JA Happ Signing: Good/Bad?

[Angrioter]

Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Stanton

 

Carlos Correa

[GD]

Yeah, Bryant and Correa if we're talking pre-arb guys. Not sure about Machado. I don't trust him to stay healthy.

 

Wouldn't trust Correa. You have to buy into that he's a 24 HR/FB% guy and disregard his meh AAA performance. He's amazing but I wouldn't throw $200m at him or group him with those guys, yet.

[Frenchsoup]

Wouldn't trust Correa. You have to buy into that he's a 24 HR/FB% guy and disregard his meh AAA performance. He's amazing but I wouldn't throw $200m at him or group him with those guys, yet.

 

I believe, better head on his shoulders then say a Machado.

[Spanky99]

Can you just admit you don't have 5 guys BTS?

[Frenchsoup]

Is Bryant even a plus defender at 3rd? I see him as the right-handed Chris Davis.

[Spanky99]

Dorks!

[BTS]

$200 over 10 years would be a no brainer IMO. Heyward is the most "well rounded" player in baseball, and that may lead to better aging. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-is-baseballs-most-well-rounded-position-player/

 

What do you think St. Louis is thinking? You don't hear much about them as a potential destination, but they have a need, it's probably just a ~10M raise this year, and Holliday is off the books soon. Is it just aversion to the risk of a 10-year commitment?

[GD]

Is Bryant even a plus defender at 3rd? I see him as the right-handed Chris Davis.

 

jesus

[Frenchsoup]

jesus

 

I mean he's solid. Not Arenado/Donaldson/Machado lite though.

[Spanky99]

Is Bryant even a plus defender at 3rd? I see him as the right-handed Chris Davis.

 

You can't think that, or are you reading old scout s***?

[Spanky99]

Hmmm....

[Jimcanuck]

wasn't long ago many here wanted Lawrie signed long term, and claiming Lawrie > Machado

 

things change fast in baseball

[Stangstag]

wasn't long ago many here wanted Lawrie signed long term, and claiming Lawrie > Machado

 

things change fast in baseball

 

I don't think anyone with a brain thought that Lawrie would be a better player than Machado. Machado was an elite SS prospect.

[dineke]

I don't think anyone with a brain thought that Lawrie would be a better player than Machado. Machado was an elite SS prospect.

 

After 2011 there were some people who thought he would be better than trout...

[GD]

I mean he's solid. Not Arenado/Donaldson/Machado lite though.

 

He's far better than Arenado in all aspects and a much better asset than Donaldson and Machado.

[Frenchsoup]

He's far better than Arenado in all aspects and a much better asset than Donaldson and Machado.

 

True.

[CJ-Freeway]

Someone told me today that he feels Pillar is very close to reaching Trout level. I wish I were making this up. Ha ha!

 

LMAO

 

 

cf

[Key22]

Heyward will only be 26 next year. He is probably a top 10 projected position player by WAR.

 

We would expect him to approach 5 WAR in 2016, actually get better in 2017, and then stay basically that good for a year or two before decline kicks in.

 

Which is to say that in year TEN of a Heyward contract, we might expect him to still be a league average player, or thereabouts.

 

You could pay Jason Heyward $200M and actually expect to get a massive surplus on that deal.

 

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]WAR[/td]

[td]$/WAR[/td]

[td]VALUE[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.7[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]37.6[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.95[/td]

[td]8.56[/td]

[td]42.37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.95[/td]

[td]9.25[/td]

[td]45.76[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]4.45[/td]

[td]9.98[/td]

[td]44.43[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]3.95[/td]

[td]10.78[/td]

[td]42.59[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]3.45[/td]

[td]11.65[/td]

[td]40.18[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2.95[/td]

[td]12.58[/td]

[td]37.10[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2.45[/td]

[td]13.58[/td]

[td]33.28[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]1.95[/td]

[td]14.67[/td]

[td]28.61[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]1.45[/td]

[td]15.84[/td]

[td]22.97[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Surplus[/td]

[td][/td]

[td]374.90[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Even if you take out inflation entirely and have a static $/WAR of 8M for the next ten years, he still comes out to like $282M in value.

 

It's just so rare to have a guy that good and young hit free agency. Any GM that maxed out their budget in the last couple of years on a pitcher in their 30s should be pulling their hair out of frustration from putting themselves out of the Heyward sweepstakes.

 

This is an enticing player but I suppose the reservation people have is the power versus defense and speed thing - speed and defense drop off and he doesn't hit for power. An OPS under .800 for a RF - nothing exactly leaps off the page to me. Would it be outrageous to compare him to someone like Alex Rios circa 26 years old. 5 tool player without a single tool that really blows you away.

 

EE and or Bautista will likely be traded or let go. When I look at this guy I kinda of think maybe there is more in there - a left handed bat in the Jays' order in a homer hitting park and surrounding him with our line-up - man...You stick him in left field for 2016 and if Bautista does leave or moved to first then you move Heyward over to right. Would 10 years $170million get it done? The Jays could probably take that on - you move Revere and his $7 million and they're not taking on a back breaking deal. In five years the way salaries are heading today's $17 million will likely look like $10 million in 2020.

 

I guess I just like big offense from corner outfielders - I like to see the 30 homer and .900+ OPS for the $20 million.

 

According to baseball reference Heyward put up more war than Jose Bautista but I can't really see how the Jays win more games last year with Heyward in RF over Jose. If Jose won 10 games with his bat and lost one game with his defense and Heyward (being a far inferior hitter) won two games with his bat - does Heyward's defense really win 7 games.

 

My issue with the stats is - I want to see game situational evidence - where we have a 1 run lead in the ninth and the bases loaded and a ball is hit to RF and Bautista misses the ball and the Jays lose the game - does Heyward get that ball? If so then in the "real world" Heyward wins a game that Bautista would have us lose - Do the stats indicate direct influence on runs scored or just add the overall number of balls hit to RF that one guy gets and the other guy doesn't. I just can't believe that any team in baseball - (if you took money and age out of the equation) and JUST looked at the two players in a one year 2015 vacuum would not rather have had Jose than Heyward.

 

The old school baseball approach was to be rock solid up the middle defensively(C, SS, 2B, CF and Pitching (ie excellent pitching) and have big hitters on the corners (LF,RF,3B,1B).

 

The Jays sort of have this old school approach now and it got us into the playoffs. Elite D at short and second (and third - bonus) and big hitters at RF, 1B, 3B, DH and above average hitting at C and SS to compensate for the lighter bat in left.

 

I guess I'd just like to see a 25 homer bat at least for the 20 million per. But we're going to need a right fielder pretty soon. Jose maybe has one year left out there, maybe two before he becomes a big liability. And would our turf devalue Heyward sooner than later?

 

I see why the pundits are confounded by Heyward - he is an interesting FA. I mean if the guy finds a power stroke and becomes a 35 homer guy (and man he looks sometimes like that is in there) he could become the bargain of the decade. The Yankees seem to have the money to take those gambles.

[G-Snarls]

I guess it's good, but I'd vote neutral if given the choice. I think Happ will give us value on 3/36, but there are other pitchers that I would have pursued first. I'll give Shapiro the benefit of the doubt for now and assume that checked in on these other guys and got a pretty firm 'no'.

 

This exactly, IYAM

 

Happ has been decent back of the rotation starter with no injury concerns

 

I like the signing just fine (on it's own merit), even though I don't love the overall rotation by any stretch.

 

Also, I think this is probably it for the rotation. However, with this offense and IF defense the team should be in good shape as long as the bullpen is addressed (and I trust that it will be)

[G-Snarls]

What do you think St. Louis is thinking? You don't hear much about them as a potential destination, but they have a need, it's probably just a ~10M raise this year, and Holliday is off the books soon. Is it just aversion to the risk of a 10-year commitment?

 

Different players, ages, etc, but there was zero chance they were going to go 10 years with Pujols, and he was their face of the franchise player

[KingKat]

 

Also, I think this is probably it for the rotation. However, with this offense and IF defense the team should be in good shape as long as the bullpen is addressed (and I trust that it will be)

 

I don't think they're done. The current pitching staff has 5 200 IP seasons collectively and all 5 were by R.A. Dickey. One mediocre to good innnings eater and 4-5 150 IP guys isn't really a deep rotation and we're to understand that the plan was to build a deep rotation rather than put all their eggs in one basket and focus on an ace. Though the depth is a lot better than it was when they started, I'm not so sure it's where it need to be quite yet.

 

At this point, I woudn't count Diamond as anything more than AAA filler and I'm not convinced the org wants to reverse course on Sanchez and Osuna. Those options would have to be seriously condidered if they don't bring in anyone else but I think they will bring someone in to make them 7 deep counting Hutch.

[BigCecil]

Someone told me today that he feels Pillar is very close to reaching Trout level. I wish I were making this up. Ha ha!

 

Was it Pillar who said it...tweeting to Wilner again?

[puphood]

Between the 2 starters 16 mill in 2017 and they are at best number 3's and we gave up a strong bull pen arm. I hope this is not a repeat of what Shitpero did to the Indians. I guess we will find out shortly as aces like Zimmerman are starting to sign.......

[TBJ12]

Between the 2 starters 16 mill in 2017 and they are at best number 3's and we gave up a strong bull pen arm. I hope this is not a repeat of what Shitpero did to the Indians. I guess we will find out shortly as aces like Zimmerman are starting to sign.......

 

2015

JA Happ 3.3 WAR

Jordan Zimmermann 3.0 WAR

 

Steamer 2016

JA Happ 1.8 WAR

Jordan Zimmermann 2.5 WAR

 

The Happ deal is looking a lot better already.

[BTS]

Steamer has adjusted Zimmermann's projection post-signing: 4.07 FIP and 2.5 fWAR in 200 IP, with his K-rate dropping to 6.67/9.

[Boxcar]

Steamer has adjusted Zimmermann's projection post-signing: 4.07 FIP and 2.5 fWAR in 200 IP, with his K-rate dropping to 6.67/9.

 

Lol wut

Wai

[Dr. Dinger]

Lol wut

Wai

 

Probably cuz DHs strike out less than pitchers. God ur dumn.

[Boxcar]

Probably cuz DHs strike out less than pitchers. God ur dumn.

 

Dropping half a win seems excessive

[BTS]

Dropping half a win seems excessive

 

Wasn't he at 2.8 fWAR pre-trade? A half-win projected drop from 2015 is pretty reasonable given that he's 30 next year.

[Dr. Dinger]

Dropping half a win seems excessive

 

I was referring to K rate and thereby FIP. I'm pretty sure Steamer just pulls WAR projections out of it's cyber anus this time of the year so you probably shouldn't bother getting worked up.