Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[43211234]

Steamer RoS wRC+ projections for catchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamerr&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d

 

 

Gabriel Moreno 22nd in all of baseball (Kirk #2!!!! btw)

[Krylian]

Am I wrong to start having mild concerns and doubts about Groshans?

[Orgfiller]

Am I wrong to start having mild concerns and doubts about Groshans?

 

Yes? He's only 21 and has barely played competitive games the last two years, it's not like his K rate has skyrocketed or anything. Him being around average is perfectly fine for his developmental path to this point.

[Laika]

Am I wrong to start having mild concerns and doubts about Groshans?

 

No. The lost development time might be a handicap he is never able to get over. And he might have been overrated at times, anyway. Maybe he's made of glass?

[Daniel Labude]

No. The lost development time might be a handicap he is never able to get over. And he might have been overrated at times, anyway. Maybe he's made of glass?

 

So let me play devils advocate here...if he lost developmental time and that's the issue, wouldn't it stand to reasons he will get to the same point as he would have, but take longer to get there than many expected

[Krylian]

Yes? He's only 21 and has barely played competitive games the last two years, it's not like his K rate has skyrocketed or anything. Him being around average is perfectly fine for his developmental path to this point.

 

Fair enough. I realize all those things but I guess I was just hoping that a prospect that was rated that high on the Top 100 list would be able to overcome those things and just get rolling again. But that's probably unfair.

[Benito]

So let me play devils advocate here...if he lost developmental time and that's the issue, wouldn't it stand to reasons he will get to the same point as he would have, but take longer to get there than many expected

 

This is how I see it. The tools are there, but the durability issues are a concern.

[Krylian]

This is how I see it. The tools are there, but the durability issues are a concern.

 

Pearson in the field.

[Laika]

So let me play devils advocate here...if he lost developmental time and that's the issue, wouldn't it stand to reasons he will get to the same point as he would have, but take longer to get there than many expected

 

It's possible but not a given. Punctuated experience is inferior to continuous experience for a bunch of different reasons.

[Benito]

Pearson in the field.

 

Merryweather also. f***, that guy might put up Eric Gagne numbers if he could ever stay healthy.

[vaff]

It’s worth noting that Moreno and Adley Rutschman are at the same level. Moreno is over two years younger, and he’s significantly outperforming Rutschman. And Rutschman is having a damn good season. Moreno is likely to skyrocket in rankings if he keeps this up.

[THANOS]

It’s worth noting that Moreno and Adley Rutschman are at the same level. Moreno is over two years younger, and he’s significantly outperforming Rutschman. And Rutschman is having a damn good season. Moreno is likely to skyrocket in rankings if he keeps this up.

 

Is Rutschman a Top 10 rank? Moreno looks like one to me.

[Laika]

Is Rutschman a Top 10 rank? Moreno looks like one to me.

 

Francisco Mejia was a consensus top 20 guy and ranked as high as 11th and 5th overall, so Moreno should be extremely high

[vaff]

Is Rutschman a Top 10 rank? Moreno looks like one to me.

 

Rutschman is considered by a lot of people to be the #2 prospect in baseball.

[Benito]

Rutschman is projected as a plus defender. 2 way catchers are hard to come by. Moreno I think, is projected to have average at best defence. His value will come from his bat.

[THANOS]

Francisco Mejia was a consensus top 20 guy and ranked as high as 11th and 5th overall, so Moreno should be extremely high

 

And the 188 wRc+ (will go up after today's game) is much higher than Meija's age 21 AA season.

 

He has to be Too 10.

 

Rutschman is considered by a lot of people to be the #2 prospect in baseball.

 

I know it's only 27 games but he's dominating and showing no signs of slowing. K rate only 17% which is not bad at all, especially for his age.

[Orgfiller]

Wander Franco is 20 years old and has a 154 wRC+ in AAA with a minuscule K rate and great power numbers. I don't care that Taylor Walls is also good, it is an absolute travesty that this guy has yet to debut in the bigs.

[Laika]

Rutschman is projected as a plus defender. 2 way catchers are hard to come by. Moreno I think, is projected to have average at best defence. His value will come from his bat.

 

Moreno is probably more athletic than Rutschman though. And two years younger. He might have a chance of being the more well rounded player, all things considered, even if Rutschman is a captain behind the plate and all that s***

[Laika]

Scouted defense for catchers is f***ing garbage anyway. It's just a massive arm strength bias.

 

Danny Jansen was billed as a bat first prospect. Remember? That seems absurd now, he's the exact opposite.

[Benito]

Moreno is probably more athletic than Rutschman though. And two years younger. He might have a chance of being the more well rounded player, all things considered, even if Rutschman is a captain behind the plate and all that s***

 

I would love for that to happen. Moreno has definitely taken a huge leap this year. But Rutschman is still deserved the superior catching prospect. His plate discipline is also something I don't think Moreno will ever match.

[vaff]

I mean, I don’t know how exactly we’re supposed to grade the defense of minor league catchers, right now. But fwiw, Moreno has zero errors this year, zero passed balls, and has thrown out 13 of 30 baserunners(43%).

[Laika]

I would love for that to happen. Moreno has definitely taken a huge leap this year. But Rutschman is still deserved the superior catching prospect. His plate discipline is also something I don't think Moreno will ever match.

 

Yeah I'm taking Adley, didn't mean to imply that Gabe is a better prospect. I just wanted to express that Gabe has a non zero chance of being the better player to show how steep his ascent has been

[Benito]

I mean, I don’t know how exactly we’re supposed to grade the defense of minor league catchers, right now. But fwiw, Moreno has zero errors this year, zero passed balls, and has thrown out 13 of 30 baserunners(43%).

 

I don't either. I'm not a scout, nor do I have any credentials. I can only evaluate based on the scouting literature published. All that said, the gap has closed. At the beginning of the season, there's no way I could have imagined even discussing the merits for comparison between Moreno and Rutschman. It's exciting to dream, the Jays may potentially add an all-star calibre catcher to the young core, in the not too distant future.

[King]

Scouted defense for catchers is f***ing garbage anyway. It's just a massive arm strength bias.

 

Danny Jansen was billed as a bat first prospect. Remember? That seems absurd now, he's the exact opposite.

Player types are like that often. Brett Lawrie was supposed to be a big hitting 3B but ended up being an elite defensive 3B with an average bat. Kevin Pillar was comped to Reed Johnson when he was coming up.. crushed the minor leagues and was supposed to be a fringe corner outfielder. Cavan Biggio was drafted as a defensive minded 2B. I'm sure there is more.

[TwistedLogic]

It’s worth noting that Moreno and Adley Rutschman are at the same level. Moreno is over two years younger, and he’s significantly outperforming Rutschman. And Rutschman is having a damn good season. Moreno is likely to skyrocket in rankings if he keeps this up.

 

It's hard to say Moreno is significantly outperforming Rutschman. It's true he's been better and the biggest thing in his favor, like you said, is that he's younger. But Rutschman's numbers look incredibly clean. He's building his 164 wRC+ on a .304 BABIP and a 17.6% walk-rate, which is slightly higher than his 17.0% K-rate and lends to a .426 OBP. Those at least look like sustainable numbers.

 

Moreno's 188 wRC+ is built on a .415 BABIP. Despite his average being 81 points higher than Rutschman, his OBP is only 4 points higher because he only walks 7.4% of the time to his 17.4% K-rate. Now, I'm hoping the low walks are only a result of him finding so much success with the bat right now and that he'll develop that ability to take the free base when he realizes you can't always spray the ball all over the field at a > .400 BA clip, but there's also no reason to assume that will happen because he's got 764 plate appearances in the minors at this point and has never shown a sustained ability to draw walks. In fact, his current 7.4% walk-rate in 2021 is the highest of his career so far and is likely in part due to pitchers pitching around him out of fear of the elite bat-to-ball skills he seems to have fully unlocked this season.

 

That being said, Moreno's age alone gives him a massive leash and the fact that he plays at a premium position with a seemingly positive reputation as a defender and as an athlete means there is a massive amount of room for failure here. He'll definitely skyrocket up prospect lists.

[vaff]

Yeah I'm taking Adley, didn't mean to imply that Gabe is a better prospect. I just wanted to express that Gabe has a non zero chance of being the better player to show how steep his ascent has been

 

If they end up comparable at all, it’s a win for us. We’re comparing a 1st overall pick to a guy we signed for $25K. Imagine how annoyed Orioles fans would be if we signed a comparable player to their 1.1 pick for $25,000?

[vaff]

It's hard to say Moreno is significantly outperforming Rutschman. It's true he's been better and the biggest thing in his favor, like you said, is that he's younger. But Rutschman's numbers look incredibly clean. He's building his 164 wRC+ on a .304 BABIP and a 17.6% walk-rate, which is slightly higher than his 17.0% K-rate and lends to a .426 OBP. Those at least look like sustainable numbers.

 

Moreno's 188 wRC+ is built on a .415 BABIP. Despite his average being 81 points higher than Rutschman, his OBP is only 4 points higher because he only walks 7.4% of the time to his 17.4% K-rate. Now, I'm hoping the low walks are only a result of him finding so much success with the bat right now and that he'll develop that ability to take the free base when he realizes you can't always spray the ball all over the field at a > .400 BA clip, but there's also no reason to assume that will happen because he's got 764 plate appearances in the minors at this point and has never shown a sustained ability to draw walks. In fact, his current 7.4% walk-rate in 2021 is the highest of his career so far and is likely in part due to pitchers pitching around him out of fear of the elite bat-to-ball skills he seems to have fully unlocked this season.

 

That being said, Moreno's age alone gives him a massive leash and the fact that he plays at a premium position with a seemingly positive reputation as a defender and as an athlete means there is a massive amount of room for failure here. He'll definitely skyrocket up prospect lists.

 

I know what you mean. If these were major leaguers I would definitely agree. But in the minors babip can often just be a sign of a good hitter, as opposed to a lucky hitter. Mike Trout had ridiculous babip numbers in the minors (and really good ones in the majors). Acuna had ridiculous babip numbers. Tatis had really good babip numbers. Juan Soto, Vladdy — when he hit .400, etc.

 

On the other hand, walk rate in the minors can simply be a product of taking advantage of not very good pitchers that can’t throw the ball over the plate.

 

FWIW, Rutschman is averaging 4.165 p/pa, while Moreno is averaging 4.30.

[Benito]

The one certitude we can agree too is that this is not a bottom five farm system. haha. Was it Longenhagen who said this?

[TwistedLogic]

I know what you mean. If these were major leaguers I would definitely agree. But in the minors babip can often just be a sign of a good hitter, as opposed to a lucky hitter. Mike Trout had ridiculous babip numbers in the minors (and really good ones in the majors). Acuna had ridiculous babip numbers. Tatis had really good babip numbers. Juan Soto, Vladdy — when he hit .400, etc.

 

On the other hand, walk rate in the minors can simply be a product of taking advantage of not very good pitchers that can’t throw the ball over the plate.

 

FWIW, Rutschman is averaging 4.165 p/pa, while Moreno is averaging 4.30.

 

Solid points.

 

On a side note, you seem like a decent commenter. Forum says you joined in December but I haven't seen you around much. You should post more.

 

We could use more people that actually contribute to the discourse in a constructive way. Ratio of new posters being blithering idiots has always been too high on here.

[ShowtimeBelli]

Some AAA notes:

- Kevin Smith continue to succeed at the plate. 1-3, 2bb. OPS up to .985. Wrc+ up to 156. Strikeout percentage has come way down from last season. I think I'd like to see what this kid can do at the Major League level soon. If Rowdy is going to continue to not give us much, this seems like a possible move.

- Urena is on fire. Another 3 knocks today.

- Hobie Harris and Kirby Snead seem like interesting pen pieces that I wouldn't mind seeing what they are all about.