Offseason Roster Thread

[THANOS]

Being new to that stuff is like being new to baseball because you're learning to look at the game in a different way than you always did. Sometimes the forum is too hard on posters who are open to a more analytical perspective but haven't learned a lot about it yet.

 

Thanks man, I appreciate that, I'm definitely willing to learn. I've always been a stats guy, so I find all of this very intriguing. I used to place a lot of stock into AVG, for example, but now I look at BABIP before buying into it, and I value OBP a lot more.

[burlingtonbandit]

Why do you think that? It's not like the Braves got knocked over with incredible offers. Basically the deal was one good prospect + you eat Kimbrel's contract. I don't see why that would be any different now. There actually aren't very many teams that would be in a position to trade multiple good prospects for a reliever making $10M.

 

You are forgetting they took on the awful BJ Upton contract. At the time it looked like 40 million of dead money.

[jaysblue]

You are forgetting they took on the awful BJ Upton contract. At the time it looked like 40 million of dead money.

 

Crazy how BJ Upton just fell off the face of the earth.

[Dr. Dinger]

Come on man.... At least look at his numbers as a reliever if you are going to call him a 4.6 FIP reliever.

 

I'm not going to consider a 26 IP sample meaningful and declare him a good reliever, sorry. His K rate during that stretch was under 7 per 9, which it goes without saying is very poor for a reliever. If you think for some reason that as a reliever he can magically cut his HR rate by 2/3, then that's your opinion. I'm not buying it.

[Frenchsoup]

Crazy how BJ Upton just fell off the face of the earth.

 

Well the Padres knew he was bad when they took him. Preller is a young Amaro.

[Dr. Dinger]

You are forgetting they took on the awful BJ Upton contract. At the time it looked like 40 million of dead money.

 

Lol yeah, that was an epic raping. Shockingly, Melvin Upton turned in a pretty solid season and just about earned his salary.

[Dr. Dinger]

Crazy how BJ Upton just fell off the face of the earth.

 

BJ Upton fell off the face of the earth, but Melvin Upton is a 110 wRC+ bat with plus D and baserunning! Could be a useable 4th OF, too bad he makes $16M. I have to think Preller partly took on Upton's contract with some deluded notion that it might help him re-sign Justin.

[baubau]

Why do you think that? It's not like the Braves got knocked over with incredible offers. Basically the deal was one good prospect + you eat Kimbrel's contract. I don't see why that would be any different now. There actually aren't very many teams that would be in a position to trade multiple good prospects for a reliever making $10M.

 

Come on man.... At least look at his numbers as a reliever if you are going to call him a 4.6 FIP reliever.

 

This is true. As a reviler Sanchez did spot a 3.10 FIP and 3.33 xFIP. He is a ideal facing RHP as well. So.. he is the anti-Loup. Really you can find relievers who can do what Sanchez can. He you can probably trade him to some dumb GM *looks at Arizona* for a decent piece and a reliever similar to him *looks at Delgado*

[CHRIS]

I'd rather Sanchez gets traded while he might still have decent prospecty value to someone

 

This sounds like a fantastic idea, if your objective is to make Stroman SUPER SAD.

[CHRIS]

Isn't Thanos pretty new to baseball? Kind of s***** to make fun of him if so.

 

What if we were just nice and respectful to everyone?

[jaysblue]

BJ Upton fell off the face of the earth, but Melvin Upton is a 110 wRC+ bat with plus D and baserunning! Could be a useable 4th OF, too bad he makes $16M. I have to think Preller partly took on Upton's contract with some deluded notion that it might help him re-sign Justin.

 

I was going to say, his numbers this season in a part time role were pretty good. Just not worth $16 million for a 4th outfielder lol.

[Laika]

Craig Kimbrel has very little trade value, in a nutshell. Almost a wash between his projected value and guaranteed contract. Most of his potential surplus value might actually be present in the chance that you could have him refuse a QO two years from now.

 

If the team trading for him is high on the win curve then his value goes up a bit, obviously.

[KingKat]

Also Revere>Pompey for next year

 

Probably not but it does make sense to have a contingency. Not to mention that if Pompey does perform to or above expectations, that opens up the possibility of Bautista getting more DH or 1B starts. I'm a fan of a Revere/Cola platoon where Bautista only plays the outfield against lefties. Outfield depth makes something like that possible.

[GD]

Zing costs an additional $30

 

Really? I got it free.

 

I said Dickey/Revere/"+", which could be someone like Greene or SRF, GD did an analysis and already determined that Ross is only a $20m asset so he's not nearly as expensive as you think.

 

Revere probably doesn't have surplus value, and Dickey probably has $5m of surplus value. SRF/Greene probably $5m, maybe. I'm just ballparking. But one $50m asset is better than 50 $1m assets, so even if you throw in enough guys it doesn't really work like that.

 

Alford for Ross + cash would be a likely deal imo.

 

Remember that half a season of Andrew Miller returned Eduardo Rodriguez. Chapman is one of the most skilled pitchers in baseball, Cincinnati will surely look for a significant return for him.

 

I hate that the O's were stupid enough to set this precedent. Unless it lets us trade Cecil for Giolito. Then I will like it.

 

Yeah man, Sanchez + Revere for Ross should get it done, Genius!

 

Pretty sure that would get it done. or close, at least. 5 years of Sanchez isn't a non-asset like people think it is.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm not going to consider a 26 IP sample meaningful and declare him a good reliever, sorry. His K rate during that stretch was under 7 per 9, which it goes without saying is very poor for a reliever. If you think for some reason that as a reliever he can magically cut his HR rate by 2/3, then that's your opinion. I'm not buying it.

 

It isn't a 26 IP sample size though. 2.68 SIERA in the last 2 years as a reliever in 59 IP. He's definitely a good reliever but I'm in favour of trading him myself. Young reliever performance is so volatile that his value could be at its highest right now.

[Frenchsoup]

It isn't a 26 IP sample size though. 2.68 SIERA in the last 2 years as a reliever in 59 IP. He's definitely a good reliever but I'm in favour of trading him myself. Young reliever performance is so volatile that his value could be at its highest right now.

 

This is risky though, he's pretty much doing this with one pitch, the fastball. If he develops the slider/cutter or a change, that haven't looked very good in all honesty, he could be a really good reliever. He'll never start with his command, but those elite relievers can be pretty damn valuable these days.

[Stangstag]

If it was up to me:

 

Revere would be traded. We could probably get similar pruduction from Pompey/Saunders and put Revere's 6.5 million to better use.

 

Sanchez and Osuna would both be starting in AAA.

 

Bullpen would be Cecil, Hendriks, Lowe, Loup, and a couple cheap FA's or waiver claims.

 

I would be signing 2 starters. Lackey, Iwakuma, Kazmir, Anderson, Chen, etc. are all great options.

 

And that's it.

[Governator]

If it was up to me:

 

Revere would be traded. We could probably get similar pruduction from Pompey/Saunders and put Revere's 6.5 million to better use.

 

Sanchez and Osuna would both be starting in AAA.

 

Bullpen would be Cecil, Hendriks, Lowe, Loup, and a couple cheap FA's or waiver claims.

 

I would be signing 2 starters. Lackey, Iwakuma, Kazmir, Anderson, Chen, etc. are all great options.

 

And that's it.

 

 

Do we have enough budget to sign 2 mid-tier starters and 2 cheap relievers without needing to move anyone?

 

Also I'm assuming your rotation would be Stroman, Dickey, Hutch, 2 FA pitchers?

[burlingtonbandit]

This is risky though, he's pretty much doing this with one pitch, the fastball. If he develops the slider/cutter or a change, that haven't looked very good in all honesty, he could be a really good reliever. He'll never start with his command, but those elite relievers can be pretty damn valuable these days.

 

I wonder if he can make an adjustment to his curveball. Throw it harder with less break. I think the reason why the curve isn't very successful despite it having a ton of movement is the velo separation is too large. Guys can sit fastball and adjust to the curve since it is so slow.

[baubau]

This offseason is too long already. I want some baseball dammit!

I've been watching the 7th inning against the Rangers on reply too much.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61spAt92APc&ab_channel=CaptainCanada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N76Gz2wFg7Y&ab_channel=BigTMLB

 

side note, I loved Hamels throughout that entire inning. He showed no emotion but you could tell he was dying inside. I loved it even more as a FU to him for rejecting his trades to Toronto so much.

 

We could have been together, we could have had something special Hamels.

[Frenchsoup]

I wonder if he can make an adjustment to his curveball. Throw it harder with less break. I think the reason why the curve isn't very successful despite it having a ton of movement is the velo separation is too large. Guys can sit fastball and adjust to the curve since it is so slow.

 

I think he needs something that looks like a fastball out of the hand. The slutter is a perfect choice imo, he just has to learn how to throw it.

[Jimcanuck]

No surprise to anyone, I see a lot of upside to Sanchez. He's going to make asses out of many of you.

[Trouba95]

No surprise to anyone, I see a lot of upside to Sanchez. He's going to make asses out of many of you.

 

Can't succeed if you can't command the ball. Simple as that. Bye.

[Cyborg]

No surprise to anyone, I see a lot of upside to Sanchez. He's going to make asses out of many of you.

I'm pretty sure we all see the same upside, we're just more realistic on the chances the upside is realized.

[THANOS]

Revere probably doesn't have surplus value, and Dickey probably has $5m of surplus value. SRF/Greene probably $5m, maybe. I'm just ballparking. But one $50m asset is better than 50 $1m assets, so even if you throw in enough guys it doesn't really work like that.

 

Alford for Ross + cash would be a likely deal imo.

 

Thanks for the help on that. That makes sense, it would suck to give up Alford though.

 

Pretty sure that would get it done. or close, at least. 5 years of Sanchez isn't a non-asset like people think it is.

 

I figured it would. I think Preller would overvalue Sanchez like AA did as well.

[THANOS]

Do we have enough budget to sign 2 mid-tier starters and 2 cheap relievers without needing to move anyone?

 

Also I'm assuming your rotation would be Stroman, Dickey, Hutch, 2 FA pitchers?

 

Well he's suggesting we move Revere, so that free up $6.5m. That means we' have about $38m to spend for 2016. It's certainly possible depending on who you look to sign.

[GD]

It's not even overvaluing Sanchez. 5 years is a lot of control. If you view any upside out of Sanchez he's probably one of the better prospects you'd get for a guy with one year left.

[GD]

Thanks for the help on that. That makes sense, it would suck to give up Alford though.

 

Forgot to mention this: If you're coming up with hypothetical trade proposals, try to make it hurt a little.

[dineke]

Forgot to mention this: If you're coming up with hypothetical trade proposals, try to make it hurt a little.

 

That trade where we got an MVP didn't hurt at all. You telling me that can't happen every year?

[GD]

That trade where we got an MVP didn't hurt at all. You telling me that can't happen every year?

 

Meh, maybe every other year.