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Breaking: Estrada Extension?

King

By King
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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That's fair, but I would hate to see the development of Osuna wasted as a reliever again over the inconsistent Hutch. I'd rather Hutch be in AAA until he dominates, and let Osuna start the year as the 5th guy. Sanchez should just be traded if he's not going start in the minors, it's only a matter of time before his BABIP balloons and his ERA resembles his FIP with his current repertoire.

 

I think Sanchez is an effective arm out of the BP if used in an appropriate leverage role against RHH. If he miraculously improves his command/ K ration...then great, but I don't see that happening.

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CJ-Freeway FCL Blue Jays

CJ-Freeway

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Hutch is going to have a big year this year I can almost guarantee it. No pressure on being the #1 guy and he is still young. Sanchez to the pen for life.

 

I wouldn't count on that to plan for 2016. He was very shaky in 2015 so I would rather give that 5th spot to someone else.

THANOS FCL Blue Jays

THANOS

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
To be fair he's played the majority of his career in the NL, it takes a bit of time to catch up on a slew of new hitters tendencies. Between learning to catch a knuckleball along with getting familiar with new pitchers, including two midseason with Price & Stroman, probably somewhat tough to keep up with studying hitters zones as well. I think he'll have a better year next season especially if he's not catching Dickey.

 

I hope you're right and that's all it is. I have a good memory of what Navarro was calling last year to help Estrada be effective and it's all about calling pitches in unpredictable counts and locations (high fastballs to take advantage of spin rate, or down and away changeups). We'll see what happens I guess.

 

I think Sanchez is an effective arm out of the BP if used in an appropriate leverage role against RHH. If he miraculously improves his command/ K ration...then great, but I don't see that happening.

 

I suppose he is, just not fun to watch, personally, and he also seems like a ticking BABIP timebomb.

dineke FCL Blue Jays

dineke

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Sanchez would be good if Gibby didn't have a hard-on for him and pitched him in high leverage situations against a lefty or when you need a strikeout.
FrozenRopes New Hampshire Fisher Cats

FrozenRopes

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
What did the sabre metrics say about Estrada? He had one good season. I like the signing, but I wonder what the stats predict. Also, good on Shapiro getting a guy to stay when his personal catcher leaves.
Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
What did the sabre metrics say about Estrada? He had one good season. I like the signing, but I wonder what the stats predict. Also, good on Shapiro getting a guy to stay when his personal catcher leaves.

 

The saber metrics are confused

Governator Vancouver Canadians

Governator

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
What did the sabre metrics say about Estrada? He had one good season. I like the signing, but I wonder what the stats predict. Also, good on Shapiro getting a guy to stay when his personal catcher leaves.

 

I don't know why a lot of people assume he's only had 1 good year. In his last 4 years he's actually only had one bad year which was 2014, in fact in 2012 he had a 3.3 fWAR season, far better than his 1.8 this year. He's been a consistent FIP beater during that time and has kept his BABIP far below league average throughout his career. Check out the article Gsnarles posted, it's a good read.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The saber metrics are confused

 

Yeah instead of regressing to career norms he just got stronger at the end which made everyone except the most dogmatic FIP, xFIP worshipers consider that there might be something there. His track record as a FIP beater didn't really exist before this season so some skepticism is definitely warranted but some openness is warranted too.

GeorgiaPeach First Round Pick

GeorgiaPeach

Verified Member
Posted
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If Hutch has a great year, Osuna should start in AAA, and Sanchez should start in AA to completely refine his delivery and pitch selection (hopefully Shapiro's guys can work their magic).

 

Are you saying that for 2017?

GeorgiaPeach First Round Pick

GeorgiaPeach

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
you can tell Estrada's agent keeps leaking details to the media hoping some desperate team will give them a bigger offer.

 

If they're hung up on numbers and Estrada and his agent want more, then let him walk.

 

Comp pick + plenty of FA options are better than being held hostage by an early 30's recent swingman.

DerangedIdoit Prep Ball

DerangedIdoit

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
That's fair, but I would hate to see the development of Osuna wasted as a reliever again over the inconsistent Hutch. I'd rather Hutch be in AAA until he dominates, and let Osuna start the year as the 5th guy. Sanchez should just be traded if he's not going start in the minors, it's only a matter of time before his BABIP balloons and his ERA resembles his FIP with his current repertoire.

 

As a reliever last year Sanchez had a FIP of 3.13 in 26.1 IP. Small sample size but he also had an awesome FIP in 2014 as well. I think he'll be a great reliever so if they leave him there for next year I'm fine with it. If they decide that he should be a starter next year he needs to develop consistent control.

Governator Vancouver Canadians

Governator

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
As a reliever last year Sanchez had a FIP of 3.13 in 26.1 IP. Small sample size but he also had an awesome FIP in 2014 as well. I think he'll be a great reliever so if they leave him there for next year I'm fine with it. If they decide that he should be a starter next year he needs to develop consistent control.

 

 

He'll never succeed as a starter until he can get lefties out and he'd fair much better as a reliever in his current form if Gibby stops setting him up for failure. Putting him in situations against multiple lefties or bringing him in with runners in scoring position is just poor decision making.

JaysAllMighty New Hampshire Fisher Cats

JaysAllMighty

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Starting to wonder why this hasn't been finished.

 

Why was the deal leaked? Shopping him around hoping for a better deal. I really don't care if he signs or not. We have plenty of other options beside him.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The guy is getting his physical done most likely. It can be a lenghty process. Everyone should stop hitting the panic button.

 

There's nothing to panic about anyways. It's not big deal either way. We can live with Estrada, we can live with putting the money somewhere else too. This deal won't make or break the offseason.

JaysAllMighty New Hampshire Fisher Cats

JaysAllMighty

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Estrada's agent must be earning his money today! Wouldnt be surprised if someone offers him a 3 or 3+1 @ 10.5-11 AAV

 

He's got less then one hour to get it done

CJ-Freeway FCL Blue Jays

CJ-Freeway

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Why was the deal leaked? Shopping him around hoping for a better deal. I really don't care if he signs or not. We have plenty of other options beside him.

 

What other options?

 

1-Stro

2-Dickey

3- Hutch? (Lol)

4- ??

5- ????

CJ-Freeway FCL Blue Jays

CJ-Freeway

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The Free Agent Market

 

So you're going to sign 2 FA pitchers while hoping that Hutch pulls off a decent season as a starter? I personally think that this is a recipe for disaster.

Cyborg FCL Blue Jays

Cyborg

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
So you're going to sign 2 FA pitchers while hoping that Hutch pulls off a decent season as a starter? I personally think that this is a recipe for disaster.

Signing Estrada is a free agent signing.

Orgfiller All-Star

Orgfiller

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So you're going to sign 2 FA pitchers while hoping that Hutch pulls off a decent season as a starter? I personally think that this is a recipe for disaster.

 

Have you taken a look at this year's FA pitching class?

CJ-Freeway FCL Blue Jays

CJ-Freeway

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Signing Estrada is a free agent signing.

 

Re-read my post. I was replying to JaysAllMighty, who was saying that NOT signing Estrada would not be a big deal considering "we have other options".

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
So you're going to sign 2 FA pitchers while hoping that Hutch pulls off a decent season as a starter? I personally think that this is a recipe for disaster.

 

How is that a recipe for disaster? There are like 30 viable free agent starters.

 

Stroman

FA

Dickey

FA

Hutchison/Hendriks/Osuna

 

Either Estrada is one of the FA starters, or he's not and the team gets a comp pick. Either works.

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