Offseason Roster Thread

[Laika]

I'd consider him for the right price, but only as depth after a top 4 of Stro, FA #2, Dickey, and Estrada. 30 starts of an ERA between 4 and 4.5 is what it is. I don't care if it comes from Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, or Mike Pelfrey, as long as it is cheap. I'm honestly warming to the idea throwing 3-4 mil at Joe Blanton as a long guy. The fact that he made it to the Pirates on waivers shows than he isn't valued much, but he can't be worse than Scott Copeland.

 

I think in the free agent contest I said Pelfrey would get a 3 year deal from some team like Philly to eat innings.

 

If it's a one year deal and sufficiently cheap, and the team has already bolstered the rotation above him, and there are not really any other options, then yeah, I could be fine with it.

 

I'm high on Trevor Cahill as my long-man #6 candidate. I did a list of similar targets a few weeks ago: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5700-Free-Agent-Pitching?p=800869&highlight=Blanton#post800869

[admin]

Then I'll make you see

 

- More than 50% of his MiLB innings came in his last 2 seasons (2013 and 2014), which were both very bad and not promising. So for the majority of the time he sucked.

- Scouting becomes less relevant as you climb the MiLB ladder; statistics become more relevant as you climb the MiLB ladder. In rookie ball you can almost throw the stats out the window and listen to the scouts; in full season ball and the upper minors statistics drive the projection bus.

- Sanchez is adored by scouts but once the statistics began to paint a more accurate pitcher of who he actually is, it became apparent that he was and is bad at being a starting pitcher. When the statistics began to really matter, he really sucked.

 

He was a s***** minor league starter, as far as prospects are considered, all things considered.

 

I don't want to say any more on the topic because I don't hate Aaron Sanchez and I hate talking in absolutes with sincerity. Anybody in the game can develop into a good player. He could still figure out how to start baseball games - he has some of the tools - it's just not likely, specifically because he's never really been good at it as a pro.

 

His 2013 maybe wasn't great, but he still received the most number of #1 votes in the midseason prospect ranking. To be fair his first half was better. But I still wouldn't call 2013 bad. I mean obviously people wanted the walks to go down but it wasn't far off from the year before where people were so high on him. After 2013 you said, "He didn't really take a step back last year, he just treaded water." But now it was 'very bad' and 'not promising'. And you also said he could still be a legitimate ace.

[Grant77]

I think in the free agent contest I said Pelfrey would get a 3 year deal from some team like Philly to eat innings.

 

If it's a one year deal and sufficiently cheap, and the team has already bolstered the rotation above him, and there are not really any other options, then yeah, I could be fine with it.

 

I'm high on Trevor Cahill as my long-man #6 candidate. I did a list of similar targets a few weeks ago: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5700-Free-Agent-Pitching?p=800869&highlight=Blanton#post800869

 

I was quite surprised when I saw Cahill's numbers during the Cubs playoff series. His velocity spiked a touch, but his pitch usage was the same and none of them really stood out as having increased effectiveness. I'd be curious to know what drove his success.

[Spanky__99]

His 2013 maybe wasn't great, but he still received the most number of #1 votes in the midseason prospect ranking. To be fair his first half was better. But I still wouldn't call 2013 bad. I mean obviously people wanted the walks to go down but it wasn't far off from the year before where people were so high on him. After 2013 you said, "He didn't really take a step back last year, he just treaded water." But now it was 'very bad' and 'not promising'. And you also said he could still be a legitimate ace.

 

Maybe he should follow your posts and settle in on an argument ju1ced? Or would they be conveniently missing...errr...regardless opinions change over the years, guys evolve or s*** the bed, climb off your horse, what was your opinion of Sanchez?

[Laika]

His 2013 maybe wasn't great, but he still received the most number of #1 votes in the midseason prospect ranking. To be fair his first half was better. But I still wouldn't call 2013 bad. I mean obviously people wanted the walks to go down but it wasn't far off from the year before where people were so high on him. After 2013 you said, "He didn't really take a step back last year, he just treaded water." But now it was 'very bad' and 'not promising'. And you also said he could still be a legitimate ace.

 

Yeah but what do I know?

 

His 2013 looks worse now because it was part of a downward trend. Fair or not, the optics are different. When you're looking at his minor league career in total, it's step one down to starting pitcher irrelevance.

 

In context it was just 86 mediocre innings in Dunedin. In hindsight it was the beginning of the end.

[GD]

What relevance do prospect rankings from 2013 hold on November 17, 2015? This is baseball . s*** changes quick

[GoJays]

I've always had his back per se, but last year he should've been in Buffalo working on his secondary pitches and command.

 

Exactly. And so should have Osuna. And that is where they should be this year but since we have a need of at least 3 pitchers and only 20 mil to spend they will both be in the bull pen.

[Grant77]

Exactly. And so should have Osuna. And that is where they should be this year but since we have a need of at least 3 pitchers and only 20 mil to spend they will both be in the bull pen.

 

There's no good reason to put either guy back in AAA after they have experienced success in the majors.

[THANOS]

There's no good reason to put either guy back in AAA after they have experienced success in the majors.

 

There is if you want to stretch Osuna out as a starter and attempt to fix Sanchez where the stakes aren't high.

 

If it was possible, I would trade for Carter Capps, sign Bastaro/Sipp, Kelley/Lowe, and 1 of Kazmir/Iwakuma/Leake/Shark, then hope Hutch rebounds as the 5th guy.

 

This would allow for Osuna and Sanchez to start in AAA until an injury/poor performance creates an opening for whomever is performing better.

 

Opening Day:

Rotation:

1) Stro

2) FA #2

3) Estrada

4) Dickey

5) Hutch

 

BP:

CL) Capps

SU) Cecil

3) Hendriks

4) Kelley/Lowe

5) Bastardo/Sipp

6) FA long relief

 

I would prefer this more than anything.

[GoJays]

There's no good reason to put either guy back in AAA after they have experienced success in the majors.

 

I think the best plan if they had the money would be to sign a Iwakuma / Lackey type and replace them in the bull pen then have Hutch, Sanchez and Osuna compete for the 5th starter with the other two in AAA as the 6th and 7th starters. Unfortunately they don't have enough budget room.

[Grant77]

I think the best plan if they had the money would be to sign a Iwakuma / Lackey type and replace them in the bull pen then have Hutch, Sanchez and Osuna compete for the 5th starter with the other two in AAA as the 6th and 7th starters. Unfortunately they don't have enough budget room.

 

There's enough budget room, but they aren't going to do that either way. We're built to contend now and have two talented pitchers on the roster, so we're going to use them. Sanchez is what he is, a great reliever and an average starter. There's no 'fixing him' that can be done in AAA, as he's got a perfect delivery and still can't command. Osuna is more of an unknown, but he's going to put up a couple of WAR either way.

[Spanky__99]

There's no good reason to put either guy back in AAA after they have experienced success in the majors.

 

Maybe not this year at worst, keep Osuna for a year but stretch him in the spring, load as many innings as possible, Sanchez needs Buffalo. If all fails, another pen arm.

[Spanky__99]

There is if you want to stretch Osuna out as a starter and attempt to fix Sanchez where the stakes aren't high.

 

If it was possible, I would trade for Carter Capps, sign Bastaro/Sipp, Kelley/Lowe, and 1 of Kazmir/Iwakuma/Leake/Shark, then hope Hutch rebounds as the 5th guy.

 

This would allow for Osuna and Sanchez to start in AAA until an injury/poor performance creates an opening for whomever is performing better.

 

Opening Day:

Rotation:

1) Stro

2) FA #2

3) Estrada

4) Dickey

5) Hutch

 

BP:

CL) Capps

SU) Cecil

3) Hendriks

4) Kelley/Lowe

5) Bastardo/Sipp

6) FA long relief

 

I would prefer this more than anything.

 

How much money, do you think they have?

[Grant77]

Maybe not this year at worst, keep Osuna for a year but stretch him in the spring, load as many innings as possible, Sanchez needs Buffalo. If all fails, another pen arm.

 

Flaws and all, Sanchez is an excellent reliever. Sending him down when we're going for a championship isn't smart. I'd have him in the rotation as things stand now, but that can be debated.

[Spanky__99]

Flaws and all, Sanchez is an excellent reliever. Sending him down when we're going for a championship isn't smart. I'd have him in the rotation as things stand now, but that can be debated.

 

Sure it can... these guys can move down and evolve, or be used, depends what the FO does regardless.

[THANOS]

How much money, do you think they have?

 

Carter Capps - League min. (.500)

Kazmir/Iwakuma/Leake - 3yrs at 14 AAV

Shark - 4yrs at 16 AAV

1) Antonio Bastardo and Shawn Kelley - 2yrs at 8 AAV total

2) Tony Sipp and Mark Lowe - 2yrs at 9 AAV total

FA long relief - 1-2M?

 

Total: 21.5 - 26.5M AAV

 

That's not that crazy and perfectly possible if LaCava actually means what he says with the whole "resources will be available". You could always choose to fill the FA long relief and Lowe/Kelley's spot internally or via Bargain bin to save 5-6M if need be. I don't think it's unreasonable.

[Spanky__99]

Carter Capps - League min. (.500)

Kazmir/Iwakuma/Leake - 3yrs at 14 AAV

Shark - 4yrs at 16 AAV

1) Antonio Bastardo and Shawn Kelley - 2yrs at 8 AAV total

2) Tony Sipp and Mark Lowe - 2yrs at 9 AAV total

FA long relief - 1-2M?

 

Total: 21.5 - 26.5M AAV

 

That's not that crazy and perfectly possible if LaCava actually means what he says with the whole "resources will be available". You could always choose to fill the FA long relief and Lowe/Kelley's spot internally or via Bargain bin to save 5-6M if need be. I don't think it's unreasonable.

 

Dude, you continue to dream, with crazy absurd trade offers, this isn't a video game?

That's absurd, and unbelievable.

[Grant77]

Sure it can... these guys can move down and evolve, or be used, depends what the FO does regardless.

 

Thoughts on this pipe dream roster?

 

Stroman

Iwakuma (3/42)

Dickey

Estrada

Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna

 

Osuna/Sanchez

Cecil

Lowe (2/8)

Hendriks

McAllister (and T.J. House for Revere, sign Aoki 2/14)

Loup

Blanton (1/4)/Hutch

[Spanky__99]

My post about your silly dreams is just as tight. FA, is a crap shoot, and I wish you and everyone run with their lifestyle, having family and kids are massive here!! Sorry, I'm out, TRUTH BOMB!!!

[THANOS]

Dude, you continue to dream, with crazy absurd trade offers, this isn't a video game?

That's absurd, and unbelievable.

 

What are you talking about? There is one trade there (for Capps) which wouldn't be tough to pull off with the potential "illegal delivery" looming over him and the short history of success.

 

The other additions would be signings and I used the estimates from fangraphs for their potential contracts.

 

Please explain to me how any of this is absurd or unbelievable.

[Spanky__99]

Thoughts on this pipe dream roster?

 

Stroman

Iwakuma (3/42)

Dickey

Estrada

Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna

 

Osuna/Sanchez

Cecil

Lowe (2/8)

Hendriks

McAllister (and T.J. House for Revere, sign Aoki 2/14)

Loup

Blanton (1/4)/Hutch

 

I don't know what this means? Especially in consideration.

[Spanky__99]

What are you talking about? There is one trade there (for Capps) which wouldn't be tough to pull off with the potential "illegal delivery" looming over him and the short history of success.

 

The other additions would be signings and I used the estimates from fangraphs for their potential contracts.

 

Please explain to me how any of this is absurd or unbelievable.

 

Go Away!

[admin]

What relevance do prospect rankings from 2013 hold on November 17, 2015? This is baseball . s*** changes quick

What relevance does it have? Well to say a guy wasn't good in 2013 but he was a top prospect in 2013, I think that's pretty relevant. Since we're talking about 2013 and all.

 

Yeah but what do I know?

 

His 2013 looks worse now because it was part of a downward trend. Fair or not, the optics are different. When you're looking at his minor league career in total, it's step one down to starting pitcher irrelevance.

 

In context it was just 86 mediocre innings in Dunedin. In hindsight it was the beginning of the end.

 

That's fair, as a downward trend, and looking at a whole it looks much worse.

We'll agree to disagree, but I still wouldn't call his numbers s*****. I've always been a fan of Sanchez, so maybe I'm a homer, but I'm still hoping he can turn into a well above average pitcher. I always thought he was going to be able to figure the walks out.

[Spanky__99]

What relevance does it have? Well to say a guy wasn't good in 2013 but he was a top prospect in 2013, I think that's pretty relevant. Since we're talking about 2013 and all.

 

 

 

That's fair, as a downward trend, and looking at a whole it looks much worse.

We'll agree to disagree, but I still wouldn't call his numbers s*****. I've always been a fan of Sanchez, so maybe I'm a homer, but I'm still hoping he can turn into a well above average pitcher. I always thought he was going to be able to figure the walks out.

 

Yer Dumn!!!

[Spanky__99]

What are you talking about? There is one trade there (for Capps) which wouldn't be tough to pull off with the potential "illegal delivery" looming over him and the short history of success.

 

The other additions would be signings and I used the estimates from fangraphs for their potential contracts.

 

Please explain to me how any of this is absurd or unbelievable.

 

It'll never match the budget.

[Laika]

What relevance does it have? Well to say a guy wasn't good in 2013 but he was a top prospect in 2013, I think that's pretty relevant. Since we're talking about 2013 and all.

 

That's fair, as a downward trend, and looking at a whole it looks much worse.

We'll agree to disagree, but I still wouldn't call his numbers s*****. I've always been a fan of Sanchez, so maybe I'm a homer, but I'm still hoping he can turn into a well above average pitcher. I always thought he was going to be able to figure the walks out.

 

It's possible for someone to be top prospect and be s***** at the same time. That's kind of what player development is - closing the delta between present skills and tool based ceiling.

 

I don't know how you can look at his minor league peripherals and say that they aren't s*****. He walked like 5.0/9 in the minors and his K rate was pretty crummy for a prospect that throws 97. It was poo.

[THANOS]

It'll never match the budget.

 

When you hear posturing from Davidi and others about them considering to make offers to Price or Greinke who would both cost over 30M AAV, my 21.5-26.5M total for 3 pitchers doesn't seem that bad. We still have no clue what the budget actually is, but my proposals are anything but "unbelievable", slightly high maybe, but certainly not absurd.

[Spanky__99]

When you hear posturing from Davidi and others about them considering to make offers to Price or Greinke who would both cost over 30M AAV, my 21.5-26.5M total for 3 pitchers doesn't seem that bad. We still have no clue what the budget actually is, but my proposals are anything but "unbelievable", slightly high maybe, but certainly not absurd.

 

Yet your numbers are silly.

[THANOS]

Yet your numbers are silly.

 

How? They're from here. Fangraphs crowdsourcing isn't perfect but it seems to be a reasonable estimate for what those FA's will get.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

 

You seem to be talking out of your ass to try and dismiss pure logic, for what reason?

[Captain Adama]

I don't recall a single person here saying "Wow Sanchez is f***ing garbage." Actually this forum ranked him as our number one prospect in 2013.

 

*raises hand*