Projected Arbitration Salaries via MLB Trade Rumors

[500LevelSTH]

Brett Cecil (5.152) – $1.4MM (2015:$2.48MM)

Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM (2015:$2.88MM)

Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.5MM (2015:$1MM)

Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM (2015:$4.1MM)

Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM (2015:$1.75MM)

Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM (2015:$4.3MM)

Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM (2015:$520,100)

Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K (2015:$527,500)

Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K (2014*:$515,900)

 

 

Added the 2015 salaries (from baseball-reference) to the numbers posted by burlington - 2014 salary for Delabar

 

Theres no way Cecil is taking a cut, if anything his 2nd half has been the best of any setup lefty in MLB.

[G-Snarls]

AA will try to negotiate 1 year deals with most of these guys anyway, especially Cecil, Hutch, Smoak and Saunders

 

You non-tender Saunders if you can't agree on a 1 year deal

[Carp12]

Cecil has been updated to 3.4M

[rydermike]

Theres no way Cecil is taking a cut, if anything his 2nd half has been the best of any setup lefty in MLB.

 

Yeah, it was said earlier that the projected figure for Cecil was miscalculated and they were going to fix it. No way he gets 1.4M, I just left it as it was though so the source was the same. It's since been fixed on MLBTR so, I've updated it

[G-Snarls]

Cecil has been updated to 3.4M

 

That's more like it

 

Anyone up for 2-3 year deal for him?

[BigCecil]

You non-tender Saunders if you can't agree on a 1 year deal

 

Yes. I think Saunders may be finished sadly. One of the unluckiest players I can ever remember.

[G-Snarls]

Yes. I think Saunders may be finished sadly. One of the unluckiest players I can ever remember.

 

And Sizemore

 

But he's made it back

[BigCecil]

And Sizemore

 

But he's made it back

 

God ya....forgot about him. From an 8 to a - 0.6 WAR.

 

He may not stick on his comeback.

[G-Snarls]

God ya....forgot about him. From an 8 to a - 0.6 WAR.

 

He may not stick on his comeback.

 

Such a shame

 

He looked like he would be a perennial all-star

[Krylian]

That's more like it

 

Anyone up for 2-3 year deal for him?

 

Was just thinking that. He's certainly worth it.

[RealAccountant]

Why does Hutch get a raise despite having a terrible year

[Brenner]

I bet you get annual raises at work even after terrible years too.

[flafson]

I bet you get annual raises at work even after terrible years too.

 

Depends on the place really. Some places yes, some places no.

[rydermike]

Why does Hutch get a raise despite having a terrible year

 

Because he had a 13-5 record, all he does is win as Zaun says.

 

Seriously though, I get that he gets a raise from his minimum-type deals because now he's arb eligible, but I think $2.9M is high. He posted a -1.7 WAR. I say $1.25M + $1M in incentives

[Spanky99]

Because he had a 13-5 record, all he does is win as Zaun says.

 

Seriously though, I get that he gets a raise from his minimum-type deals because now he's arb eligible, but I think $2.9M is high. He posted a -1.7 WAR. I say $1.25M + $1M in incentives

 

Incentives in Arb? I've never heard of that.

[nmrch]

Why does Hutch get a raise despite having a terrible year

 

Arbitrators almost never give out league minimum salaries no matter how terrible of a season you have.

[blurnandez]

He posted a -1.7 WAR.

 

f*** paying him, dude owes the Jays like $10M!

[Stangstag]

Because he had a 13-5 record, all he does is win as Zaun says.

 

Seriously though, I get that he gets a raise from his minimum-type deals because now he's arb eligible, but I think $2.9M is high. He posted a -1.7 WAR. I say $1.25M + $1M in incentives

 

Hutchison was worth 1.5 WAR according to fangraphs.

[Orgfiller]

Because he had a 13-5 record, all he does is win as Zaun says.

 

Seriously though, I get that he gets a raise from his minimum-type deals because now he's arb eligible, but I think $2.9M is high. He posted a -1.7 WAR. I say $1.25M + $1M in incentives

 

Baseball Reference's pitching WAR is pretty shaky because it uses runs allowed, which is in part dependent on the defense behind the pitcher and a lot of luck is involved. Fangraphs' version of pitching WAR uses FIP, which eliminates the defense and focuses only on the factors that the pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks, and homeruns to an extent). Hutchison's fWAR was 1.5 this season, which is worth about $12MM if you're being conservative. Of course that doesn't mean that Hutch should make that amount, as there would be little precedence for such an insane raise.

[rydermike]

Baseball Reference's pitching WAR is pretty shaky because it uses runs allowed, which is in part dependent on the defense behind the pitcher and a lot of luck is involved. Fangraphs' version of pitching WAR uses FIP, which eliminates the defense and focuses only on the factors that the pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks, and homeruns to an extent). Hutchison's fWAR was 1.5 this season, which is worth about $12MM if you're being conservative. Of course that doesn't mean that Hutch should make that amount, as there would be little precedence for such an insane raise.

 

Hutchison was worth 1.5 WAR according to fangraphs.

 

I used Baseball-Reference. Knew there was variations across different sites, but had no idea it could be that extreme difference. -1.7 to 1.5 is huge

[rydermike]

Incentives in Arb? I've never heard of that.

 

If we could sign him without going to arbitration was what I meant

[BTS]

If we could sign him without going to arbitration was what I meant

 

There's not really incentive for him to do that. He'll get close to 3M guaranteed in arb. He's not going to forego that for 1.25 + 1 in incentives.

[rydermike]

There's not really incentive for him to do that. He'll get close to 3M guaranteed in arb. He's not going to forego that for 1.25 + 1 in incentives.

 

I never saw it as what would happen, but what I would like. But I was basing it off the -1.7 WAR I saw on Baseball-Reference, thinking there was no way the Jays would offer more than 1.5 if that was his true WAR. But after comparing it to Fangraphs calculation, I can see how the 2.9 figure is more realistic and how the Jays will probably offer closer to that amount.

[Hipfan]

Baseball Reference's pitching WAR is pretty shaky because it uses runs allowed, which is in part dependent on the defense behind the pitcher and a lot of luck is involved. Fangraphs' version of pitching WAR uses FIP, which eliminates the defense and focuses only on the factors that the pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks, and homeruns to an extent). Hutchison's fWAR was 1.5 this season, which is worth about $12MM if you're being conservative. Of course that doesn't mean that Hutch should make that amount, as there would be little precedence for such an insane raise.

 

Goes to show why WAR (at least for pitchers) needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Hutch was terrible all year.

[GD]

I used Baseball-Reference. Knew there was variations across different sites, but had no idea it could be that extreme difference. -1.7 to 1.5 is huge

 

They're calculated in nearly the exact same fashion. They're just based off of different philosophies.

[candymartinez]

Goes to show why WAR (at least for pitchers) needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Hutch was terrible all year.

 

Lol

[Spanky99]

There's not really incentive for him to do that. He'll get close to 3M guaranteed in arb. He's not going to forego that for 1.25 + 1 in incentives.

 

You can get incentives during Arb?

[rydermike]

You can get incentives during Arb?

 

No, I was saying ideally I would sign him to a contract with incentives. But he since he is arbitration eligible, he has no reason to

[Spanky99]

No, I was saying ideally I would sign him to a contract with incentives. But he since he is arbitration eligible, he has no reason to

 

I see.