their stock pile of oil, the prices will keep going down.

[aselvana]

Short term hedging protects against fx

 

Long term a .60 cent loonie means Jays = Indians

 

 

Last Chance Last Dance

 

LOL, bring back HARPER!

[puphood]

He maybe getting old and fielding ain't his strong suite but keep Joey Bats at least he comes to the game, maybe you guys forgot how Cepedis fielded for the Mets hemade Collebela look good. And for all you guys predicting the price of oil rebounding to fairy numbers in 2016 your nuts....here in Panama 0.62/lt premium gas and they import it all.....

[jaysfan2014]

He maybe getting old and fielding ain't his strong suite but keep Joey Bats at least he comes to the game, maybe you guys forgot how Cepedis fielded for the Mets hemade Collebela look good. And for all you guys predicting the price of oil rebounding to fairy numbers in 2016 your nuts....here in Panama 0.62/lt premium gas and they import it all.....

 

Production will fall off a cliff on shale wells at this level.. plus there's a risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Any sign of this could cause prices to surge..

[Jimcanuck]

LOL, bring back HARPER!

 

Harper expending all of his efforts on developing the tar sands, oil pipelines, etc at the expense of supporting research and innovation and Canada's manufacturing is why we are in this mess.