Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

He had pool noodle power in previous years so this is borderline shocking to see.

 

As a 19 and 20 year old he had 30 double 5 triple 10 hr power over 135 games... not exactly noodle power, but kind of the power many 25 homer guys show when they are young.

 

Kind of like Alex Rios -- who was terrible in the minors, but young for his level through age 20.

 

Keep in mind with all these guys we are missing the 2020 season. If Taylor had a .275, 20 hr age 21 season we'd all think of this more as a surprising but not shocking progression.

[Jimcanuck]

Nobody forgot - it's just that Moreno looks like the better player to "keep". It's the same or better offensive profile with better defensive upside, better athleticism, and considerably less long-term physical risk. Kirk has barely been up at the MLB level and he's already out with a long DL stint, is that shocking for a 5'8 260 pound marshmallow?

 

It was a hypothetical comment - if it comes down to choosing between those two, I can almost assure yo that the FO would tab Moreno as their guy. Kirk looks like a great player himself, but you're talking about a potential Top 10-15 type prospect in Moreno.

 

Yes, Moreno > Kirk in terms of value at this point

[Olerud363]

Every minor leaguer that was ahead of Gabriel Moreno has regressed... except Gabriel Moreno.

 

If he keeps it up he'll be kind of a Bo Bichette in reverse.

 

Bo had an eye popping (.390) low A lansing season, then cooled off as he progressed. He hit maybe .280 in New Hampshire, .270ish in Buffalo, but he got on everyones radar because of the Lansing season... then there was no reason to take him off.

 

Moreno was a little more ordinary at Lansing, but now explodes on the scene. Everyone acts surprised.

 

Which way is better? Explode early? Explode late? Probably doesn't matter, you just have to take the average minor league performance if you are stat scouting, with a little more emphasis on recent performance.

[Laika]

As a 19 and 20 year old he had 30 double 5 triple 10 hr power over 135 games... not exactly noodle power, but kind of the power many 25 homer guys show when they are young.

 

Kind of like Alex Rios -- who was terrible in the minors, but young for his level through age 20.

 

Keep in mind with all these guys we are missing the 2020 season. If Taylor had a .275, 20 hr age 21 season we'd all think of this more as a surprising but not shocking progression.

 

When a player like Taylor combines mediocre ISO with low AVG and low BABIP in the minors, I tend to assume that they don't hit the ball hard.

 

That may not be true all of the time. What evidently has happened with Samad Taylor is that he had pool noodle IN GAME power, most of the time, but he had okay RAW POWER that was just rarely showing up in games. Probably because of an underdeveloped hit tool.

[Scion]

We need premium SP and and elite BP help, not sure Samad Taylor would be enough. Sample size too small. As per Laika, he hit for no power prior to this season and was mostly known as a base burner.

 

Sounds like Milwaukee Carlos Gomez with less defensive value.

[metafour]

When a player like Taylor combines mediocre ISO with low AVG and low BABIP in the minors, I tend to assume that they don't hit the ball hard.

 

That may not be true all of the time. What evidently has happened with Samad Taylor is that he had pool noodle IN GAME power, most of the time, but he had okay RAW POWER that was just rarely showing up in games. Probably because of an underdeveloped hit tool.

 

Most of the draft and early scouting write-up's on Taylor that I remember indicated that he had surprising pop for such a small/slightly built guy. I think what you're seeing is a change in his swing profile which has enabled if not even upscaled his power output. He seems to be hitting the ball harder and with a better launch angle. As mentioned, these HR's he's hitting aren't "incidental" - he's crushing the ball. He is also a quick-twitch/explosive athlete, and those types of guys can often unlock a lot of untapped ability if/when they figure out how to actually hit the ball optimally.

[L54]

I would move Kirk in a heart beat. Guy is a massive liability and really only has exceptional bat to ball skills.

 

You can't keep all these catchers and Kirk isn't a guy you can forecast catching 100 games. He's also the one with the most present value aside from Moreno as he's a major league ready asset that could step in right away. Danny Jansen is worth nothing, Reese McGuire could've been had for free. Something has to give and my guess is it's Kirk.

[Sammy225]

I would move Kirk in a heart beat. Guy is a massive liability and really only has exceptional bat to ball skills.

 

You can't keep all these catchers and Kirk isn't a guy you can forecast catching 100 games. He's also the one with the most present value aside from Moreno as he's a major league ready asset that could step in right away. Danny Jansen is worth nothing, Reese McGuire could've been had for free. Something has to give and my guess is it's Kirk.

 

It makes sense to unload a catcher..... It seems like our system has got some that could be major league level.

[Laika]

Most of the draft and early scouting write-up's on Taylor that I remember indicated that he had surprising pop for such a small/slightly built guy. I think what you're seeing is a change in his swing profile which has enabled if not even upscaled his power output. He seems to be hitting the ball harder and with a better launch angle. As mentioned, these HR's he's hitting aren't "incidental" - he's crushing the ball. He is also a quick-twitch/explosive athlete, and those types of guys can often unlock a lot of untapped ability if/when they figure out how to actually hit the ball optimally.

 

Yeah but even those reports would have defined the "surprising" power as a 40 or 45 grade tool. He's hitting like a guy with 70+ pop right now! Leads the damn AANE in dingers and has a higher ISO than guys like Oneil Cruz, Riley Greene, and even super elite prospect Gabriel Moreno. It's kind of nuts when you think about it.

 

I almost wonder if there is something funny going on in New Hampshire.... lol

[glory]

It wouldn't surprise me if the Jays start Moreno at CA (whenever he comes up) and use Kirk as backup CA + DH. Atkins seems partial to players he drafted/signed (like every GM usually is). I think they move on from Jansen regardless of the return whenever they feel Moreno is ready to step in, and Tellez probably has one foot out the door as well so DH is unoccupied.

[L54]

It's tough though, remember Francisco Mejia? Seemed like a bonafide stud to step into the league

 

Prospects will break your heart

[Laika]

It's tough though, remember Francisco Mejia? Seemed like a bonafide stud to step into the league

 

Prospects will break your heart

 

And especially catchers and pitchers

[Laika]

Mejia had tons of question marks around his defence and plate discipline.

 

Yeah but evaluators were slapping 70 hit and 80 arm grades on him. He was top 20 on every major list at some point and I think top 10 on a few. Almost as good as it gets for a C prospect.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Has Moreno played more games at 3B? If so my bet is that's how they plan to get him up to the Jays at some point this season if he doesn't cool off. He's the most athletic catcher they have so it makes sense that he'd be the one they move off of catching in order to keep both he and Kirk's bats in the line up every day.

[Laika]

I feel like the industry is a little more bullish on Moreno just because no one can come up with an obvious weakness. I think Mejia was in the Joey Bart tier where skeptics could easily point to a reason why he would fail. And even as far back as 2017, CLE was toying with him at 3B because they didn't think he would catch and then traded him (whereas in Moreno's case it's a positive because it underscores his athleticism).

 

For the record, I might have Kirk in that tier of prospect that has loud skills in one area and obvious weaknesses.

 

Moreno might be a tier above for me, personally. Still to this day, Realmuto derives a lot of value from his athleticism, just like Russ Martin did.

 

And then a tier above that has to be the Posey/Rutschman god level, captain america, tier, no?

 

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example.

 

Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

[Laika]

I feel like the industry is a little more bullish on Moreno just because no one can come up with an obvious weakness. I think Mejia was in the Joey Bart tier where skeptics could easily point to a reason why he would fail. And even as far back as 2017, CLE was toying with him at 3B because they didn't think he would catch and then traded him (whereas in Moreno's case it's a positive because it underscores his athleticism).

 

For the record, I might have Kirk in that tier of prospect that has loud skills in one area and obvious weaknesses.

 

Moreno might be a tier above for me, personally. Still to this day, Realmuto derives a lot of value from his athleticism, just like Russ Martin did.

 

And then a tier above that has to be the Posey/Rutschman god level, captain america, tier, no?

 

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example.

 

Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

[Krylian]

Orelivs 3-for-3 with 2 doubles and 4 ribbies today

[BlueRocky]

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example.

 

Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

 

BA is really really high on Gaby, I think he’ll be top 15-20.

[Ray]

Wow, I didn’t realize Leo Jimenez was doing as well as he is: .283/.439/.321

 

Like no power to speak of, but the plate discipline is impressive.

[FantasyNewb]

Just wondering if the update BA rankings were posted here.

[Ray]

Samad Taylor walked 3 times tonight lol.

[Ray]

CJ Van Eyk: 6IP, 3H, 2ER, 0BB, 8K

 

He has legitimate swing and miss stuff with good velo and high spin. Just needs to find a consistent delivery and release point, and if he does, I really think he’ll be our next great pitching prospect.

[Olerud363]

Yeah but evaluators were slapping 70 hit and 80 arm grades on him. He was top 20 on every major list at some point and I think top 10 on a few. Almost as good as it gets for a C prospect.

 

He hit .243 as a 19 year old in low a, then got hot the next year and hit .340.

 

Meija is a .290 career minor league hitter, who has hit .230 through 450 mlb at bats, that kind of stuff happens all the time.

 

Any info out there on predictive power of most recent minor league season vs entire minor league career?

[Laika]

He hit .243 as a 19 year old in low a, then got hot the next year and hit .340.

 

Meija is a .290 career minor league hitter, who has hit .230 through 450 mlb at bats, that kind of stuff happens all the time.

 

Any info out there on predictive power of most recent minor league season vs entire minor league career?

 

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense.

 

- more data is better than less

- more recent data is better than older data

 

The ideal prospect has great recent data and a track record of good data over time

The worst prospects suck now and sucked before

The tough calls are the guys with a solid track record but bad recent performance, or vice versa

 

Getting the "tough calls" right separates the Rays front office from the Rockies/DBacks/Pirates/Tigers/Orioles.

 

What the data is specifically also matters. When it comes to recognizing breakouts or declines, teams will want to look at indicators and not really results. They care about bat speed, velocity, exit velocity (max and average), spin rates, contact rates... they don't care that much about results. Projection systems are incorporating some of this data as it seeps into the public sphere. Half a season of massively increased contact and max EV might mean more than four prior years of mediocrity.

 

No matter how you slice up Samad Taylor, he's a "tough call"

 

And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Laika

[Olerud363]

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense.

 

- more data is better than less

- more recent data is better than older data

 

The ideal prospect has great recent data and a track record of good data over time

The worst prospects suck now and sucked before

The tough calls are the guys with a solid track record but bad recent performance, or vice versa

 

Getting the "tough calls" right separates the Rays front office from the Rockies/DBacks/Pirates/Tigers/Orioles.

 

What the data is specifically also matters. When it comes to recognizing breakouts or declines, teams will want to look at indicators and not really results. They care about bat speed, velocity, exit velocity (max and average), spin rates, contact rates... they don't care that much about results. Projection systems are incorporating some of this data as it seeps into the public sphere. Half a season of massively increased contact and max EV might mean more than four prior years of mediocrity.

 

No matter how you slice up Samad Taylor, he's a "tough call"

 

And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.

 

 

I wasn't dressing down Meija. He's a .290 hitter in the minors. I didn't call him a f***-ass-suck-failure...

 

Just making the point that it is very common for a .290 minor league hitter to hit .230 in 450 major league at bats.

 

His k/bb ratio isn't awful in the majors, it's translated in a way that is pretty typical. His isolated power is about the same in the majors as it was in the minors.

 

Batting average isn't everything, but Jose Altuve hit .325 in the minors, and .280 his first couple season in the majors... 45 points lower

 

Meija hitting .230 is nothing, for a .290 minor league hitter. His true talent level might be much better given a couple more seasons of plate appearances.

 

Why even call him a failure yet, except maybe for defense (I know nothing about his defense)

[Olerud363]

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense.

 

Just out of curiosity I went back and checked Meija's projection for 2019, I could only find the ZIPS one...

 

Francisco Mejia 519 .249 .296 .398 88 .149 .289 4.2 3 1.9

 

Not much different then what he has actually done over a season of at bats. So the projection system, at least not zips, didn't see any hidden signs of greatness there.

 

By all means, I agree Meija was a good prospect and can be good going forward, however he also hasn't drastically underperformed minor league stats or projection system.

[AMS528]

And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.

 

His age vs level was definitely excellent no doubt about that. A 127 wRC+ at age 21 in AA is pretty good. But it wasn't like he was tearing apart the league. I don't know the context, but it does seem weird Cleveland elected to call him up at that point. Bichette hit similarly in AA and no one was clamoring for him to come up immediately then. Austin Martin is putting that up right now. And he's definitely not getting called up.

 

And his AAA numbers were definitely very different when he was still with Cleveland and in the IL and when he was in the PCL. It was always hard to gauge those PCL numbers when we had guys in Vegas. He had a .755 OPS in 79 games in AAA outside of the PCL. In that context his numbers in the majors don't seem super surprising. His numbers in 2019 weren't far from that.

 

To be clear I'm looking at all of this with hindsight where I'm able to cherry pick at these numbers. His prospect rankings obviously indicate he was showing more potential in the minors than he's displayed so far.

 

He'd also have better numbers if his defensive numbers didn't grade out so badly. He's not terrible offensively. Nearly league average.

[Laika]

Just out of curiosity I went back and checked Meija's projection for 2019, I could only find the ZIPS one...

 

Francisco Mejia 519 .249 .296 .398 88 .149 .289 4.2 3 1.9

 

Not much different then what he has actually done over a season of at bats. So the projection system, at least not zips, didn't see any hidden signs of greatness there.

 

By all means, I agree Meija was a good prospect and can be good going forward, however he also hasn't drastically underperformed minor league stats or projection system.

 

He mostly flopped on defense.

 

Offensive projection for 2018 was a 80 wRC+, which is actually quite good for a catching prospect of that age.

 

He never profiled (statistically) as an otherwordly bat or a player that would get amazing projections. He looked like a stud because of age + position + hit tool but you need to do it all statistically to like, project to be an above average MLB hitter. It's possible that scouts severely overrated him in part because of hit tool bias. A great hit tool can be not that useful if the player swings at f***ing everything.

[Laika]

His age vs level was definitely excellent no doubt about that. A 127 wRC+ at age 21 in AA is pretty good. But it wasn't like he was tearing apart the league. I don't know the context, but it does seem weird Cleveland elected to call him up at that point. Bichette hit similarly in AA and no one was clamoring for him to come up immediately then. Austin Martin is putting that up right now. And he's definitely not getting called up.

 

And his AAA numbers were definitely very different when he was still with Cleveland and in the IL and when he was in the PCL. It was always hard to gauge those PCL numbers when we had guys in Vegas. He had a .755 OPS in 79 games in AAA outside of the PCL. In that context his numbers in the majors don't seem super surprising. His numbers in 2019 weren't far from that.

 

To be clear I'm looking at all of this with hindsight where I'm able to cherry pick at these numbers. His prospect rankings obviously indicate he was showing more potential in the minors than he's displayed so far.

 

He'd also have better numbers if his defensive numbers didn't grade out so badly. He's not terrible offensively. Nearly league average.

 

Yeah if Mejia was a solid defender the bat probably would have been fine, at least at some point. Mediocre offensive projections at this point due to extended mediocre MLB production, but still looks good for a wRC+ between 90 and 100.

 

Note - Steamer ROS has Gabriel Moreno as a 100 wRC+ hitter!!!

[Ray]

Minor league leaders in wRC+ (age 22 or younger in AA/AAA):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1&filter=Age%7Clt%7C22

 

1. Gabriel Moreno (200 wRC+): Dude is lapping the field right now. Next best 21 year old is at a 138 wRC+ (Bobby Witt Jr.)

3. Samad Taylor (181 wRC+): Crazy K% and high BABIP, but still pretty insane

7. Otto Lopez (143 wRC+)

16. Austin Martin (125 wRC+)

 

 

Jays have 4 of the Top 20 performers in AA/AAA for ages 22 or younger. And they all play for our AA team.