Kenta Maeda

[HERPDERP]

They made it 20M because of the Darvish craziness?

 

Yeah, and I think some JPL teams are holding on to their players in hope that they posting fee gets raised (like Hiroshim and Otani)

[KingKat]

They made it 20M because of the Darvish craziness?

 

Yeah it was ridiculous that the team had so much more leverage than the player in the old system. This new system is better for the player though it's also better for big market teams as well.

[DuckDuckGose]

Maeda is probably going to get close to $100M, over and above his posting fee. It's hard to see Shapiro being willing to shell out that much on an unknown commodity when a solid mid-rotation starter like Wei-Yin Chen can be had for half of that. I would love to see us sign Maeda and have him become the next Darvish, I just don't see it happening.

 

Agreed, I have no idea what Shapiro is thinking in terms of payroll. Lets take a hypothetical look at the financial situation anyways. If the Dodgers are shelling out $100M that $100M jumps to $150M after tax; so on a 5yr commitment the AAV jumps from $20M to $30M. Let's say the Jays offered $22M yr on a 5yr deal; $130M total commitment. That's more money for Maeda and less of a total commitment for Toronto. If you can get a guy the LAD value at $30M per (and they have a smart FO) for $22M it has to be worth a good hard look.

 

You had mentioned Chen who costs a draft pick. You'd think that they would rather have Maeda for a little more money and keep the pick. Especially considering how Shapiro has avoided FA's w/ comp attached and the amount he's talked about restocking the farm.

 

Again, I'm not saying the Jays will get him but IMO he should be at the top of their FA list.

[DuckDuckGose]

It is 20m. If you are an MLB team that isn't even going to bother submitting the posting fee then you are dumb. There is no risk at all.

 

There's no risk but if you aren't going to sign him you are better off spending the time and effort elsewhere

[Dr. Dinger]

Are they actually friends or is this just an assumption? I mean Kuma is 7 years older and they didn't even play on the same team Japan. Hard to imagine them being great buddies.

 

"Which worked out for the Red Sox, not so well for the Dodgers, who rather than trust Greinke at $35M at age 37, chose Hisashi Iwakuma at $15M at age 37. And the Dodgers will move on to another starting pitcher or two, one perhaps being Kenta Maeda, the 27-year old righthander who will be posted by the Hiroshima Carp this week. If the Diamondbacks have enough money left from signing Greinke, they will be in on Maeda, who has had a 1.60 or better earned run average for six straight years, whose wife twice took semesters studying in the U.S. and speaks English, who is a friend of Iwakuma."

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-dombrowski-ensuring-an-equiped-red-sox-pitching-staff/

[G-Snarls]

Yeah it was ridiculous that the team had so much more leverage than the player in the old system. This new system is better for the player though it's also better for big market teams as well.

 

Yeah. Darvish's team cashed in massively, and yet he is totally underpaid compared to his equals.

[KingKat]

Yeah. Darvish's team cashed in massively, and yet he is totally underpaid compared to his equals.

 

Yeah and it's not The Rangers fault. They paid what they thought Darvish was worth, it's just that 50+ million of that went to his team.

[Terminator]

You'd like to think that but the Jays are in a tough situation. Everyone has more money and they have less. Atkins already said that all the extra revenue from last year is committed and a bit of extra too because the exchange rate gobbled it all up. AA picked an excellent time to leave. The economics are really bad.

 

Yeah for sure. AA got lucky as f***.

 

He went all in when the team was 7 games back and all his moves hit and we won the division. If he went all in and it backfired he'd never have gotten another GM job again. Instead he's hailed as a genius.

 

He's the one who hamstrung the current regime and would have been in the same spot if he had stayed.

[Laika]

I don't really like the idea of locking up significant long-term funds in this jap arm when there are two incumbent Dominican bombers that need extensions...

[DuckDuckGose]

You'd like to think that but the Jays are in a tough situation. Everyone has more money and they have less. Atkins already said that all the extra revenue from last year is committed and a bit of extra too because the exchange rate gobbled it all up. AA picked an excellent time to leave. The economics are really bad.

 

I don't buy that rhetoric at all.

 

A) Rogers hedged on the 2015 payroll before; the exchange rate shouldn't matter

There is no real reason to assume the CAD will continue at a 10yr low

C) They only saw increased revenues for 2 months which already covered the exchange rate disparity for this season. Adding another big time pitcher will lead to a full season of increased revenues which should more than pay for itself + hopefully a WS appearance and all the extra benefits for Rogers (content, marketing, PR, etc)

[DuckDuckGose]

Yeah for sure. AA got lucky as f***.

 

He went all in when the team was 7 games back and all his moves hit and we won the division. If he went all in and it backfired he'd never have gotten another GM job again. Instead he's hailed as a genius.

 

He's the one who hamstrung the current regime and would have been in the same spot if he had stayed.

 

The JD and Tulo trades guaranteed he'd get another GM job regardless of the outcome in 2015.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't really like the idea of locking up significant long-term funds in this jap arm when there are two incumbent Dominican bombers that need extensions...

 

If Maeda dips in to the EE and Jose funds then they would still be able to sign one of them. It's not like it's one or the other. Let's be real though if Jose and Edwin reach FA they're walking. Someone will pay more than the Jays like every other big name FA.

[G-Snarls]

If Maeda dips in to the EE and Jose funds then they would still be able to sign one of them. It's not like it's one or the other. Let's be real though if Jose and Edwin reach FA they're walking. Someone will pay more than the Jays like every other big name FA.

 

I dunno, Bautista in particular seems pretty intent on staying here and winning

 

(though he's also the only one to complain publicly about the front office moves too so who knows...)

[KingKat]

I don't really like the idea of locking up significant long-term funds in this jap arm when there are two incumbent Dominican bombers that need extensions...

 

Well it's probably not going to happen anyways. If the Jays had the kind of money to spend on this guy, they would have been sniffing in some slightly deeper waters of the FA pool. If they had the 130 million or whatever that it would take to sign him, I doubt that they would adopt a "Maeda" or bust strategy with that money. They would be looking at other options too becaue you can't force someone to take your money. They would be sniffing around other FAs or they would have combined that Maeda money with some of the money already spent and aimed higher. They didn't. They have worked the area of the FA pool that they did worked because that's what their budget allowed.

[DuckDuckGose]

I dunno, Bautista in particular seems pretty intent on staying here and winning

 

(though he's also the only one to complain publicly about the front office moves too so who knows...)

 

He's also said repeatedly that he's earned the right to FA, he wants to see what he's worth on the open market and already gave Toronto a discount. IMO he seems as good as gone given the current ownership and payroll.

[Laika]

"Clay Davenport has translations for the Japanese leagues in 2014, and his MLB equivalent numbers for Maeda are a little depressing: a 4.09 ERA with a 5.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. That would make him more like a younger Yovani Gallardo, who the crowd says will get $56 million over four years.

 

Maeda is not the player that Tanaka was. Going into his posting, Tanaka’s league-indexed strikeout minus walk rate was 75% better than the one Maeda just showed over the last three years. Tanaka’s signature pitch, the splitter, is better than Maeda’s slider, and he has more velocity, and he showed a better walk rate. The contract should reflect those facts.

 

It’s guesswork any way you slice it, and it’s fair to wonder what Maeda himself is expecting. Masahiro Tanaka got so much more than the numbers we are talking about here (seven years, $155 million). But if his new American team gives Maeda any more than six years and $85 million, they’ll be paying only for his upside with no reflection of the risk he represents. A better contract would pay him like a Porcello or Gallardo and hope for a Zimmermann."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-should-teams-spend-on-kenta-maeda/

[DuckDuckGose]

Why would his BB/9 jump so much? That's not a trend we've seen with other NPB pitchers.

[Nafro]

I don't buy that rhetoric at all.

 

A) Rogers hedged on the 2015 payroll before; the exchange rate shouldn't matter

There is no real reason to assume the CAD will continue at a 10yr low

C) They only saw increased revenues for 2 months which already covered the exchange rate disparity for this season. Adding another big time pitcher will lead to a full season of increased revenues which should more than pay for itself + hopefully a WS appearance and all the extra benefits for Rogers (content, marketing, PR, etc)

 

You are at least correct on this. My guess is we reach a 20-30 year low. You do understand that OPEC is going to pump oil until every non-conventional oil play,etc, is not able to produce. They see the world is trying to get off its "oil addiction" and they are certainly going to control that market until they do. I talked to a realtor from Calgary, who told me the number of wells Alberta will be using in 2016, is the same number that were producing in 1983.

 

How long do you think hedging is good for? The dollar is not coming back up any time soon, not while oil is $35. The Canadian economy is hedged on resources. I don't know how you think exchange rate is not going to matter. Part of the revenue stream has been cut by 10-15 percent. Salary expenses are still coming out in US dollars. All the revenue that comes in from tickets, Canadian Advertising, etc, moving forward is in CAD.

 

You can't expect us to sign Maeda, or another free agent pitcher if you want, its very unlikely to happen. As has been pointed out, Maeda is far from a sure thing. Huge amounts of money in large long term pitching contracts, is not a good model for Major League success. How many playoff wins did we get out of Mark Buehrle's contract. How many playoff wins has LAD got out of Kershaw/Greinke's contracts over last 3 years? How many playoff wins did Washington get from Max Scherzer last year.

[Dr. Dinger]

How many playoff wins did Washington get from Max Scherzer last year.

 

Irrelevant question. The Nats got 6.4 WAR (approx $50M value) from Scherzer for only $22M salary. It's not Max's fault the rest of the team (minus Harper) shat the bed. Scherzer was so good in 2015 that he could provide 0 WAR in 2016 and the Nats would still break even on the first two years of his deal.

[DuckDuckGose]

You do understand that OPEC is going to pump oil until every non-conventional oil play,etc, is not able to produce.

 

The Oil sands are heavily subsidized by the federal government. Oil needs to be trading above $100/barrel for the oil sands to be profitable and it will be trading at that mark in the near future ( at least if you believe the Saudi's).

 

They see the world is trying to get off its "oil addiction" and they are certainly going to control that market until they do. I talked to a realtor from Calgary, who told me the number of wells Alberta will be using in 2016, is the same number that were producing in 1983.

 

There is way more to the economy than just oil which will rebound eventually.

 

How long do you think hedging is good for?

 

Obviously depends on the circumstances. Rogers hedges for the upcoming year but I'm sure they have USD stashed somewhere for weak economic times like right now.

 

The dollar is not coming back up any time soon, not while oil is $35.

 

There are no projections that have oil at $35 barrel long term. It's supposed to be back over $100 mid-2016.

 

The Canadian economy is hedged on resources. I don't know how you think exchange rate is not going to matter.

 

Resources; not oil. Natural gas, metals/pre/minerals, lumber, agriculture, etc. Oil being down hurts but it's not a long term thing.

 

Part of the revenue stream has been cut by 10-15 percent. Salary expenses are still coming out in US dollars. All the revenue that comes in from tickets, Canadian Advertising, etc, moving forward is in CAD.

 

If revenue is down 15% you better find a way to make up that money. Like fielding a competitive team. No reason to just break even. The economy is good enough for the Jays to be profitable at over $160M USD.

You can't expect us to sign Maeda, or another free agent pitcher if you want, its very unlikely to happen.

 

All I expect them to do is try. I'd never want them to make a bad deal but they should be actively pursuing Maeda.

 

As has been pointed out, Maeda is far from a sure thing. Huge amounts of money in large long term pitching contracts, is not a good model for Major League success.

 

Happ and Maeda would be their only pitching commitment beyond 2017; that's the exact strategy you're calling for. You also don't improve w/o taking risks. Any FA signing is assuming risk, so set a number that makes sense and try and get him. Don't make a bad deal. It's zero risk to be in the bidding.

 

How many playoff wins did we get out of Mark Buehrle's contract. How many playoff wins has LAD got out of Kershaw/Greinke's contracts over last 3 years? How many playoff wins did Washington get from Max Scherzer last year.

 

I didn't sign any of those deals. The Marlins signed Buehrle and it may have been their best FA signing in franchise history. Backloaded the deal and shipped him for when he got expensive. Great move. The Greinke signing was also a great deal for the Dodgers. More than paid for itself. Who knows about Kershaw or Scherzer they just started their contracts.

[Nafro]

Irrelevant question. The Nats got 6.4 WAR (approx $50M value) from Scherzer for only $22M salary. It's not Max's fault the rest of the team (minus Harper) shat the bed. Scherzer was so good in 2015 that he could provide 0 WAR in 2016 and the Nats would still break even on the first two years of his deal.

 

And if that happens that means they spent 60 million to one pitcher over two years, and did not make the playoffs. (Assuming Scherzer at 0 WAR means Nats don't make playoffs) And the size of his contract and the need to pay Harper likely is part of the reason Jordan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and quite possibly Stephen Strausberg are not able to be re-signed.

 

I'm going to say the Washington Nationals make the playoff's more times prior to Scherzer being signed. Than over the course of his 7 year contract.

[Dr. Dinger]

And if that happens that means they spent 60 million to one pitcher over two years, and did not make the playoffs. (Assuming Scherzer at 0 WAR means Nats don't make playoffs) And the size of his contract and the need to pay Harper likely is part of the reason Jordan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and quite possibly Stephen Strausberg are not able to be re-signed.

 

I'm going to say the Washington Nationals make the playoff's more times prior to Scherzer being signed. Than over the course of his 7 year contract.

 

The Nationals mismanaging their payroll and/or not making the playoffs has nothing to do with Scherzer until he provides a poor return on his salary, which so far has been far from the case.

[Nafro]

You both make good points. I just think with the atrophy of pitchers, tying large money in them is not ideal.

[Nafro]

The Nationals mismanaging their payroll and/or not making the playoffs has nothing to do with Scherzer until he provides a poor return on his salary, which so far has been far from the case.

 

That is to assume that how WAR is calculated and value assigned to it, is absolutely correct. I'm not saying it's not, I just would say at this point its an evolving model.

 

You are correct about Scherzer and the value he provided I might add.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Nafro

[DuckDuckGose]

You both make good points. I just think with the atrophy of pitchers, tying large money in them is not ideal.

 

I don't either though, that David Price contract is ugly. Very happy to see him walk on those terms. That's why I like the idea of Maeda so much, bigtime upside, no comp and relatively cheap (I'd guess less than Jordan Zimmermann including the posting fee). That's an asset that doesn't come around very often for a mid-payroll team like the Jays.

[Nafro]

I don't either though, that David Price contract is ugly. Very happy to see him walk on those terms. That's why I like the idea of Maeda so much, bigtime upside, no comp and relatively cheap (I'd guess less than Jordan Zimmermann including the posting fee). That's an asset that doesn't come around very often for a mid-payroll team like the Jays.

 

I'll admit I liked the idea of Maeda, when the talk was 80 million (including posting fee). 120 million is just too much, IMO.

[DuckDuckGose]

I'll admit I liked the idea of Maeda, when the talk was 80 million (including posting fee). 120 million is just too much, IMO.

 

That's very fair and I think the ultimate factor. If you only value Maeda at $80M you will more than likely outbid. If you value him at $120M you're probably in the conversation.

[Thomas Malthus]

Nice profile of Maeda: http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/12/13/9882352/international-free-agent-profile-kenta-maeda

 

I don't either though, that David Price contract is ugly. Very happy to see him walk on those terms. That's why I like the idea of Maeda so much, bigtime upside, no comp and relatively cheap (I'd guess less than Jordan Zimmermann including the posting fee). That's an asset that doesn't come around very often for a mid-payroll team like the Jays.

 

Does he though? That's the big question.

[highhard2]

"The Oil sands are heavily subsidized by the federal government. Oil needs to be trading above $100/barrel for the oil sands to be profitable and it will be trading at that mark in the near future ( at least if you believe the Saudi's)."

 

What you should do is just shut the f*** up.You know not of which you speak.

 

I actually agree that taking a run at Meada is a great idea.However,having a total f***ing moron like you advocate the idea is giving me serious reservations.

[Jonn]

Signing these Japanese players is still a bigger risk than Price, Grenkie, Cueto ect. The posting fee cap really helps the player more than anything. I don't expect the the Blue Jays to be involved at all. They seem pretty content with the current rotation. Sure that pisses people off but it is what it is.