Best Wishes to Daniel Norris thread

[Olerud363]

We aren't the Phillies, at least not for a couple years. Even then we'll have some young guys pushing up.

 

The Phillie's began the transition from a 100 win team to the worst team in baseball after the 2011 season. In 2011 they win 100+ games. The key players were Roy Halladay 34, Cliff Lee 32, Hamels 27, Victorino 30, Utley 32, Hunter Pence 28.

 

They Jay's key players are Donaldson 29, Bautista 34, EE 32, Tulo 30, Pillar 26, Russel Martin 32.

 

In terms of age of the key players it is very comparable.

 

The wild card is that the Jays have a group of young players who are really hard to evaluate. Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Pompey, and Devon Travis and even Hutchison. As a group they could be outstanding, or not. If Osuna could transition to the rotation, Stroman can keep healthy, and Pompey and Travis can become everyday players... If Hutchison really is a victim of bad luck.

 

It's hard to know how to feel about this team. So much could go wrong or right.

[Olerud363]

We aren't the Phillies, at least not for a couple years. Even then we'll have some young guys pushing up.

 

Also the Phillie's big signings over 2011/12 winter are Juan Pierre and Papelbon... hopefully the Jays do better then that this winter.

[burlingtonbandit]

Without getting in to what I thought about the trade, I hate when this team's 20+ years of ineptitude gets factored into the evaluation of trades they made. Renting Price has to make sense from the day of the trade going forward. Sure, a fan is entitled to think whatever they want, but giving the front office a pass for going all in because 22 years is taking it too far. The fans will want a winner in 2018 as much as they want one now. They just don't know it yet.

 

Actually not the case. Had the Blue Jays not made the playoffs until 2018 this would be true but if the Jays make the playoffs in the next 2 years not nearly as many people will be excited for the postseason in 2018 as they were this year.

 

Look at the Cardinals. You could get playoff tickets for $50. When you win year after year fans get used to it...

[L54]

To say fans don't care if their team is good or not is egregious.

[Pulk_Pull]

lol at the hindsight after going down 2-0

 

Would this thread have been made if Price was able to hold on yesterday? Dwelling on the 'could of beens' is so Toronto.

 

(That being said, wasn't a fan of the Dickey or Price trade but understood both from an accelerating your big league club standpoint)

[Krylian]

lol at the hindsight after going down 2-0

 

Would this thread have been made if Price was able to hold on yesterday? Dwelling on the 'could of beens' is so Toronto.

 

(That being said, wasn't a fan of the Dickey or Price trade but understood both from an accelerating your big league club standpoint)

 

No chance this'd thread exists if the Jays win yesterday. The clowns will deny it and protest that they always believed it was a bad deal, but most are full of s***.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

most likely will be complaining about the Tulo trade more then the Price trade. Hoffman > Norris.

 

However I understand all the deals AA has made and I trust him

[BigCecil]

No chance this'd thread exists if the Jays win yesterday. The clowns will deny it and protest that they always believed it was a bad deal, but most are full of s***.

 

Truth

[Pulk_Pull]

No chance this'd thread exists if the Jays win yesterday. The clowns will deny it and protest that they always believed it was a bad deal, but most are full of s***.

 

It all depends on the lens you look through the trade with. Short term it was great; long term it was terrible. The people that can't grasp these types of trades like to pick a side that is convenient given the context of the situation.

 

There will no doubt be people who loved the trade in August who will come in next year and whine about the loss of Norris and Boyd, and how it impacted our starting pitching depth for 2016.

[Olerud363]

No chance this'd thread exists if the Jays win yesterday. The clowns will deny it and protest that they always believed it was a bad deal, but most are full of s***.

 

Sure... but in term's of leverage yesterday was a significant amount of Price's entire Blue Jay value.

 

If you think the trade is only a win if Jays win get to the World series then the thread makes perfect sense.

 

Jays chances of getting to world series were close to 50% at the beginning of the bottom of the seventh... they went down to below 20% by the end of the inning, maybe about 15%.

 

The over-reactionary fans a lot of times have a pretty good idea of the probabilities... reducing world series chances from 50% to 15% in 15 minutes of terrible ball -- totally legit to complain.

 

On Wednesday World series chances were increased from about 30% to 50% in the seventh... a lot of positive reaction to that.

[Pulk_Pull]

Attributing changes to world series chances / game result chances to a single pitcher who didn't pitch game 1, whose offence has put up a total of 3 runs in two games and who gave up runs after a horrible error to start an inning (and was almost perfect in the 6 other innings) is not a legit complaint.

[AdamGreenwood]

The Blue Jays essentially had to make a choice.

We only have Bautista and Encarnacion for one more year. No one is going to blame them if they leave. They both signed pretty team friendly contracts, and committed to Toronto.

 

The window for us being competitive is essentially this year and next.

We could have either decided to go all-in, or we could have decided to trade away Bautista and EE to start the rebuilding process early.

 

The Price trade is terrible long term, but I think the Jays decided to go for it this year, when the AL East was pretty bad, except for the Yankees. At that point, they were probably thinking wildcard, and probably needed an ace to get us through.

Things turned out better than we thought, especially with Stroman returning early. But, potentially playing a wildcard game with Estrada/Dickey/Buehrle as our starter probably didn't sit too well with the Jays execs who paid a high price to maximize our chances to get through to the first round.

[CJ-Freeway]

Price got us to the playoffs. However, he choked in them.

 

Still think it was a good trade because we couldn't have made it to the playoffs without him.

[Olerud363]

Attributing changes to world series chances / game result chances to a single pitcher who didn't pitch game 1, whose offence has put up a total of 3 runs in two games and who gave up runs after a horrible error to start an inning (and was almost perfect in the 6 other innings) is not a legit complaint.

 

I'm not saying it's all Price's fault. I'm just trying to point out that this thread is 100% logical.

 

At the beginning of the 7th inning the Jays chances of making the world series were 50%, by the end they were 15%.

 

So if you believe that the Price trade is only a success if the Jays make the world series, then now is a logical time to start this thread.

 

Mariano Rivera once threw a sequence of pitches that reduced that Yankees chances of winning the world series from 78% to 0%. If Mariano had been a rental, acquired at great cost, for the purpose of winning a world series, then it would be fair to criticize the move, at that point.

 

That situation is more extreme. In this case the Jays aren't done, just in trouble, hopefully they come back.

 

In the playoffs a sequence can reduce your chances incredibly in a short time... you don't have 100 games left to make it up.

[Slugger]

No, it won't hurt because we won the division and then won a playoff round.

 

There are teams in the league that hang banners that say "LCS Apperance". That's how frequently teams not named the Yanks, Cards, Sox and Giants make the post season.

[BTS]

There are teams in the league that hang banners that say "LCS Apperance". That's how frequently teams not named the Yanks, Cards, Sox and Giants make the post season.

 

For real? That's pretty embarrassing. I hope the Jays don't do that if they bow out here."2015 AL East Champs" will suffice.

[Treeplant]

You don't get many shots at a World Series in this league.

 

AA put together a roster that most sports outlets have predicted to win the World Series heading into the playoffs.

 

You can't ask more than that. Whatever happens with the prospects traded happens. We are in the ALCS with a lineup that isn't overmatched. You take risks to get here. Hopefully it works out, but if it doesn't, I for one will have no regrets.

[BTS]

You don't get many shots at a World Series in this league.

 

AA put together a roster that most sports outlets have predicted to win the World Series heading into the playoffs.

 

You can't ask more than that. Whatever happens with the prospects traded happens. We are in the ALCS with a lineup that isn't overmatched. You take risks to get here. Hopefully it works out, but if it doesn't, I for one will have no regrets.

 

The goal should probably be to assemble an organization that has a chance almost every year, not a team with a 1-2 year window of contention. The nature of playoffs is that you're probably going to need to make them multiple times to win it all, even if you stand a better chance than everyone else in a given year.

[Treeplant]

The goal should probably be to assemble an organization that has a chance almost every year, not a team with a 1-2 year window of contention. The nature of playoffs is that you're probably going to need to make them multiple times to win it all, even if you stand a better chance than everyone else in a given year.

 

Agreed that's preferable, but it's incredibly difficult. I'll take what we've got rather than languishing in mediocrity. I think we look alright for a few years to come with a few moves anyway.

[mtljaysfan]

I understand you might have to trade and overpay for the last missing pieces of a championship roster.

 

But I can't help myself but ask the question; What if we never did the Marlins trade, the Dickey trade and the Price trade?

 

We would be a better team, for now and and the years to come!

[Olerud363]

Agreed that's preferable, but it's incredibly difficult. I'll take what we've got rather than languishing in mediocrity. I think we look alright for a few years to come with a few moves anyway.

 

Why is it incredibly difficult?? Lots of teams do it.

 

If you assume we never made a trade since 2012, or only minor trades (ie it would be unfair to erase every trade except the Donaldson one)

 

We'd have Syndergaard, Stroman, Hoffman and Norris in the rotation. Alvarez too. A tonne of depth for backend/bullpen.

 

Gomes/D'Arnaud, Lawrie, Hech, Goins, Smoak, Snider, Pompey, Gose, Pillar, and Bautista as outfielders EE DH

 

We'd have Yunel Escobar hanging around as a utility guy...

 

There would be ups and downs with that. Mouse and Hosmer were awful in 2014, but Royals withstood it.

 

It would be the Royals, with EE and Bautista as big bats.

[Swervin81]

The goal should probably be to assemble an organization that has a chance almost every year, not a team with a 1-2 year window of contention. The nature of playoffs is that you're probably going to need to make them multiple times to win it all, even if you stand a better chance than everyone else in a given year.

 

Well, there's only one organization that does that (the Cards). It's insanely difficult to achieve. Not only do you need to have an unwavering philospophy and elite scouting and drafting and elite player development, but you need to be committed like HELL to it when things get bumpy and have support from ownership that may not necessarily care about the inner workings and only cares about payroll and results.

 

Is it preferable? Absolutely. Is it incredibly difficult to achieve? Absolutely.

[glory]

Well, there's only one organization that does that (the Cards). It's insanely difficult to achieve. Not only do you need to have an unwavering philospophy and elite scouting and drafting and elite player development, but you need to be committed like HELL to it when things get bumpy and have support from ownership that may not necessarily care about the inner workings and only cares about payroll and results.

 

Is it preferable? Absolutely. Is it incredibly difficult to achieve? Absolutely.

 

You don't have to make the playoffs every year as there will be bumps in the road here and there but a team that can consistently make the playoffs has been done enough times to not be considered some sort of pipe dream.

 

If the 2012 trades never happened, we would be the Mets right now except with a much better offense. Instead we are a team that has to win in 2015 because there's no guarantee they'll make it again after 2016 when two of its best players either leave or become way more expensive to keep.

 

When you create a window, then you've already eliminated any chance of becoming a consistent winner. Unless AA has a few more Donaldson type of moves in him this winter.

[burlingtonbandit]

The goal should probably be to assemble an organization that has a chance almost every year, not a team with a 1-2 year window of contention. The nature of playoffs is that you're probably going to need to make them multiple times to win it all, even if you stand a better chance than everyone else in a given year.

 

Its so tough to make the playoffs year after year. Injuries, other team performances fluctuate so much that its very difficult to do that. And with the wildcard only being 1 game I think you have to maximize your chances at winning the division when you have the chance. There are so many smart GMs these days that unless you have the Dodgers Payroll it is insanely difficult to win 95 games year after year.

 

I'll take the Boston Red Sox last 5 years over the Dodgers or the Rays etc..

[Swervin81]

You don't have to make the playoffs every year as there will be bumps in the road here and there but a team that can consistently make the playoffs has been done enough times to not be considered some sort of pipe dream.

 

If the 2012 trades never happened, we would be the Mets right now except with a much better offense. Instead we are a team that has to win in 2015 because there's no guarantee they'll make it again after 2016 when two of its best players either leave or become way more expensive to keep.

 

When you create a window, then you've already eliminated any chance of becoming a consistent winner. Unless AA has a few more Donaldson type of moves in him this winter.

 

Except you need to have elite player development. You think Noah would be anywhere near where he is now right here? I mean, when we traded him, he was pretty raw. He could throw 100 but didn't have the greatest secondary stuff and din't even have a 3rd pitch. No guarantee he develops the same way here. I mean, before probably Stroman, the last homegrown star we had was Hill. Hell, look at Arrieta in Baltimore vs Arrieta now. As for Hoffman... he doesn't have much deception and can't really strike anyone out with the lack of deception in his new delivery forced onto him which is much like Sanchez's delivery (which, obviously, is not very conducive to strikeouts) by us. Those K numbers haven't exactly shot up in Colorado's farm either. Oh, speaking of, Hoffman has now managed to go to an organization that is horrendous at pitcher development. I can guarantee you he doesn't reach his potential while he's with the Rockies. Hech cannot hit to save his life, he is absolute trash with the bat. Lawrie and Gose are undisciplined toolsy nightmares. Those guys... they could've been developed better in our system but haven't done anything elsewhere either. Speaking of Gose, our best position player to come up from the minors since Hill is Travis. That's it. That's how bad our player development is when our best player that came up was completely developed by another organization.

 

It takes elite player development and drafting... you wonder how the Cards are able to replace almost everyone that gets hurt or leaves nearly seamlessly? They are great at drafting and even better at developing. We may do well drafting, but our player development is s***. I mean, our only homegrown star pitcher since Doc being Stroman and our only hitting prospect to translate well to the bigs since Hill being Travis? Pathetic.

 

That said, once more, I think AA does a really good job at drafting, but really needs to overhaul player development IMO.

[L54]

Why is it incredibly difficult?? Lots of teams do it.

 

If you assume we never made a trade since 2012, or only minor trades (ie it would be unfair to erase every trade except the Donaldson one)

 

We'd have Syndergaard, Stroman, Hoffman and Norris in the rotation. Alvarez too. A tonne of depth for backend/bullpen.

 

Gomes/D'Arnaud, Lawrie, Hech, Goins, Smoak, Snider, Pompey, Gose, Pillar, and Bautista as outfielders EE DH

 

We'd have Yunel Escobar hanging around as a utility guy...

 

There would be ups and downs with that. Mouse and Hosmer were awful in 2014, but Royals withstood it.

 

It would be the Royals, with EE and Bautista as big bats.

 

Lol that team would not have made the playoffs.

[Olerud363]

Lol that team would not have made the playoffs.

 

And that's why we fail... we are not allowed a young team because fans like you won't believe in it. The team loses 6 wins or so because it doesn't have Donaldson. Gomes/D'arnaud are injury prone, but combined you have some redundancy and a good catcher.

 

You still have Bautista and EE. You have Syndergard for the entire year. You have Norris, Hoffman as the late season reinforcements.

 

You believe in Pompey... potentially an upgrade over Revere.

 

You even still have Travis Snider as more depth... Snider as a part time player can put up a 2 win season.

 

You don't have the names and the MVP... but you have a fun young team that is set up for years.

[BTS]

And that's why we fail... we are not allowed a young team because fans like you won't believe in it. The team loses 6 wins or so because it doesn't have Donaldson. Gomes/D'arnaud are injury prone, but combined you have some redundancy and a good catcher.

 

You still have Bautista and EE. You have Syndergard for the entire year. You have Norris, Hoffman as the late season reinforcements.

 

You believe in Pompey... potentially an upgrade over Revere.

 

You even still have Travis Snider as more depth... Snider as a part time player can put up a 2 win season.

 

You don't have the names and the MVP... but you have a fun young team that is set up for years.

 

You also have, what, like $60M in payroll space?

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

I have and had no problem with the trade in fact I was all for it.

 

Flags fly forever... we had the best pitcher of his generation but in the end Doc needed to leave to get to the postseason.

 

The buzz of this city and the way it got behind the Blue jays for the run in has been a joy to behold and a memory that will last for years to come.

 

I`m a firm believer that success breeds success, the Pirates had a similar playoff drought and have now gone 3 successive seasons playing playoff games and had the second best record this past season.

 

Long may the Jays feelgood factor last but the bandwagon seems to losing numbers since the weekend.

[L54]

And that's why we fail... we are not allowed a young team because fans like you won't believe in it.

 

Actually my opinion has no bearing on the direction this organization takes. I've also been adamant about building for sustained success.